• Title/Summary/Keyword: Investment index

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Price Prediction of Fractional Investment Products Using LSTM Algorithm: Focusing on Musicow (LSTM 모델을 이용한 조각투자 상품의 가격 예측: 뮤직카우를 중심으로)

  • Jung, Hyunjo;Lee, Jaehwan;Suh, Jihae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.81-94
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    • 2022
  • Real estate and artworks were considered challenging investment targets for individual investors because of their relatively high average transaction price despite their long investment history. Recently, the so-called fractional investment, generally known as investing in a share of the ownership right for real-life assets, etc., and most investors perceive that they actually own a piece (fraction) of the ownership right through their investments, is gaining popularity. Founded in 2016, Musicow started the first service that allows users to invest in copyright fees related to music distribution. Using the LSTM algorithm, one of the deep learning algorithms, this research predict the price of right to participate in copyright fees traded in Musicow. In addition to variables related to claims such as transfer price, transaction volume of claims, and copyright fees, comprehensive indicators indicating the market conditions for music copyright fees participation, exchange rates reflecting economic conditions, KTB interest rates, and Korea Composite Stock Index were also used as variables. As a result, it was confirmed that the LSTM algorithm accurately predicts the transaction price even in the case of fractional investment which has a relatively low transaction volume.

Selecting Stock by Value Investing based on Machine Learning: Focusing on Intrinsic Value (머신러닝 기반 가치투자를 통한 주식 종목 선정 연구: 내재가치를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Youn Seung;Yoo, Dong Hee
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.179-199
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    • 2023
  • Purpose This study builds a prediction model to find stocks that can reach intrinsic value among KOSPI and KOSDAQ-listed companies to improve the stability and profitability of the stock investment. And investment simulations are conducted to verify whether stock investment performance is improved by comparing the prediction model, random stock selection, and the market indexes. Design/methodology/approach Value investment theory and machine learning techniques are applied to build the model. Various experiments find conditions such as the algorithm with the best predictive performance, learning period, and intrinsic value-reaching period. This study selects stocks through the prediction model learned with inventive variables, does not limit the holding period after buying to reach the intrinsic value of the stocks, and targets all KOSPI and KOSDAQ companies. The stock and financial data are collected for 21 years (2001-2021). Findings As a result of the experiment, using the random forest technique, the prediction model's performance was the best with one year of learning period and within one year of the intrinsic value reaching period. As a result of the investment simulation, the cumulative return of the prediction model was up to 1.68 times higher than the random stock selection and 17 times higher than the KOSPI index. The usefulness of the prediction model was confirmed in that the number of intrinsic values reaching the predicted stock was up to 70% higher than the random selection.

Analysis of the Influence of Shipping Policies on the Expansion of Korea's Merchant Fleet Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 해운정책이 우리나라 외항선대 증가에 미친 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Bum;Jeon, Jun-Woo;Yeo, Gi-Tae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.23-40
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    • 2015
  • This study measures how Korean shipping policies influence the expansion of the country's merchant fleet using system dynamics. It uses various indexes as factors influencing the gross tonnage of the Korean merchant fleet, such as the Baltic Dry Index, Howe Robinson Container Index, China Containerized Freight Index, and Worldscale Index, as well as the US dollar-Korean won exchange rate, world merchant fleet statistics, and the debt ratio of Korean shipping companies. After establishing the simulation model, the mean absolute percentage error is found to be less than 10%, confirming the accuracy of the model. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to measure the influence of the selected shipping policies, including the gross tonnage of vessels registered under the Korean second registry system, loans of publicly owned financial institutions to shipping companies, ship investment fund, and the number of shipping companies participating in the tonnage tax scheme. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the influence of vessel tonnage and loans to shipping companies is the most significant, while that of the number of companies participating in the tonnage tax scheme is minimal.

Relation Analysis Between REITs and Construction Business, Real Estate Business, and Stock Market (리츠와 건설경기, 부동산경기, 주식시장과의 관계 분석)

  • Lee, Chi-Joo;Lee, Ghang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2010
  • Even though REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are listed on the stock market, REITs have characteristics that allow them to invest in real estate and financing for real estate development. Therefore REITs is related with stock market and construction business and real estate business. Using time-series analysis, this study analyzed REITs in relation to construction businesses, real estate businesses, and the stock market, and derived influence factor of REITs. We used the VAR (vector auto-regression) and the VECM (vector error correction model) for the time-series analysis. This study classified three steps in the analysis. First, we performed the time-series analysis between REITs and construction KOSPI(The Korea composite stock price index) and the result showed that construction KOSPI influenced REITs. Second, we analyzed the relationship between REITs and construction commencement area of the coincident construction composite index, office index and housing price index in real estate business indexes. REITs and the housing price index influence each other, although there is no causal relationship between them. Third, we analyzed the relationship between REITs and the construction permit area of the leading construction composite index. The construction permit area is influenced by REITs, although there is no causal relationship between these two indexes, REITs influenced the stock market and housing price indexes and the construction permit area of the leading composite index in construction businesses, but exerted a relatively small influence in construction starts coincident with the composite office indexes in this study.

