• Title/Summary/Keyword: Logit Models

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A Study on Mixed RP/SP Models of Demand Forecasting for Rail Rapid Transit (급행철도 수요예측을 위한 RP와 SP 결합모형에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Choon Bong;Jung, Byung Doo;Hwang, Young Ki;Kim, Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.5D
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    • pp.671-677
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    • 2011
  • A diversity of railway network function enhancement projects such as the double tracking, electrification, and direct operation have been actively executed to improve the railway service. When the new rapid transit is provided, how many people will use it instead of other transports? How will the railway choice behavior be changed? Accordingly, in this paper, the applicability of diverted travel demand forecast methods, by Revealed Preference(RP) and Stated Preference(SP) data was reviewed for Daegu metropolitan rail rapid transit service. As the result of combining RP and SP data, including the sequential and simultaneous approach, the total travel time and travel cost parameters are of the right sign and are highly significant. The simultaneous approach is more efficient in terms of the estimation of coefficients. In particular, methods to improve validity of the Mixed RP/SP models, when RP data is used proportionally, the diverted travel demand can be easily identified by railway fare and travel time service level. Therefore, it is considered that this will practically apply even in other regions as well as Daegu metropolitan railway.

A Study on the Facilities Distribution based on the Choice Model of the Outdoor Leisure-Facilities in a Neighbourhood Unit of the Megalopolis Citizens. -In terms of the Comparison of Choice Models and the Limitations of Use Areas between the Megalopolis- (대도시 주민의 근린옥외여가시설 선택모형을 기초로 한 시설지 배분에 관한 연구)

  • 최기수;김한배;진양교;진상철;허미선
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 1995
  • The megalopolis citizens are reevaluating the expectant value and the perception of leisure aceording to increasing the level of their incomes, The leisure of citizens is increasing in the aspect of quantity and quality of life nowadays In the site planning of leisure, the concrete understanding about people's choice of a leisure site will be the most important thing, not only for the aspect of improvement of the quality of life but also efficiencies of the land use The purposes of chi study are firstly, to find out the factors which are influenced on a choice of Outdoor leisure facilities in neighbourhood unit and to Compare the Characteristics Of Choice models between the three metropolitan areas, secondly, to predict a limitation of use areal according to the change of a needed time based on the metropolitan's standard choice model For the choice model establishment this research used Logit Model which has been used in the field of the traffic, the tourism and the economics. This research made the results which find out the influencing variables with needed times, the accessibility and the percentage of facilities. The lindtations of use areas come out the results which are predicted according to the change of needed times as a most influencing factors. The range of each preferred leisure facility is about 956 meter distant in the neighbourhood park about 644 meter distant in the pocket park about 604 meter distant in the recreation center, about 628 meter distant in the tennis court about 974 meter distant in the private hob by facility and about 528 meter distant in the library from the apartment unit The recreation center and the library are nearer facilities than the other facilities. But these facilities are surveyed to be more or less influenced by an interesting progran, a context of events and the level of useful facilities, etc.

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Value of Travel-Time Savings in Metropolitan Road Freight Transportation with Freight Classification Code (화물품목 분류에 따른 대도시권 공로화물운송의 시간가치 산정)

  • 최창호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2002
  • The objective of this study is to reveal a shipper's preference for road freight transport according to commodity classification code. The shipper's preference in freight transport can be obtained by using value of travel-time savings. The characteristics of freight are so various that the shipper's preference also appear widely different. In these days, there were few attempts to estimate value of freight travel-time savings in Korea. but most of them included only rail or marine freight transport so it couldn't obtain unique travel-time savings for road freight transport. In this study the value of travel-time savings of road freight transport was estimated according to commodity classification code. Revealed preference method and associated binominal logit models were applied to estimate the value of travel-time savings in transit from a Seoul metropolitan commodity flow survey data in 1998. Data sets were segmented by commodity classification code and nineteen binominal legit models were estimated according to segmented groups. The results of this study showed that the value of freight travel-time savings varied wide ranges from 16,441 won to 66,769 won per hour a vehicle along with commodity classification code.

