• Title/Summary/Keyword: Profit Model

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A Study on the Scoring Method for the Insurance Underwriting Using Generalized Linear Model (보험사 언더라이팅 기준 설정을 위한 스코어링 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chang-Soo;Kwon, Hyuk-Sung;Kim, Dong-Kwang
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.489-498
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    • 2009
  • Underwriting is the first step for the administration of an insurance contract, which may result in stable profitability or unexpected loss for insurance company. Adequacy of underwriting criteria determines underwriting result. Generally, quantitative scoring system is used for underwriting. Method of evaluating risk for the scoring system is summing up scores for risk factors of a potential policyholder in consideration. Scores for each risk factor is predetermined. Current business environment for insurance companies makes underwriting profit more important, which means that insurance companies need more efficient underwriting method. This study suggests a reasonable approach to estimate risk relativities based on generalized linear model. Real data were used to quantify risk levels of groups of insureds for the design of underwriting model. Finally, effects in business volume and profitability of reflecting estimated underwriting scoring system are explained.

Profitability of Options Trading Strategy using SVM (SVM을 이용한 옵션투자전략의 수익성 분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.46-54
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to develop and analyze the performance of a selective option straddle strategy based on forecasted volatility to improve the weakness of typical straddle strategy solely based on negative volatility risk premium. The KOSPI 200 option volatility is forecasted by the SVM model combined with the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. The selective straddle strategy enters option position only when the volatility is forecasted downwardly or sideways. The SVM model is trained for 2008-2014 training period and applied for 2015-2018 testing period. The suggested model showed improved performance, that is, its profit becomes higher and risk becomes lower than the benchmark strategies, and consequently typical performance index, Sharpe Ratio, increases. The suggested model gives option traders guidelines as to when they enter option position.

An Efficiency Analysis of Public Enterprises Using Bootstrap DEA (부트스트랩 DEA를 이용한 공기업 효율성 분석)

  • Park, Man Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.475-487
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    • 2015
  • This study measures the managerial efficiency of Korea's 14 public enterprises using bootstrap DEA in 2013. In addition, it examines the factors that affect on the bootstrap bias-corrected efficiency using truncated regression analysis. The results and implications of this study are as follows. First, using bootstrap DEA model analysis, the results showed that the mean technical efficiency was 0.3182, the mean pure technical efficiency was 0.4994 and the mean scale efficiency was 0.6585. The main cause of technical inefficiency was due to pure technical inefficiency. Second, rank test between technical efficiency of general DEA model and bootstrap DEA model was no significant difference under CRS and VRS assumption. Third, the main cause of the inefficiency in 11 DMUs among 14 DMUs were mainly due to the pure technology and three DMUs were because of the scale efficiency. Finally, in the truncated regression analysis, cost of labor, profit, sales, return of equity, and the number of employees appeared as factors affecting the scale efficiency at the 10% significance level.

The Effects of Research and Development Expenditure on the Firm Value: Focusing on the Portfolio's Excess Return

  • Choi, Shi Yeong;Kim, Kun Woo
    • Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.37-62
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    • 2017
  • To analyze the effects of R&D expenditure on the firm value of Korean firms, we classified portfolios based on R&D activity levels. After that, we conducted a time-series analysis to assess excess returns from the portfolios. To carry out such an analysis, an empirical analysis of excess returns in the capital market was performed by using the monthly earning rate of stocks from 2000 to 2013. The purpose of this research is to provide basic data on investment to stakeholders in the capital market by analyzing the effects of R&D on the firm value and to overcome scholarly limitations by offering a new model of analysis. The criteria for classifying the portfolios were based on R&D expenditure levels. The analysis models follow the Fama-French Three-Factor Model and the Carhart Four-Factor Model. The analyses results are as follows. Extrapolating monthly profit rates based on R&D expenditure levels, portfolios with low R&D expenditures showed higher earning rates than those with high R&D expenditures. This suggests that high R&D expenditures did not translate into high earning rates. The investor depreciates the R&D expenditures related profitability and the possibility of success in the market, leading to falls in stock prices and a failure to give a positive effect on the firm value. Our research differs from the previous investigations as we carried out an empirical analysis based on the actual investors' attitudes about R&D expenditures and how these can generate excess earnings. Our research results show that the data related to R&D expenditure are not reflected fully in the market.

A Study on Continuous Acceptance Factors of Smart Banking Service (스마트뱅킹 서비스의 지속적 수용요인에 관한 연구)

  • YAO, YING;You, Jae-Hyun;Park, Cheol
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.33-53
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    • 2013
  • In the 1st half of 2009, Hana Bank was first to launch the smart banking service in Korea and thereafter, the smart banking system spread rapidly within Korea. Until 2010, the users have reached about 2,610,000. So, for more profit, how to make the smart banking early-adopters continually use the service has became the key issue. But, there are only few researches on continuous acceptance of smart banking service now. The aim of this study is to find out factors influncing continuous acceptance of smart banking service and the appropriate model for it. After analyzing the market status of smart banking service, Security, Service Scalability and UI convenience were chosen to be the most important independent variables. And research model was designed based on Expectancy Disconfirmation Theory and Post Acceptance Model. To verify the model, a survey targeting at smart banking service users was implemented.

