• Title/Summary/Keyword: Empirical process

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An Analysis of Investment Determinants of Korean Accelerators: From the Perspective of Business Model Innovation (국내 액셀러레이터 투자결정요인 중요도 분석: 비즈니스 모델 혁신 관점에서)

  • Jung, Mun-Su;Kim, Eun-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2022
  • Although start-up is a key national strategy to increase national competitiveness and create employment, the survival rate of start-ups has not improved significantly. This is an important reason for the inability to provide timely and appropriate support to startups, which are in the early stages of start-up, due to the unique limitations of existing start-up support institutions and investors. The relatively recent accelerator is attracting attention as a subject of solving the above problems through professional incubation and investment. However, there are only a few empirical studies on investment determinants that affect the survival and success of accelerators, and there is a lack of theoretical evidence. Accordingly, in previous studies, 12 investment determinants were derived from a static, strategic, and dynamic perspective as accelerator investment determinants based on a business model innovation framework. This study subdivided the accelerator investment determinants derived through previous studies into 21 and analyzed the importance and priority of each factor using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis technique for domestic accelerator investment experts. As a result of the analysis, the top factors of importance of accelerator investment determinants were in the order of 'human resources', 'customer and market', 'intellectual resources', and 'entrepreneur's ability to realize opportunities'. It can be seen that the accelerator considers the core competencies of startups to implement solutions as the most important factor when making startup investment decisions. It was also confirmed that accelerators are strategic to create a clear value proposition and differentiated market position based on the core competitiveness of startups, and that the core value delivery method prefers a market-oriented business model and recognizes entrepreneurs's innovation capability is an important factor to realize a business model with limited resources in a rapidly changing market. This study is of academic significance in that it analyzes the importance and priority of accelerator investment determinants through demonstration as a follow-up study on accelerator investment determinants derived based on business model innovation theory that reflects the nature, goals, and major activities of accelerator investment. In addition, it is of practical value as it contributes to revitalizing the domestic startup investment ecosystem by providing accelerators with theoretical grounds for investment decisions and specific information on detailed investment determinants.

The Structural Relationship between Entrepreneurial Competency, Entrepreneurial Opportunity Recognition on and Entrepreneurial Intentions of Middle-aged Eldery Office Workers (중·장년 직장인의 창업역량과 창업기회인식 및 창업의지의 구조적 관계)

  • Choi, In Woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.169-185
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the effect of entrepreneurial competency on entrepreneurial intentions by using the entrepreneurial opportunity recognition as a mediator for middle and middle-aged office workers. The sub-variables of entrepreneurial competency are classified into management competency, technology competency, business competency and funding competency. 222 copies of questionnaires collected from middle-aged and elderly office workers residing across the country centered on the metropolitan area were used for empirical analysis. Based on a simple mediating model with singular mediator using SPSS v22.0 and PROCESS macro v4.0. was analyzed. As a result of the analysis, first, among entrepreneurial competencies, business competency and funding capacity were found to have a positive (+) significant effect on the entrepreneurial intentions, but management and technical competency did not have a significant effect. The higher the business competency and funding competency. Second, it was found that all of the sub-variables of entrepreneurial competency had a significant effect in the positive (+) direction on the recognition of entrepreneurial opportunities. It was confirmed that management competency has the greatest influence on the entrepreneurial opportunity recognition and technology competence has the smallest effect. Third, it was found that the entrepreneurial opportunity recognition had a significant effect on entrepreneurial intentions. The discovery of an opportunity recognizing opportunities for start-up is a prerequisite for entrepreneur. Fourth, it was found that the entrepreneurial opportunity recognition mediates between the management competency, technological competency, business competency, funding competency, and entrepreneurial intention. It suggests that opportunity discovery by recognizing opportunities for entrepreneurship is a prerequisite for start-up. As implications of this study, it suggests that in order to inspire middle-aged and elderly office workers to start their own business, it is necessary to have indirect experience with education and to establish and promote a government support system for financing.. Second, It suggests that education on leadership and organizational management is particularly necessary to strengthen the opportunity recognition. Third, it suggests that the discovery of opportunities to recognize opportunities for start-up is a prerequisite for entrepreneur. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare a manual and conduct training on opportunity search, recognition, evaluation, and utilization according to the stage of opportunity development. Fourth, it suggests that in order to strengthen the intention to start a business, ALso, it is necessary to manage both the entrepreneurial competency and entrepreneurial opportunities recognition at the same time. By presenting the practical directions that can be given differentially, we intend to contribute to the provision of practical directions and policy establishment for the promotion of entrepreneurial activities of office workers who can give vitality to the ecosystem.

