• Title/Summary/Keyword: Inference models

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Bayesian Spatiotemporal Modeling in Epidemiology: Hepatitis A Incidence Data in Korea (역학분야에서의 베이지안 공간시간 모델링: 한국 A형 간염 자료)

  • Choi, Jungsoon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.933-945
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    • 2014
  • Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis is of considerable interest to epidemiological applications because health data is collected over space-time with complicated dependency structures. A basic concept in spatiotemporal modeling is introduced in this paper to analyze space-time disease data. The paper reviews a range of Bayesian spatiotemporal models and analyzes Hepatitis A data in Korea.

A Sequential Monte Carlo inference for longitudinal data with luespotted mud hopper data (짱뚱어 자료로 살펴본 장기 시계열 자료의 순차적 몬테 칼로 추론)

  • Choi, Il-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.1341-1345
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    • 2005
  • Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are a set of powerful and versatile simulation-based methods to perform optimal state estimation in nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models. We can use Monte Carlo particle filters adaptively, i.e. so that they simultaneously estimate the parameters and the signal. However, Sequential Monte Carlo techniques require the use of special panicle filtering techniques which suffer from several drawbacks. We consider here an alternative approach combining particle filtering and Sequential Hybrid Monte Carlo. We give some examples of applications in fisheries(luespotted mud hopper data).

A Study on Designing Intelligent Military Decision Aiding System in a Network Computing Environment (네트웍 컴퓨팅 환경하에서의 지능형 군사적 의사결정시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • 김용효;박상찬
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.18-40
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    • 1998
  • This paper is aimed to design an intelligent military decision aiding system in a network computing environment, especially focusing on designing an intelligent analytic system that has data mining tools and inference engine. Through this study, we concluded that the intelligent analytic system can aid military decision making processes. Highlights of the proposed system are as follows : 1) Decision making time can be reduced by the On-line and Real-time analysis ; 2) Intelligent analysis on military decision problems in network computing environments in enabled; 3) The WWW-based implementation models, which provide a standard user interface with seamless information sharing and integration capability and knowledge repository.

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An Efficient Web Ontology Storage Considering Hierarchical Knowledge for Jena-based Applications

  • Jeong, Dong-Won;Shin, Hee-Young;Baik, Doo-Kwon;Jeong, Young-Sik
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2009
  • As well as providing various APIs for the development of inference engines and storage models, Jena is widely used in the development of systems or tools related with Web ontology management. However, Jena still has several problems with regard to the development of real applications, one of the most important being that its query processing performance is unacceptable. This paper proposes a storage model to improve the query processing performance of the original Jena storage. The proposed storage model semantically classifies OWL elements, and stores an ontology in separately classified tables according to the classification. In particular, the hierarchical knowledge is managed, which can make the processing performance of inferable queries enhanced and stores information. It enhances the query processing performance by using hierarchical knowledge. For this paper an experimental evaluation was conducted, the results of which showed that the proposed storage model provides a improved performance compared with Jena.

Using Bayesian Estimation Technique to Analyze a Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data (베이지안 추정법을 이용한 양분선택형 조건부 가치측정모형의 분석)

  • Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.99-119
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    • 2002
  • As an alternative to classical maximum likelihood approach for analyzing dichotomous choice contingent valuation (DCCV) data, this paper develops a Bayesian approach. By using the idea of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation, the approach enables one to perform exact inference for DCCV models. A by-product from the approach is welfare measure, such as the mean willingness to pay, and its confidence interval, which can be used for policy analysis. The efficacy of the approach relative to the classical approach is discussed in the context of empirical DCCV studies. It is concluded that there appears to be considerable scope for the use of the Bayesian analysis in dealing with DCCV data.

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Speech Recognition of Multi-Syllable Words Using Soft Computing Techniques (소프트컴퓨팅 기법을 이용한 다음절 단어의 음성인식)

  • Lee, Jong-Soo;Yoon, Ji-Won
    • Transactions of the Society of Information Storage Systems
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 2010
  • The performance of the speech recognition mainly depends on uncertain factors such as speaker's conditions and environmental effects. The present study deals with the speech recognition of a number of multi-syllable isolated Korean words using soft computing techniques such as back-propagation neural network, fuzzy inference system, and fuzzy neural network. Feature patterns for the speech recognition are analyzed with 12th order thirty frames that are normalized by the linear predictive coding and Cepstrums. Using four models of speech recognizer, actual experiments for both single-speakers and multiple-speakers are conducted. Through this study, the recognizers of combined fuzzy logic and back-propagation neural network and fuzzy neural network show the better performance in identifying the speech recognition.

