• Title/Summary/Keyword: Modeling Uncertainty

Search Result 550, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Impact of Emission Inventory Choices on PM10 Forecast Accuracy and Contributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (배출량 목록에 따른 수도권 PM10 예보 정합도 및 국내외 기여도 분석)

  • Bae, Changhan;Kim, Eunhye;Kim, Byeong-Uk;Kim, Hyun Cheol;Woo, Jung-Hun;Moon, Kwang-Joo;Shin, Hye-Jung;Song, In Ho;Kim, Soontae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
    • /
    • v.33 no.5
    • /
    • pp.497-514
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study quantitatively analyzes the effects of emission inventory choices on the simulated particulate matter (PM) concentrations and the domestic/foreign contributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) with an air quality forecasting system. The forecasting system is composed of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Different domestic and foreign emission inventories were selectively adopted to set up four sets of emissions inputs for air quality simulations in this study. All modeling cases showed that model performance statistics satisfied the criteria levels (correlation coefficient >0.7, fractional error <50%) suggested by previous studies. Notwithstanding the apparently good model performance of total PM concentrations by all emission cases, annual average concentrations of simulated total PM concentrations varied up to $20{\mu}g/m^3$ (160%) depending on the combination of emission inventories. In detail, the difference in simulated annual average concentrations of the primary PM coarse (PMC) was up to $25.2{\mu}g/m^3$ (6.5 times) compared with other cases. Furthermore, model performance analyses on PM species showed that the difference in the simulated primary PMC led to gross model overestimation in general, which indicates that the primary PMC emissions need to be improved. The contribution analysis using model direct outputs indicated that the domestic contributions to the annual average PM concentrations in the SMA vary from 44% to 67%. To account for the uncertainty of the simulated concentration, the contribution correction factor method proposed by Bae et al. (2017) was applied, which resulted in converged contributions(from 48% to 57%). We believe this study shows that it is necessary to improve the simulated concentrations of PM components in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting model. It is deemed that these improvements will provide more accurate contribution results.

Determinants of Department Store Sales Commissions Under Consignment Contracts: An Integrated Perspective (백화점 특약매입 거래에서 판매수수료의 결정요인 : 거래비용, 힘-의존이론과 자원기반이론의 통합적 관점)

  • Yi, Ho-Taek;Yeom, Min-Sun;Seo, Hun-Joo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.13 no.11
    • /
    • pp.47-58
    • /
    • 2015
  • Purpose - This study aims to seek determinants of department store sales commission rates under consignment contracts based on transaction cost theory, the power-dependence view, and the resource-based view. A consignment contract is a unique contract where the retailer, over a given period, takes possession of goods owned by a supplier, promotes the sales of these goods, and receives a profit share from their sales. Under this contract, the supplier owns the goods until they are sold. In department stores in South Korea, over 70% of overall sales comes through consignment contracts. In other words, this is the most popular contract agreement between large retailers and vendors in South Korea. Consignment contracts yield high profits to department stores with minimal sales uncertainty, stock cost, and marketing investment. Many suppliers believe the consignment contract commission rates are too high. However, department stores disagree. They state that the commissions are not high as they generate new value for the suppliers by accumulating up-to-date merchandise and supporting various marketing programs on their behalf. Recently, consignment contracts have been critically examined and scrutinized by politicians, mass media, and the public of Korea. This study further intends to derive implications reflecting both buyer and seller perspectives as well as offer insights to policy makers in making appropriate decisions. Research design, data, and methodology - To verify the proposed research model and test hypotheses, the authors selected 164 suppliers, which currently have relationships with department stores. This study carefully investigated the reliability, content validity, convergent validity, and discriminant validity of the proposed model. The data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0 and AMOS structural equation modeling program Results - For the transaction cost theory and the power-dependence view, the results indicated that product diversity and demand volatility had a positive impact on the sales dependence on a department store. Dependence in turn had a positive effect on the sales commission under the consignment contract. Based on the resource-based view, the department store's marketing capability, the supplier's perception toward merchandising, and supporting activities could enhance the department store's channel leadership in the buyer-seller relationship. Subsequently, the channel leadership had a positive effect on the sales commission. However, product complexity had no relationship with department store dependence. Conclusions - This is the first empirical research that investigates the determinants of sales commissions under consignment contracts in the domestic retail industry. This study reveals several theoretical and practical implications for both marketing scholars and marketers. In terms of theoretical implication, this study integrated and enlarged certain theoretical background, such as transaction cost theory, the power-dependence view, and the resource-based view, to explain the determinants of sales commissions under consignment contracts that include sales revenue. From a business management viewpoint, this research offers useful insights for policy makers by applying two different perspectives, both the manufacturer and the retailer, in terms of the sales commission issue under a consignment contract.

