• Title/Summary/Keyword: Inflation Rate

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A Study on Land price stabilization plan by Developing Prediction model of Land price -Focusing on Jeju special delf-governing province- (토지가격 예측 모형 개발을 통한 토지가격 안정화 방안 연구 -제주특별자치도를 중심으로-)

  • Kang, Kwon-Oh;Yang, Jeong-Cheol;Hwang, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.170-177
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    • 2017
  • The price of land in Jeju is reaching a new high every day and this phenomenon not only causes real difficulties for the purchase of real estate by local residents, but also results in psychological deprivation. Therefore, this study analyzes the factors causing the increase of the land price in Jeju, in order to examine the measures required to stabilize the land price which is continuously rising. As a result of this study, we developed a land price prediction model including seven variables, including the 'inflation rate', 'interest rate', and 'population'. According to the model, land prices in Jeju are expected to rise steadily, and it is predicted that in 2020 the price will increase to 170% of that in 2015 and will triple by 2025. Based on the results of this study, this study suggested policy alternatives, such as 'Establishing a tourism policy for managing the number of tourists' and 'increasing the approval standards for development activities'. The two policies proposed in this study can be implemented as a regional initiative, which may be less effective than the changes in the national system, but it is meaningful that the efforts to stabilize the land price will continue at the regional level.

Statistical review and explanation for Lanchester model (란체스터 모형에 대한 통계적 고찰과 해석)

  • Yoo, Byung Joo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.335-345
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with the problem of estimating the log-transformed linear regression model to fit actual battle data from the Ardennes Campaign of World War II into the Lanchester model. The problem of determining a global solution for parameters and multicollinearity problems are identified and modified by examining the results of previous studies on data. The least squares method requires attention because a local solution can be found rather than a global solution if considering a specific constraint or a limited candidate group. The method of exploring this multicollinearity problem can be confirmed by a statistic known as a variance inflation factor. Therefore, the Lanchester model is simplified to avoid these problems, and the combat power attrition rate model was proposed which is statistically significant and easy to explain. When fitting the model, the dependence problem between the data has occurred due to autocorrelation. Matters that might be underestimated or overestimated were resolved by the Cochrane-Orcutt method as well as guaranteeing independence and normality.

An experimental study on the operation mode of rapid flooding protection system in tunnel (축소모형실험을 통한 터널 내 급속침수 차폐자동화 시스템 작동형태에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Yeon-Deok;Kong, Min-Teak;Hwang, Beoung-Hyeon;Kim, Sang-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1147-1159
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    • 2018
  • This study focuses on the verification of a rapid protection automation system using an inflatable structure. The inflatable structure is an automatic rapid protection system against human and material damage when the subsea tunnel is flooded. Especially, it is essential for construction and operation of subsea tunnels. In this study, we have experimentally verified the rapid protection automation system using the inflatable structure designed for this problem. In order to verify this, a model tunnel with a 40: 1 reduction ratio was constructed, and air pressure of 0.1 bar and 0.15 bar was injected to divide the tunnel according to the expansion rate at 10 sec and 20 sec. According to the results of the study, the protection efficiency was better at 0.15 bar than 0.1 bar when the expansion structure was expanded, and the protection efficiency and influent control efficiency were different according to the pneumatic injection time of the inflating structure. As a result of this study, it was found that the higher the internal air pressure of the inflated structure and the faster the inflation of rate, the more effectively the inflated structure was inflated. As a result of this study, it is necessary to further study the wedge type structure which is useful for the storage method of expansion structure, shape and expansion derivative, inhibition of expansion structure during protection and control of inflow water.

An Analysis on the Effect of Japanese Monetary Policy in 21C (21c 일본 통화정책 효과에 대한 분석)

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.105-125
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    • 2016
  • The expansionary monetary policy was practiced after 2001 in Japan to treat the deflation spiral, and reduced only the nominal interest rates and domestic household demand. One of the most serious factors for this failure was the change of private sector's expectancy. This paper has studied the effect of Japanese monetary policy in 21c., with empirical research based on a renewed macroeconomic model and the VAR. The empirical analysis shows that the effect of monetary policy on the national income during 2001.01-2015.03 is weaker than that of 1985.01-1994.04. Money volume has a diminutive effect on the growth of GDP within a short term after 2001. The change in the expectations of the private sectors might have been the cause of ineffectiveness of the expansive monetary policy. Economic agents learned from the past Japanese financial crisis that an expansive monetary policy increased the inflation rate and caused the 'bubbles to burst' afterwards. The VAR analysis says that the effectiveness of monetary policy on the economic depression declined over the past 20 years and the expansion of money volume has no influence on exchange rate and net export. This means that the expansive monetary policy lost its effect on net export and national income steadily. Monetary policy makers have to recognize this fact, and to consider another anti-cycle political instrument, i.e. the fiscal policy with government debt.