The Effect of Entrepreneurial Knowledge Acquisition on Entrepreneurial Intention via Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy: The Moderated Mediation Effect of Family Entrepreneurship Background (창업지식습득이 창업자기효능감을 매개로 창업의도에 미치는 영향: 창업자 가족배경의 조절된 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Juyon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.219-232
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    • 2022
  • Empirical studies on entrepreneurial intentions have been conducted from various perspectives over the past few decades. The unemployment rate has increased as the global economy stagnates in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and entrepreneurship is emerging as an alternative to job creation. Although numerous antecedent variables have positive effects on entrepreneurial intention, this study focuses on entrepreneurial self-efficacy as an individual factor and the entrepreneur's family background as an environmental factor. This study analyzed the survey results of 300 global respondents through the online survey platform Prolific. The respondents were screened by asking a question about having had entrepreneurial education. Since the effects of entrepreneurial self-efficacy on entrepreneurial intention have been proved in numerous domestic studies, this study aims to generalize these results by investigating global samples. The moderated mediation analysis was performed using PROCESS to verify the research hypotheses. This research investigated the effect of entrepreneurial knowledge acquisition on entrepreneurial intention via entrepreneurial self-efficacy and the moderated mediation effect of the family background of entrepreneurs. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, acquisition of entrepreneurial knowledge had a positive effect on entrepreneurial intention. Second, entrepreneurial self-efficacy mediated the relationship between entrepreneurship knowledge acquisition and entrepreneurial intention. Third, the entrepreneurship family background moderated this relationship. Specifically, when the family entrepreneurship background is strong (vs. weak), the positive effect of entrepreneurial knowledge acquisition on entrepreneurial intention via entrepreneurial self-efficacy significantly increased. The implications of this study are as follows. First, in the process of preparing for a own business, entrepreneurial education is a necessary condition to improve the entrepreneurial intention. Second, the higher the level of acquisition of entrepreneurial knowledge, the more positive attitudes toward entrepreneurial intention can be induced. Third, strong family background of entrepreneurship further promotes entrepreneurship intention by increasing entrepreneurial self-efficacy. In conclusion, in order to revitalize entrepreneurship, it is important to provide various entrepreneurial education programs. These educational programs will be able to improve entrepreneurial self-efficacy by providing more opportunities for students to acquire entrepreneurial knowledge, and thereby promote entrepreneurial intention. In addition, it is important to develop and provide advanced educational curriculum for those who have start-up business experiences in their families.

A Study on the Effect of Healing Experience Program on Satisfaction: Focused on Experience Cost and Experience Time (치유체험프로그램이 만족도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 체험비용과 체험시간을 중심으로)

  • An, Hye-Jung;Kan, Soon-Ah
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.183-200
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    • 2022
  • This study is a study on the effect of a healing experience program on satisfaction in the field of healing agriculture. In the development of a rural experience program, what factors constituting the healing experience program affect satisfaction, and how much time and participation cost affect the satisfaction of the healing experience program from the marketing point of view of the healing experience program. I want to analyze By researching the effect of experience cost and experience time on satisfaction of the healing experience program, I would like to suggest the development direction of the healing experience program. To this end, by empirically analyzing the effect of a healing experience program using experience cost and experience time as parameters on satisfaction, we present a theoretical basis for priority considerations when developing a rural experience program. There are entertainment experience, educational experience, deviant experience, and aesthetic experience as sub-factors of the experience program, experience time and experience cost as parameters, and satisfaction as a dependent variable. In addition, the reliability of the research results was secured by setting the demographic variables of the survey subjects as control variables. The empirical analysis was conducted on 314 valid questionnaires from the unspecified majority who were interested in or aware of the healing experience program. SPSS v22.0 was used, and to test the mediating effect, the three-step verification method of Baron & Kenny(1986) and the SPSS PROCESS Macro Model No. of Andrew F. Hayes(2018). 4 The reliability of the mediating effect was secured by applying the verification method and comparing the analysis resul. As a result of the study, it was found that educational experience (𝛽=.134, t=1.759*) had a positive (+) effect on experience cost, and aesthetic experience (𝛽=.144 t=1.684*) had a positive (+) effect on experience time. +) was found to have an effect. Also, educational experience (𝛽=.239, t=4.112***) was found to have a positive (+) effect on satisfaction, and aesthetic experience (𝛽=.330 t=4.921***) had a positive effect on satisfaction. It has been shown to have a (+) effect. Experience time was found to have a negative (-) inconsistent mediating effect between aesthetic experience and satisfaction. That is, it is the total effect (𝛽=.330 t=4.921***), and the direct effect (𝛽=.349 t=5.241***) increased by 𝛽=.019 compared to the total effect when the experience time was input, while the indirect effect (𝛽=-.019), which was shown to exert a negative (-) mediating effect.

