• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
• /
• v.33 no.4
• /
• pp.248-254
• /
• 2018

To assess the risk of V. parahaemolyticus infection caused by consumption of raw oysters in Korea, contamination levels during the retail-to-table route of oysters was modeled to predict V. parahaemolyticus growth based on temperature and time. The consumed amount data of the KNHANES and the standard recipe of RDA were applied. A consumption scenario for exposure assessment was developed and combined with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model. The estimated probability of illness from consumption of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in raw oysters during three separate months (April, October, and November) was $5.71{\times}10^{-5}$ (within the 5th and 95th percentile ranges of $2.71{\times}10^{-8}$ to $1.03{\times}10^{-4}$). The results of the quantitative microbial-risk assessment indicated that the major factors affecting the probability of illness were the initial contamination level at the retailer, the consumed amount, the prevalence of pathogenic strains [tdh or trh genes], and exposure temperature and time.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
• /
• v.25 no.9
• /
• pp.463-472
• /
• 2022

In this study, a microbial risk assessment was performed for the bacteria Vibrio parahaemolyticus, which causes a foodborne illness following the consumption of Jeotgal, a fermented seafood in South Korea. The assessment comprised of six stages: product, market, home, consumption, dose-response, and risk. The initial contamination level (IC) was calculated based on the prevalence of V. parahaemolyticus in 90 Jeotgal samples. The kinetic behavior of V. parahaemolyticus was described using predictive models. The data on transportation conditions from manufacturer to market and home were collected through personal communication and from previous studies. Data for the Jeotgal consumption status were obtained, and an appropriate probability distribution was established. The simulation models responding to the scenario were analyzed using the @RISK program. The IC of V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using beta distribution [Beta (1, 91)]. The cell counts during transportation were estimated using Weibull and polynomial models [δ = 1 / (0.0718 - 0.0097 × T + 0.0005 × T²)], while the probability distributions for time and temperature were estimated using Pert, Weibull, Uniform, and LogLogistic distributions. Daily average consumption amounts were assessed using the Pareto distribution [0.60284,1.32,Risk Truncate(0,155)]. The results indicated that the risk of V. parahaemolyticus infection through Jeotgal consumption is low in South Korea.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
• /
• v.37 no.3
• /
• pp.484-491
• /
• 2005

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) analyzes potential hazard of microorganisms on public health and offers structured approach to assess risks associated with microorganisms in foods. This paper addresses specific risk management questions associated with Staphylococcus aureus in kimbab and improvement and dissemination of QMRA methodology, QMRA model was developed by constructing four nodes from retail to table pathway. Predictive microbial growth model and survey data were combined with probabilistic modeling to simulate levels of S. aureus in kimbab at time of consumption, Due to lack of dose-response models, final level of S. aureus in kimbeb was used as proxy for potential hazard level, based on which possibility of contamination over this level and consumption level of S. aureus through kimbab were estimated as 30.7% and 3.67 log cfu/g, respectively. Regression sensitivity results showed time-temperature during storage at selling was the most significant factor. These results suggested temperature control under $10^{\circ}C$ was critical control point for kimbab production to prevent growth of S. aureus and showed QMRA was useful for evaluation of factors influencing potential risk and could be applied directly to risk management.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
• /
• v.50 no.6
• /
• pp.621-628
• /
• 2018

We developed a quantitative microbial risk assessment model for determning the effect of seasoning on Clostridium perfringens behavior in beef jerky under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. C. perfringens was not detected (<0.5 log CFU/g) in beef jerky samples (n=275), regardless of storage conditions or the presence of seasoning. Survival models of C. perfringens on beef jerky were developed as a function of temperature (10, 17, 25, and $35^{\circ}C$). Risk of C. perfringens due to the consumption of beef jerky was estimated with @RISK and FDA-iRISK. The probability of foodborne illness due to C. perfringens through consumption of seasoned, vacuum packed beef jerky was estimated to be $2.77{\times}10^{-16}$ per person per day. Overall, the risk of contamination of beef jerky with C. perfringens is very low.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.55 no.3
• /
• pp.105-111
• /
• 2013

Probability distribution of microbes in wastewater is a crucial factor to be determined for microbial risk assessment associated with its reuse. The objective of this study was to investigate probability distribution of an indicator microorganism in wastewater. Daily total coliform counts measured from nationwide wastewater treatment plants in 2010 by the Ministry of Environment were used for statistical analysis. Basic statistics and probability distributions were estimated in the three different spatial scales using the MS Excel software and FARD2006 model. Overall, wastewater from manure and livestock treatment plants demonstrated greater median coliform counts than from sewage and village treatment plants. Generalized logistic (GLO) and 2-parameter Weibull (WBU2) appeared to be the two probability distributions that fitted best for total coliform numbers in wastewater. The study results of microbial statistics and probability distributions would provide useful data for quantitative assessment of microbial risk from agricultural wastewater reuse.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.57 no.4
• /
• pp.21-29
• /
• 2015

