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Effects of Macroeconomic Conditions and External Shocks for Port Business: Forecasting Cargo Throughput of Busan Port Using ARIMA and VEC Models

  • Nam, Hyung-Sik;D'agostini, Enrico;Kang, Dal-Won
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.449-457
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    • 2022
  • The Port of Busan is currently ranked as the seventh largest container port worldwide in terms of cargo throughput. However, port competition in the Far-East region is fierce. The growth rate of container throughput handled by the port of Busan has recently slowed down. In this study, we analyzed how economic conditions and multiple external shocks could influence cargo throughput and identified potential implications for port business. The aim of this study was to build a model to accurately forecast port throughput using the ARIMA model, which could incorporate external socio-economic shocks, and the VEC model considering causal variables having long-term effects on transshipment cargo. Findings of this study suggest that there are three main areas affecting container throughput in the port of Busan, namely the Russia-Ukraine war, the increased competition for transshipment cargo of Chinese ports, and the weaker growth rate of the Korean economy. Based on the forecast, in order for the Port of the Port of Busan to continue to grow as a logistics hub in Northeast-Asia, policy intervention is necessary to diversify the demand for transshipment cargo and maximize benefits of planned infrastructural investments.

Virtual Design and Construction (VDC)-Aided System for Logistics Monitoring: Supply Chains in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Plant Construction

  • Moon, Sungkon;Chi, Hung-Lin;Forlani, John;Wang, Xiangyu
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.195-199
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    • 2015
  • Many conventional management methods have emphasized the minimization of required resources along the supply chain. Accordingly, this paper presents a proposed method called the Virtual Design and Construction (VDC)-aided system. It is based on object-oriented resource control, in order to accomplish a feed-forward control monitoring supply chain logistics. The system is supported by two main parts: (1) IT-based Technologies; and (2) VDC Models. They enable the system to convey proactive information from the detection technology to its linked visualization. The paper includes a field study as the system's pre-test: the Scaffolding Works in a LNG Mega Project. The study demonstrates a system of real-time productivity monitoring by use of the RFIDbased Mobile Information Hub. The on-line 'productivity dashboard' provides an opportunity to display the continuing processes for each work-package. This research project offers the observed opportunities created by the developed system. Future work will entail research experiments aimed towards system validation.

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Container Terminal Efficiency Measurement Using Data Envelopment Analysis: Pre-Pandemic Comparison of Colombo and Busan

  • Naleen De Alwis;Hyung-Sik Nam
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.118-120
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    • 2023
  • Increasing port competition driven by the containerisation has motivated ports and terminals to focus on their performance to efficiently utilise the available resources and to make strategic decisions in port development and expansion. With both inter-port andintra-port competition increasing in the port of Colombo, this study aims to measure the efficiency of the container terminals in Colombo comparing to terminals in the port of Busan using the DEA window analysis to determine their operational efficiency and to provide suggestions for future port development activities. Multiple window analyses were conducted using CCR and BCC models with different orientations and window lengths to compare the efficiencies of 11 DMUs in both ports during the period from 2015-2019 to measure the efficiencies prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Results revealed the largest terminal operator, PNC in Busan, to be the most efficient overall, while the second highest efficiency was recorded by one of the smallest terminal operators, SAGT in Colombo, among the sample. Although use of DEA in port performance measurement has been popular for many years, efficiency measurements in the port of Colombo, the main hub port in the South Asian region, has not been comprehensively studied so far.

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Analysis of Relative Contributions of Tonal Noise Sources in Volute Tongue Region of a Centrifugal Fan (원심팬 볼루트 영역내 순음 소음원의 상대적 기여도 분석)

  • Heo, Seung;Kim, Daehwan;Cheong, Cheolung
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.40-47
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    • 2014
  • Interaction between the unsteady flow emitted from the blade of the centrifugal fan and the volute tongue region of fan duct is known as the main noise source of the centrifugal fan. In this paper, the relative contributions of the volute tongue region of the centrifugal fan is analyzed to utilize as the foundation data of low noise design. The internal hybrid CAA (Computational Aero-Acoustics) method is used to predict noise radiated from the main noise source. This method is the noise prediction technique using CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics), Acoustic analogy, and BEM(Boundary Element Method). The relative contributions of the centrifugal fan volute tongue region using the hybrid CAA method show that the region between the cut-off and the scroll has high contribution than the region between the cut-off and the outlet and the hub region of blade has high contribution than the shroud region of blade. These results is utilized as the important data for the development of low noise centrifugal fan.