A Study on the Effects of Young Entrepreneur Competency on Startup Performance: Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Network Activities (청년창업가의 역량이 창업성과에 미치는 영향 요인에 관한 연구: 네트워크활동의 매개효과 중심으로)

  • Hyun Chae Song;Chul-Moo Heo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.141-157
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzes the effect of enterepreneurial competencies on start-up performance through network activities for young entrepreneurs. Enterepreneurial competencies are composed of opportunity recognition competencies, marketing competencies, technical competencies, and creative competencies. A total of 354 questionnaires collected from young entrepreneurs residing in the country were used for empirical analysis. SPSS v28.0 and PROCESS macro v4.3 were analyzed based on the research model of a single-parameter single-mediated model. As a result of the analysis, first, it was found that among the enterepreneurial competencies, opportunity recognition competencies, marketing competencies, technical competencies, and creative competencies have a positive (+) significant effect on network activities. Among them, it was found that marketing competence has the greatest effect on network activities and technical competence has the least effect. Second, network activities were found to have a significant effect on start-up performance in a positive (+) direction. Third, among enterepreneurial competencies, opportunity recognition competence, marketing competence, technical competence, and creative competence were found to have a positive (+) effect on start-up performance. Among them, it was found that creative competence had the greatest effect and technical competence had the smallest effect. Fourth, network activities were found to mediate between enterepreneurial competencies and start-up performance. As for the relative effect size of the indirect effects of independent variables, it was found that marketing competence had the greatest effect on start-up performance and technology competence had the smallest effect. The academic implications of this study include investigating the significance and relationship of various variables, providing verification of theoretical frameworks related to entrepreneurship, identifying the main drivers of start-up success, and suggesting the importance of the network between enterepreneurial competencies and start-up performance. In addition, the practical implications of this study suggest the importance of marketing competencies for networking, and suggest differentiation of competencies. It emphasizes the strategic role of creative competence and provides guidance to policymakers for supporting start-ups on customized policies for fostering valuable start-ups.

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Analytical Psychology in Psychiatric Clinics (진료현장에서의 분석심리학 : 정신건강의학과 진료실에서 접하는 문제들의 분석심리학적 접근 경험)

  • Sang-Hag Park
    • Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.85-112
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    • 2020
  • How does analytical psychology help understand patients at general psychiatric clinics? It's necessary to think about how knowledge of analytical psychology can help young psychiatrists who are in training. Patients who come to us bring symptoms(problems). Symptoms can be compared to tickets to a movie theater. Symptoms accompanied by complaints of pain are not only pathological phenomena to be eliminated, but an important pathway to access the patients' inner problems. In terms of seeing the whole, the point of view in analytical psychology is to see the unconscious as well as the consciousness, even the elements the patients do not speak or know of. When determining indications and contra-indications during the initial process of treating a patient, it is more important to acknowledge the therapist's capabilities and limitations than the patient's condition or limitations The approach to complaints of the same symptoms may differ depending on whether the patient is in the first half or the second half of one's life. Analytical psychology is empirical psychology that experiences and it adheres to a phenomenological position that recognizes the phenomenon as true in itself, not logically right or wrong. The analytical psychological view of understanding mental phenomena asks the causal perspective of why the symptoms occurred. At the same time, the therapist, along with the patient, must seek answers to the question of why now and for what purpose. A therapist is a person who experiences the patient's personal development process together. In analytical psychotherapy, the therapist's attitude is more emphasized than the treatment method or technique; it is regarded as of the utmost importance. In this regard, analytical psychology is a practical and useful therapeutic tool, and is a field of study that can be widely used in actual psychiatric clinics. In addition to understanding the patient, it is also the most important discipline for the therapists, especially for the education and growth of those who want to become a treatment tool themselves.

