• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected value problem

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Economic Value Analysis of Asian Dust Forecasts Using Decision Tree-Focused on Medicine Inventory Management (의사결정트리를 활용한 황사예보의 경제적 가치 분석-의약품 재고관리문제를 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Seung-Chul;Lee, Ki-Kwang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.120-126
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    • 2014
  • This paper deals with the economic value analysis of meteorological forecasts for a hypothetical inventory decision-making situation in the pharmaceutical industry. The value of Asian dust (AD) forecasts is assessed in terms of the expected value of profits by using a decision tree, which is transformed from the specific payoff structure. The forecast user is assumed to determine the inventory level by considering base profit, inventory cost, and lost sales cost. We estimate the information value of AD forecasts by comparing the two cases of decision-making with or without the AD forecast. The proposed method is verified for the real data of AD forecasts and events in Seoul during the period 2004~2008. The results indicate that AD forecasts can provide the forecast users with benefits, which have various ranges of values according to the relative rate of inventory and lost sales cost.

A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model to Derive Monthly Operating Policy of a Multi-Reservoir System (댐 군 월별 운영 정책의 도출을 위한 추계적 동적 계획 모형)

  • Lim, Dong-Gyu;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2012
  • The goal of the multi-reservoir operation planning is to provide an optimal release plan that maximize the reservoir storage and hydropower generation while minimizing the spillages. However, the reservoir operation is difficult due to the uncertainty associated with inflows. In order to consider the uncertain inflows in the reservoir operating problem, we present a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model based on the markov decision process (MDP). The objective of the model is to maximize the expected value of the system performance that is the weighted sum of all expected objective values. With the SDP model, multi-reservoir operating rule can be derived, and it also generates the steady state probabilities of reservoir storage and inflow as output. We applied the model to the Geum-river basin in Korea and could generate a multi-reservoir monthly operating plan that can consider the uncertainty of inflow.

A Study on Optimal Software Maintenance Policies with Warranty Period (보증기기간을 고려한 최적 소프트웨어의 보전정책 연구)

  • Nam, Kyung-H.;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.170-178
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    • 2011
  • In general, a software fault detection phenonenon is described by a software reliability model based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process(NHPP). In this paper, we propose a software reliability growth model considering the differences of the software environments in both the testing phase and the operational phase. Also, we consider the problem of determining the optimal release time and the optimal warranty period that minimize the total expected software cost which takes account of periodic software maintenance(e.g. patch, update, etc). Finally, we analyze the sensitivity of the optimal release time and warranty period based on the fault data observed in the actual testing process.

Correlation between Brain Cognition and Cyberdisease in VR Media (VR매체에서의 뇌인지와 사이버 멀미의 상관관계)

  • Kim, Min-Seo;Kim, Kyun-Ho;Kim, Yu-Ri;Kim, Eun-Seo;HUH, Won-Whoi
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.603-611
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    • 2022
  • As the era of metaverse approaches, there are challenges that need to be solved. Among them, 'cyber motion sickness' is a representative problem from 2016;when VR technology began to attract attention. According to the theory of sensory conflict, motion sickness is caused when the perceived direction of motion information and the expected value are not the same. The paper was written to theoretically explore the relationship between brain cognition and cyber motion sickness, and to prove the effect of user immersion on motion sickness symptoms based on this. Through the SSQ experiment, it was found that the rotation value of the camera aggravates the symptoms of cyber motion sickness and can alleviate cyber motion sickness by increasing the immersion of the game by giving the viewer visual and shift missions to solve. This study was conducted to solve the problem of cyber motion sickness during the process of developing the VR rhythm game "beatale", and it is expected to be the basis for improving cyber motion sickness not only in the development of the project but also in the production of VR contents in the future.

Robust investment model for long range capacity expansion of chemical processing networks using two-stage algorithm

  • Bok, Jinkwang;Lee, Heeman;Park, Sunwon
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.1758-1761
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    • 1997
  • The problem of long range capacity expansion planing for chemical processing network under uncertain demand forecast secnarios is addressed. This optimization problem involves capactiy expansion timing and sizing of each chemical processing unit to maximize the expected net present value considering the deviation of net present values and the excess capacity over a given time horizon. A multiperiod mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model that is both solution and modle robust for any realization of demand scenarios is developed using the two-stage stochastic programming algorithm. Two example problems are considered to illustrate the effectiveness of the model.