Relationship between Stock Market & Housing Market Trends and Liquidity (주식시장과 주택시장의 동향 및 유동성과의 관계)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2021
  • Governments of each country are actively implementing fiscal expansion policies to recover the real economy after Corona 19. In Korea, the stock market and housing market are greatly affected as liquidity in the market increases due to the implementation of disaster subsidies and welfare policies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between stock market and housing market trends and liquidity. Data were collected by the Bank of Korea and Kookmin Bank. The analysis period is from January 2000 to December 2020, and monthly data are used. For empirical analysis, the rate of change from the same month of the previous year was calculated for each variable, and numerical analysis, index analysis, and model analysis were performed. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the stock index showed a positive(+) relationship with the house price, while a negative(-) relationship with M2. Previous studies have suggested that, in general, an increase in liquidity affects the stock market and the housing market, and inflation also rises. In this study, it was found that the stock market and the housing market had an effect on each other. However, it was investigated that liquidity showed an inverse relationship with the stock market and had no relationship with the housing market. Through this, this study estimated that there is a time difference in the relationship between liquidity and the stock market & housing market.

Economic Analysis of the Livestock Manure Treatment System Using Life-Cycle Cost Technique (LCC 기법을 통한 가축분뇨처리시설의 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, J.H.;Cho, S.H.;Kwag, J.H.;Choi, D.Y.;Jeong, K.H.;Chung, U.S.;Chung, M.S.;Park, S.K.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.17 no.sup
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2011
  • To assess the total cost with all stages of facilities, the feasibility of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis was examined in this study to estimate the livestock manure treatment system and optimal decision making process. For the economic evaluation, the plant/equipment investment and annual operation cost of four Public Livestock Recycling Facilities, whose treatment capacity is 100 ton piggery manure per day, was compared. The initial cost was in the range of 2,699 million won to 3,202 million won, where T and E methods were highest and lowest, respectively. The annual operation cost was in the level of 378 million to 498 million won, which decreased in the following order : T method > J method > E method > B method. For the LCC analysis, 4.7% of interest rate, 3.13% of inflation rate, and 1.52% of net discount rate was considered by the data received from Bank of Korea and Statics Korea in the period of 2000 to 2009. Also, for the calculation of present value factor, the durable years of civil engineering & construction, machinery and electric instrument was 30 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively. Based on these consideration, operation cost was in the range of 17,570 won/ton to 20,661 won/ton, and E method (17,570 won/ton) was economical and B method (20,661 won/ton) was non-economical. Though initial cost of T method was higher than that of B method, LCC analysis of T method was lower than that of T method due to the lower operation cost. Therefore, LCC analysis, which considers both initial cost and operation cost, is more reasonable evaluation method than either initial cost or annual operation cost. For the change of LCC analysis according to the uncertainty, the sensitivity analysis was carried out using fluctuation magnitude of discount rate in the period of 2000 to 2009. As a result, LCC analysis evaluated by discount rate was stable for the uncertain factors since the cost leadership did not change even though the sensitivity analysis varied. In summary, the economic evaluation using LCC analysis could be an efficient reference to choose the suitable livestock manure treatment plants. Furthermore, standardization of statement calculation for the actual cost analysis should be conducted and more detailed study is necessary to validate this summary. Therefore, the application of comprehensive technology evaluation, which considers LCC analysis, should contribute in obtaining objectivity and enhancing reliability for the 'Evaluation of Livestock Manure Treatment System and its Technology'.

Critical Approach to the Discourse of Livelihood in Korean Newspaper's Editorial (민생 없는 민생 담론 -한국 종합일간지 사설에 대한 비판적 담론 분석)

  • Lee, JungMin;Lee, SangKhee
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.67
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    • pp.88-118
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    • 2014
  • This study attempted to clarify (1) the meaning of 'people's livelihood (Minsaeng, 民生)' conveyed by the newspapers in Korean society and the specific matter it refers to, and (2) consider the discourse formed by the newspapers and what does and does not change in that discourse over the passage of time. Editorials were classified and analyzed based on the framework of Fairclough's critical discourse analysis(CDA). It was clear, from the political perspective, that the discourse was respectively formed and changed for each administration. The discourse on 'people's livelihood' was critical and at the same time generally negative, because it dealt with the important social incidents or controversies of the time. The discourse on 'people's livelihood' related to the massive social streams of Korea's democratization and globalization process. Whereas the discourse on 'people's livelihood' in the 1990s, seen from an economic perspective, tried to resolve labor strikes, inflation rate, housing problem, and financial crisis. The discourse in the 2000s changed to issues ranging from economic growth and distribution to bi-polarization problem, job creation, abolishment of non-regular employments, etc. The meaning of 'people's livelihood' produced in the editorials of the major daily newspapers is different from the word's dictionary definition as 'the people's lives'.