In-Situ Diagnosis of Vapor-Compressed Chiller Performance for Energy Saving

  • Shin Younggy;Kim Youngil;Moon Guee-Won;Choi Seok-Weon
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.1670-1681
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    • 2005
  • In-situ diagnosis of chiller performance is an essential step for energy saving business. The main purpose of the in-situ diagnosis is to predict the performance of a target chiller. Many models based on thermodynamics have been proposed for the purpose. However, they have to be modified from chiller to chiller and require profound knowledge of thermodynamics and heat transfer. This study focuses on developing an easy-to-use diagnostic technique that is based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The effect of sample data distribution on training the ANFIS is investigated. It is found that the data sampling over 10 days during summer results in a reliable ANFIS whose performance prediction error is within measurement errors. The reliable ANFIS makes it possible to prepare an energy audit and suggest an energy saving plan based on the diagnosed chilled water supply system.

A Bayesian Approach to Linear Calibration Design Problem

  • Kim, Sung-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.105-122
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    • 1995
  • Based on linear models, the inference about the true measurement x$_{f}$ and the optimal designs x (nx1) for the calibration experiments are considered via Baysian statistical decision analysis. The posterior distribution of x$_{f}$ given the observation y$_{f}$ (qxl) and the calibration experiment is obtained with normal priors for x$_{f}$ and for themodel parameters (.alpha., .betha.). This posterior distribution is not in the form of any known distributions, which leads to the use of a numerical integration or an approximation for the calculation of the overall expected loss. The general structure of the expected loss function is characterized in the form of a conjecture. A near-optimal design is obtained through the approximation nof the conditional covariance matrix of the joint distribution of (x$_{f}$ , y$_{f}$ $^{T}$ )$^{T}$ . Numerical results for the univariate case are given to demonstrate the conjecture and to evaluate the approximation.n.

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Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling of Complex Nonlinear System Using a mGA (mGA를 사용한 복잡한 비선형 시스템의 뉴로-퍼지 모델링)

  • Choi, Jong-Il;Lee, Yeun-Woo;Joo, Young-Hoon;Park, Jin-Bae
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2000.07d
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    • pp.2305-2307
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    • 2000
  • In this paper we propose a Neuro-Fuzzy modeling method using mGA for complex nonlinear system. mGA has more effective and adaptive structure than sGA with respect to using the changeable-length string. This paper suggest a new coding method for applying the model's input and output data to the number of optimul rules of fuzzy models and the structure and parameter identifications of membership function simultaneously. The proposed method realize optimal fuzzy inference system using the learning ability of Neural network. For fine-tune of the identified parameter by mGA, back-propagation algorithm used for optimulize the parameter of fuzzy set. The proposed fuzzy modeling method is applied to a nonlinear system to prove the superiority of the proposed approach through compare with ANFIS.

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Integrity Assessment for Reinforced Concrete Structures Using Fuzzy Decision Making (퍼지의사결정을 이용한 RC구조물의 건전성평가)

  • 박철수;손용우;이증빈
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2002.04a
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    • pp.274-283
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents an efficient models for reinforeced concrete structures using CART-ANFIS(classification and regression tree-adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system). a fuzzy decision tree parttitions the input space of a data set into mutually exclusive regions, each of which is assigned a label, a value, or an action to characterize its data points. Fuzzy decision trees used for classification problems are often called fuzzy classification trees, and each terminal node contains a label that indicates the predicted class of a given feature vector. In the same vein, decision trees used for regression problems are often called fuzzy regression trees, and the terminal node labels may be constants or equations that specify the Predicted output value of a given input vector. Note that CART can select relevant inputs and do tree partitioning of the input space, while ANFIS refines the regression and makes it everywhere continuous and smooth. Thus it can be seen that CART and ANFIS are complementary and their combination constitutes a solid approach to fuzzy modeling.

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