• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.47-66
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• 2018

This study analyzes the potential economic effects of a trade war between the U.S. and China. The CGE model is used to estimate the macroeconomic variables of each country and the change in imports/exports by industry by considering three different scenarios: (i) the US imposes a 25% of tariff on China; (ii) the US and China impose a 25% tariff bilaterally; (iii) the United States expands protection in vehicles and metals to Korea, Japan, and the EU. According to the results of the study, when the US and China initiate a trade war, GDP and welfare of both countries decline. China's decline in GDP and welfare are larger than those of the United States, which implies a trade war is more favorable to the U.S. than to China. In the long run, China's GDP and welfare decline widens further. While the trade volumes of the US and China are greatly reduced, the trade volumes of other countries does not significantly fluctuate. Finally, if the US extends protection policy to Korea, Japan and the EU, it creates undesirable effects on the US. In particular, damage to the US jeopardizes its advantageous position in a trade war with China. In order to emphasize the unfairness of protectionist policy and the damage to Korean industry, Korea needs to establish a strategy to counter US protectionist policy.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.221-234
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• 2014

Recently, the Chinese beef consumption market has faced a sudden surge. With China's beef imports reaching $1.33 billion in 2013, the global market closely monitors China's rising consumption of beef. Because there have been no exports of Korean beef (Hanwoo) to China previously, the negative effects of opening of beef market between South Korea and China are speculated as the South Korean government advances FTA negotiations further with China. In order to prepare for the opening of beef market between the two nations and to understand Hanwoo's export competitiveness, our research team conducted a market research on beef price and quality in Beijing and Shanghai. Based on our research, we deduced the price of Hanwoo and analyzed the price competitiveness of Hanwoo in the emerging Chinese beef market. Based on the market research, the price competitiveness of Hanwoo's topside/inside, rib and loin are well-positioned compared to Chinese and imported high-end beef group in Beijing and Shanghai market. Specifically, the price competitiveness of Hanwoo's topside/inside and loin are dominant in Beijing while that of rib and loin are dominant in Shanghai.

• Strategy21
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• s.31
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• pp.142-163
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• 2013

Ieodo is a submerged rock within a Korea's Exclusive Economic Zone(EEZ) in the East China Sea with its most shallow part about 4.6m below the sea level which has no specific rights for the EEZ delimitation. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) stipulates that any coastal state has the rights to claim an EEZ that stretches up to 200 nautical miles from its shore, except where there is an overlap with a neighboring country's claims. Korea claims that Ieodo is within its EEZ as it sits on the Korean side of the equidistant line and the reef is located on the Korea section of the continental shelf. China does not recognize Korea's application of the equidistance principle and insists that Ieodo lies on its continental shelf. According to UNCLOS, Ieodo is located in international waters, rather than one country's EEZ as the two countries have failed to reach a final agreement over the delimitation of the maritime border. This study seeks to understand the evolution of the People's Liberation Army Navy(PLAN) strategy as main obstacles for the EEZ delimitation between Korea and China. PLAN's Strategy evolves from "coastal defense" to "offshore defence", since the late 1980s from a "coastal defence" strategy to an "offshore defence" strategy which would extend the perimeter of defence to between 200 nm and 400 nm from the coast. China's economic power has increased It's dependence on open trade routes for energy supplies and for its own imports and exports. China want secure Sea Lane. PLAN's "offshore defence" strategy combines the concept of active defence with the deployment of its military forces beyond its borders. China's navy try to forward base its units and to achieve an ocean going capability. China's navy expects to have a 'Blue Water' capability by 2050. China insists that coastal states do have a right under UNCLOS to regulate the activities of foreign military forces in their EEZs. China protests several times against US military forces operating within It's EEZ. The U.S. position is that EEZs should be consistent with customary international law of the sea, as reflected in UNCLOS. U.S. has a national interest in the preservation of freedom of navigation as recognized in customary international law of the sea and reflected in UNCLOS. U.S. insists that coastal states under UNCLOS do not have the right to regulate foreign military activities in their EEZs. To be consistent with its demand that the U.S. cease performing military operations in china's EEZ, China would not be able to undertake any military operations in the waters of South Korea's EEZ. As such, to preserve its own security interests, China prefers a status quo policy and used strategic ambiguity on the Ieodo issue. PLAN's strategy of coastal defence has been transformed into offensive defence, Korea's EEZ can be a serious limitation to PLAN's operational plan of activities. Considering China'a view of EEZs, China do not want make EEZ delimitation agreement between Korea and China. China argues that the overlapping areas between EEZs should be handled through negotiations and neither side can take unilateral actions before an agreement is reached. China would prefer Ieodo sea zone as a international waters, rather than one country's EEZ.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.47-85
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• 2009