Stability Analysis of Embankment Overtopping by Initial Fluctuating Water Level (초기 변동수위를 고려한 제방 월류에 따른 안정성 분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Tae-Heon;Kim, You-Seong;Kim, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.31 no.8
    • /
    • pp.51-62
    • /
    • 2015
  • It is not possible to provide resonable evidence for embankment (or dam) overtopping in geotechnical engineering, and conventional analysis by hydrologic design has not provided the evidence for the overflow. However, hydrologic design analysis using Copula function demonstrates the possibility that dam overflow occurs when estimating rainfall probability with rainfall data for 40 years based on fluctuating water level of a dam. Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship needs to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated with modeling process and inputs. The systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, the initial level of a dam for stability of a dam is generally determined by normal pool level or limiting the level of the flood, but overflow of probability and instability of a dam depend on the sensitivity analysis of the initial level of a dam. In order to estimate the initial level, Copula function and HEC-5 rainfall-runoff model are used to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. For geotechnical engineering, slope stability analysis was performed to investigate the difference between rapid drawdown and overtopping of a dam. As a result, the slope instability in overtopping of a dam was more dangerous than that of rapid drawdown condition.

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Information Sharing Level on Supply Chain Integration between Companies and Corporate's Performance (기업 간 정보공유수준이 공급사슬통합과 기업성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Chung;Lee, Choong-Bae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.36 no.1
    • /
    • pp.141-164
    • /
    • 2020
  • With business environments around the world facing uncertainty and complexity, companies have focused on supply chain management as one of the essential elements in securing a competitive advantage. Successful supply chain management requires internal efforts to strengthen the core competencies of the company and the integration of individual functions in the supply chain. This study aims to investigate the effect of information sharing between companies on supply chain integration and corporate performance. The research hypothesis established in previous studies was analyzed using structural equation modeling. A total of 723 questionnaire responses were used to test the hypotheses of this study. We found that the integration and sharing of information between companies have a great influence on supply chain integration, which has positive effects on corporate performance at the operational and strategic levels, including finance, market share, and customer satisfaction. The integration of supply chains via information integration and sharing between companies can promote the flow of information, services, goods, and money. Therefore, if information is disconnected between actors in the supply chain, it will lead to negative effects on the management of the entire supply chain. On the other hand, if supply chain actors can share information efficiently in real time on one platform, they can expect to optimize the entire supply chain. Information sharing and integration at the strategic and operational levels play a vital role in supply chain integration, which contributes to achieving a company's performance targets and enhancing its competitiveness.

Flood Inflow Estimation at Large Multipurpose Dam using Distributed Model with Measured Flow Boundary Condition at Direct Upstream Channels (직상류 계측유량경계조건과 분포형모델을 이용한 대규모 다목적댐 홍수유입량 산정)

