• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.25-30
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• 2016

It is critical to forecast the maximum daily and monthly demand for power with as little error as possible for our industry and national economy. In general, long-term forecasting of power demand has been studied from both the consumer's perspective and an econometrics model in the form of a generalized linear model with predictors. Time series techniques are used for short-term forecasting with no predictors as predictors must be predicted prior to forecasting response variables and containing estimation errors during this process is inevitable. In previous researches, seasonal exponential smoothing method, SARMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Moving Average) with consideration to weekly pattern Neuron-Fuzzy model, SVR (Support Vector Regression) model with predictors explored through machine learning, and K-means clustering technique in the various approaches have been applied to short-term power supply forecasting. In this paper, SARMA and intervention model are fitted to forecast the maximum power load daily, weekly, and monthly by using the empirical data from 2011 through 2013. $ARMA(2,\;1,\;2)(1,\;1,\;1)_7$ and $ARMA(0,\;1,\;1)(1,\;1,\;0)_{12}$ are fitted respectively to the daily and monthly power demand, but the weekly power demand is not fitted by AREA because of unit root series. In our fitted intervention model, the factors of long holidays, summer and winter are significant in the form of indicator function. The SARMA with MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of 2.45% and intervention model with MAPE of 2.44% are more efficient than the present seasonal exponential smoothing with MAPE of about 4%. Although the dynamic repression model with the predictors of humidity, temperature, and seasonal dummies was applied to foretaste the daily power demand, it lead to a high MAPE of 3.5% even though it has estimation error of predictors.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.167-175
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• 2024

Objectives: Rural housewives are integral to household management and family care, yet their sedentary lifestyles present significant health risks. This study used the transtheoretical model (TTM) to investigate strategies that encourage and maintain regular exercise habits among rural housewives. Methods: A semi-experimental study was conducted in 2021 with 114 housewives aged 30 to 59 who attended rural health centers in Gorgan, Iran. Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 groups. Data collection involved a validated questionnaire that gathered demographic information and constructs of the TTM. The intervention group participated in a comprehensive educational program, which included four 60-minute sessions. Data were collected again 6 months post-intervention and analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics in SPSS version 21. Results: The study encompassed women with an average age of 39.75±6.05 years, the majority of whom had educational levels below a diploma, and over 90% were married. We observed strong correlations between the processes of change, self-efficacy, and decisional balance. At the outset, there were no significant differences in demographics or model structures between the 2 groups. However, 6 months post-intervention, the intervention group exhibited statistically significant differences in the mean scores of model structures, stages of change, and body mass index (p<0.05). Conclusions: This study highlights the importance of physical activity training for rural housewives. The findings suggest that the educational intervention, which utilized the TTM, significantly impacted the participants' model structures and their stages of change.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• 제58권1호
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• pp.14-21
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• 2015

Objective : To study the effect of early intervention and rehabilitation in the expression of aquaporin-4 and ultrastructure changes on cerebral palsy pups model induced by intrauterine infection. Methods : 20 pregnant Wistar rats were consecutively injected with lipopolysaccharide intraperitoneally. 60 Pups born from lipopolysaccharide group were randomly divided into intervention group (n=30) and non-intervention group (n=30); intervention group further divided into early intervention and rehabilitation group (n=10), acupuncture group (n=10) and consolidate group (n=10). Another 5 pregnant rats were injected with normal saline intraperitoneally; 30 pups born from the normal saline group were taken as control group. The intervention group received early intervention, rehabilitation and acupuncture treatment. The motor functions of all pups were assessed via suspension test and modified BBB locomotor score. Aquaporin-4 expression in brain tissue was studied through immunohistochemical and western-blot analysis. Ultrastructure changes in damaged brain and control group were studied electron-microscopically. Results : The scores of suspension test and modified BBB locomotor test were significantly higher in the control group than the intervention and non intervention group (p<0.01); higher in the intervention group than the non-intervention group (p<0.01). The expression of Aquaporin-4 was lower in intervention and non intervention group than in the control group (p<0.01); also lower in non-intervention group than the intervention group (p<0.01). Marked changes were observed in ultrastructure of cortex and hippocampus CAI in brain damaged group. Conclusion : Early intervention and rehabilitation training can improve the motor function in offspring with brain injury and reduce the expression of aquaporin-4 in damaged brain.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권12호
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• pp.5165-5172
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• 2016

