• Soft Computing and Machine Intelligence
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2021

House price prediction is a significant financial decision for individuals working in the housing market as well as for potential buyers. From investment to buying a house for residence, a person investing in the housing market is interested in the potential gain. This paper presents machine learning algorithms to develop intelligent regressions models for House price prediction. The proposed research methodology consists of four stages, namely Data Collection, Pre Processing the data collected and transforming it to the best format, developing intelligent models using machine learning algorithms, training, testing, and validating the model on house prices of the housing market in the Capital, Islamabad. The data used for model validation and testing is the asking price from online property stores, which provide a reasonable estimate of the city housing market. The prediction model can significantly assist in the prediction of future housing prices in Pakistan. The regression results are encouraging and give promising directions for future prediction work on the collected dataset.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.14-19
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• 2008

The paper presents an intelligent time series model to predict uncertain electricity market price in the deregulated industry environment. Since the price of electricity in a deregulated market is very volatile, it is difficult to estimate an accurate market price using historically observed data. The parameter of an intelligent time series model is obtained based on the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA). The SPSA is flexible to use in high dimensional systems. Since prediction models have their modeling error, an error compensator is developed as compensation. The SPSA based intelligent model is applied to predict the electricity market price in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.132-139
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• 2019

We address the problem about forecasting the direction of stock price movement in the Korea market. Recently, the deep neural network is popularly applied in this area of research. In deep neural network systems, proper parameter initialization reduces training time and improves the performance of the model. Therefore, in our study, we propose a novel parameter initialization technique and apply this technique for the stock price movement prediction model. Specifically, we design a framework which consists of two models: a base model and a main prediction model. The base model constructed with LSTM is trained by using the large data which is generated by a large amount of the stock data to achieve optimal parameters. The main prediction model with the same architecture as the base model uses the optimal parameter initialization. Thus, the main prediction model is trained by only using the data of the given stock. Moreover, the stock price movements can be affected by other related information in the stock market. For this reason, we conducted our research with two types of inputs. The first type is the stock features, and the second type is a combination of the stock features and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) features. Empirical results conducted on the top five stocks in the KOSPI list in terms of market capitalization indicate that our approaches achieve better predictive accuracy and F1-score comparing to other baseline models.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.157-165
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• 2022

As the stock market is affected by various circumstances including economic and political variables, predicting the stock market is considered a still open problem. When combined with corporate financial statement data analysis, which is used as fundamental analysis, and technical analysis with a short data generation cycle, there is a problem that the time domain does not match. Our proposed method, LSTE the operating profit and market outlook of a petrochemical company and estimates the sales and operating profit of the company, it was possible to solve the above-mentioned problems and improve the accuracy of stock price prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world stock data show that our method outperforms the 8.58% relative improvements on average w.r.t. accuracy.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.154-161
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• 2018

This study conducted to predict the stock market prices based on the assumption that internet news articles might have an impact and effect on the rise and fall of stock market prices. The internet news articles were tested to evaluate the accuracy by comparing predicted values of the actual stock index and the forecasting models of the companies. This paper collected stock news from the internet, and analyzed and identified the relationship with the stock price index. Since the internet news contents consist mainly of unstructured texts, this study used text mining technique and multiple regression analysis technique to analyze news articles. A company H as a representative automobile manufacturing company was selected, and prediction models for the stock price index of company H was presented. Thus two prediction models for forecasting the upturn and decline of H stock index is derived and presented. Among the two prediction models, the error value of the prediction model (1) is low, and so the prediction performance of the model (1) is relatively better than that of the prediction model (2). As the further research, if the contents of this study are supplemented by real artificial intelligent investment decision system and applied to real investment, more practical research results will be able to be developed.

• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.109-124
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• 2020

Facing the 4^th Industrial Revolution era, researches on artificial intelligence have become active and attempts have been made to apply machine learning in various fields. In the field of finance, Robo Advisor service, which analyze the market, make investment decisions and allocate assets instead of people, are rapidly expanding. The stock price prediction using the machine learning that has been carried out to date is mainly based on the prediction of the market index such as KOSPI, and utilizes technical data that is fundamental index or price derivative index using financial statement. However, most researches have proceeded without any explicit verification of the prediction rate of the learning data. In this study, we conducted an experiment to determine the degree of market prediction ability of basic indicators, technical indicators, and system risk indicators (AR) used in stock price prediction. First, we set the core parameters for each financial indicator and define the objective function reflecting the return and volatility. Then, an experiment was performed to extract the sample from the distribution of each parameter by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and to find the optimum value to maximize the objective function. Since Robo Advisor is a commodity that trades financial instruments such as stocks and funds, it can not be utilized only by forecasting the market index. The sample for this experiment is data of 17 years of 1,500 stocks that have been listed in Korea for more than 5 years after listing. As a result of the experiment, it was possible to establish a meaningful trading strategy that exceeds the market return. This study can be utilized as a basis for the development of Robo Advisor products in that it includes a large proportion of listed stocks in Korea, rather than an experiment on a single index, and verifies market predictability of various financial indicators.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2014