The Determination of Trust in Franchisor-Franchisee Relationships in China (중국 프랜차이즈 시스템에서의 본부와 가맹점간 신뢰의 영향요인)

  • Shin, Geon-Cheol;Ma, Yaokun
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.65-88
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    • 2008
  • Since the implementation of economic reforms in 1978, the Chinese economy grows rapidly at an average annul growth rate of 9% over the post two decades. Franchising has been widely recognized as an important source of entrepreneurial activity. Trust is important in that it facilitates relational exchanges by permits partners to transcend short-run inequities or risks to concentrate on long-term profits or gains. In the relationship between the franchisors and franchisees, trust has been described as an important source of competitive advantage. However, little research has been done on the factors affecting trust in Chinese franchisor-franchisee relationships. The purpose of this study is to investigate what factors affect the trust in the franchise system in China, and to provide guidelines and insights to franchisors which enter Chinese market. In this study, according to Morgan and Hunt (1994), trust is defined as the extending when one party has confidence in an exchange partner's reliability and integrity. We offered a conceptual model of the empirical study. The model shows that the factors affecting the trust include franchisor's supports, communication, satisfaction with previous outcome and conflict. We also suggested the franchisor's supports and communication like to enhance the franchisee's satisfaction with previous outcome, and the franchisor's supports, communication and he franchisee's satisfaction with previous outcome tend to decrease conflict. Before the formal study, a pretest involving exploratory interviews with owners from three franchisees was conducted to make sure the questionnaire was relevant and clear to the respondents. The data were collected using trained interviewers to carry out personal interviews with the aid of an unidentified, muti-page, structured questionnaire. The respondents comprised of owners, managers, and owner managers of franchisee-owned food service franchises located in Beijing, China. Even though a total of 256 potential franchises were initially contacted, the finally usable sample consisted of 125 respondents. As expected, the sampling method was successful in soliciting respondents with waried personal and firm characteristics. Self-administrated questionnaires were used for all measures. And established scales were used to measure the latent constructs in this study. The measures tapped the franchisees' perceptions of the relationship with the referent franchisor. Five-point Likert-type scales ranging from "strongly disagree" (=1) to "strongly agree" (=7) were used throughout the constructs (trust, eight items; support, five items; communication, four items; satisfaction, six items; conflict, three items). The reliability measurements traditionally employed, such as the Cronbach's alpha, were used. All the reliabilities were greater than.80. The proposed measurement model was estimated using SPSS 12.0 and AMOS 5.0 analysis package. We conducted A series of exploratory factor analyses and confirmatory factor analyses to assess the convergent validity, discriminant validity, and reliability. The results indicate reasonable overall fits between the model and the observed data. The overall fit of measurement model were $X^2$= 159.699, p=0.004, d.f. = 116, GFI =.879, NFI =.898, CFI =.969, IFI =.970, TLI =.959, RMR =.058. The results demonstrated that the data reasonably fitted the model. We also examined construct reliability and reliability and average variance extracted (AVE). The construct reliability of each construct was greater than.80 and the AVE of each construct was greater than.50. According to the analysis of Structure Equation Modeling (SEM), the results of path model indicated an adequate fit of the model: $X^2$= 142.126, p = 0.044, d.f. = 115, GFI =.892, NFI =.909, CFI =.981, IFI =.981, TLI =.974, RMR =.057. As hypothesized, the results showed that it is strategically important to establish trust in a franchise system, and the franchisor's supports, communication and satisfaction with previous outcome tend to reinforce franchisee's trust. The results also showed trust seems to decrease as the experience of conflict episodes increases. And we also noticed that franchisor's supports and communication tend to enhance the franchisee's satisfaction with previous outcome, and communication tend to decrease conflict. If the trust between the franchisor and franchisee can be established in a franchise system, franchising offers many benefits and reduces many costs. To manage a mutual trust of relationship with their franchisees, franchisor's should provide support effectively to their franchisees. Effective assistant services have direct effect on franchisees' satisfaction with previous outcome and trust in franchisor. Especially, franchise sales process, orientation, and training in the start-up period are key elements for success of the franchise system. Franchisor's support is an accumulated separate satisfaction evaluation with different kind of service provided by the franchisor. And providing support definitely can improve the trustworthy image of the franchisor. In the franchise system, conflicts of interests and exertions of different power sources are very common. The experience of conflict episodes seems to negatively relate to trust. Therefore, it is important to reduce the negative side of the relationship conflicts. Communication actually plays a broader role in reducing conflict and establish mutual trust in franchisor-franchisee relationship. And effective communication between franchisors and franchisees can improve franchisees' satisfaction toward the franchise system. As the diversification of Chinese markets, both franchisors and franchisees must keep the relevant, timely, and reliable communication. And it is very important to improve the quality of communication. Satisfaction with precious outcomes seems to positively relate to trust. Franchisors and franchisees that are highly satisfied with the previous outcomes that flow from their relationship will perceive their partner as advancing their goal achievement. Therefore, it is necessary for both franchisor and their franchisees to make the welfare of partner with effort. Little literature has focused on what factors affect the trust between franchisors and their franchisees in China. This study developed the hypotheses regarding the factors affecting trust in the transaction relationship. The results of data analysis supported the hypotheses strongly. There are certain limitations in this study. First, we may point out that some other factors missed in this study could be significantly important. Second, the context of this study, food service industry, limits its potential generalizability for all franchise systems. More studies in different categories of franchise system are needed to broaden its generalizability. Third, the model was tested empirically in a sample in Beijing, more empirical tests of the proposed model in other Chinese areas are needed. Finally, the analysis in this study was solely based on the perception of franchisees and the opinions of franchisors were not included.