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A Stochastic Bilevel Scheduling Model for the Determination of the Load Shifting and Curtailment in Demand Response Programs

  • Rad, Ali Shayegan;Zangeneh, Ali
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.1069-1078
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    • 2018
  • Demand response (DR) programs give opportunity to consumers to manage their electricity bills. Besides, distribution system operator (DSO) is interested in using DR programs to obtain technical and economic benefits for distribution network. Since small consumers have difficulties to individually take part in the electricity market, an entity named demand response provider (DRP) has been recently defined to aggregate the DR of small consumers. However, implementing DR programs face challenges to fairly allocate benefits and payments between DRP and DSO. This paper presents a procedure for modeling the interaction between DRP and DSO based on a bilevel programming model. Both DSO and DRP behave from their own viewpoint with different objective functions. On the one hand, DRP bids the potential of DR programs, which are load shifting and load curtailment, to maximize its expected profit and on the other hand, DSO purchases electric power from either the electricity market or DRP to supply its consumers by minimizing its overall cost. In the proposed bilevel programming approach, the upper level problem represents the DRP decisions, while the lower level problem represents the DSO behavior. The obtained bilevel programming problem (BPP) is converted into a single level optimizing problem using its Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions. Furthermore, point estimate method (PEM) is employed to model the uncertainties of the power demands and the electricity market prices. The efficiency of the presented model is verified through the case studies and analysis of the obtained results.

Management Efficiency Analysis of Innovative Pharmaceutical Companies' Technological Innovation Activities (혁신형제약기업의 기술혁신활동에 대한 경영효율성 분석)

  • Lim, Hye Ryon;Min, Hyun-Ku
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.361-374
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the efficiency and productivity of technological innovation activities of companies certified as innovative pharmaceutical companies by the government to diagnose their competitiveness and derive measures to strengthen them. This study collected pharmaceutical input (R&D expenditures and number of employees) and output (sale, operating profit and patent) data between 2017 and 2019 for 38 innovative pharmaceutical companies. This study analyzed them using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, Tobit model and the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI). First, the DEA result of the innovative pharmaceutical companies show that between the value of the CCR model of the scale efficiency and the value of the BCC model to diagnose the internal operation efficiency is differences. Second, efficiency does not differ between corporate characteristics. Third, Tobit model shows that number of patents held have positive effects on efficiency. Forth, overall MPI is 0.89. This can be interpreted as the rate of TECI decreased 3%p and TCI has increased 4%p. The results of this study can be used as decision-making data for response strategies to improve efficiency by identifying the cause of inefficiency and presenting target values.

Dynamic Limit and Predatory Pricing Under Uncertainty (불확실성하(不確實性下)의 동태적(動態的) 진입제한(進入制限) 및 약탈가격(掠奪價格) 책정(策定))