  • Hong, Sug-Hyeon;Kang, Boosik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.35 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1039-1049
    • /
    • 2015
  • The inflow estimation at large multipurpose dam reservoir is carried out by considering the water balance among the discharge, the storage change during unit time interval obtained from the observed water level near dam structure and area-volume curve. This method can be ideal for level pool reservoir but include potential errors when the inflow is influenced by the water level slope due to backwater effects from upstream flood inflows and strong wind induced by typhoon. In addition, the other uncertainties arisen from the storage reduction due to sedimentation after the dam construction and water level noise due to mechanical vibration transmitted from the electric power generator. These uncertainties impedes the accurate hydraulic inflow measurement requiring exquisite hydrometric data arrangement for reservoir waterbody. In this study, the distributed hydrologic model using UBC-3P boundary setting was applied and its feasibility was evaluated. Finally, the modeling performance has been verified since the calculated determination coefficient has been in between 0.96 to 0.99 after comparing with observed peak inflow and total inflow at Namgang dam reservoir.

Factors affecting Pig Farmers' Adoption of the HACCP System

  • Jung, Gu-Hyun;Ahn, Kyeong Ah;Kim, Han-Eul;Jo, Hye Bin;Choe, Young-Chan
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
    • /
    • v.3 no.2
    • /
    • pp.43-62
    • /
    • 2011
  • The goal of this study is to determine, based on survey results, the underlying factors that affect the intention of the farmers who have not adopted the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) system for the rearing phase of pig production to adopt this system in the future. The research model for this study was con structed based on strategic contingency theory, the theory of the diffusion of innovation, and the technology acceptance model (TAM). Using structural equation modeling with partial least squares (PLS), this study analyzes the effects of the intensity of competition, the environmental uncertainty, the innovativeness and self-efficacy of the individual farmers, and the impact of the credibility of the Agricultural Technology Service Center (ATSC), which acts as the principal agent of technology dissemination and as a leader of change, on the perceived usefulness of technology and the farmers' intention to adopt the system. The results of the analysis are as follows. First, with regard to the underlying factors affecting the intention to adopt the new system, the intensity of competition within the industry and the institutional credibility of the ATSC were inferred to underlie the perceived usefulness. Second, institutional credibility has a positive impact on the perceived usefulness of the system, and the perceived usefulness, in turn, has a positive impact on the intention to adopt. The perceived ease of use also has a positive impact on the intention to adopt. Because the factor that has the biggest impact on the intention of a farm to adopt is the credibility of the ATSC, it is crucial for extension organizations, such as the ATSC, to make greater efforts to promote the expansion of the HACCP system. Because farmers feel that the implementation of the HACCP system is an instrumental strategy for coping with the high intensity of competition within the industry, they attempt to gain a competitive edge through the production of safe livestock products.

  • PDF

Urban Flood Simulation Considering Buildings Resistance Coefficient Based on GIS: Focused on Samcheok City (건물 저항계수에 따른 GIS기반의 밀집 시가지 침수모의 -삼척시가지를 중심으로-)

  • Ji, Juong-Hwan;Kang, Sang-Hyeok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.43 no.2
    • /
    • pp.211-220
    • /
    • 2010
  • The objective of this paper presents the application of an "integrated urban flood modeling-runoff model, urban flood model and sewer system model-" in a highly urbanized area of Samcheok where is seriously inundated in 2002 and 2003. For this, we demonstrate how couple a 1-D hydrodynamic model of the river, a 2-D hydrodynamic model of the overland (surface) flow, and a sewer network model including each boundary conditions. In order to make data file for the model, topographic information like elevation and share rate of buildings are directly extracted from DEM or topographical source data without data exchange to avoid uncertainty errors. Furthermore, the research is to assess the impacts of Manning n and buildings influences to inundated depth by changing its share ratio from 10 % to 30 % in low-land urban area. As a results, we found out that the urban inundated depth was decreased by Manning n but increased by buildings ratio. The calculated results of inundation was similar with observed one in 2002 and 2003 flooding. Furthermore, the area was also inundated under not riverbank break case in 2002 flooding.