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The Effect of Service Failure on the Desire for Betrayal and Retaliatory Behavior - Based on the Moderating Role of the Customer-Service Firm Relationship Quality (서비스 실패요인이 보복행위에 미치는 영향과 관계품질의 조절효과)

  • Kim, Mo Ran;Ahn, Kwang Ho
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.99-130
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    • 2012
  • Service failure and a poor service recovery may lead loyal customers to try to aggressively punish the service firm. We use perceived betrayal and desire for vengeance as the key constructs to understand customer retaliation. Perceived betrayal is defined as a customer's belief that a firm has intentionally violated what is normative in the context of their relationship. And the desire for vengeance is defined as the retaliatory feelings that consumers feel toward a firm, such as the desire to exert harm on the firm. The perceived betrayal and the desire for vengeance are key antecedents of retaliatory behaviors such as vindictive complaining, negative WOM and third-party complaining for publicity. The empirical results suggest that betrayal is a key motivational factor that lead customers to restore fairness by making use of all means, including retaliation. We also find that relationship quality has effect on a customer's response to a failure in service recovery. As the levels of relationship increases, a violation of the proper fairness has a stronger effect on the sense of betrayal experienced by customers. Considerable research has investigated consumer responses to dissatisfaction. But our study examine the response of outraged and highly frustrated consumers. We focus on emotional and behavioral processes that have not been covered by previous dissatisfaction researches and which are unique to outraged consumers caused by extremely dissatisfied purchase experience. It has recently been pointed out by various mass media that the customers not only have positive effects on the company performance but also put the company in crisis. It has often been reported that one customer's dissatisfaction, for example, never ends as it is, and it tends to grow for retaliating upon the company, depending on the level of seriousness of the dissatisfaction. This sometimes leads to a lawsuit against the company. Our study focuses on the customers' emotional and behavioral responses induced by their extreme dissatisfactions. We divided the customer groups into the customers with high relationship quality and the customers with low relationship quality, and the difference between two groups is examined. The objective of this study is to comprehend the causal relationship between the feeling of betrayal caused by the service failure and the retaliatory behavior triggered by the desire of revenge. Our study is divided into three parts. First, a causal relationship between perceived unfairness and the perceived betrayal and desire for revenge. Second, the effect of the perceived betrayal and desire for revenge on the retaliatory behavior is investigated. Finally, the moderating role of relationship quality in the causal relationship between the unfairness in service recovery and the perceived betrayal is analyzed. This study finds the following empirical results. The distributive unfairness, procedural unfairness and interactional unfairness had significant effects on the perceived betrayal. Especially, the perceived distributive unfairness results in the highest perceived betrayal. When the service company does not provide customers proper and sufficient compensation for the failure, they feel the strong sense of betrayal. And in the causal relationship between the perceived betrayal, desire for revenge and retaliatory behavior, the perceived betrayal has significant effects on e desire for revenge. In addition desire for revenge has significant effects on negative word of mouth, retaliatory complaining behavior and publicity of complaints through third group. Therefore the perceived unfairness has effects on retaliatory behavior through the mediation of the perceived betrayal and desire for revenge. Finally the moderating role of relationship quality was examined in the relationship between the unfairness and perceived betrayal. If the customers experienced the perceived unfairness in the process of service recovery, the customers with high relationship quality feel the stronger perceived betrayal than the customers with low relationship quality do. When they experience the double service failure, the customer group with high relationship quality accumulating the sense of trust feel the more perceived betrayal than the customer with low relationship quality who do not have strong trust. The contribution of this study is to find the effect of the service failure on the retaliatory behavior with the moderating roles of relationship quality. The dimensions of unfairness in service recovery is found to have differential effects on the perceived betrayal, desire for revenge. And these differential effect is moderated by the level of relationship quality.