Estimating Ancillary Benefits of GHG Reduction Using Contingent Valuation Method (온실가스 감축의 부수적 가치 추정)

  • Kim, Chung-Sil;Lee, Sang-Ho;Jung, Sang-Ok;Yeo, Jun-Ho;Lee, Sun-Seok
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2010
  • In the contingent valuation method (CVM) survey, we employed double-bounded discrete choice (DBDC) question to investigate the willingness to pay (WTP). The estimation results for the bivariate logit model show that respondents are willing to pay 329,256 won per year. The model with covariate variables suggests that the covariate effects help describe behavioral or preference tendencies. Double-bounded models increase efficiency over single dichotomous choice models, because the answers yes-no or no-yes yield clear bounds on WTP.

The Effect of Experienced Consumers' Concerns on Willingness to Purchase Battery Electric Vehicles (순수전기차 경험 고객의 우려 요인에 따른 전기차 구매 의사 영향)

  • Jeong, Jikhan
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.143-162
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    • 2021
  • Research on consumers' perception and willingness to purchase Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) is necessary to simulate BEVs' deployment in South Korea because South Korea's BEVs market is still in the early stage. This paper derives a theoretical framework for consumer segmentation based on consumers' willingness to purchase before and after BEV usage experience. In particular, this study empirically evaluates consumers' willingness to purchase and concerns using the survey data from BEVs users in either Seoul or the Jeju region. The empirical results from logit models show that experienced consumers' concerns about the heater and air conditioning (HAC) in BEVs decreased the consumers' willingness to buy, while greater daily driving distances increased the consumers' willingness to buy. In addition, the empirical findings from ordered probit models show that experienced consumers' concerns about the short driving distance, the availability of maintenance service (i.e., A/S service) during unexpected events, and the difficulties of driving BEVs up-hill increased the degree of concern about HAC. This paper will provide insights related to consumer segmentation, R&D, marketing strategies, and policy design for policymakers and firms.

A Study on Design Requirements for Smart Parking Services Considering User'S Stated Preferences (사용자 잠재선호특성을 고려한 스마트 주차서비스 설계요건 연구)

  • Jang, Jeong-Ah;Lee, Hyun-Mi;Lee, Won-Woo;Kim, Hyeon-Mi;Kim, Tae-Hyung
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.1279-1286
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    • 2021
  • This study suggests the user's needs for a smart parking service that enables parking lot search and advance reservation service, and is a study on the user's preference selection model related to fees (reservation fee, penalty fee), etc. Two types of user preference models in the form of logit models were constructed by composing a response questionnaire for smart parking service. The first is a model for selecting a smart parking lot, which suggests a situation in which the probability of selection is higher than that of a general parking lot in the relationship between usage fee and cost. The second is a parking ticket reservation discount selection model, and the smart parking service selection probability was analyzed through the relationship model between the reservation amount and the penalty. It can be used as a design requirement that enables sophisticated and various types of smart parking service considering users' preferences.

Bayesian inference of longitudinal Markov binary regression models with t-link function (t-링크를 갖는 마코프 이항 회귀 모형을 이용한 인도네시아 어린이 종단 자료에 대한 베이지안 분석)

  • Sim, Bohyun;Chung, Younshik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we present the longitudinal Markov binary regression model with t-link function when its transition order is known or unknown. It is assumed that logit or probit models are considered in binary regression models. Here, t-link function can be used for more flexibility instead of the probit model since the t distribution approaches to normal distribution as the degree of freedom goes to infinity. A Markov regression model is considered because of the longitudinal data of each individual data set. We propose Bayesian method to determine the transition order of Markov regression model. In particular, we use the deviance information criterion (DIC) (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002) of possible models in order to determine the transition order of the Markov binary regression model if the transition order is known; however, we compute and compare their posterior probabilities if unknown. In order to overcome the complicated Bayesian computation, our proposed model is reconstructed by the ideas of Albert and Chib (1993), Kuo and Mallick (1998), and Erkanli et al. (2001). Our proposed method is applied to the simulated data and real data examined by Sommer et al. (1984). Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to determine the optimal model are used assuming that the transition order of the Markov regression model are known or unknown. Gelman and Rubin's method (1992) is also employed to check the convergence of the Metropolis Hastings algorithm.

