• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.537-537
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• 2015

In recent decades, the independence and identical distribution (iid) assumption for extreme events has been shown to be invalid in many cases because long-term climate variability resulting from phenomena such as the Pacific decadal variability and El Nino-Southern Oscillation may induce varying meteorological systems such as persistent wet years and dry years. Therefore, in the current study we propose a new parameter estimation method for probability distribution models to more accurately predict the magnitude of future extreme events when the iid assumption of probability distributions for large-scale climate variability is not adequate. The proposed parameter estimation is based on a metaheuristic approach and is derived from the objective function of the rth power probability-weighted sum of observations in increasing order. The combination of two distributions, gamma and generalized extreme value (GEV), was fitted to the GEV distribution in a simulation study. In addition, a case study examining the annual hourly maximum precipitation of all stations in South Korea was performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. The results of the simulation study and case study indicate that the proposed metaheuristic parameter estimation method is an effective alternative for accurately selecting the rth power when the iid assumption of extreme hydrometeorological events is not valid for large-scale climate variability. The maximum likelihood estimate is more accurate with a low mixing probability, and the probability-weighted moment method is a moderately effective option.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.161-168
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• 2021

Existing old reinforced concrete buildings could be vulnerable to earthquakes because they were constructed without satisfying seismic design and detail requirements. In current seismic design standards, the target collapse probability for a given Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) ground-shaking hazard is defined as 10% for ordinary buildings. This study aims to estimate the collapse probabilities of a three-story, old, reinforced concrete building designed by only considering gravity loads. Four different seismic design categories (SDC), A, B, C, and D, are considered. This study reveals that the RC building located in the SDC A region satisfies the target collapse probability. However, buildings located in SDC B, C, and D regions do not meet the target collapse probability. Since the degree of exceedance of the target probability increases with an increase in the SDC level, it is imminent to retrofit non-ductile RC buildings similar to the model building. It can be confirmed that repair and reinforcement of old reinforced concrete buildings are required.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.46-54
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• 2007

In this paper, we introduce the performance of improved symbol timing detection by the superposed difference type symbol timing detection method in the OFDM system. Also, we represent the maximum detection probability of symbol synchronization timing at each received delay signal in multipath channel delay profile in the correlation and difference type symbol timing detection methods. The computer simulation results show that the correlation symbol timing detection method have maximum detection probability at the lead of the nth received delay signal of highest amplitude, but the difference type symbol timing detection method always have maximum detection probability at the lead of the first received delay signal in the channel delay spread of $70nsec{\sim}217nsec$. The simulation results indicate the possibility of the perfect detection of OFDM symbol synchronization timing and it fit well with the results of improved S/N to the eb/n0 and the performance of symbol timing detection of the proposed method.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.37-41
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• 2014

Recently, a lot of research efforts has been directed toward spectrum sensing techniques exploiting the some characteristics of power spectrum. Among them, a sensing technique employing the maximum of power spectrum as a test statistic has appeared in the literature and its false alarm probability was also derived under the assumption that the test statistic follows the Gaussian distribution. This paper provides an exact form of the false alarm probability without using the assumption and compares it with the previous work.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.219-228
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• 1997

The Fano metric is the maximum likelihood decoding choice for convlutional code for binary symmetric channel. The Fano metric assumes that it has previous knowledge of channel error probability. However, the bit errors in real channel occur in bursts and the channel error probability can not be known exactly. Thus, the Fano metric is not the maximum likelihood choice for bursty-noise channel. In this paper universal metri which dose not require the previous knowlege of the channel transition probability is used for sequential decoding. It is shown that the complexity of the universal is much less than that of the Fano metric bursty-noise channel, since it is estimated on a branch by branch basis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.35-42
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• 1994

This study is to analyse probability distribution characteristics of water supply demand. Two cities located near Seoul were selected as study areas. In this study, two probalility distribution types were tested using the K-S(Kolmogorov-Smirnov) method. The K-S method was used to prove the goodness of the selected distribution type. And also, the goodness of maximum day demand to average day demand ratio which was obtained by field data was tested. Conclusions are as follows. 1.Bothl normal distribution type and lognormal distribution type are appropriate as the probalility distribution type for the water supply demand. 2. The probability distribution characteristics can be used to test the goodness of the maximum day to average day demand ratio.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.393-399
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• 2011

We evaluate the link-level performance of cooperative multi-hop relaying networks with an maximum distance separable (MDS) code. The effect of the code on the link-level performance at the destination is investigated in terms of the outage probability and the spectral efficiency. Assuming a simple topology, we construct an absorbing Markov chain. Numerical results indicate that significant improvement can be achieved by incorporating an MDS code. MDS codes successfully facilitate recovery of the message block at a relaying node due to powerful error-correcting capability, so that it can reduce the outage probability. Furthermore, we evaluate the average number of hops where the message block can be delivered.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2001

The frequency analyses for the precipitation data in Korea were performed. We used daily maximum series, monthly maximum series, and annual series. For nonparametric frequency analyses, variable kernel estimators were used. Nonparametric methods do not require assumptions about the underlying populations from which the data are obtained. Therefore, they are better suited for multimodal distributions with the advantage of not requiring a distributional assumption. In order to compare their performance with parametric distributions, we considered several probability density functions. They are Gamma, Gumbel, Log-normal, Log-Pearson type III, Exponential, Generalized logistic, Generalized Pareto, and Wakeby distributions. The variable kernel estimates are comparable and are in the middle of the range of the parametric estimates. The variable kernel estimates show a very small probability in extrapolation beyond the largest observed data in the sample. However, the log-variable kernel estimates remedied these defects with the log-transformed data.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.749-755
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• 2023

A new approximation method was proposed for treating the non-resonant spatial self-shielding effects of double heterogeneous region such as the double heterogeneous effect of VHTR fuel compact in the thermal energy range and that of BP compact with BISO. The method was developed based on the effective homogenization method and a spherical unit cell model with explicit coated layers and a matrix layer. The self-shielding factor was derived from the relation between the collision probabilities for a double heterogeneous compact and the effective cross section for the homogenized compact. First, the collision probabilities and transmission probabilities for all layers of the spherical model were calculated using conventional collision probability solver. Then, the effective cross section for the homogenized sphere cell representing the homogenized compact was obtained from the transmission probability calculated using the probability density function of a chord length. The verification calculations revealed that the proposed method can predict the self-shielding factor with a maximum error of 2.3% and the double heterogeneous effect with a maximum error of 200 pcm in the typical VHTR problems with various packing fractions and BP compact sizes.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2019

Identifying behavioral errors of seafarers that have led to marine accidents is a basis for research into prevention or mitigation of marine accidents. The purpose of this study is to estimate the optimal probability distribution function needed to model behavioral errors of crew members into three behaviors (i.e., Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-based). Through use of behavioral data obtained from previous accidents, we estimated the optimal probability distribution function for the three behavioral errors and verified the significance between the probability values derived from the probability distribution function. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to the probability distribution function estimation and variance analysis (ANOVA) used for the significance test. The obtained experimental results show that the probability distribution function with the smallest error can be estimated for each of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents. The statistical significance of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents calculated using the probability distribution function was observed. In addition, behavioral errors were also found to significantly affect marine accidents. The results of this study can be applied to predicting marine accidents caused by behavioral errors.