  • Yoo, Yoon-ha
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.151-166
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    • 1991
  • In this paper, a simple game-theoretic entry deterrence model is developed that integrates both limit pricing and predatory pricing. While there have been extensive studies which have dealt with predation and limit pricing separately, no study so far has analyzed these closely related practices in a unified framework. Treating each practice as if it were an independent phenomenon is, of course, an analytical necessity to abstract from complex realities. However, welfare analysis based on such a model may give misleading policy implications. By analyzing limit and predatory pricing within a single framework, this paper attempts to shed some light on the effects of interactions between these two frequently cited tactics of entry deterrence. Another distinctive feature of the paper is that limit and predatory pricing emerge, in equilibrium, as rational, profit maximizing strategies in the model. Until recently, the only conclusion from formal analyses of predatory pricing was that predation is unlikely to take place if every economic agent is assumed to be rational. This conclusion rests upon the argument that predation is costly; that is, it inflicts more losses upon the predator than upon the rival producer, and, therefore, is unlikely to succeed in driving out the rival, who understands that the price cutting, if it ever takes place, must be temporary. Recently several attempts have been made to overcome this modelling difficulty by Kreps and Wilson, Milgram and Roberts, Benoit, Fudenberg and Tirole, and Roberts. With the exception of Roberts, however, these studies, though successful in preserving the rationality of players, still share one serious weakness in that they resort to ad hoc, external constraints in order to generate profit maximizing predation. The present paper uses a highly stylized model of Cournot duopoly and derives the equilibrium predatory strategy without invoking external constraints except the assumption of asymmetrically distributed information. The underlying intuition behind the model can be summarized as follows. Imagine a firm that is considering entry into a monopolist's market but is uncertain about the incumbent firm's cost structure. If the monopolist has low cost, the rival would rather not enter because it would be difficult to compete with an efficient, low-cost firm. If the monopolist has high costs, however, the rival will definitely enter the market because it can make positive profits. In this situation, if the incumbent firm unwittingly produces its monopoly output, the entrant can infer the nature of the monopolist's cost by observing the monopolist's price. Knowing this, the high cost monopolist increases its output level up to what would have been produced by a low cost firm in an effort to conceal its cost condition. This constitutes limit pricing. The same logic applies when there is a rival competitor in the market. Producing a high cost duopoly output is self-revealing and thus to be avoided. Therefore, the firm chooses to produce the low cost duopoly output, consequently inflicting losses to the entrant or rival producer, thus acting in a predatory manner. The policy implications of the analysis are rather mixed. Contrary to the widely accepted hypothesis that predation is, at best, a negative sum game, and thus, a strategy that is unlikely to be played from the outset, this paper concludes that predation can be real occurence by showing that it can arise as an effective profit maximizing strategy. This conclusion alone may imply that the government can play a role in increasing the consumer welfare, say, by banning predation or limit pricing. However, the problem is that it is rather difficult to ascribe any welfare losses to these kinds of entry deterring practices. This difficulty arises from the fact that if the same practices have been adopted by a low cost firm, they could not be called entry-deterring. Moreover, the high cost incumbent in the model is doing exactly what the low cost firm would have done to keep the market to itself. All in all, this paper suggests that a government injunction of limit and predatory pricing should be applied with great care, evaluating each case on its own basis. Hasty generalization may work to the detriment, rather than the enhancement of consumer welfare.

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Perception of Local Community on Forest Partnership in Indonesia: Expectation and Challenges - A Case of Forest Partnership between Forest Management Unit and local community in Lombok - (인도네시아의 산림 파트너십에 대한 지역주민의 인식: 기대와 도전 - 롬복 산림 파트너십 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Bae, Jae Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.105 no.3
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    • pp.366-376
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    • 2016
  • The "Forest Partnership" mechanism in Indonesia allows those with authority to manage forests, including Forest Management Units (KPH) and concession holders, to partner with local communities for forest management and profit sharing. The objective of this study is to identify the challenges that this new mechanism is facing and develop practical policy recommendations for its successful implementation. "Lombok Forest Partnership" is the first of its kind in Indonesia between Forest Management Unit (KPH) and a local community. The local community members participating in this partnership were surveyed for their expected outcomes, degree of their satisfaction about the process and profits sharing, as well as other factors affecting their participation. Respondents reported that they have obtained the information on Forest Partnership completely from KPH and NGO. Local peoples participated in Lombok Forest Partnership to improve their incomes, and recognized timber production as the most important income source with high possibility of success. However, timber production will require sizable initial capital investment for establishing nursery and other supporting activities, which cannot come from local communities lacking economic means. Thus, Forest Partnership would be difficult to succeed if KPH does not take the initiative to permit and promote local community to use special area and generate profits in their jurisdiction. KPH, in turn, can share the profits with local peoples. In this regard, KPH's leadership is the key factor in the success of Forest Partnership. However, KPH will need to cultivate their capacity to develop and implement income-generating business with local community. Although profit sharing ratio of timber and non-timber forest products among local community who participated in Lombok Forest Partnership was very high at 75%, and 90%, the level of satisfaction on profit sharing ratio was only average. The cooperative organized by the local community is also dealing with sensitive nature of allocating forest area internally among their members. Thus, keeping the principle of fairness, equity and transparency is the key for successful implementation of Forest Partnership mechanism. This first case of Forest Partnership can serve as a model for the future cases and provide the early lessons.

Development of the Performance Analysis Model Based on Research and Development Phases for Automated Construction Equipment (건설자동화 기계의 연구개발 단계에 따른 성능 분석 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Jeong-Ho;Kim, Young-Suk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.67-80
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    • 2008
  • Recently, automated construction machines have been developed for technically solving construction industry problems such as labor, productivity, qualify and the profit decrease. In spite of the importance of performance analysis in order to commercialize the automated construction machines, previous studies are mainly forced on developing hardware and software of automated construction machines. The primary objective of this research is to propose the performance analysis model of automated construction machines, which can measure productivity, quality and safety improvement rate based on the research and development phases, and to develop a performance analysis system, which enables performance evaluator to easily analyze the performance of the automated construction machines. Finally, it is anticipated that the effective use of the performance analysis model and computerized system would be able to develop the automated construction machines having high performance, and to establish the marketing strategy effectively in order to increase the possibility of commercialization of the developed construction machines.