• 한국인구학
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.46-67
• /
• 1985

In this paper, an attempt has been made to examine the pattern of mortality in Korea during 1970~80. By applying the age-sex specific mortality rates quoted from 1978~79 life tables for Korea published by NBOS, EPB to those of the West pattern of regional model life tables and the far eastern pattern of model life tables for developing countries, life expectancy at birth were calculated. Also the author reviewed the trends of death rates, life expectancy and cause of death using vital registration data and other materials. Summarized results are as follows; 1. Crude death rates in Korea was reduced to one fifth in the 1983 compared to that in 1920's. Life expectancy also improved to almost double in 1985 compared to 1920's. But the difference in the life expectancy between male and female increased during that period and it was recorded as 6.4 years in 1985. This discrepancy was mainly due to the different tempo of decreasing in mortality level by sex, particularly, for the age 40 and above. 2. For the pattern of mortality in Korea, it showed that female mortality could accounted closer to the West pattern model life tables. There were high similarity between actual pattern prevalent in Korea and West pattern. And its coefficient of variance was also very low. However for the case of male, it was difficult to find the exact model life tables for explaining the actual situation on the male mortality pattern which means exist considerable dissimilarity in older ages. The Far eastern pattern of U.N. model life tables show better results than West pattern, however, the deviation of the pattern to actual was severe. Also in Far eastern pattern, high coefficient of variance was existed. Furthermore it was found in the paper that the mortality level of Korean male for the age 40 and above were much higher than that of Far eastern pattern which was reflected the high mortality of the male adult in Far east region. 3. The analysis of cause of death showed that circulatory disease such as cerebrovascular disease and hypertensive disease accounted for the leading cause of death in Korea for the age 40 and above. There should he paid special attention to chronic retrogressive diseases for the older age groups. For younger age groups, injury and poisoning were reported as important cause of death.

• 한국조사연구학회지:조사연구
• /
• 제12권2호
• /
• pp.1-26
• /
• 2011

초고령(80세 이상) 사망률에 대한 양적, 질적 자료의 결여는 한국의 초고령 사망률에 대한 체계적인 연구의 최대 걸림돌이 되어 왔다. 그러나 세계가 경험해 보지 못한 한국의 급속한 고령화는 미래의 인구구조의 근본적인 변화를 초래하게 되어 초고령 사망률의 수준, 패턴, 그리고 추이분석은 더 이상 미룰 수 없는 과제가 되었다. 사망률 추이는 80세 이상(80+) 또는 85세 이상(85+)로 절단된 형태의 과거 사망률 자료를 115세까지의 각 세별 사망률로 확장하여 분석될 수 있다. 이러한 확장은 한국형 표준사망률의 작성이 우선되어야 가능하며 이 표준사망률을 통해 한국의 초고령 사망률의 수준과 패턴의 파악이 가능해진다. 한국형 표준 사망률의 작성은 하나의 관계모형과 11개의 함수로부터 도출되며, 성별로 최적의 모형은 적합도를 측정하는 세 가지의 통계량과 사망률의 세 가지 일치성을 기준으로 선택되었다. 본 논문에서는 작성된 표준사망률을 이용하여 과거의 절단된 사망률을 확장하였고 이 확장 과정에서 필연적으로 발생하는 종단면적인 사망률의 일치성을 해결하는 방안을 제시하였다.

• 한국인구학
• /
• 제9권2호
• /
• pp.79-92
• /
• 1986

Death is one of the population movement phenomena used as an important health index in most society. Especially it is regarded as group phenomenon in a specific group rather than individual one and considered important in public health field because the level and cause of death is related to health of public. The auther examined the changes of the Korean mortality pattern to evaluate the status of the Korean public health by studying mortality indicator using the population census and other materials from 1930 to 1980. The results are as follows: First, the Korean crude death rate was reduced to one third in 1980 compared to that in 1930, but the crude birth rate was constant from 1930 to 1960 causing the increase of population. So the population pattern is changing from the classic pyramic shape to bell shape and the dependency ratio was reduced from 78 in 1930 to 61 in 1980. Second, the infant mortality rate decrease rapidly. In 1980 it was one seventh of that in 1930 which was proved by the change of the age-specific death rate curve from U to J shape. Third, the male mortality reduction after the age of forty was much less than that of female, which explained the specific death pattern of high mortality in Korean middle and oldaged males. Fourth, the main cause of death was changed from infectious, parasitic, respiratory and digestive system disease to circulatory of tumorous diseases. Considering the above results, Korean health problem is now changing from the infant infection to geriatric chronic regressive disease. That naturally the direction of health service should be turned from the infant stage maternal and child health to the health problems of old people.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제55권2호
• /
• pp.164-172
• /
• 2022

Objectives: We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016. Methods: In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used. Results: The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran's provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran's provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years. Conclusions: The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran's northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제31권4호
• /
• pp.604-615
• /
• 1998

Although previous studies revealed the association of physical activity with mortality rate, it is unclear whether there is a linear trend between physical activity and mortality rate. In this study, the association of physical activity with the risk of all-cause mortality was analysed using Cox's proportional hazard model for a cohort of 14,204 healthy Korean men aged 40-59 years followed up for 4 years(Jan. 1993-Dec. 1996). Physical activity and other life style were surveyed by a postal questionnaire in December 1992. Total of 14,204 subjects were grouped into quartiles by physical activity. Using death certificate data, 123 deaths were identified. The second most active quartile had a lowest mortality .ate with relative risk of 0.44(95% C.I. : 0.23-0.84) compared with most sedentary quartile, showing a J-shape pattern of physical activity-mortality curve. By examining the difference in proportion of cause of the death between most active quartile and the other quartiles, there was no significant difference of proportional mortality from cardiovascular deaths, cerebrovascular deaths or deaths from trauma. The covariates were stratified into two group between which the trend of RR was compared to test the effect modification. There was no remarkable effect modification by alcohol intake, smoking, body mass index, calorie consumption, percent fat consumption. In conclusion, moderate activity was found to have more protective effect on all-cause mortality than vigorous activity and that the J-shape pattern of physical activity-mortality curve was not due to the difference of mortality pattern or effect modification by alcohol intake, smoking, body mass index, calorie consumption and percent fat consumption.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제16권8호
• /
• pp.3579-3586
• /
• 2015

