• Title/Summary/Keyword: Option price

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Volatilities in the Won-Dollar Exchange Markets and GARCH Option Valuation (원-달러 변동성 및 옵션 모형의 설명력에 대한 고찰)

  • Han, Sang-Il
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.12
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    • pp.369-378
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    • 2013
  • The Korean Won-Dollar exchange markets showed radical price movements in the late 1990s and 2008. Therefore it provides good sources for studying volatility phenomena. Using the GARCH option models, I analysed how the prices of foreign exchange options react volatilities in the foreign exchange spot prices. For this I compared the explanatory power of three option models(Black and Scholes, Duan, Heston and Nandi), using the Won-Dollar OTC option markets data from 2006 to 2013. I estimated the parameters using MLE and calculated the mean square pricing errors. According to the my empirical studies, the pricing errors of Duan, Black and Scholes models are 0.1%. And the pricing errors of the Heston and Nandi model is greatest among the three models. So I would like to recommend using Duan or Black and Scholes model for hedging the foreign exchange risks. Finally, the historical average of spot volatilities is about 14%, so trading the options around 5% may lead to serious losses to sellers.

Valuation on the Photovoltaic Core Material Technology Using Black-Scholes Model: a Company's Case Study (블랙숄즈모형을 적용한 태양광 핵심소재 기술가치평가: 기업사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Dong-Su;Jeong, Ki-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.578-598
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    • 2011
  • This study estimates the value of photovoltaic core material technology, which is getting attention as a clean energy source. The estimation is based on the real option pricing model (ROPM). This study has two main contributions. The first is in the methodology. The process of modeling volatility, which is the most complicated stage in ROPM, is greatly simplified by using the stock price as a covariate representing the volatility of the real option's basic asset. The second contribution is the application of technology. In this study, the economic value of poly-silicon, a core material in the photovoltaic industry and recently surging in demand, is evaluated as a manufacturing technology. In a case study of a company in the photovoltaic industry, the stochastic process of a basic asset follows geometric Brownian motion (GBM), and the option value of firm A's poly-silicon manufacturing technology is estimated at 3.4 trillion won.

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Economic Evaluation for Korea Type of 300 MW IGCC Demonstration Plant Technology Development Project (실물옵션을 활용한 한국형 300 MW급 IGCC 실증플랜트 기술개발사업의 경제성 분석)

  • Eom, Su-Jeong;Nam, Young-Sik
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2012
  • The study aims to analyze economic viability of Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle, an innovative technology to utilize clean coal effectively and efficiently in the era of energy crisis. The study is conducted to evaluate business value of 300 MW IGCC demonstration plant technology development based on binomial option, in consideration of uncertainty of fuel price. Binomial option is one of the real option valuation methods, which is ideally suited to irreversible decision making under uncertainty. With this analysis, it shows that investment value is higher compared with economic evaluation based on discounted cash flow, since this method can measure quantity. As a result, this study is proved to be economically feasible, which have a positive impact on the next generation of IGCC and the connection with Carbon Capture and Storage.

ESTABLISHMENT OF CDM PROJECT ADDITIONALITY THROUGH ECONOMIC INDICATORS

  • Kai. Li.;Robert Tiong L. K.;Maria Balatbat ;David Carmichael
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.272-275
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    • 2009
  • Carbon finance is the investment in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction projects in developing countries and countries with economies in transition within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or Joint Implementation (JI) and with creation of financial instruments, i.e., carbon credits, which are tradable in carbon market. The additional revenue generated from carbon credits will increase the bankability of projects by reducing the risks of commercial lending or grant finance. Meantime, it has also demonstrated numerous opportunities for collaborating across sectors, and has served as a catalyst in bringing climate issues to bear in projects relating to rural electrification, renewable energy, energy efficiency, urban infrastructure, waste management, pollution abatement, forestry, and water resource management. Establishing additionality is essential for successful CDM project development. One of the key steps is the investment analysis. As guided by UNFCCC, financial indicators such as IRR, NPV, DSCR etc are most commonly used in both Option II & Option III. However, economic indicator such as Economic Internal Rate of Return(EIRR) are often overlooked in Option III even it might be more suitable for the project. This could be due to the difficulties in economic analysis. Although Asian Development Bank(ADB) has given guidelines in evaluating EIRR, there are still large amount of works have to be carried out in estimating the economic, financial, social and environmental benefits in the host country. This paper will present a case study of a CDM development of a 18 MW hydro power plant with carbon finance option in central Vietnam. The estimation of respective factors in EIRR, such as Willingness to Pay(WTP), shadow price etc, will be addressed with the adjustment to Vietnam local provincial factors. The significance of carbon finance to Vietnam renewable energy development will also be addressed.