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Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

An Empirical Study in Relationship between Franchisor's Leadership Behavior Style and Commitment by Focusing Moderating Effect of Franchisee's Self-efficacy (가맹본부의 리더십 행동유형과 가맹사업자의 관계결속에 관한 실증적 연구 - 가맹사업자의 자기효능감의 조절효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Yang, Hoe-Chang;Lee, Young-Chul
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.49-71
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    • 2010
  • Franchise businesses in South Korea have contributed to economic growth and job creation, and its growth potential remains very high. However, despite such virtues, domestic franchise businesses face many problems such as the instability of franchisor's business structure and weak financial conditions. To solve these problems, the government enacted legislation and strengthened franchise related laws. However, the strengthening of laws regulating franchisors had many side effects that interrupted the development of the franchise business. For example, legal regulations regarding franchisors have had the effect of suppressing the franchisor's leadership activities (e.g. activities such as the ability to advocate the franchisor's policies and strategies to the franchisees, in order to facilitate change and innovation). One of the main goals of the franchise business is to build cooperation between the franchisor and the franchisee for their combined success. However, franchisees can refuse to follow the franchisor's strategies because of the current state of franchise-related law and government policy. The purpose of this study to explore the effects of franchisor's leadership style on franchisee's commitment in a franchise system. We classified leadership styles according to the path-goal theory (House & Mitchell, 1974), and it was hypothesized and tested that the four leadership styles proposed by the path-goal theory (i.e. directive, supportive, participative and achievement-oriented leadership) have different effects on franchisee's commitment. Another purpose of this study to explore the how the level of franchisee's self-efficacy influences both the franchisor's leadership style and franchisee's commitment in a franchise system. Results of the present study are expected to provide important theoretical and practical implications as to the role of franchisor's leadership style, as restricted by government regulations and the franchisee's self-efficacy, which could be needed to improve the quality of the long-term relationship between the franchisor and franchisee. Quoted by Northouse(2007), one problem regarding the investigation of leadership is that there are almost as many different definitions of leadership as there are people who have tried to define it. But despite the multitude of ways in which leadership has been conceptualized, the following components can be identified as central to the phenomenon: (a) leadership is a process, (b) leadership involves influence, (c) leadership occurs in a group context, and (d) leadership involves goal attainment. Based on these components, in this study leadership is defined as a process whereby franchisor's influences a group of franchisee' to achieve a common goal. Focusing on this definition, the path-goal theory is about how leaders motivate subordinates to accomplish designated goals. Drawing heavily from research on what motivates employees, path-goal theory first appeared in the leadership literature in the early 1970s in the works of Evans (1970), House (1971), House and Dessler (1974), and House and Mitchell (1974). The stated goal of this leadership theory is to enhance employee performance and employee satisfaction by focusing on employee motivation. In brief, path-goal theory is designed to explain how leaders can help subordinates along the path to their goals by selecting specific behaviors that are best suited to subordinates' needs and to the situation in which subordinates are working (Northouse, 2007). House & Mitchell(1974) predicted that although many different leadership behaviors could have been selected to be a part of path-goal theory, this approach has so far examined directive, supportive, participative, and achievement-oriented leadership behaviors. And they suggested that leaders may exhibit any or all of these four styles with various subordinates and in different situations. However, due to restrictive government regulations, franchisors are not in a position to change their leadership style to suit their circumstances. In addition, quoted by Northouse(2007), ssubordinate characteristics determine how a leader's behavior is interpreted by subordinates in a given work context. Many researchers have focused on subordinates' needs for affiliation, preferences for structure, desires for control, and self-perceived level of task ability. In this study, we have focused on the self-perceived level of task ability, namely, the franchisee's self-efficacy. According to Bandura (1977), self-efficacy is chiefly defined as the personal attitude of one's ability to accomplish concrete tasks. Therefore, it is not an indicator of one's actual abilities, but an opinion of the extent of how one can use that ability. Thus, the judgment of maintain franchisee's