A Measurement of Degree of Cargo Concentration in Korean Ports Using the Entropy Index (엔트로피지수에 의한 국내항만의 화물집중도 측정)

  • 박노경
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the degree of cargo concentration at Korean ports using Theil's Entropy and to compare the results with those of Gini coefficient, Hoyle(1983), and Hirshmann-Herfindahl models. The entropy indices were compared with other models after measuring the cargo concentration for the period of 1981-2000 among the 18 Korean ports. The core results of empirical analysis are as follows: first, the empirical results of entropy indices show the following trends: all the ports(concentration except 1996's slight deconcentration), ports in Western area(deconcentration in 1990s and slight concentration in 2000), ports in Southern area(deconcentration in 1980s and 1990s except concentration in 2000), and ports in Eastern area(continuous trends of concentration). However, competition power will be decreased if concentration is increased, because of the character of entropy index. The empirical results of 4 indices except Hoyle model show the comparatively same directions in terms of trends. This study found out the similar results among the following models: All the ports(entropy index & Gini coefficient & H-H model), ports in Western area(Entropy index &Hoyle model), ports in Southern area(Entropy index & Gini coefficient), and ports in Eastern area(Entropy index & H-H index).The policy planner of Korean ports should find out the determination factors of concentration and deconcentration of each ports and decide the investment priority, size and scope for balancing the development of regional ports.

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A Study on the International Competitiveness of Korea′s Information and Telecommunication Industry (정보통신 산업의 국제 경쟁력 분석)

  • 지경용;강신원
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.364-373
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    • 1998
  • This study examines the international competitiveness of the Korean information and telecommunication industry by using competitiveness index such as the RCA index, the Trade Specialization index, and the Total Factor Productivity. The results of this study show that the industry's competitiveness slightly decreases since 1995, but not its the total factor productivity. In conclusion, the industry has kept the competitiveness over all. Therefore, to keep or improve the competitiveness continuously, the industry is required the government's intensive investment and administrative support. And the industry should bring up by venture and small-medium-size-enterprises to have great economic impacts on other industries. Also, the increasing production and export promoting policy will be enhance the industry and improve nation's balance of trade.

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Optimal Feeder Routing for Distribution System Planning Using a Heuristic Strategy (휴리스틱 탐색전략을 이용한 배전계통 계획의 급전선 최적 경로 선정)

  • Choi, Nam-Jin;Kim, Byung-Seop;Shin, Joong-Rin
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.49 no.11
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    • pp.566-574
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    • 2000
  • This paper propose a heuristic algorithm based on the Branch-Exchange (BE) method to solve Optimal feeder Routing(OFR) problem for the distribution system planning. The cost function of the OFR problem is consisted of the investment cost representing the feeder installation and the system operation cost representing the system power loss. We propose a properly designed heuristic strategy, which can handle the horizon-year expansion planning problem of power distribution network. We also used the loop selection method which can define the maximum loss reduction in the network to reduce calculation time, and proposed a new index of power loss which is designed to estimate the power loss reduction in the BE. The proposed index, can be considered with both sides, the low voltage side and voltage side branch connected with tie one. The performances of the proposed algorithms and loss index were shown with 32, 69 example bus system.

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A Conceptual Investment Cost Estimation Using by Cost Indices for the Train Control Facility of High-speed Rail Project (원가지수를 이용한 고속철도 설비의 개략적 투자비 추정기법)

  • Lee, Young-Joo;Lee, Yong-Eok;Jang, Seong-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.194-202
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    • 2011
  • Most of Orders of Magnitude estimate are based on historical data. This data is converted to the current price using by the cost index method mainly. This method, however, is rarely utilized or only for one-time use due to the lack of data and the complex escalation calculation method. This paper present a typical process on the conceptual investment cost estimation using by Cost Indexes based on the actual case for the Train Control facility of High-speed rail project. The result is expected to serve as both an easy way for Order of Magnitude estimate and a standard guideline for computerized modeling.

Market Reaction for KRX SRI Index Revision (KRX SRI Index 구성종목 신규편입 시점의 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Seong-Jun;Kim, Dong-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2016
  • In today's fast-paced capitalistic society, a primary concern is whether to invest capital in any way to increase profits. In recent years, many companies have emphasized ethics and practiced corporate social responsibility activities. These activities are not only required to have at the end of the company. Bringing the ultimate goal of profit maximization is one way to contribute to the development of society and the economy. Investors are aware of corporate social responsibility activities and have begun to reflect this in their investments. We studied the behavior of a newly incorporated company's stock price on the KRX SRI Index using a scale that indicates the level of social responsibility for companies in the domestic stock market. Socially responsible investment involves an excellent company that looks out and looks for additional effects on the stock price of imports and improves the reliability of investors through an event study. The results show that the company we examined has a positive impact on the market. This study confirms the hypothesis that additional stock market reaction will occur when superior companies are newly incorporated in the KRX SRI Index and gain investors' trust. The results demonstrate that becoming a newly incorporated corporation in the KRX SRI Index is positive information to investors.