클라우드 컴퓨팅은 정보의 다양성과 빅데이터를 IT자원을 이용하여 처리할 수 있는 컴퓨팅 개념이다. 정부는 신재생에너지를 활용한 전력생산을 장려하기 위해 RPS를 시행하였고 시스템을 구축하여 지리적으로 분산되어 있는 빅데이터를 수집하여 운영하고 있다. RPS제도를 이행하는 발전사업자들은 의무할당량 중 REC 부족분을 타 발전사업자들로부터 REC를 구매하여 조달해야 한다. REC는 자율시장에 근거하여 거래되고 있고, 매매가격의 편차가 크기 때문에 RPS 빅데이터를 통해 형평성있는 REC가격을 예측할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 부정확한 가격추이와 규칙을 정량적으로 표현하여, 클라우드 환경에서 퍼지기반으로 REC가격을 예측하는 방법을 제안한다. 클라우드 환경에서 RPS 빅데이터를 통한 상호연관성과 가격결정에 영향을 주는 변수들에 대한 분석이 가능하고 시뮬레이션을 통해 REC 가격을 예측할 수 있다. 클라우드 환경에서 퍼지로직은 매물수량과 매매가격을 이용하여 투명성있는 REC 가격을 예측하고 장기적으로 수렴된 가격을 제시할 것이다.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제48권1호
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• pp.72-81
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• 2012

Using artificial neural network (ANN) technique, auction prices for common mackerel were forecasted with the daily total sale and auction price data at the Busan Cooperative Fish Market before introducing Total Allowable Catch (TAC) system, when catch data had no limit in Korea. Virtual input data produced from actual data were used to improve the accuracy of prediction and the suitable neural network was induced for the prediction. We tested 35 networks to be retained 10, and found good performance network with regression ratio of 0.904 and determination coefficient of 0.695. There were significant variations between training and verification errors in this network. Ideally, it should require more training cases to avoid over-learning, which leads to improve performance and makes the results more reliable. And the precision of prediction was improved when environmental factors including physical and biological variables were added. This network for prediction of price and catch was considered to be applicable for other fishes.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.503-509
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• 2022

본 논문의 연구 취지는 예측하고자 하는 다음 날과 이전 날의 시가 사이 변동률을 예측값으로 두고 시가를 예측하는 기존 논문들과는 다르게 예측하고자 하는 다음날의 주가 순위를 일정한 간격으로 분할하여 생성된 각 구간마다의 시가 변동률을 예측값으로 하는 모델을 통하여 최종적인 다음날의 시가 변동률을 예측하는 새로운 시계열 데이터 예측 방식을 제안하고자 한다. 예측값의 세분화 정도와 입력 데이터의 종류에 따른 모델의 성능 변화를 분석했으며 연구 결과 예측값의 세분화 정도에 따른 모델의 예측값과 실제값의 차이가 예측값의 세분화 개수가 3일 때 큰 폭으로 감소한다는 사실도 도출해 낼 수 있었다.

• 정보처리학회논문지:소프트웨어 및 데이터공학
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• 제7권10호
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• pp.387-396
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• 2018

과거부터 주식시장의 주가 예측은 풀리지 않는 난제이다. 이를 과학적으로 예측하기 위해 다양한 시도 및 연구들이 있어왔지만 정확한 가격을 예측하는 것은 불가능하다. 최근 분산 원장이라는 개념을 기술적으로 구현한 최초의 암호화폐인 비트코인을 시작으로 다양한 종류의 암호화폐가 개발되면서 암호화폐 시장이 형성되었고, 그 가격을 예측하기 위해 다양한 접근들이 시도되고 있다. 특히, 기존의 전통적인 주식시장에서의 주가 예측 기법들을 적용하려는 시도부터 딥러닝과 강화학습을 적용하려는 시도까지 다양하다. 하지만 암호화폐 시장은 기존 주식 시장에는 없던 여러 가지 새로운 특징을 가지는 시장으로서 전통적인 주식 시장 분석 기술뿐만 아니라 암호화폐 시장에 적합한 새로운 분석 기술에 관한 수요가 증가하고 있는 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 우선 빗썸의 API를 통하여 7개의 암호화폐 가격 데이터를 수집 및 가공하였다. 이후, Data-Driven 방식의 지도학습 기반 기계학습 모델인 그래디언트 부스팅 모델을 채택하여 암호화폐 가격 데이터 변화를 학습하고, 검증단계에서 가장 최적의 모델 파라미터를 산출하고, 최종적으로 테스트 데이터를 활용하여 암호화폐 가격동향 예측 성능을 평가한다.