commitment depends on the situation (e.g., government regulation and policy and leadership style of franchisor) and how it affects one's ability to mobilize resources to deal with the task, so even if people possess the same ability, there may be differences in self-efficacy. Figure 1 illustrates the model investigated in this study. In this model, it was hypothesized that leadership styles would affect the franchisee's commitment, and self-efficacy would moderate the relationship between leadership style and franchisee's commitment. Theoretically, quoted by Northouse(2007), the path-goal approach suggests that leaders need to choose a leadership style that best fits the needs of subordinates and the work they are doing. According to House & Mitchell (1974), the theory predicts that a directive style of leadership is best in situations in which subordinates are dogmatic and authoritarian, the task demands are ambiguous, and the organizational rule and procedures are unclear. In these situations, franchisor's directive leadership complements the work by providing guidance and psychological structure for franchisees. For work that is structured, unsatisfying, or frustrating, path-goal theory suggests that leaders should use a supportive style. Franchisor's Supportive leadership offers a sense of human touch for franchisees engaged in mundane, mechanized activity. Franchisor's participative leadership is considered best when a task is ambiguous because participation gives greater clarity to how certain paths lead to certain goals; it helps subordinates learn what actions leads to what outcome. Furthermore, House & Mitchell(1974) predicts that achievement-oriented leadership is most effective in settings in which subordinates are required to perform ambiguous tasks. Marsh and O'Neill (1984) tested the idea that organizational members' anger and decline in performance is caused by deficiencies in their level of effort and found that self-efficacy promotes accomplishment, decreases stress and negative consequences like depression and emotional instability. Based on the extant empirical findings and theoretical reasoning, we posit positive and strong relationships between the franchisor's leadership styles and the franchisee's commitment. Furthermore, the level of franchisee's self-efficacy was thought to maintain their commitment. The questionnaires sent to participants consisted of the following measures; leadership style was assessed using a 20 item 7-point likert scale developed by Indvik (1985), self-efficacy was assessed using a 24 item 6-point likert scale developed by Bandura (1977), and commitment was assessed using a 6 item 5-point likert scale developed by Morgan & Hunt (1994). Questionnaires were distributed to Korean optical franchisees in Seoul. It took about 20 days to complete the data collection. A total number of 140 questionnaires were returned and complete data were available from 137 respondents. Results of multiple regression analyses testing the relationships between the each of the four styles of leadership shown by the franchisor as independent variables and franchisee's commitment as the dependent variable showed that the relationship between supportive leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.13, p<.001),and the relationship between participative leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.07, p<.001)were significant. However, when participants divided into high and low self-efficacy groups, results of multiple regression analyses showed that only the relationship between achievement-oriented leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.14, p<.001) was significant in the high self-efficacy group. In the low self-efficacy group, the relationship between supportive leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.17, p<.001),and the relationship between participative leadership style and commitment ($\beta$=.10, p<.001) were significant. The study focused on the franchisee's self-efficacy in order to explore the possibility that regulation, originally intended to protect the franchisee, may not be the most effective method to maintain the relationships in a franchise business. The key results of the data analysis regarding the moderating role of self-efficacy between leadership behavior style as proposed by path-goal and commitment theory were as follows. First, this study proposed that franchisor should apply the appropriate type of leadership behavior to strengthen the franchisees commitment because the results demonstrated that supportive and participative leadership styles by the franchisors have a positive influence on the franchisee's level of commitment. Second, it is desirable for franchisor to validate the franchisee's efforts, since the franchisee's characteristics such as self-efficacy had a substantial, positive effect on the franchisee's commitment as well as being a meaningful moderator between leadership and commitment. Third, the results as a whole imply that the government should provide institutional support, namely to put the franchisor in a position to clearly identify the characteristics of their franchisees and provide reasonable means to administer the franchisees to achieve the company's goal.

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