As a part of Load and Resistance Factor Design(LRFD) code development in Korea, in this paper an intensive reliability analysis was performed to evaluate reliability levels of the two static bearing capacity methods for driven steel pipe piles adopted in Korean Standards for Structure Foundations by the representative reliability methods of First Order Reliability Method(FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS). The resistance bias factors for the two static design methods were evaluated by comparing the representative measured bearing capacities with the design values. In determination of the representative bearing capacities of driven steel pipe piles, the 58 data sets of static load tests and soil property tests were collected and analyzed. The static bearing capacity formula and the Meyerhof method using N values were applied to the calculation of the expected design bearing capacity of the piles. The two representative reliability methods(FORM, MCS) based computer programs were developed to facilitate the reliability analysis in this study. Mean Value First Order Second Moment(MVFOSM) approach that provides a simple closed-form solution and two advanced methods of FORM and MCS were used to conduct the intensive reliability analysis using the resistance bias factor statistics obtained, and the results were then compared. In addition, a parametric study was conducted to identify the sensibility and the influence of the random variables on the reliability analysis under consideration.
The conventional National Forest Inventory(NFI)-based forest carbon stock estimation method is suitable for national-scale estimation, but is not for regional-scale estimation due to the lack of NFI plots. In this study, for the purpose of regional-scale carbon stock estimation, we created grid-based forest carbon stock maps using spatial ancillary data and two types of up-scaling methods. Chungnam province was chosen to represent the study area and for which the $5^{th}$ NFI (2006~2009) data was collected. The first method (method 1) selects forest type map as ancillary data and uses regression model for forest carbon stock estimation, whereas the second method (method 2) uses satellite imagery and k-Nearest Neighbor(k-NN) algorithm. Additionally, in order to consider uncertainty effects, the final AGB carbon stock maps were generated by performing 200 iterative processes with Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, compared to the NFI-based estimation(21,136,911 tonC), the total carbon stock was over-estimated by method 1(22,948,151 tonC), but was under-estimated by method 2(19,750,315 tonC). In the paired T-test with 186 independent data, the average carbon stock estimation by the NFI-based method was statistically different from method2(p<0.01), but was not different from method1(p>0.01). In particular, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the smoothing effect of k-NN algorithm and mis-registration error between NFI plots and satellite image can lead to large uncertainty in carbon stock estimation. Although method 1 was found suitable for carbon stock estimation of forest stands that feature heterogeneous trees in Korea, satellite-based method is still in demand to provide periodic estimates of un-investigated, large forest area. In these respects, future work will focus on spatial and temporal extent of study area and robust carbon stock estimation with various satellite images and estimation methods.
The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.
Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
/
v.15
no.3
/
pp.142-154
/
2011
This study predicted the probability of corrosion initiation of reinforced concrete tunnel boxes structures using the Monte Carlo Simulation. For the inner wall and outer wall in the tunnel boxes, exposed to airborne chloride ion and seawater directly respectively, statistical values of parameters like diffusion coefficient D, surface chloride content $C_s$, cover depth c, and the chloride threshold level $C_{lim}$ were examined from experiment or literature review. Their average values accounted for $3.77{\times}10^{-12}m^2/s$, 3.0% by weight of cement, 94.7mm and 45.5mm for outer wall and inner wall, respectively, and 0.69% by weight of cement for D, $C_s$, c, and $C_{lim}$, respectively. With these parametric values, the distribution of chloride contents at rebar with time and the probability of corrosion initiation of the tunnel boxes, inner wall and outer wall, was examined by considering time dependency of chloride transport. From the examination, the histogram of chloride contents at rebar is closer to a gamma distribution, and the mean value increases with time, while the coefficient of variance decreases with time. It was found that the probability of corrosion initiation and the time to corrosion were dependent on the time dependency of chloride transport. Time independent model predicted time to corrosion initiation of inner wall and outer wall as 8 and 12 years, respectively, while 178 and 283 years of time to corrosion was calculated by time dependent model for inner wall and outer wall, respectively. For time independent model, the probability of corrosion at 100 years of exposure for inner wall and outer wall was ranged 59.5 and 95.5%, respectively, while time dependent model indicated 2.9 and 0.2% of the probability corrosion, respectively. Finally, impact of $C_{lim}$, including values specified in current codes, on the probability of corrosion initiation and corrosion free life is discussed.
