• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.53-59
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• 2008

Cost estimates are very important to their decision-making in the early stages of a construction project. So Clients have wanted not only to know the results of conceptual cost estimates but also to assess their quality Conceptual cost estimates process is very complex process, so the results of cost estimates are influenced by various factors. So the purpose of this study is to reveal the key factors which influence the reliability of conceptual cost estimates in building construction projects. The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the relative important weights of elements influencing the conceptual cost estimates. And factor analysis is used to reveal the key factors from the elements that influence the conceptual cost estimates. The results showed that the key factors is an experience level, available data level, level of will for winning the bid, difficulty level of conceptual cost estimate, uncertainty level.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제14권8호
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• pp.1051-1056
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• 2001

Data for teat number for Landrace (L), Yorkshire (Y), crossbred of Landrace and Yorkshire (LY), and crossbred of Landrace, Yorkshire and Chinese indigenous Min Pig (LYM) were analyzed using Gibbs sampling. In Bayesian inference, flat priors and some informative priors were used to examine their influence on posterior estimates. The posterior mean estimates of heritabilities with flat priors were $0.661{\pm}0.035$ for L, $0.540{\pm}0.072$ for Y, $0.789{\pm}0.074$ for LY, and $0.577{\pm}0.058$ for LYM, and they did not differ (p>0.05) from their corresponding estimates of REML. When inverse Gamma densities for variance components were used as priors with the shape parameter of 4, the posterior estimates were still corresponding (p>0.05) to REML estimates and mean estimates using Gibbs sampling with flat priors. However, when the inverse Gamma densities with the shape parameter of 10 were utilized, some posterior estimates differed (p<0.10) from REML estimates and/or from other Gibbs mean estimates. The use of moderate degree of belief was influential to the posterior estimates, especially for Y and for LY where data sizes were small. When the data size is small, REML estimates of variance components have unknown distributions. On the other hand, Bayesian approach gives exact posterior densities of variance components. However, when the data size is small and prior knowledge is lacked, researchers should be careful with even moderate priors.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.488-493
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• 2013

Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제18권7호
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• pp.909-914
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• 2005

This study was conducted to estimate phenotypic and genetic parameters of body condition score (BCS) and reproductive traits in Hanwoo cows. DFREML procedures were applied to obtain variance-covariance components and heritability estimates with single or two-trait models. Estimates of phenotypic correlations of BCS at service with BCS at calving was 0.16 and 0.26 with calving interval, 0.08 with gestation length, and 0.06 with number of services per conception, respectively. Estimates of phenotypic correlation of BCS at calving was 0.10 with calving interval, 0.13 with gestation length, and 0.10 with number of services per conception, respectively. Estimates of phenotypic correlation were low and negative, -0.11 between calving interval and gestation length and -0.13 between gestation length and number of services per conception. Estimates of direct genetic correlation were -0.06, between BCS at service and BCS at calving, 0.37 between BCS at service and BCS at weaning, and -0.18 between BCS at calving and BCS at weaning. Estimates of direct genetic correlation of days from calving to the 1st service were 0.17 with number of services per conception and -0.21 with BCS at service. Estimates of direct genetic correlation for BCS at calving were -0.02 with number of services per conception and -0.08 with BCS at service. Estimates of direct genetic correlation for BCS at weaning were 0.02 with number of services per conception and -0.07 with BCS at service. Estimates of direct heritability from single trait analyses were 0.13 for BCS at service, 0.20 for BCS at calving, 0.02 for BCS at weaning, and 0.20 for number of service per conception, respectively. Estimates of direct heritability were 0.20 for birth weight and 0.10 for weaning weight.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.755-762
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• 2015

One of the main objectives of the U.S. Census Bureau is the proper estimation of median household income for small areas. These estimates have an important role in the formulation of various governmental decisions and policies. Since direct survey estimates are available annually for each state or county, it is desirable to exploit the longitudinal trend in income observations in the estimation procedure. In this study, we consider Fay-Herriot type small area models which include time-specific random effect to accommodate any unspecified time varying income pattern. Analysis is carried out in a hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology. We have evaluated our estimates by comparing those with the corresponding census estimates of 1999 using some commonly used comparison measures. It turns out that among three types of time-specific random effects the small area model with a time series random walk component provides estimates which are superior to both direct estimates and the Census Bureau estimates.

• 대한수학회지
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• 제55권6호
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• pp.1285-1303
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• 2018

This note is motivated by gradient estimates of Li-Yau, Hamilton, and Souplet-Zhang for heat equations. In this paper, our aim is to investigate Yamabe equations and a non linear heat equation arising from gradient Ricci soliton. We will apply Bochner technique and maximal principle to derive gradient estimates of the general non-linear heat equation on Riemannian manifolds. As their consequence, we give several applications to study heat equation and Yamabe equation such as Harnack type inequalities, gradient estimates, Liouville type results.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.359-368
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• 1996

The maximum likelihood estimation is discussed for the NLAR model with Laplacian marginals. Since the explicit form of the estimates cannot be obtained due to the complicated nature of the likelihood function we utilize the automatic computer optimization subroutine using a direct search complex algorithm. The conditional least square estimates are used as initial estimates in maximum likelihood procedures. The results of a simulation study for the maximum likelihood estimates of the NLAR(1) and the NLAR(2) models are presented.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.631-639
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• 2003

Bayes estimates of reliability for the stress-strength system are obtained with respect to LINEX loss function. A reference prior distribution of the reliability is derived and Bayes estimates of the reliability are also obtained. These Bayes estimates are compared with corresponding estimates under squared-error loss function.

• 인간식물환경학회지
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.467-480
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• 2019

Standard estimates are the numerical data of a unit quantity required for construction work such as the amount of materials, manpower, and the use of equipment required and are also a basis to calculate construction costs. Unfortunately, standard estimates for construction have also been used for garden construction these days as no standard estimates for garden construction have been developed or documented until now. As a result, many problems have arisen at garden construction sites since landscape construction and garden construction differ in terms of scope, size, design and construction methods. The purpose of this study was to develop standard estimates for garden construction for proper calculation of the cost of garden construction and to ensure gardens are created following appropriate construction processes. In order to develop standard estimates for garden construction, a preliminary survey was conducted on experts to understand current issues at first. After that, a questionnaire survey was done to examine problems of construction processes and ways of improvement, and on-site inspections were conducted utilizing CCTVs at construction sites to identify the actual amount of manpower required on site. Based on the results of the surveys and on-site inspections, a draft version of standard estimates for 5 types of planting work for garden construction was developed. Developing standard estimates for garden construction will serve as a stepping stone for the transparent and proper compensation for garden construction work, which will not only contribute to addressing issues between consumers and construction companies, but also to the stabilization of market economy and job creation.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.235-243
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• 2014

Constrained Bayesian estimates overcome the over shrinkness toward the mean which usual Bayes and empirical Bayes estimates produce by matching first and second empirical moments; subsequently, a constrained Bayes estimate is recommended to use in case the research objective is to produce a histogram of the estimates considering the location and dispersion. The well-known squared error loss function exclusively emphasizes the precision of estimation and may lead to biased estimators. Thus, the balanced loss function is suggested to reflect both goodness of fit and precision of estimation. In insurance pricing, the accurate location estimates of risk and also dispersion estimates of each risk group should be considered under proper loss function. In this paper, by applying these two ideas, the benefit of the constrained Bayes estimates and balanced loss function will be discussed; in addition, application effectiveness will be proved through an analysis of real insurance accident data.