Background: Stomach cancer is one of the five most common cancers in Iran. This study examined the effectiveness of a mobile telephone short-message service (SMS) based-education intervention using Health Belief Model (HBM) variables in improving dietary behavior in terms of stomach cancer prevention among a sample of Iranian female college students. Materials and Methods: In this quasi-experimental study, 124 female college students in the dormitories of Yazd University, Yazd, Iran were randomly selected and assigned to either the intervention (n=62) or the control group (n=62). Information (data) regarding HBM variables and dietary behavior related to stomach cancer prevention was collected by a self-administrated questionnaire. Forty eight messages were designed and sent to the participants' phones in the intervention group during the 48-day intervention period. Two groups were followed-up one month after the intervention delivered via SMS. Results: There were significant differences in HBM variables (except for the perceived severity) and the preventive dietary behaviors for stomach cancer in the intervention group compared to the comparison group following the education intervention delivered via SMS. Conclusions: SMS-delivered nutrition education intervention can be a practical strategy to improve dietary behavior related to stomach cancer prevention.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.65-76
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• 2014

주택가격은 정부의 부동산 정책이나 국내외의 경기상황과 같은 외부충격요인에 따라 많은 영향을 받는다. 본 연구에서는 주택가격지수 예측을 위한 모형구축에서 중요한 요인은 외부충격요인으로 이를 개입효과라 하며, 이 외부요인들이 주택가격지수에 미치는 영향을 파악하고 향후 주택가격지수를 효율적으로 예측하기 위한 시계열모형을 찾는데 있다. 실제 자료를 이용하여 분석한 예측결과 개입모형이 다른 모형에 비해 우수한 것으로 나타났다.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.145-160
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• 2011

Objectives: This study attempted to apply the Intervention mapping and Transtheoretical models to develop a program to promote moderate alcohol drinking in university students. Methods: Surveyed data from 1,137 university students were analyzed to identify personal and environmental determinants for alcohol drinking. Based on these determinants, program objectives were established. Crossing the objectives with related important determinants resulted in matrices of learning objectives for which educational strategies were developed. Subsequently, an intervention program were designed to achieve those objectives. Results: Identified personal determinants included awareness, attitudes, self-efficacy and behavioral skills. Environmental determinants were binge drinking behaviors of family members and peers, and social pressure for drinking. Program, impact and learning objectives were developed to change the identified determinants. Program activities included provision of information on positive and negative consequences of binge drinking, opportunities for assessing one's drinking pattern, increasing outcome expectancies of and skill building for monitoring drinking, resisting peer pressure and managing stress. To facilitate adoption and maintenance of the program, an intervention diffusion plan was suggested. An evaluation plan was developed by utilizing RE-AIM framework. Conclusions: In order to expand evidence bases for effective theory-based programs, the developed program should be tested in diverse university settings.

• The Journal of Korean Physical Therapy
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.238-244
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• 2020

Purpose: This study compared the effects of the fascial distortion model (FDM), foam rolling (FR), and self-stretching (SS) on the ankle dorsiflexion range of motion (ROM). Methods: Thirty subjects who had no more than 30° of ankle dorsiflexion ROM at the weight-bearing lunge test were recruited in this study. They were divided into three groups: (FDM, FR, and SS), and underwent each intervention for five minutes. Before and after the intervention, the ankle dorsiflexion ROM in the supine (the open-) and standing (the closed-kinetic chain) of the subjects were tested. The changes in the ROM between pre- and post-intervention and among the groups were analyzed. Results: All groups showed increased ankle dorsiflexion ROM after the intervention in both positions. In the position of the open kinetic chain, the changes in the ROM between pre- and post-intervention had significant differences among the groups, and the FDM was higher than the FR and SS. In the position of the closed kinetic chain, the ROM after the interventions and the changes in the ROM had significant differences among the groups, and FDM was higher than the FR (ROM after the intervention, the change in ROM) and SS (the change in ROM). Conclusion: These findings showed that FDM had more efficiency than the FR and SS as FDM had a stronger effect on increasing ankle dorsiflexion in a short, limited time. Clinicians who have limited time to treat their patients, particularly trying to increase ankle dorsiflexion ROM, should consider the application of FDM.