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An Urbanization Effect of Ruralto-Urban Land Conversion Under the Uruguay Round Agricultural Free Trade Policy : The Case of Korea (UR농산물개방에 따른 도.농 토지전용의 공간적 파급효과)

  • 최막중
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.61-78
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    • 1995
  • This study begins with a question of what spatial impact international trade policy would have following the Uruguay Round, particularly focusing on agricultural trade liberalization in Korea. Based upon the neoclassical urban economic model, it first identifies the channel in which agricultural market opening can ultimately affect both rural and urban are as; $\circled1$ Free trade will depress domestic price of agricultural products, $\circled2$ which will in turn depreciate agricultural land price. $\circled3$ The decrease in marginal supply cost for urban land will then facilitate urban sprawl, provided that the government relaxes restrictions on urban-rural land conversion. Theoretical analysis is further refined by empirical considerations that distinguish agricultural land value solely for production purpose from that for future urban, uses, and that distinguish the urbanization effect caused by the fall in the supply cost of urban land from that caused by the existing high level of demand. Utilizing the estimate of bid-price for paddy field derived from the revenue-cost relationship of rice production, simulation results show that the urban-rural boundary under trade liberalization can expand outward up to 70-85km radius in the Seoul metropolitan area, suggesting the emergency of a metropolis or even a megalopolis which extends from Seoul to the central part of the country. Since the geographic extent of urbanization effect can vary depending upon the urban spatial structure, however, it is recommended that the redevelopment option in the built - up area should always be tied up with the issue of whether to deregulate rural-to-urban land conversion.

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Pricing Strategy within the U.S. Streaming Services Market: A Focus on Netflix's Price Plans

  • Kweon, Heaji J;Kweon, Sang Hee
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2021
  • Online streaming wars are intensifying. Netflix is known as the market leader in the streaming business. However, since 2019, Netflix has been losing subscribers in the United States and is at a turning point where it needs to reassess its current position in the market. While Netflix is losing dominance, rivals Amazon Prime and Hulu continue to gain market shares. Studies from Deloitte and PricewaterhouseCoopers indicated a new shift in the streaming landscape caused by the abundance of streaming options and rising subscription costs. Recent surveys showed that consumers are excited about new streaming services, such as Disney +. Nearly two-thirds of consumers intend to terminate or downgrade one or more of their current subscriptions to make room for a new service. Moreover, it seems that consumers want ad-supported options. In Deloitte's latest Digital Media Trends survey, 65% responded that they would watch ads to eliminate or reduce subscription costs. Seventy percent of Hulu's subscribers choose its lower-priced ad-supported plan. NBC recently launched its own streaming service, Peacock, with a free ad-supported option. This opposes Netflix's brand identity of "no ads" and premium differentiation. With increasing pressure from competition and the growing risk of subscriber loss, Netflix needs to diversify its price plans. The company could try implementing the lower-priced mobile-only plan they are currently testing or plan to test in other regions. Netflix should also consider features or benefits for loyal subscribers to maintain a stronger consumer base.

An Option Pricing Model for the Natural Resource Development Projects (해외자원개발사업 평가를 위한 옵션가격 결정모형 연구)

  • Lee, In-Suk;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.735-761
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    • 2004
  • As a possible alternative to Traditional Discounted Cash Flow Method, "Option Pricing Model" has drawn academic attentions for the last a few decades. However, it has failed to replace traditional DCF method practically due to its mathematical complexity. This paper introduces an option pricing valuation model specifically adjusted for the natural resource development projects. We add market information and industry-specific features into the model so that the model remains objective as well as realistic after the adjustment. The following two features of natural resource development projects take central parts in model construction; product price is a unique source of cash flow's uncertainty, and the projects have cost structure from capital-intense industry, in which initial capital cost takes most part of total cost during the projects. To improve the adaptability of Option Pricing Model specifically to the natural resource development projects, we use Two-Factor Model and Long-term Asset Model for the analysis. Although the model introduced in this paper is still simple and reflects limited reality, we expect an improvement in applicability of option pricing method for the evaluation of natural resource development projects can be made through the process taken in this paper.