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Effect of Intraoperative Continuous I.V. Fentanyl on Tourniquet Induced Cardiovascular Changes and Postoperative Preemptive Analgesia in Total Knee Replacements (슬관절 전치환술 중 지속 정주한 Fentanyl이 압박띠로 인한 심혈관계 변화 및 수술 후 선행 진통에 미치는 효과)

  • Lee, Jong Won;Jun, Jong Hun;Kim, Young Sun;Cheong, Mi Ae;Shim, Jae Chol;Kim, Kyo Sang
    • The Korean Journal of Pain
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.165-170
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    • 2005
  • Background: It is difficult to treat tourniquet-induced hypertension despite adequate anesthesia, and the mechanism of that is not known. And it may be possible that intraoperative continuous infusion of opioid induces preemptive analgesia postoperatively. We investigated the effect of intraoperative continuous i.v. fentanyl on tourniquet induced cardiovascular changes and postoperative preemptive analgesia in total knee replacements. Methods: Sixty patients were randomly assigned to two groups; In study group ($1.5{\mu}g/kg$ loading and $0.5{\mu}g/kg/hr$ continuous infusion of fentanyl before skin incision and tourniquet inflation) and control group (no treatment). Anesthesia was maintained with enflurane (1-2 MAC) and 50% nitrous oxide in oxygen. Arterial pressure and heart rate were compared between two groups. They received postoperative pain treatment with patient-controlled analgesia (PCA) with fentanyl during the postoperative 48 hours after total knee replacement. Visual analog scale (VAS) scores at either rest or movement were used to assess pain. Total fentanyl dose delivered, number of PCA requests, supplemental analgesics, overall satisfaction score and adverse events were evaluated. Results: There were no significant differences between the two groups on cardiovascular changes by tourniquet induced pain effect. VAS, PCA delivered dose and PCA demands at movement in the 24-48 hour decreased in study group compared with control group (P < 0.05). But there were no significant differences between the two groups on the other time periods except 24-48 hour's patient satisfaction and adverse events. Conclusions: We suggest that intraoperative continuous i.v. fentanyl infusion dose not affect cardiovascular change by tourniquet induced pain. But it may induce preemptive analgesia postoperatively.

Development for the function of Wind wave Damage Estimation at the Western Coastal Zone based on Disaster Statistics (재해통계기반 서해 연안지역의 풍랑피해예측함수 개발)

  • Choo, Tai Ho;Kwak, Kil Sin;Ahn, Si Hyung;Yang, Da Un;Son, Jong Keun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.14-22
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    • 2017
  • The frequency and scale of natural disasters due to the abnormal climate phenomena caused by global warming have being increasing all over the world. Various natural disasters, such as typhoons, earthquakes, floods, heavy rain, drought, sweltering heat, wind waves, tsunamis and so on, can cause damage to human life. Especially, the damage caused by natural disasters such as the Earthquake of Japan, hurricane Katrina in the United States, typhoon Maemi and so on, have been enormous. At this stage, it is difficult to estimate the scale of damage due to (future) natural disasters and cope with them. However, if we could predict the scale of damage at the disaster response level, the damage could be reduced by responding to them promptly. In the present study, therefore, among the many types of natural disaster, we developed a function to estimate the damage due to wind waves caused by sea winds and waves. We collected the damage records from the Disaster Report ('91~'14) published by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security about wind waves and typhoons in the western coastal zone and, in order to reflect the inflation rate, we converted the amount of damage each year into the equivalent amount in 2014. Finally, the meteorological data, such as the wave height, wind speed, tide level, wave direction, wave period and so on, were collected from the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency)'s web sites, for the periods when wind wave and typhoon damage occurred. After that, the function used to estimate the wind wave damage was developed by reflecting the regional characteristics for the 9 areas of the western coastal zone.

A Study on the Export Potential of Bangladesh's Ready-Made Garments (중력모형을 이용한 방글라데시 의류 유망 수출시장 추정)

  • Hossain, Sumon;Oh, Keunyeob
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.87-108
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    • 2018
  • This article explores the international trade flow of Bangladesh's ready-made garments (RMG). We first suggest the brief history and an international structure of trade among countries by using the trade volume. Then we implemented a gravity model regression with the sample of 38 major partner countries in order to investigate the potential export market for the RMG industry. The fixed effect and random effect model for the panel data during the period of 1990 to 2011 are estimated. Our result shows that Bangladesh's RMG exports are affected positively by the size of economy, inflation, exchange rate, foreign direct investment(FDI) and trade openness. On the other hand, the distance between trading partners are related negatively with the trade volume. We used the estimated coefficients from the panel regression in order to predict RMG export potential of Bangladesh. This might show which country is the promising export market for Bangladesh RMG industry. We found that Bangladesh has the highest potential of RMG export with Japan and USA, which seem to have considerable room for export growth if trade barriers and constraints are removed. We added some policy implications for encouraging the RMG export of Bangladesh by using the results from the analysis.