Purpose: In order to obtain better quantitation of kidney uptake, this study is to evaluate a conjugate view method (CVM) using a geometric mean attenuation correction for kidney uptake and to compare it to Gate's method. Materials & Methods: We used a Monte Carlo code, SIMIND and a Zubal phantom, to simulate kidney uptake. SIMIND was both simulated with or without scatter for the Zubal phantom. Also, a real phantom test was carried out using a dual-head gamma camera. The activity of 0.5 mCi was infused into two small cylinder phantoms of 5 cm diameter, and then, they were inserted into a cylinder phantom of 20 cm diameter. The results by the CVM method were compared with ideal data without both of attenuation and scatter and with Gate's method. The CVM was performed with or without scatter correction. The Gate's method was performed without scatter correction and it was evaluated with regards to $0.12cm^{-1}\;and\;0.15cm^{-1}$ attenuation coefficients. Data were analyzed with comparisons of mean counts in the legions of interest (ROI), profiles drawn over kidney images and linear regression. Correlation coefficients were calculated with ideal data, as well. Results: In the case of the computer simulation, mean counts measured from ideal data, the CVM and the Gate's method were (right $998{\pm}209$, left: $896{\pm}249$), (right: $911{\pm}207$, left: $815{\pm}265$), and (right: $1065{\pm}267$, left: $1546{\pm}267$), respectively. The ideal data showed good correlation with the CVM and the correlation coefficients of the CVM, Gate's method were (right: 0.91, left: 0.93) and (right: 0.85, left: 0.90), respectively. Conclusion: The conjugate view method using geometric mean attenuation correction resulted in better accuracy than the Gate's method. In conclusion, the conjugate view method independent of renal depths may provide more accurate kidney uptake.
In this paper, it is shown how the performance of the monopulse algorithm in the presence of an additive noise can be obtained analytically. In the previous study, analytic performance analysis based on the first-order Taylor series and the second-order Taylor series has been conducted. By adopting the third-order Taylor series, it is shown that the analytic performance based on the third-order Taylor series can be made closer to the performance of the original monopulse algorithm than the analytic performance based on the first-order Taylor series and the second-order Taylor series. The analytic MSE based on the third-order Taylor approximation reduces the analytic MSE error based on the second-order Taylor approximation by 89.5%. It also shows faster results in all cases than the Monte Carlo-based MSE. Through this study, it is possible to explicitly analyze the angle estimation ability of monopulse radar in an environment where noise jamming is applied.
Purpose : For the research of Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (BNCT), fast neutrons generated from the MC-50 cyclotron with maximum energy of 34.4 MeV in Korea Cancer Center Hospital were moderated by 70 cm paraffin and then the dose characteristics were investigated. Using these results, we hope to establish the protocol about dose measurement of epi-thermal neutron, to make a basis of dose characteristic of epi-thermal neutron emitted from nuclear reactor, and to find feasibility about accelerator-based BNCT. Method and Materials : For measuring the absorbed dose and dose distribution of fast neutron beams, we used Unidos 10005 (PTW, Germany) electrometer and IC-17 (Far West, USA), IC-18, ElC-1 ion chambers manufactured by A-150 plastic and used IC-l7M ion chamber manufactured by magnesium for gamma dose. There chambers were flushed with tissue equivalent gas and argon gas and then the flow rate was S co per minute. Using Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code, transport program in mixed field with neutron, photon, electron, two dimensional dose and energy fluence distribution was calculated and there results were compared with measured results. Results : The absorbed dose of fast neutron beams was $6.47\times10^{-3}$ cGy per 1 MU at the 4 cm depth of the water phantom, which is assumed to be effective depth for BNCT. The magnitude of gamma contamination intermingled with fast neutron beams was $65.2{\pm}0.9\%$ at the same depth. In the dose distribution according to the depth of water, the neutron dose decreased linearly and the gamma dose decreased exponentially as the depth was deepened. The factor expressed energy level, $D_{20}/D_{10}$, of the total dose was 0.718. Conclusion : Through the direct measurement using the two ion chambers, which is made different wall materials, and computer calculation of isodose distribution using MCNP simulation method, we have found the dose characteristics of low fluence fast neutron beams. If the power supply and the target material, which generate high voltage and current, will be developed and gamma contamination was reduced by lead or bismuth, we think, it may be possible to accelerator-based BNCT.