Safety of reclaimed wastewater irrigation needs to be evaluated to promote public health. Quantitative microbial and toxic risk assessment was conducted to identify the level of risk for farmland workers who use reclaimed wastewater and groundwater in Jeju island. Microbial risk through inhalation and ingestion exposure was below acceptable level (less than $10^{-3}$) of $7.07{\times}10^{-6}$ for reclaimed wastewater and $9.99{\times}10^{-8}$ for groundwater irrigation worker. Aggregate exposure risk of Ni, As and Cu was most contributable to overall risk in both reclaimed wastewater and groundwater irrigation plot. High cumulative exposure risk was estimated through non-dietary soil ingestion and dermal contact of soil, due to the high concentration of As, Cu and Ni in farmland soil. Overall toxic risk was $2.68{\times}10^{-4}$ for reclaimed water and $2.39{\times}10^{-4}$ for groundwater irrigation, which could not meet acceptable toxic risk level of $10^{-6}$. Further efforts, such as provide personal protective equipments or public health education, need to be implicated to reduce adverse health risk.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
• /
• v.39 no.4
• /
• pp.565-575
• /
• 2019

This study evaluated Campylobacter jejuni risk in ground meat products. The C. jejuni prevalence in ground meat products was investigated. To develop the predictive model, survival data of C. jejuni were collected at $4^{\circ}C-30^{\circ}C$ during storage, and the data were fitted using the Weibull model. In addition, the storage temperature and time of ground meat products were investigated during distribution. The consumption amount and frequency of ground meat products were investigated by interviewing 1,500 adults. The prevalence, temperature, time, and consumption data were analyzed by @RISK to generate probabilistic distributions. In 224 samples of ground meat products, there were no C. jejuni-contaminated samples. A scenario with a series of probabilistic distributions, a predictive model and a dose-response model was prepared to calculate the probability of illness, and it showed that the probability of foodborne illness caused by C. jejuni per person per day from ground meat products was $5.68{\times}10^{-10}$, which can be considered low risk.

• Food Engineering Progress
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.56-63
• /
• 2009

The aim of this study was to control the outbreak of food pathogen through quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). We used Monte Calro Simulation (MCS) to predict contamination levels of Staphylococcus aureus on the raw materials, equipments and cook in Japanese restaurant located in Seoul. The result of sensitivity analysis showed that the most significant factor for the outbreak of food pathogen was consumption temperature and storage time. In shrimp and octopus sushi, 'consumption temperature' was the highest sensitivity value of 0.419 followed by 'storage time' of 0.374. To increase safety of sushi, consumers should have sushi as soon as possible after cooking. In sushi 'storage time after cooking' was determined as Critical Control Point (CCP). To determine Control Limit (CL), Scenario Analysis (SA) was carried out. In sushi, SA was carried out using storage time as a unit condition. Safety level of S. aureus was set lower than 5 log CFU/g. After 2 hr 'storage time' the number of S. aureus increased to 3.908 log CFU/g. Therefore, 'storage time' of sushi was set as CL in case of room temperature storage.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.57 no.4
• /
• pp.277-287
• /
• 2024

Water distribution system (WDS) is exposed to various water quality incidents during its operation. This study utilized Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to analyze the risk associated with potential virus intrusion in WDSs. Additionally, the study determined the location and operation of rechlorination facilities to minimize potential risk. In addition, water quality resilience was calculated to confirm that the chlorine concentration maintains within the target range (0.1-1.0 mg/L) during normal operation. Hydraulic analysis was performed using EPANET, while EPANET-MSX was linked to simulate the reactions between viruses and chlorine. The proposed methodology was applied to the Bellingham network in the United States, where rechlorination facilities capable of injecting chlorine concentrations ranging from 0.5 mg/L to 1.0 mg/L were considered. Results indicated that without rechlorination facilities, the Average risk was 0.0154. However, installing rechlorination facilities and injecting chlorine at a concentration of 1.0 mg/L could reduce the Average risk to 39.1%. It was observed that excessive chlorine injection through rechlorination facilities reduced water quality resilience. Consequently, a rechlorination facility with a concentration of 0.5 mg/L was selected, resulting in a reduction of approximately 20% in average risk. This study provides insights for designing rechlorination facilities to enhance preparedness against potential virus ingress in the future.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.91-99
• /
• 2011

Risk ranking must be determined for various hazards/food combinations to conduct microbial risk management effectively. Risk Ranger is a simple, easy-to-use calculation tool developed in Microsoft Excel and designed to rank the risk (low, medium, and high) for semi-quantitative microbial risk assessment. The user is required to answer 11 questions in Risk Ranger related to 1) severity of the hazard, 2) likelihood of a disease-causing dose of the hazard being present in the meal, and 3) the probability of exposure to the hazard in a defined time. This study determined the risk ranking for twenty three combinations of foodborne pathogens/potentially hazardous foods (PHFs) using a Risk Ranger. In this study, pathogenic E. coli in fresh cut produce salad was scored as 79, which was the highest rank among the 23 combinations of the foodborne pathogens and PHFs. On the other hand, zero risk was obtained with V parahaemolyticus in sushi, Salmonella in meat products and E. coli O157:H7 in hamburger patties. Although Risk Ranger is very simple method to rate the risk of foodborne pathogens and PHFs combination, the accuracy of result was mainly affected by the availability and accuracy of data in the literature. According to the result of literature review, the data are needed for contamination rate of raw materials, consumption amount/frequency of PHFs, and the effect of processing on pathogen. Risk ranking must be continuously revalidated with new data.