An Analysis of Interfuel Substitution of Energy Demand in Korean Manufacturing (한국 제조업부문의 연료용 에너지원간의 대체성 분석)

  • Park, Changsuh;Na, In-Gang
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.593-619
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    • 2004
  • This study analyzes the interfuel substitution of energy demand in Korean manufacturing sector using static and dynamic linear logit models. For the period of 1981~2002, this study uses petroleum, electricity, natural gas and coal as energy sources. According to the empirical results, firstly, the own-price elasticity of coal has been increased steadily even though its elasticity is smallest compared with those of other energy sources. On the other hand, price elasticity of natural gas is largest, but its value has been decreased after 1997. Price elasticities of petroleum and electricity are very stable over the sample period. One of the main features in trends of interfuel substitution is as follows. Substitution effect of a change in price of natural gas on both petroleum and coal has been increased especially after 1997. The implication of the empirical results is summarized as follows: First, the fact of inelastic own-price elasticity of petroleum implies that the dependency of Korean manufacturing sector on petroleum and coal will be persistent even in a sharp fluctuation of petroleum price. Second, the effects of price increase in natural gas on demand for petroleum and coal are very significant. Thus, price decline of natural gas rather than price declines of coal and petroleum could be more effective as an energy price policy for the reduction of $CO_2$ emission. The assessment on this implication will remain for future researches.

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Supply Chain-based Freight Distribution Channel Choice Model using Distribution Channel Analysis (유통경로분석을 통한 공급사슬기반의 화물유통경로선택모형 개발)

  • Go, Yeong-Seung;Park, Dong-Ju;Kim, Chan-Seong;Kim, Hyeon-Su;Park, Min-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study is to develop a supply chain-based freight distribution channel choice model considering shippers' logistics behaviors which will be used for freight demand estimation. For this purpose, this study utilized the distribution channel data of the petrochemical and automobile industries collected by KTDB center. The distribution channel choice models for these industries were developed by including transport mode, time, cost, and shipment size. It was found that the multinomial logit model with transport cost, time and shipment size is the best, and as shipment increases, bigger transport mode is preferred. Generally direct distribution channel with small truck was preferred over the one using distribution center and/or big truck.

Development and Application of the Mode Choice Models According to Zone Sizes (분석대상 규모에 따른 수단분담모형의 추정과 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ju-Yeong;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kim, Do-Gyeong;Jeon, Jang-U
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2011
  • Mode choice model is an essential element for estimating- the demand of new means of transportation in the planning stage as well as in the establishment phase. In general, current demand analysis model developed for the mode choice analysis applies common parameters of utility function in each region which causes inaccuracy in forecasting mode choice behavior. Several critical problems from using common parameters are: a common parameter set can not reflect different distribution of coefficient for travel time and travel cost by different population. Consequently, the resulting model fails to accurately explain policy variables such as travel time and travel cost. In particular, the nonlinear logit model applied to aggregation data is vulnerable to the aggregation error. The purpose of this paper is to consider the regional characteristics by adopting the parameters fitted to each area, so as to reduce prediction errors and enhance accuracy of the resulting mode choice model. In order to estimate parameter of each area, this study used Household Travel Survey Data of Metropolitan Transportation Authority. For the verification of the model, the value of time by marginal rate of substitution is evaluated and statistical test for resulting coefficients is also carried out. In order to crosscheck the applicability and reliability of the model, changes in mode choice are analyzed when Seoul subway line 9 is newly opened and the results are compared with those from the existing model developed without considering the regional characteristics.