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Electrical and Hydrological Properties of Alluvium (충적층(沖積層)의 투수성(透水性)과 지하수(地下水)의 전기탐사(電氣探査)에 대(對)하여)

  • Jin, Doo Jung
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.70-73
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    • 1968
  • In Korea, ground water exploration by the electric method as a major prospecting tool has been carried out mainly in alluvial deposits, So it is considered to be important to understand the principle concerning the electrical and hydrological properties of alluvium. Factors which affect on the electrical and hydrological properties of alluvium were investigated. Major elements in ground water exploration are porosity and dermeability for most alluvial deposits with exceptions in some particular areas. Much water yield can be expected where alluvial materials have large porosity and small particle size while large particle size in necessary for good permeability. Problem is to locate the points which have comparatively large porosity and good permeability at a time. It is known that electrical resistivity method is proved useful to solve the above problem. The conclusion is: Localities which have greater alluvium thickness(7 to 10m) and 200 to 500 ohm -m of real resistivity value are suitable for well site in alluvial deposits in Korea where alluvium thickness is comparatively small(less than 10m in generaa) and bedrock formations are mainly composed of granite gneiss and granite.

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Output Feedback Control and Its Application to a Flexible Spacecraft

  • Sung, Yoon-Gyeoung;Joo, Hae-Ho
    • International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 2000
  • An output feedback control (OFC) is presented for a linear stochastic system with known disturbance and applied to a flexible spacecraft for the reduction of residual vibration while allowing the natural deflection during operation. By converting the tracking problem into regulator problem, the OFC minimizes the expected value of a guadratic objective function composing of error stats which always remain on the intersection of sliding hypersurfaces. For the numerical evaluation with a flexible spacecraft, a large slewing maneuver strategy is devised with a tracking model for nominal trajectory and start-cost-stop strategy for economical maneuver in conjunction with the input shaping technique. The performance and efficacy of the proposed control scheme are illustrated with the comparison of different maneuver strategies.

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Exact Solution on the Anti-symmetric Responses of Ships having Uniform Sectional Properties with Hydro-elasticity (균일단면 선박의 유탄성 수평응답에 대한 해석해)

  • ;;A. Korobkin
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2004
  • Exact solution on the anti-symmetric response of ships having uniform sectional properties in waves is derived. Boundary value problem consisted of Timoshenko beam equation and free-free end condition is solved analytically. The responses are assumed as linear and wave loads are calculated by using strip method. Horizontal bending moment, shear force and torsional moment are calculated. The developed analysis model is used for the benchmark test of the numerical codes in this problem. Also the application on the preliminary design of barge-like ships and VLFS (Very Large Floating Structure) is expected

A Study on a Performance Evaluation of Transporters in Refrigerate Warehouse Based on Simulation Method (시뮬레이션 방법을 이용한 냉장물류센터 운반설비의 적정 계획)

  • Hwang, Heung-Suk;Cho, Gyu-Sung
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.16 no.spc
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 2003
  • This paper deals with a performance evaluation model of transporters in refrigerate warehouse. This study focussed on determining refrigerate warehouse design to minimize the expected travel time to improve the transporter performance and to minimize the operating costs. This study proposes the important detail aspects of refrigerate warehouse design, operational parameters and congestions. For solving this problem, we have shown a mathematical model to compute the initial value of the system performance and also a simulation model using AutoMod. A systematic approach proposed in this study for an optimal planning of order-picking warehouse is known as an effective method for the planning of order-picking warehouse and a performance evaluation problem of refrigerate warehouse operation.

A SURVEY ON AMERICAN OPTIONS: OLD APPROACHES AND NEW TRENDS

  • Ahn, Se-Ryoong;Bae, Hyeong-Ohk;Koo, Hyeng-Keun;Lee, Ki-Jung
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.791-812
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    • 2011
  • This is a survey on American options. An American option allows its owner the privilege of early exercise, whereas a European option can be exercised only at expiration. Because of this early exercise privilege American option pricing involves an optimal stopping problem; the price of an American option is given as a free boundary value problem associated with a Black-Scholes type partial differential equation. Up until now there is no simple closed-form solution to the problem, but there have been a variety of approaches which contribute to the understanding of the properties of the price and the early exercise boundary. These approaches typically provide numerical or approximate analytic methods to find the price and the boundary. Topics included in this survey are early approaches(trees, finite difference schemes, and quasi-analytic methods), an analytic method of lines and randomization, a homotopy method, analytic approximation of early exercise boundaries, Monte Carlo methods, and relatively recent topics such as model uncertainty, backward stochastic differential equations, and real options. We also provide open problems whose answers are expected to contribute to American option pricing.