With a relatively simple quantitative method, this study comprehensively analyzes the characteristics related to business cycles represented by macroeconomic variables of Korea since 1970. This empirical analysis deals with roughly following three topics: How to identify cyclical component with respect to trend; with what characteristics and how the economic variables of each sector move with in the phases of business cycle, and; whether there are signs of a structural change in the phases of business cycle. Section 2 discusses how to identify trends and cycle components, the basis assumption for the analysis of business cycle. Like the Korean economy, where a relatively high growth rate has been maintained, it is appropriate to determine its economic recession based on the fall in the growth trend, not in the absolute level of real output. And, it is necessary to apply the concept of growth cycle against a traditional concept of business cycle. Accordingly the setting of growth trend is of preliminary importance in identifying cyclical fluctuations. The analysis of Korea's GDP data since 1970, the decomposition of trends and cycles through the Band-pass filter is found to appropriately identify the actual phases of busyness cycle. Section 3 analyzes what particular relationship various economic variables have with output fluctuations during the phases of economic cycle, using the corss-correlation coefficients and prediction contribution. Section 4 monitors the stability of the phases of Korea's business cycle and quantitatively verifies whether there is a structural break, and then reviews the characteristics of variations in each sector. And, stylized facts observed through these studies are summarized in the conclusion. The macroeconomic stability of Korea, in particular, is found to continue to improve since 1970, except for the financial crisis period. Not only that, it is found that its volatility of economic growth rate as well as inflation have been reduced gradually. Meanwhile, until recently since 2000, the volatility in domestic demand has remained stable, while that in exports and imports has been increased slightly. But, in an over all perspective, Korea's business cycle variation is on the decline due to shorter response period to shocks and the formation of complementary relationship among economic sectors.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.167-175
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• 2002

Busan Port which is the representative social overhead capital facilities for international trade of goods has need the driving force for economic development in Korea. Therefore, the central government should play the major role in building a rear road to Busan Port in order that it may function as a moor port of Northeastern Asia through the systemization of mutual assistance among connected facilities, completely equipped with port-related facilities befitting to the principal port of imports and exports. In this study, the validity of container tax is being examined, analyzing container tax which is considered as an obstacle to the development of Busan Port and its purpose, and grasping the present conditions by the realistic speculation on container tax issues and its abolition. First, the port rear road as a social overhead capital facilities, which connects port and expressway, should be considered as part of port, and port is social overhead capital invested by government. Second, the Busan City imposes taxes on container. As a result, a shipper and a shipping company are paying a double charge by paying container tax with port dues. Third, Empty container and Tranship container are the factor of Busan city traffic jam but their was excluded from container tax. This is deviate from equilibrium of the tax object. Forth, it has bad influence upon the competitiveness of Busan Port as Northeastern logistics base, as other ports who are competing with Busan Port like china, Taiwan, Japan's port make their competitiveness strong by decreasing the cost of port dues.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.277-296
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• 2017

More than 95% of imports and exports in the World are being transported by vessels. In other words, marine transportation accounts for a large portion of share in the world trade. The purpose of this study is to analyze factors of seaborne trade volume according to items affecting on the world economy. This study conducted a linear regression analysis between seaborne trade volume and the world economy (world GDP) to estimate the correlation between them. Panel data analysis and random effects model analysis have been applied to examine the effect of seaborne trade volume. For this study, the seaborne trade volume is categorized into 10 items, and estimated how much global GDP will be affected when the trade volume changes. In addition, the granger causality test was conducted to verify the relationship between seaborne trade volume and the world GDP. As a result, seaborne trade volume and the world GDP were mutually influenced each other. However, seaborne trade volume affects the world economy more significantly. The items affecting world economic growth include petroleum products, crude oil, chemical products, and so on. The estimated value of the coefficients of petroleum products, crude oil and chemical products were 1.014, 1.013 and 1.010, respectively. The estimated value 1.014 of petroleum products means that the growth rate is 1.014 times higher than the current world GDP growth rate when the seaborne trade volume of petroleum products increased by one unit Lastly, this study examines the seaborne trade volume of 10 categories and then verifies whether the growth rate of world GDP will increase when the volume of seaborne trade increased. This study is expected to provide policy-makers with useful information about formulating policies related to international trade.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.9
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• pp.691-699
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• 2020

