• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of damages

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Damage detection of a cable-stayed bridge based on the variation of stay cable forces eliminating environmental temperature effects

  • Chen, Chien-Chou;Wu, Wen-Hwa;Liu, Chun-Yan;Lai, Gwolong
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.859-880
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to establish an effective methodology for the detection of instant damages occurred in cable-stayed bridges with the measurements of cable vibration and structural temperatures. A transfer coefficient for the daily temperature variation and another for the long-term temperature variation are firstly determined to eliminate the environmental temperature effects from the cable force variation. Several thresholds corresponding to different levels of exceedance probability are then obtained to decide four upper criteria and four lower criteria for damage detection. With these criteria, the monitoring data for three stay cables of Ai-Lan Bridge are analyzed and compared to verify the proposed damage detection methodology. The simulated results to consider various damage scenarios unambiguously indicate that the damages with cable force changes larger than ${\pm}1%$ can be confidently detected. As for the required time to detect damage, it is found that the cases with ${\pm}2%$ of cable force change can be discovered in no more than 6 hours and those with ${\pm}1.5%$ of cable force change can be identified in at most 9 hours. This methodology is also investigated for more lightly monitored cases where only the air temperature measurement is available. Under such circumstances, the damages with cable force changes larger than ${\pm}1.5%$ can be detected within 12 hours. Even though not exhaustively reflecting the environmental temperature effects on the cable force variation, both the effective temperature and the air temperature can be considered as valid indices to eliminate these effects at high and low monitoring costs.

Occurrence Probability of Freak Waves at Nearshore of Donghae Harbor in the East Sea (동해항 전면 해역에서의 Freak Waves 발생확률)

  • Ahn, Kyungmo;Oh, Chan Young;Jeong, Weon Mu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.258-265
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    • 2015
  • Over the last 20 years, freak waves have attracted many researchers because of their unexpected behaviors and damages on offshore structures and vessels in the ocean and coastal waters. Despite many researches on the causes, mechanisms and occurrence of freak waves, we have not reached consensus on the results of the researches. This paper presents the occurrence probability of freak waves based on the analysis of wave records measured at coastal waters of Donghae harbor in the East Sea. Three freak waves were found which satisfied conditions of m and $H_S{\geq}2.5m$ and $H_m/H_S{\geq}2$. The occurrence probabilities of freak waves were estimated from extreme distributions by Mori, Rayleigh and Ahn, and found to be on the orders of O($10^{-1}$), O($10^{-2}$), and O($10^{-3}$), respectively. The occurrence probabilities of freak waves measured from waves records were estimated between O($10^{-2}$) and O($10^{-3}$), which were located between predictions by Rayleigh and Ahn's extreme probability distributions. However, we need more analysis of wave records obtained from diverse field conditions in order to verify the accuracy of the estimation of occurrence probability of freak waves.

Cost and reliability of retrofit alternatives for schools located on seismic zones

  • De Leon-Escobedo, David;Garcia-Manjarrez, Jose Luis
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.505-514
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    • 2021
  • A formulation based on structural reliability and cost effectiveness is proposed to provide recommendations to select the best retrofit strategy for schools with reinforced concrete frames and masonry walls, among three proposed alternatives. The cost calculation includes the retrofit cost and the expected costs of failure consequences. Also, the uncertainty of the seismic hazard is considered for each school site. The formulation identifies the potential failure modes, among shear and bending forces for beams, and flexure-compression forces for columns, for each school, and the seismic damages suffered by the schools after the earthquake of September 17, 2017 are taken into account to calibrate the damaged conditions per school. The school safety level is measured through its global failure probability, instead of only the local failure probability. The proposed retrofit alternatives are appraised in terms of the cost/benefit balance under future earthquakes, for the respective site seismic hazard, as opposed to the current practice of just restoring the structure original resistance. The best retrofit is the one that corresponds to the minimum value of the expected life cycle cost. The study, with further developments, may be used to develop general recommendations to retrofit schools located at seismic zones.

Annual Loss Probability Estimation of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames(SMRFs) using Seismic Fragility Analysis (지진취약도를 통한 철골모멘트골조의 연간 손실 평가)

  • Jun, Saemee;Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.517-524
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    • 2014
  • The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.

