• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.83-102
• /
• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
• /
• v.29 no.2 s.43
• /
• pp.233-250
• /
• 2003

We often use the KCID(Korean Cosmetic Ingredient Dictionary) and ICID(International Cosmetic Ingredient Dictionary) within cosmetics research and within their export and import. so far, we do not have a database of a cosmetics' raw materials. Because of this, we consume a lot of time to find the raw material data that is needed. This study constructs a cosmetics' raw material database and develops the program to retrieve it. We used a Linux machine as the equipment for this study and we used Apache web server, MySQL database server and PHP as the tools of this study. 11,817 kinds of raw materials data were registered as ICID, 866 kinds of raw materials data were registered as KCID and 28,008 kinds of raw materials data with registered trade name into the database. Also, The database was composed of the database of the association form. The database of the online form could ultimately reduce the task time as soon as it did its purpose. The product of this study can become a good basis of data to reconfigure. In the future, it can become a good database in relation with different databases.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.12 no.5
• /
• pp.447-458
• /
• 2012

Korean wave which started from Korean drama is continuing its popularity with K-pop in China. This positive effect has lead to increases in Korean product export to China, increase in number of Chinese visitors to Korea and increase in number of Chinese population learning Hangul. In this research, empirical study was conducted to analyze the influence of Korean wave contents (drama, movie, K-pop, games) on Chinese population (their intention to purchase Korean product, visit Korea and learn Hangul.) As the result, it is understood that the most influential Korean wave content on Chinese population's intention to purchase Korean cosmetic and clothing products is drama; it is analyzed that K-pop has noticeable influence as well. Korean drama has the greatest influence on Chinese population's intention to visit Korea, purchase cosmetic or plastic surgery tour package and purchase Korean food. K-pop is analyzed as the second most influential factor among Korean wave contents in this category. Korean wave contents which have the most influence on intention to learn Hangul are Korean drama and K-pop, and it is analyzed that K-pop has greater influence than Hangul in this field.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.43 no.3
• /
• pp.29-40
• /
• 2020

Korean firms have been vigorously searching and exploring overseas market opportunities through export and overseas investment. As of end of 2019, there were more than 80,000 Korean overseas subsidiaries all over the world. With Korean overseas direct investment increasing recently, it became one of the important issues for overseas investors to be successful in the global market. There are a lot of studies on factors influencing the performance of overseas subsidiaries such as 'firm' and 'country' factors. This study empirically examines subsidiary performance determinants with 'industry architectures' by using a sample of 292 overseas Korean firm subsidiaries. Industry architectures are the stable but evolving sets of rules and roles through which labor is divided within a sector. This article considers how industry architectures shape success in international expansion. Industry architectures differ between countries, are not necessarily technologically determined, shape firms' capabilities and their competitive environment, and constitute a distinct level of analysis. We extract antecedents of related theory and empirically test its impact with a survey of Korean firms expanding in emerging economies. We would say this is the first study which tries to focus on industry architectures with the performance of Korean overseas subsidiaries. We find that separability and similarity of industry architectures across countries and localization of subsidiaries are robust and important predictors of success in international expansion. Our results suggest that industry architectures should be added to firm and country as an intermediate level of analysis that helps explain success in international expansion. While we established a pattern, much more remains to be done. We focus on the success of foreign operations, but we do not consider the broader benefits of going abroad, such as the learning or network effects that accrue at the level of the entire firm. The next obvious question is whether the results would differ in the developed market context. These we leave for future research to consider.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
• /
• v.70
• /
• pp.159-179
• /
• 2016

Companies do not be resolved by the FTA services of external aid should be operational by assigning dedicated personnel inside the company. FTA is a choice, not an essential trade agreement requirements. If the exporter contracts to provide a certificate of origin in trade agreements, it shall issue a certificate of origin of goods originating management is performed. When considering the future trend of spreading wide FTA, it should be extended to one year to take advantage of the FTA Certificate of Origin environments utilizing a comprehensive environment for regional countries that require proof of origin between certain countries, such as current. FTA utilization of the future is to utilize the GVC(Global Value Chain) efficiently. In other words, the expansion of the consumer market and take advantage of an efficient production base across borders. These environmental changes are needed development of the FTA utilization promotion and FTA experts. The experts studying how to procure raw materials or intermediate goods exports in a variety of regional foreign countries, to meet the rules of origin is required for a successful FTA utilization. One of the objectives of Origin managers are qualified experts in the country of origin can take advantage of the FTA plan. Therefore, managers of origin shall collect their ability to expand the understanding and information about the industry as an international business perspective beyond the Certificate of Origin. In addition, it should be in their best learning expertise for the introduction and development of country of origin control system in an effort to effectively perform its international FTA utilization. Once the FTA is more widespread in the future and build a common origin information it must not be disconnected until the export enterprises from terminal manufacturers systematically. Therefore origin management is preferred by expanding the knowledge base of teaching and learning in the common sense to the universal subject of specialization from professional schools to promote the relevant departments so that they can be opened in a college or university. An FTA hub linking East and West, also need the confidence that in order to become a center of Glabal Supply Chain Using an FTA Certificate of Origin and stable environment for importers to import products from the country offers. Certificate of Origin and all of them thoroughly exporters and companies related to the administration of origin and should create an atmosphere that can effectively respond to the origin verification. Korea shall endeavor to elicit a geopolitical value (FTA Hub), as well as securing a competitive advantage in the global industry leverage, trading at a reasonable price competitive products thereby enhancing production and economic growth through the FTA.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.35 no.4
• /
• pp.1-29
• /
• 2013

