• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.437-447
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• 2018

Computational cost is one of the major obstacles for detailed risk analysis of structures. This paper puts forward a methodology for efficient probabilistic seismic loss assessment of structures using the Endurance Time (ET) analysis and the first-order reliability method (FORM). The ET analysis efficiently yields the structural responses for a continuous range of intensities through a single response-history analysis. Taking advantage of this property of ET, FORM is employed to estimate the annual rate of exceedance for the loss components. The proposed approach is an amalgamation of two analysis approaches, ET and FORM, that significantly lower the computational costs. This makes it possible to evaluate the seismic risk of complex systems. The probability distribution of losses due to the structural and non-structural damage as well as injuries and fatalities of a prototype structure are estimated using the proposed methodology. This methodology is an alternative to the prevalent risk analysis framework of the total probability theorem. Hence, the risk estimates of the proposed approach are compared with those from the total probability theorem as a benchmark. The results indicate a satisfactory agreement between the two methods while a significantly lower computational demand for the proposed approach.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.121-129
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• 2012

All contemporary seismic Codes have adopted smooth design acceleration response spectra, which have derived by statistical analysis of many elastic response spectra of natural accelerograms. The above smooth design spectra are characterized by two main branches, an horizontal branch that is 2.5 times higher than the peak ground acceleration, and a declining parabolic branch. According to Eurocode EN/1998, the period range of the horizontal, flat branch is extended from 0.1 s, for rock soils, up to 0.8 s for softer ones. However, from many natural recorded accelerograms of important earthquakes, the real spectral amplification factor appears to be much higher than 2.5 and this means that the spectrum leads to an unsafe seismic design of the structures. This point is an issue open to question and it is the object of the present study. In the present paper, the spectral amplification factor of the smooth design acceleration spectra is re-calculated on the grounds of a known "reliability index" for a desired probability of exceedance. As a pilot scheme, the seismic area of Greece is chosen, as it is the most seismically hazardous area in Europe. The accelerograms of the 82 most important earthquakes, which have occurred in Greece during the last 38 years, are used. The soil categories are taken into account according to EN/1998. The results that have been concluded from these data are compared with the results obtained from other strong earthquakes reported in the World literature.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.497-510
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• 2011

A levee height is determined by adding a deterministic freeboard to a flood water level in Korea. In the USA, a levee height is determined by choosing a value conditionally among the freeboard criteria and the levels resulted from a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method adopts a conditional non-exceedance probability (CNP) which is the probability that the target stage will not be exceeded given a specific flood event. The purpose of the study is to compare Korean criterion for levee height estimation with that of the USA. Levee heights were determined according to the above two criteria at twenty-five cross sections in five streams. The results show that Korean criterion on average yields levee heights 20 cm higher than those calculated by the criterion of the USA. The larger the flood discharges become, the higher the levee height differences are usually. It is caused by the freeboard estimation criterion of Korea that the larger design flood is, the higher freeboard is given. Korean criterion, however, resulted in lower levee heights for smaller streams than those by the criterion of the USA. To sum it up, the Korean levee height criteria can result in overestimation or underestimation depending on flood discharge amount, being compared with the criteria of the USA. The Korean freeboard especially needs to be increased for smaller flood discharges.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.699-706
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• 2014

The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.11-26
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• 1997

It has knows that the seismicity of the Korean Peninsula is relatively inactive than those of adjacent northern China and southwestern Japan. Recently the review of long term historical records and recent seismicity. In addition, it is considered that the modern society is more vulnerable to seismic hazard because of high urbanization and industrialization. From this viewpoint, the improvement and modification of the present regulation for aseismic design is strongly proposed. The purpose of the present study is to prepare seismic hazard maps for Korea to be used in improving the present regulation. The present study was performed as a cooperative project of eight Korean seismologists. Each seismologist calculated independently seismic hazard value at the given grid points based on his own judgement about methodology and seismicity. Then the values are unified with equal weight to produce a seismic hazard map. Seven seismic hazard maps for peak acceleration with 10 percentile probability of exceedance in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, 500 years are presented. This probability of exceedancd in such years corresponds to return period of 48, 95, 190, 475, 950, 2373, 4747 years, respectively. It is recommended to use a hazard map to be selected on the basis of the importance and the design level of structures.

• Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.185-194
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• 2018

In this study, the extreme sloshing pressure was predicted using various statistical models: three-parameter Weibull distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, generalized extreme value distribution, and three-parameter log-logistic distribution. The estimation of sloshing impact pressure is important in design of liquid cargo tank in severe sea state. In order to get the extreme values of local impact pressures, a lot of model tests have been carried out and statistical analysis has been performed. Three-parameter Weibull distribution and generalized Pareto distribution are widely used as the statistical analysis method in sloshing phenomenon, but generalized extreme value distribution and three-parameter log-logistic distribution are added in this study. Additionally, statistical distributions are fitted to peak pressure data using three different parameter estimation methods. The data were obtained from a three-dimensional sloshing model text conducted at Seoul National University. The loading conditions were 20%, 50%, and 95% of tank height, and the analysis was performed based on the measured impact pressure on four significant panels with large sloshing impacts. These fittings were compared by observing probability of exceedance diagrams and probability plot correlation coefficient test for goodness-of-fit.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.20-30
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• 2023

Modeling a nonlinear ocean wave is one of the primary concerns in ocean engineering and naval architecture to perform an accurate numerical study of wave-structure interactions. The high-order spectral (HOS) method, which can simulate nonlinear waves accurately and efficiently, was investigated to see its capability for nonlinear wave generation. An open-source (distributed under the terms of GPLv3) project named "HOS-ocean" was used in the present study. A parametric study on the "HOS-ocean" was performed with three-hour simulations of long-crested ocean waves. The considered sea conditions ranged from sea state 3 to sea state 7. One hundred simulations with fixed computational parameters but different random seeds were conducted to obtain representative results. The influences of HOS computational parameters were investigated using spectral analysis and the distribution of wave crests. The probability distributions of the wave crest were compared with the Rayleigh (first-order), Forristall (second-order), and Huang (empirical formula) distributions. The results verified that the HOS method could simulate the nonlinearity of ocean waves. A set of HOS computational parameters was suggested for the long-crested irregular wave simulation in sea states 3 to 7.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.49-58
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• 2022

The 2017 Pohang earthquake caused severe damage to low-rise piloti buildings. The damage was caused mainly by column shear failure, and some core walls were as well. The damaged piloti buildings in Pohang City could be relieved if they were designed correctly according to the standards at that time. However, the post-earthquake investigation revealed design, construction, and permission problems. To solve the problems, the Piloti Building Structure Design Guidelines that include strict specifications were published in 2018. Separately, KDS 41 17 00, the seismic design standard for buildings, was enacted in 2019 and it included the guideline contents. Therefore, at least after the publication of the guidelines, piloti buildings, designed by the standard and guidelines, can be expected to possess better seismic performance than existing piloti buildings. To confirm this, the probability of exceedance for several damage state thresholds was estimated for existing and designed piloti buildings. As a result, the probability of damage of designed piloti buildings was very low compared to existing ones. Consequently, it was confirmed that the guideline and standard adequately supplement the structural fragility of existing piloti buildings.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.233-251
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• 2011

The seismic provisions of the current edition (2005) of the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) differ significantly from the earlier edition. The current seismic provisions are based on the uniform hazard spectra corresponding to 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, as opposed to the seismic hazard level with 10% probablity of exeedance in 50 years used in the earlier edition. Moreover, the current code is presented in an objective-based format where the design is performed based on an acceptable solution. In the light of these changes, an assessment of the expected performance of the buildings designed according to the requirements of the current edition of NBCC would be very useful. In this paper, the seismic performance of a set of six, twelve, and eighteen story buildings of regular geometry and with concrete moment resisting frames, designed for Vancouver western Canada, has been evaluated. Although the effects of non-structural elements are not considered in the design, the non-structural elements connected to the lateral load resisting systems affect the seismic performance of a building. To simulate the non-structural elements, infill panels are included in some frame models. Spectrum compatible artificial ground motion records and scaled actual accelerograms have been used for evaluating the dynamic response. The performance has been evaluated for each building under various levels of seismic hazard with different probabilities of exceedance. From the study it has been observed that, although all the buildings achieved the life-safety performance as assumed in the design provisions of the building code, their performance characteristics are found to be non-uniform.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.265-271
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• 2015

The tsunami hazard analysis is performed for testing the application of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis to nuclear power plant sites in the Korean Peninsula. Tsunami hazard analysis is based on the seismic hazard analysis. Probabilistic method is adopted for considering the uncertainties caused by insufficient information of tsunamigenic fault sources. Logic tree approach is used. Uljin nuclear power plant (NPP) site is selected for this study. The tsunamigenic fault sources in the western part of Japan (East Sea) are used for this study because those are well known fault sources in the East Sea and had several records of tsunami hazards. We have performed numerical simulations of tsunami propagation for those fault sources in the previous study. Therefore we use the wave parameters obtained from the previous study. We follow the method of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) suggested by the atomic energy society of Japan (AESJ). Annual exceedance probabilities for wave height level are calculated for the site by using the information about the recurrence interval, the magnitude range, the wave parameters, the truncation of lognormal distribution of wave height, and the deviation based on the difference between simulation and record. Effects of each parameters on tsunami hazard are tested by the sensitivity analysis, which shows that the recurrence interval and the deviation dominantly affects the annual exceedance probability and the wave heigh level, respectively.