In X-ray image, the role of filtration through the filter is to reduce the exposure of the patient by using photon which is useful in formation of the image, and at the same time, enhance the contrast of the image. During interaction between photon and object, low energy X-rays are absorbed from the site of a few cm of the first patient's tissue, and high energy X-rays are the one which form the image. Therefore, the radiation filter absorbs low energy X-ray in order to lower the exposure of the patient and improve the quality of the image. The purpose of this study is to compare the effect on the image quality by differences of added filter through simulation image and actual radiation image. For that purpose, we used Geant4 Application for Tomographic Emission (GATE) as a tool for Monte Carlo simulation. We set actual size, shape and material of Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) Phantom on GATE and differentiated the parameter of added filter. Also, we took image of PMMA phantom with same parameter of added filter by digital radiography (DR). Than we performed contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) evaluation on both simulation image and actual DR image by Image J. Finally, we observed the effect on image quality due to different thickness of added filter, and compared two images' CNR evaluation's transitions of change. The result of this experiment showed decreasing in the progress of CNR on both DR and simulation image. It is ultimately caused by decreasing in contrast on image. In theory, contrast decrease with kVp increased. Given that condition, this study found out that filter makes not only decreasing total dose by absorbing low energy of X-ray, but also increasing average energy of X-ray.
Recently, the interest in the orthodontic treatment for children is increased by a rise in national income level. The number of cephalometric radiography that could diagnose a malocclusion and malposition between teeth and jawbone increased. It required attention to radiation exposure, because the subject of dental examination is children which are more sensitive to radiation and the head and neck, the object of that include radiation sensitive organ such as the thyroid, bone marrow, eyes, salivary gland, and so on. In this study, we measured two-dimensional dose distribution in cephalometric radiography system (VATEC Pax-400C) using Agfa CP-G Plus film and MagicMax Dosimeter, and calculated radiation organ dose of head and neck through MCNPX simulation. And then we designed a radiation protective device to decrease radiation dose. The dose distribution of the cephalometric radiography system irradiated the head and neck overall as well as the oral and maxillofacial parts. The radiation organ dose calculated that thyroid, oesophagus and eyes are irradiated high, and the radiation organ dose decreased about 70 ~ 80% by the application of the radiation protective device. The results of this study will be used construction of database for dental radiation exposure and research of reducing radiation dose.
The stability of rock slope is mainly controlled by the orientation and shear strength of discontinuties in rock mass. Therefore, in kinematic analysis, the orientation of the combination of discontinuities and slope face is examined to determine if certain modes of failure can be occurred. In previous kinematic analysis, a representative orientation of the slope face and mean orientation of discontinuity set were used as input parameters. However, since the orientations of slope face varies according to locations of measurement, the representative slope face orientation could cause misunderstanding for kinematic instability. In addition, since the orientations of each discontinuity are scattered in the same discontinuity set, there is the possibility that uncertainties are involved in the procedure of kinematic analysis. Therefore, in this study, the detailed digital topographic map was used to obtain the orientation of slope face. In addition, the probabilistic analysis approach was utilized to deal properly with the uncertainties in discontinuity orientation. The proposed approach was applied to steep slopes in mountain road located in Baehuryeong, Chunncheon city, Gangwon-Do. The analysis results obtained from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis were compared to check the feasibility of proposed the analysis.
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