Cross-sectional Design and Stiffness Measurements of Composite Rotor Blade for Multipurpose Unmanned Helicopter (다목적 무인헬기 복합재 로터 블레이드의 단면 구조설계 및 강성 측정)

  • Kee, Young-Jung;Kim, Deog-Kwan;Shin, Jin-Wook
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 2019
  • The rotor blade is a key component that generates the lift, thrust, and control forces required for helicopter flight by the torque transmitted through the hub and the blade pitch angle control, and should be designed to factor vibration characteristics so that there is no risk of resonance with structural safety. In this study, the structural design of the main rotor blade for MPUH(Multi-Purpose Unmanned Helicopter) was conducted and the sectional stiffness measurement of the fabricated blade was performed. The evaluation of the vibration characteristics of the main rotor system was then conducted factoring the measured stiffness distribution. The interior of the rotor blade comprised of the skin, spar, and torsion box, and carbon and glass fiber composites were applied. The Ksec2D program was applied to predict the stiffness of blade, and the results were compared to the measured data. CAMRADII, a comprehensive rotorcraft analysis program, was applied to investigate the natural frequency trends and resonance risks due to the rotor rotation.

The Analysis of Competitiveness between Incheon International Airport and main Asia Airports in Air Cargoes (An Application of Reversed Fuzzy Evaluation and Senario Model) (인천국제공항의 항공화물 경쟁력분석에 관한 연구 (퍼지역평가 및 시나리오 분석을 적용하여))

  • Chung, Tae-Won;Park, Young-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.6 s.84
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2005
  • Main airports in the Intra-Asian market have faced competition not only to attract China-bound transshipment cargoes but also to be hub airport in same region. In spite of such a importance, the previous research has been short of evaluation of airport competitiveness. Implication of the previous research has mainly been focused on evaluation of airport critical factor service qualify and efficiency. The aim of this paper is to present critical points that affect airport competitiveness using an algorithm based on reversed fuzzy evaluation and senario method. The results of senario analysis and reversed fuzzy evaluation shows that Incheon international airport needs to enhance service level of 7% as a result of senario analysis and service level of 5% and brand equity level of 10% at the same time as a result of reversed fuzzy evaluation analysis, to ensure competitiveness in same region.

Changes in Export Gateways and the Spatial Patterns of Korean Agri-Food Exports: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis Approach (수출 관문의 변화와 한국 농식품 수출의 공간적 패턴 분석: 의사결정나무 분석의 적용)

  • Hyun, Kisoon
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.90-106
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    • 2018
  • This study suggests a gateway strategy for transporting agri-food exports to expand exports after examining the patterns of Korean agri-food exports by commodities and the role of export gateways. Korean agri-food exports have increased, but processed food exports have increased significantly compared to fresh agricultural products during the last 17 years. More importantly, Busan port is the main agri-food export hub in Korea. Under these circumstances, this paper examines the determinants of processed cereal-based food (HS 19) exports through Busan port using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. As a result, the main factors that help to predict the real value of Korean exports are the GDP of the export destination countries, their distances from Korea and their GNI per capita. The destinations of Korean agri-food exports are finally classified into eight groups, which reveals the characteristics of clusters and provides useful insights for the strategies to expand agri-food exports.