Theoretical and Empirical Issues in Conducting an Economic Analysis of Damage in Price-Fixing Litigation: Application to a Transportation Fuel Market (담합관련 손해배상 소송의 경제분석에서 고려해야 할 이론 및 실증적 쟁점: 수송용 연료시장에의 적용)

  • Moon, Choon-Geol
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.187-224
    • /
    • 2014
  • We present key issues to consider in estimating damages from price-fixing cases and then apply the procedure addressing those issues to a transportation fuel market. Among the five methods of overcharge calculation, the regression analysis incorporating the yardstick method is the best. If the price equation relates the domestic price to the foreign price and the exchange rate as in the transportation fuel market, the functional form satisfying both logical consistency and modeling flexibility is the log-log functional form. If the data under analysis is of time series in nature, then the ARDL model should be the base model for each market and the regression analysis incorporating the yardstick method combines these ARDL equations to account for inter-market correlation and arrange constant terms and collusion-period dummies across component equations appropriately so as to identify the overcharge parameter. We propose a two-step test for the benchmarked market: (a) conduct market-by-market Spearman or Kendall test for randomness of the individual market price series first and (b) then conduct across-market Friedman test for homogeneity of the market price series. Statistical significance is the minimal requirement to establish the alleged proposition in the world of uncertainty. Between the sensitivity analysis and the model selection process for the best fitting model, the latter is far more important in the economic analysis of damage in price-fixing litigation. We applied our framework to a transportation fuel market and could not reject the null hypothesis of no overcharge.

Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment due to Typhoon Attack on Coastal area in Korea (태풍 내습으로 인한 연안역 해일 취약성 평가)

  • Kang, Tae-Soon;Oh, Hyeong-Min;Lee, Hae-Mi;Eum, Ho-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.21 no.5
    • /
    • pp.608-616
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this study, we have estimated the storm surge heights using numerical modeling on coastal area, and then evaluated the vulnerability index by applying the vulnerability assessment techniques. Surge modelling for 27 typhoons affected from 2000 to 2014 were simulated by applying the ADCIRC model. The results of validation and verification was in significant agreement as compared with observations for the top 6 ranking typhoons affected. As results, the storm surge heights in Jinhae Bay, Sacheon Bay, Gwangyang Bay, Cheonsu Bay and Gyeonggi Bay were higher than other inner coastal areas, then storm surge vulnerability assessment was performed using a standardization, normalization and gradation of storm surge heights. According to results of storm surge vulnerability assessment, index of Jinhae Bay, Sacheon Bay, Gwangyang Bay etc. are estimated to be vulnerable(4~5) because of the characteristics of storm surge such as inner bay are vulnerable compared with exposed to the open sea areas. However, index in the inner bay of western Jeonnam are not vulnerable(1~3) relatively. It may not appear the typhoons affected significantly for the past 15 years. So, the long-term vulnerability assessment with the sensitivity of geomorphology are necessary to reduce the uncertainty.

Reliability-Based Design Optimization Using Enhanced Pearson System (개선된 피어슨 시스템을 이용한 신뢰성기반 최적설계)

  • Kim, Tae-Kyun;Lee, Tae-Hee
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.35 no.2
    • /
    • pp.125-130
    • /
    • 2011
  • Since conventional optimization that is classified as a deterministic method does not consider the uncertainty involved in a modeling or manufacturing process, an optimum design is often determined to be on the boundaries of the feasible region of constraints. Reliability-based design optimization is a method for obtaining a solution by minimizing the objective function while satisfying the reliability constraints. This method includes an optimization process and a reliability analysis that facilitates the quantization of the uncertainties related to design variables. Moment-based reliability analysis is a method for calculating the reliability of a system on the basis of statistical moments. In general, on the basis of these statistical moments, the Pearson system estimates seven types of distributions and determines the reliability of the system. However, it is technically difficult to practically consider the Pearson Type IV distribution. In this study, we propose an enhanced Pearson Type IV distribution based on a kriging model and validate the accuracy of the enhanced Pearson Type IV distribution by comparing it with a Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, reliability-based design optimization is performed for a system with type IV distribution by using the proposed method.