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A Study for New Equity Compensation Alternative for Startups and Venture to Solid Staffing and Team Building in Korea: Focusing on Restricted Stock Units (스타트업과 벤처기업의 우수인력유치 위한 주식연계형 보상방안연구: 양도제한조건부주식(RSU) 도입 중심으로)

  • Hwangbo, Yun;Yang, Youngseok
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • Strong Critics of' Moral Hazard, due to plummeting severely their stock price down and damage falling on plain investor, has been skyrocketed against massively and simultaneously exercising stock option right of C-Level members in Stock market listed startups right after IPO regardless of proper and legal process followed. Korean Financial Supervisory Board initiate new act of extending to apply'Lock-up Rule'even to stock option of core interest group after IPO. However, it will cause startups and venture more difficulties to recruit top level of talented staffs. This paper aims to propose RSU(Restricted Stock Unit) as alternative to breakthrough the current deadlock issue with respect to stock option controversy many startups facing. This paper to meet goal, first, including Korean introducing status of RSU, it clarify the concept of RSU by comparing exploration with Restricted Stock and define characteristic of RSU by comparing Stock Option. Second, it bring more effective ways of startups introducing RSU in Korea overcoming its limitations and challenges. Third, it carry out FGI to legal expert deeply involved of introducing RSU in Korea at policy domain. FGI focus on defining core challenging factors and their level of huddles of introducing RSU in Korea with proposing breakthrough policies to landing RSU softly in Korea. Fourth, it suggest valid policies of introducing and stabilizing RSU in Korea completely. This paper expect some contributions Korean startups and venture on finding market friendly right breakthrough out of stock option dilemma currently in.

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An Empirical Study on Variables Affecting Warrant Pricing of Japan (Warrant 가격 결정변수에 관한 실증연구)

  • Dong-Hwan Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2000
  • Warrants are often described as call potions written tv firms on their own stock. However, a call option is a pure side bet; i.e., none of the cash flows associated with the call's sale or exercise involves the firm. Issuing warrants on the other hand, can affect the firm's aggregate level of investment, composition of its capital structure. and the price of the stock on which warrant can be exercised. The problem of the warrant pricing can be solved by using of multivariate data analysis techniques, such as regression analysis or discriminant analysis, instead of OPM. The value of this approach is that we can evlauate the relative importance of each independent variable which affect a price of a warrant. This study empirically examines the Japanese warrant pricing by multiple regression analysis using a sample or 300 observations traded on Tokyo Stock Exchange during the periods between 1995 and 1996.

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Long-Run Stock Price Performance of the Firms that Grant Stock Options and the Separation of Ownership and Management (소유경영기업과 전문경영기업의 스톡옵션 부여 후 장기성과 결정요인)

  • Jeong, Jae-Wook;Bae, Gil-S.
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.149-182
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    • 2007
  • This study examines the determinants of the long-run stock price performance of the firms that granted stock options between 1997 and 2002. We divide the sample into the firms run by the owner and those run by the professional manager. If the primary reason for granting stock options is reduction of the agency costs between the manager and shareholders, the effect of stock options is likely to be more pronounced in the firms run by the professional manager. We find that the long-run abnormal returns of the firms run by the professional manager are negatively associated with the shareholdings by the manager and the book-to-market value and are positively associated with the earnings growth and the size of the outstanding stock options. In contrast, the long-run abnormal returns of the firms run by the owner are negatively associated with the cash flows rate and the sales growth rate and are positively associated with the firm size. This is consistent with the argument that the agency costs arising from the conflicts between the manager and shareholders are an important determinant of the post-stock option granting long-run stock price performance only in the firms run by the professional manager. The results also suggest that stock options in the firms run by the owner are likely to be used for the purposes such as additional compensation, a signaling device, a means that reduce the agency costs within firms.

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