South Korea's available water resources per capita is very small compared to global average as there is a high population on small land. Thus, it is imperative to secure water resources for the safe livelihood of the citizens. As an advanced, industrialized country, South Korean economic dependence on agricultural has greatly lowered. Unless South Korea utilizes foreign water resources, it is impossible to provide agricultural and livestock products the same as current levels. However, virtual water-related research in South Korea is still inadequate. When establishing the water resources plan, it does not consider the international trade of virtual water. This research aims to solve this issue by analyzing the international virtual water trends focusing on South Korea. Consequently, the export and import of virtual water trade was identified according to country and item for 248 countries and South Korea. According to the results, South Korea's agricultural and livestock virtual water has much higher imports than exports, which outputs with agricultural by-products being the main import. In 2018, South Korea imported 72.2 billion ㎥, which is 29 times the exported amount of 2.5 billion ㎥. The research results can be used as baseline data for establishing the national water resources plan in the future.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.587-635
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to develop the Global Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (Global CGE Model) in order to produce an economic impact analysis, including prospective obligations for the Post-2012 regime. This model explores the impact of an international emissions trading market and macroeconomic variables such as GNP, consumption, investment, imports and exports, in accordance with potential increased obligations on the Republic of Korea. Distinguishing it from existing studies, this Global CGE Model divides the global community into major economic groups, and in the capacity of the analyzed global model, reflecting the principle nations' macroeconomic indicators through the theoretical approach of endogenous growth theory. Policies such as an emissions trading scheme and carbon tax are reflected in the model. Also, in particular, the model reflects exogenous technological advances. According to this analysis, the stronger the greenhouse gas reductions, the greater the adverse effects on the economy; among macroeconomic indicators that appear, a significant decline is realized in the balance of trade, along with a significant decrease in investment and consumption. Energy dependence, in particular, plays a large role-varying in degree by industry type-, as greenhouse gas reductions would have a greater impact on energy-intensive industries. Furthermore, if Korea, currently recognized as a developing country, is given the obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, competing countries such as China and other developing countries will be given an advantage.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.19-40
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• 2019

Ports have been facing the adverse impacts of the global recession. In terms of imports, with a vast consumption hinterland, the Incheon Port has developed as the metropolitan's gateway. Additionally, the port's exports to China has been increasing due to a consistent increase in the demand of cold chain foods in the country. Considering the short distance between the Incheon Port and the ports in Northern China, the Incheon Port can serve as a logistics hub and a distribution center for exporting processed foodstuffs to China. The establishment of a cold chain logistics system at the Incheon Port will prove to be a robust strategy. After reviewing studies and interviews from various departments, this study suggested strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) facing the Incheon Port, based on a SWOT analysis; it also recommended competitive strategies for the port. Additionally, the study used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to identify important factors such as the infrastructural, operational, cost, and technology factors. This study identified the infrastructural factor to be highly critical to the activation of the Incheon Port's cold chain system. Based on the results, the study proposed policies and strategy directions.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.529-538
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• 2018

The port industry is an important national industry which significantly affects Korea's imports and exports which are centered on economic structure. For instance, the Port of Busan, which handles 75% of domestic container freight volume, is expected to become increasingly critical for container liner routes. For this reason, there have been continued efforts to expand freight service to attract international freight volume. This study analyzes the structural characteristics of the port network connected to the Port of Busan by analyzing the pattern of the container liner route from 2012 to 2016 by using social network analysis. According to the Port of Busan's liner route network, the port with the highest degree of centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality was found to be the Port of Singapore. The comparison of Busan's annual container handling rank by countries and the port center network analysis of Port of Busan rank was found to be different. As a result, it was established that China's East Port, which occupies a high percentage of the volume of cargo handled by Port of Busan, is not a hub port of Busan when viewed on the Busan's container terminal liner network. In addition, even if the number of Port of Busan container liner service increases, it is estimated that the vessels to be added to the fleet will be limited to small to medium sized, or that Busan port has characteristic of a feeder port for the Port of Singapore, according to the network.