This paper examines the effect of trade liberalization or globalization, more broadly, on plants' growth as well as on "bi-polarization". To do so, we reviewed the possible theoretical mechanisms put forward by recent heterogeneous firm trade theories, and provided available micro-evidence from existing empirical studies on Korean manufacturing sector. Above all, the empirical evidence provided in this paper strongly suggests that globalization promoted growth of Korean manufacturing plants. Specifically, evidence suggests that exporting not only increases within-plant productivity but also promotes introduction of new products and dropping of old products. However, the empirical evidence also suggest that globalization has some downsides: widening productivity differences across plants and rising wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. Specifically, trade liberalization widens the initial productivity differences among plants through learning from export market participation as well as through interactions between exporting and R&D, both of which increase plants' productivity. We also show that there is only a small group of large and productive "superstar" plants engaged in both R&D and exporting activity, which can fully utilize the potential benefits from globalization. Finally, we also show evidence that trade liberalization interacts with innovation to increase the skilled-unskilled wage inequality.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.275-311
• /
• 2007

Hydrogen energy is emphasized as a substitutable energy of carbon-based energy system in the future, since it is non-depletable and clean energy. Long term vision of Korean government on the national energy system is to promote hydrogen energy by 15% of final energy demand until 2040. This study analyzes economic impacts of hydrogen energy development employing a dynamic CGE model for Korea. Frontier technology such as hydrogen energy is featured as slow diffusion at the initial stage due to the learning effect and energy complementarity. Without government intervention, hydrogen energy would be produced upto 6.5% of final energy demand until 2040. However, if government subsidizes sales price of hydrogen energy by 10%, 20%, and 30%, share of hydrogen energy would increase 9.2%, 15.2%, and 37.7% of final energy demand. This result shows that the slow diffusion problem of hydrogen energy as frontier technology could be figured out by market incentive policy. On the other hand, production levels of transportation sector would increase while growth rate of oil and electricity sectors would decline. Household consumption would be affected negatively since increase of consumption due to the price decrease would be overwhelmed by income reduction owing to the increase of tax. Overall, GDP would not decrease or increase significantly since total production, investment, and export would increase even if household consumption declines.

• Journal of Broadcast Engineering
• /
• v.12 no.5
• /
• pp.460-479
• /
• 2007

When culture took large part in industrial area, every country has tried to utilize own cultural contents for educational or commercial purpose and the various cultures and histories are recognized as a main concept or subject so that a number of scholars who study history increase. In video game field, special characteristics of interface that audiences participate in the game to complete story-telling is considered as efficient material for learning process. As observed above, it is important to analyze the games that every country makes and export to the world in which the video games is understood as a play of human in general. This Paper has firstly analyzed the most favorite historical games developed in Korea, the USA, Japan, Taiwan and Germany from 1980 to 2005 and secondly, compared that wars and historical origin appears in game scenario, a world view and background story and finally after point out the preferable era and genre of the countries then propose the promising way of design for historical video games. In the process of analysis of a view and heroes in historical games, we compared the real persons, the real historical events and novel in which 11.8% only employed the real persons in 8 out of 68 games. Also the real history and background story are appeared in 37 games which is 54.4% of them. We discovered that the main material that is popular for each country is the historical backing rather than real persons where the favorite historical background is chosen at which they are proud of; 3-Throne era with strong ancient Gogurye for Korea, the 1st and 2nd World Wars and the Independence War for the USA, the tide of war around Middle age for Japan, ancient history of Europe for Germany. The favorite age for video games is Ancient times with 37 games for 54.4%, Middle Age with 7 games fer 10.3%, the prehistoric age with 5 games for 7.35%, remote age with 1 for 1.47%, while current historical games favor Ancient or Modern Age.

• Cartoon and Animation Studies
• /
• s.37
• /
• pp.393-411
• /
• 2014

The volume of world market for serious game in year 2015 is expected to be about 9.6 trillion, and the volume of educational serious game market is expected to surpass half of the whole serious game market. In Korea, the development of game for educational purpose has dominated around the education enterprises since late 90s. In 2008, 'Serious Game Forum' was founded led by the Ministry of Culture, Sports, and Tourism with experts from many fields in the society and there were progressing of making policies and plans for potential development of the serious game industry, but the effects were not successful than expected. In 2012, the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology announced commercialization policy of digital textbook by 2015 and the serious game for educational purpose got attention again. Then, the serious game market became more vigorous with the dispersion of smart devices.13) As a result, the serious games on the smart devices or interlocking between the online and smart devices became an important issue in development rather than the online only serious games. Math field has international competitive power through export in the educational serious game market which takes more than half of the serious game market. Therefore, developing serious game for math education is a good area to raise competitiveness in domestic and international game industries. Moreover, it has no received preferences from students and parents although it has high potential for positive change of individuals and society. The reason is that students recognize it as educational content rather than a game and they avoid it, while parents recognize it as game but not an education. This phenomenon happens because the game elements and educational elements are not properly mixed but focused only on education or emphasized only the fun factors of game when it was developed. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to suggest a direction of developing serious games effectively combining with elementary math for elementary students to get interested in math while playing games. The research will analyze the current elementary math textbooks and find contents which may be combined with the game genre that elementary students enjoy playing these days. This research received advice from serious game developers and math education expert group to reflect the inclination of elementary school students, and respond to the demands from parents and educational institutions, and suggested a direction of developing serious games for effective math education.