Geographic information system (GIS) technology has useful applications for epidemiology, enabling the detection of spatial patterns of disease dispersion and locating geographic areas at increased risk. In this study, we applied GIS technology to characterize the spatial pattern of mortality due to liver cancer in the autonomous region of Guangxi Zhuang in southwest China. A database with liver cancer mortality data for 1971-1973, 1990-1992, and 2004-2005, including geographic locations and climate conditions, was constructed, and the appropriate associations were investigated. It was found that the regions with the highest mortality rates were central Guangxi with Guigang City at the center, and southwest Guangxi centered in Fusui County. Regions with the lowest mortality rates were eastern Guangxi with Pingnan County at the center, and northern Guangxi centered in Sanjiang and Rongshui counties. Regarding climate conditions, in the 1990s the mortality rate of liver cancer positively correlated with average temperature and average minimum temperature, and negatively correlated with average precipitation. In 2004 through 2005, mortality due to liver cancer positively correlated with the average minimum temperature. Regions of high mortality had lower average humidity and higher average barometric pressure than did regions of low mortality. Our results provide information to benefit development of a regional liver cancer prevention program in Guangxi, and provide important information and a reference for exploring causes of liver cancer.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제28권2호
• /
• pp.119-134
• /
• 2021

Lung cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths in the world. Investigation of mortality rates is pivotal to adequately understand the determinants causing this disease, allocate public health resources, and apply different control measures. Our study aims to analyze and forecast age-specific US lung cancer mortality trends. We report functions of mortality rates for different age groups by incorporating functional principal component analysis to understand the underlying mortality trend with respect to time. The mortality rates of lung cancer have been higher in men than in women. These rates have been decreasing for all age groups since 1990 in men. The same pattern is observed for women since 2000 except for the age group 85 and above. No significant changes in mortality rates in lower age groups have been reported for both gender. Lung cancer mortality rates for males are relatively higher than females. Ten-year predictions of mortality rates depict a continuous decline for both gender with no apparent change for lower age groups (below 40).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제17권sup3호
• /
• pp.201-204
• /
• 2016

This study aimed to quantify associations of the human development inequality (HDI) index with incidence, mortality, and mortality to incidence ratios for eight common cancers among different countries. In this ecological study, data about incidence and mortality rates of cancers was obtained from the Global Cancer Project for 169 countries. HDI indices for the same countries was obtained from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) database. The concentration index was defined as the covariance between cumulative percentage of cancer indicators (incidence, mortality and mortality to incidence ratio) and the cumulative percentage of economic indicators (country economic rank). Results indicated that incidences of cancers of liver, cervix and esophagus were mainly concentrated in countries with a low HDI index while cancers of lung, breast, colorectum, prostate and stomach were concentrated mainly in countries with a high HDI index. The same pattern was observed for mortality from cancer except for prostate cancer that was more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. Higher MIRs for all cancers were more concentrated in countries with a low HDI index. It was concluded that patterns of cancer occurrence correlate with care disparities at the country level.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제14권6호
• /
• pp.3581-3585
• /
• 2013

Background: Accurate statistics on the cancer burden are essential, both for purposes of research and for setting priorities in healthcare management. So that in vast countries with partial registration coverage, such as Iran, local data are more useful. We here estimated the incidence, prevalence and mortality time trend of four major cancer site, lung, stomach, breast and prostate, over the period 2001-2010 and provided short-range projections to 2015 in Isfahan. Materials and Methods: Estimates were derived by applying the mortality-incidence analysis method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and project incidence, prevalence and mortality of chronic degenerative disease, starting from knowledge of mortality and relative survival information. Results: Age adjusted incidence, mortality and prevalence rates in Isfahan exhibited a clear upward trend for all four sites during the period 2001-2015, with marked increasees in prostate and breast predicted for the future. Difference in incidence trends between males and females might be attributable to the difference in risk factors specific to certain cancer sites, with smoking being the main risk factor. Conclusions: In this study, males and females displayed an increasing pattern for incidence and mortality rate over the entire study period until 2015. This information can be used as basis for planning healthcare management and allocating recourses in public health.

• 한국인구학
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.14-31
• /
• 1986

This study shows trends and age-sex patterns of mortality in Korea, based on adjusted death registration data during 1956∼1980. Description on the data-the types of errors and their methods of adjustment-are presented elsewhere (Kim, 1986). Crude death rates have declined in 20 years to 7.0 in 1976∼1980, almost half the level of 13.0 in 1956∼1960. Mortality of females declined faster than males, especially at older ages. Substantial differences in provincial mortality are observed based on the expectation of life at birth. The difference between the highest and the lowest provinces is 9.2 years for males and 8.3 years for females during 1976∼1980. This study presents two interesting features of age-sex patterns of mortality in Korea. One feature is higher female mortality than males during childhood periods. However, infant mortality is higher for males than for females throughout the period, though the difference is much smaller than is expected from various model life tables. Another feature is the rapid rise in mortality for males after age 40. This pattern is found to be existed throughout the period 1956∼1980. Further studies are recommended to establish its causal linkage to traditional sex role (as main bread winner) and health behavior (smoking and drinking) of males and recent rapid industrialization in Korea.