Recurrence plot entropy for machine defect severity assessment

  • Yan, Ruqiang;Qian, Yuning;Huang, Zhoudi;Gao, Robert X.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.299-314
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents a nonlinear time series analysis technique for evaluating machine defect severity, based on the Recurrence Plot (RP) entropy. The RP entropy is calculated from the probability distribution of the diagonal line length in the recurrence plot, which graphically depicts a system's dynamics and provides a global picture of the autocorrelation in a time series over all available time-scales. Results of experimental studies conducted on a spindle-bearing test bed have demonstrated that, as the working condition of the bearing deteriorates due to the initiation and/or progression of structural damages, the frequency information contained in the vibration signal becomes increasingly complex, leading to the increase of the RP entropy. As a result, RP entropy can serve as an effective indicator for defect severity assessment of rolling bearings.

Dispute Mediation Cases and Suggestions for Calculating Compensation for Dust Damage (먼지 피해의 환경분쟁조정 사례 분석과 배상액 산정안 제언)

  • Jeong-Ho Park
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.32 no.10
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    • pp.693-701
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we analyzed 82 dust damage dispute mediation cases over the past 5 years and evaluated cases where the probability of damage was verified through dust concentration measurement, modeling prediction, and chemical composition analysis. The cause of dust damage was a construction site, which accounted for most of the damage (97%), and was closely related to the distance from the construction site, total floor area of the construction site, and construction duration. Compensation was decided in only 33% of dust damage cases, and in only 6% (five cases) were damages determined using scientific techniques such as dust measurement, and forecasting. The main criteria for determining compensation were whether administrative measures were taken and evidence of damage in the form of videos and photos. In the future, measuring or model for the amount of dust damage is necessary to determine whether the limit has been exceeded and to revise the standard for calculating compensation through various lines of evidence of dust damage.

Reliability analysis of braced frames subjected to near field ground motions

  • Sistani, Asma;Asgarian, Behrouz;Jalaeefar, Ali
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.733-751
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    • 2013
  • Near field ground motions have caused several structural damages in recent decades. As a result, seismic codes are being updated with related requirements. In this paper a comparative study on the seismic behavior of concentrically braced frames (CBFs) designed based on different seismic codes is performed. Reliability of various frames with different heights and bracing types are analyzed based on the results of "Incremental Dynamic Analysis" (IDA) under near field ground motions. Fragility curves corresponding to IO (Immediate Occupancy) and CP (Collapse Prevention) limit states are extracted based on IDA curves. Results imply that, frames designed based on the near field seismic design criteria of UBC-97 are more reliable under near field ground motions and their failure probability is less comparing to others.

The effect of wear on the damage of slitting knife (Slitting Knife의 손상에 미치는 마모의 영향)

  • Nam, Ki-Woo;Kim, Cheol-Soo;Ahn, Seok-Hwan
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2016
  • This study analyzed the damage to a slitting knife after cutting steel sheets. Damages to the structure were observed and wear tests were conducted. In addition, the degradation on the damaged and undamaged parts was compared with a micro Vickers hardness test. Weibull statistical analysis was carried out in order to evaluate the reliability of the micro Vickers hardness measured data. Spalling of the edge portion occurred by degradation during use over a long period. Rough parts in the specimens were caused by damage because the slitting knife was used for 1 year. The friction coefficient and wear loss at the damaged parts of the knife edge were slightly larger from shock due to repetitive cutting operation. The micro Vickers hardness followed a two-parameter Weibull probability distribution.

Seismic Scenario Simulation and Its Applications on Risk Management in Taiwan

  • Yeh, Chin-Hsun
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.02b
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2009
  • This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.

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Peak force control in the milling process (엔드밀 공정에서 최대 절삭력 제어)

  • 김홍겸;이건복
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 2001.04a
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    • pp.188-191
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    • 2001
  • Generally, main factors of tool damage are cutting speed, feed rate and depth of cut. The increase of those factors can cause tool breakage or worsen product quality such as machining accuracy deterioration. Those three factors are concerned with cutting force. Cutting force reaches at its maximum value when cutter blade cuts away the object directly, and it is the time when tool damages are at high probability. In this study, we detect the maximum cutting force affecting tool damage and control the maximum cutting force based on the measured peak force.

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