• 한국학교ㆍ지역보건교육학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2011

Objectives: We describe the development of a smoking and drinking prevention program for adolescents, using intervention mapping. Methods: The study sample consisted of 1,000 high school second-grade students from 6 high schools in Seoul. The PRECEDE model was applied for the needs assessment. We carried out a social diagnosis by assessing the factors such as the quality of life, happiness level, and satisfaction with school life; an epidemiological diagnosis on the perceived health status, stress levels, and priority of health issues; a behavioral diagnosis on the smoking and drinking rate and the intention to smoke and drink; and an educational diagnosis on knowledge, beliefs, attitudes, self-efficacy, outcome expectations, social norms and life skills. Results: The development process included a needs assessment, identifying factors that influence smoking and drinking among adolescents. Intention, knowledge, perceived norms, perceived benefit, perceived cost, perceived susceptibility, self-efficacy, and life skills were identified as determinants. Three performance objectives were formulated to describe what an individual needs to do in order to avoid smoking and drinking. Subsequently, we constructed an intervention matrix by crossing the performance objectives with the selected determinants. Each cell describes the learning objectives of the smoking and drinking prevention program. The program used methods from the transtheoretical model, such as consciousness raising, outcome expectations, self-reevaluation, self-liberation, counterconditioning, environmental reevaluation, and stimulus control. The program deals with the effects of smoking and drinking, self-improvement, decision making, understanding advertisements, communication skills, social relationships, and assertiveness. Conclusions: By using the process of intervention mapping, the program developer was able to ensure a systematical incorporation of empirical and new data and theories to guide the intervention design. Programs targeting other health-related behavior and other methods or strategies can also be developed using this intervention mapping process.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.77-89
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to anticipate the air travel demands over the period of 164 months, from January 1997 to August 2010 using ARIMA-Intervention modeling on the selected sample data. The sample data is composed of the number of the passengers who in the domestic route for Jeju route. In the analysis work of this study, the past events which are assumed to have affected the demands for the air travel routes to Jeju in different periods were used as the intervention variables. The impacts of such variables were reflected in the presupposed demand. The intervention variables used in this study are, respectively, the World Cup event in 2002 (from May to June), 2003 SARS outbreak (from April to May), Tsunami in January 2005, and the influenza outbreak from October to December 2009. The result of the above mentioned analysis revealed that the negative intervention events, like a global outbreak of an epidemic did have negative impact on the air travel demands in a risk aversion by the users of the aviation services. However, in case of the negative intervention events in limited area, where there are possible substituting destinations for the tourists, the impact was positive in terms of the air travel demands for substituting destinations due to the rational expectation of the users as they searched for other options. Also in this study, it was discovered that there is not a binding correlation between a nation wide mega-event, such as the World Cup games in 2002, and the increased air travel demands over a short-term period.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.470-476
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• 2011

본 연구는 KTX 수요를 예측하기 위한 방법으로 개입 ARIMA 모형을 제안하였다. 신선개통과 경제충격으로 인한 시계열의 영향 여부를 파악하기 위해 경부고속철도 2단계 개통과 2008년 금융위기를 분석하였다. 분석결과 금융위기는 통계적으로 유의미한 영향이 없는 것으로 나타났으나, 경부고속철도 2단계는 주중 통행량 17,000 통행/일, 주말 통행량 26,000 통행/일 정도 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 개입이 통행량 시계열에 영향을 미치는 현상을 파악하고, 시계열 자료에 대한 개입효과를 계량적으로 분석했다는 점에서 의의가 있다. 개발된 모형은 KTX 전체 수요를 개략적으로 예측하는데 활용될 수 있으며, KTX O/D별 예측치를 검증하는데 활용이 가능하다.