Dynamic Characteristics of Helicopter Bearingless Main Rotor (헬리콥터 무베어링 주로터의 동특성 시험)

  • Yun, Chul Yong;Song, Keun Woong;Kim, Deog-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.439-446
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    • 2016
  • The characteristics of bearingless main rotor of helicopter are investigated through non-rotating tests and rotating tests. The stiffness and natural frequencies of rotor blades, flexbeam, and torque tube which are core components of baearingless rotor are measured to obtain input material properties for rotor analysis. The functional test on ground for assembly of one hub with damper, snubber, and no blade is carried out to check interfaces between components, kinematics of components, and pitch motion ranges under applied loads including centrifugal load. The 4-bladed bearingless rotor with 5.82m of rotor radius is tested on the whirl tower with rotation plane of 9.65m height. The thrust and power are measured to obtain hover performance and the frequencies and dampings of the rotor are obtained by excitation of cyclic pitch by hydraulic actuators.

A Study on Port Improvement with the Activation of Cross-Border E-Commerce: A Study of Pyeongtaek Port

  • Choi, Hyuk-Jun;Jung, Hyun-Jae;Lee, Dong-Hyon
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.34-44
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to present what the port of Pyeongtaek, the hub of Korean trade with China, should improve in the current situation, wherein the e-commerce trade volume between Korea and China is increasing due to the development of online technology. Design/methodology - In this study, through prior research and expert interviews on e-commerce and port activation between borders, we derived the main improvement factors for 1) Administration and Systems, 2) Facilities, 3) Transport, and 4) Manpower, and selected 12 detailed variables for the major improvement factors. To identify the relative importance of the major improvement factors, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was applied, and a survey was conducted among 15 related experts. Findings - As a result, among the 12 detailed variables, Composition of Association (0.267) was the first factor to be improved, followed by Incentive Support (0.143) and E-Commerce Cluster (0.131). Based on these analyses, the main implications of this study are, first, in the current situation where the cross-border e-commerce market is growing, Pyeongtaek Port needs to form a consultative body among the government, local governments, and related businesses in connection with cross-border e-commerce and develop various support policies for the e-commerce market. Second, it will have to be able to provide differentiated services from competing ports by establishing e-commerce market-oriented clusters. Originality/value - In existing related studies, various improvements were presented to revitalize trade in line with the growth of the cross-border e-commerce market. However, with regard to most cross-border e-commerce businesses, one-dimensional improvement measures, such as improvement of payment systems, improvement of customs clearance services, and promotion of human resources, are presented in a piecemeal manner. In other words, none of the studies have proposed the importance and priority of each measure in terms of both the forward-looking and efficient allocation of resources, which is the purpose of this study. Therefore, this study contributed politically, practically, and academically by presenting countermeasures for ports to revitalize cross-border e-commerce and presenting strategic priorities using quantitative analysis methods.

A Study on the Formation and Development of Collective Security System and the Possibility of Security System Shift in East Asia (집단안보체제의 형성 및 발전요인과 동아시아 안보체제의 변화 가능성 연구)

  • Oh, Dongkeon
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2023
  • For the last 70 years, the U.S.-led bilateral security system, or "Hub-and-Spokes" system, has been applied to Northeast Asia, and the system has been successfully settled in terms of stability and economic achievements of the region. Given the increasing complexity of the security environment of East Asia, it is plausible to consider the possibility of a security system shift from bilateral alliances to collective security. In order to analyze the driver of collective security system, this study developed three factors of formation and development of collective security system - main threat, intensity of the threat, and confidence among countries in the system - by reviewing international political theories related to security cooperation. Comparing the formation, development, and achievements of NATO and SEATO, the study figures out that the existence of the main threat, the high intensity of the threat, and the strong confidence among countries in the security system are the primary drivers for a successful collective security system. Based on the result, the study also analyzed the possibility of a security system shift in East Asia. Considering contemporary international conflicts such as U.S.-China strategic competition, Russia-Ukraine War, and growing threats posed by North Korean nuclear and missiles, the study anticipates that the necessity of a collective security system that will replace the current security system of the region would arise. Still, although some issues between countries should be overcome, the growing intensity of the threats will promote cooperation among countries by improving their confidence.

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