• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.203-214
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• 2016

This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of stratospheric temperature and circulations in the Global Seasonal forecasting model version 5 (GloSea5) hindcast experiment over the period of 1996~2009. Both the tropical and extratropical circulations are considered by analyzing the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex (NHPV). Their prediction skills are quantitatively evaluated by computing the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) and Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS), and compared with those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Stratospheric temperature is generally better predicted than tropospheric temperature. Such improved prediction skill, however, rapidly disappears in a month, and a reliable prediction skill is observed only in the tropics, indicating a higher prediction skill in the tropics than in the extratropics. Consistent with this finding, QBO is well predicted more than 6 months in advance. Its prediction skill is significant in all seasons although a relatively low prediction skill appears in the spring when QBO phase transition often takes place. This seasonality is qualitatively similar to the spring barrier of ENSO prediction skill. In contrast, NHPV exhibits no prediction skill beyond one month as in AO prediction skill. In terms of MSSS, both QBO and NHPV are better predicted than their counterparts in the troposphere, i.e., ENSO and AO, indicating that the GloSea5 has a higher prediction skill in the stratosphere than in the troposphere.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.938-942
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• 2010

현재 기후변화가 심화되면서 기상변동성이 커지고 이에 따라 사막화 현상의 심화, 엘니뇨(El Nino), 라니냐(La Nina), 태풍, 집중호우 등의 이상기후 현상이 전 지구상에 걸쳐 광역적으로 나타나고 있는 실정이다. 이러한 기후변화는 앞서 말한 것과 같이 여러 기후인자들을 변화시켜 수자원의 양적변화 등 지속가능한 수자원 개발 관리에 큰 영향을 미치므로 이에 대한 연구가 국내외에서 활발히 진행되고 있다. 대표적으로 여러 가지 2CO2 시나리오에 대한 대기 순환 모형의 적용 결과를 이용하여, 이러한 기후변화가 수문순환에 영향을 미치는 기후인자인 기온, 강수량, 습도 및 풍속, 그리고 물의 수량 및 수질 등에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 이를 기반으로 기후변화와 관련된 환경 및 수자원의 정책 개발에 대한 연구들이 주로 수행되고 있다. 국내 역시 기후 변화와 관련된 연구들이 수행되고는 있으나, 기후변화와 연계된 유량과 수질 예측에 대한 연구가 절실히 요구되고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 IPCC의 배출 시나리오(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 이하 SRES) 중 인구증가율이 높고 경제발달과 기술변화가 느리고 환경에 무관심한 극한현상을 나타내는 A2 시나리오와 청정 및 자원 효율적인 기술 등 급격히 발전하고 조사대상 유역특성과 유사한 B1 시나리오를 선정하고, 이에 대한 유역의 기온과 강우량을 GCM을 적용하여 모의하였다. 또한 향후의 기후변화가 유출 수질(BOD, TN, TP)에 미치는 영향을 2020년, 2050년, 2080년에 대하여 평가하기 위하여 GIS 기반의 유역 모형인 SWAT을 대상모형으로 선정하였다. 신뢰성 평가를 위해 현재 상태에서의 모의를 검 보정 하여 실제 A2, B1 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 기온 및 강우량 변화 등에 대한 영향을 평가하여 보았다.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.12 no.1 s.28
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• pp.63-68
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• 2004

Since 20th century, the rapid growth in economy development and ill-advisable construction of infrastructure which causing injury of nature has generated an El Nino phenomenon problems. For this reason, establishment of heritage preservation plan is being required to prevent damages of important cultural assets from natural disaster. In this study, we obtained both 3D-dxf and VRML-wrl(which support 3D image) files from stone pagodas(stone cultural heritages) by using the digital photogrammetric program. Then database are formed by these two files with other attribute informations. And we made existing cultural heritages management information data format to be unified using JAVA, HTML, and Cosmo Player. Thus, we could construct the web-server for Cultural Heritages Management Information System to contribute not only effective management but also ease of use for expert or amateur user in using of cultural assets informations. And, in virtual reality system, we could make texture presented like as actual texture by using the VRML program.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.268-268
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• 2023

전 지구적 급격한 기후변화로 인해 수문기상인자들의 비선형적 변동성이 발생함과 동시에 가뭄, 홍수와 같은 수재해의 발생빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 이에 따라, 세계의 유수기관 (NASA, ESA 등)에서는 대기모형과 해양 모형의 결합 및 수치해석적 접근법을 활용하여 계절내-계절 (Subseasonal to seasonal; S2S) 예측치를 생산하여 제공하고 있다. 이에 따라, 본 연구에서는 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)에서 산정되는 수문기상인자 (강수량, 증발산량 및 유출량)에 대한 정확도를 평가하고자 한다. 연구지역으로는 다양한 기후대 및 토지 피복으로 구성되어 있으며, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD)와 같은 기후 현상이 빈번히 발생하는 호주지역을 대상으로 연구를 수행하였다. ECMWF S2S 자료에 대한 통계적 검증은 1) 지점 기반 관측치와 더불어 2) 물수지 모델 기반 수문 추정치 (The Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape Model; AWRA-L)와 비교하였다. 연구 결과 S2S 강우 및 증발산량 산정치의 경우 비교적 짧은 예측기간(약 2주)에서 상대적으로 높은 상관관계 (R=0.5~0.6)와 낮은 편차 (강수량 = 0.10 mm/day, 증발산량 = 0.21 mm/day)를 나타내었다. 유출량의 경우, 강우 및 증발산량에 비해 상대적으로 낮은 정확도를 나타내었으며, 예측 기간이 길어짐에 따라 불확실성이 상당히 높아지는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는, S2S 계산과정에서 강우 및 증발산량 뿐만아니라 지표 유출로 도달하기 전까지의 수문기상인자들의 불확실성이 모두 모여 유출량의 불확실성이 높아진 것으로 확인할 수 있었다. 계절적 검증에서는, 강우 및 증발산량 모두 여름철에 높은 상관관계를 나타내었지만 불확실성은 상대적으로 큰 값을 나타내었다. 자세한 분석을 위해, 공간적인 불확실성을 분석해본 결과 ECMWF S2S가 매우 습윤하거나 건조한 지역에서 수문기상인자를 예측하는데 있어 한계성이 나타난 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 토대로, 추후 S2S 예측치에 대한 보정과 더불어 미래의 수재해 발생 위험도에 대한 정보를 획득하는데 적용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.51-61
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• 2010

Surface particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration was measured in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico on 9 cruises from November 1997 to August 2000 to investigate the seasonal and spatial variability related to synchronous remote sensing data (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), and sea surface wind (SSW)) and recorded river discharge data. Surface POC concentrations have higher values (>100 $mg/m^3$) on the inner shelf and near the Mississippi Delta, and decrease across the shelf and slope. The inter-annual variations of surface POC concentrations are relatively higher during 1997 and 1998 (El Nino) than during 1999 and 2000 (La Nina) in the study area. This phenomenon is directly related to the output of Mississippi River and other major rivers, which associated with global climate change such as ENSO events. Although highest river runoff into the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast occurs in early spring and lowest flow in late summer and fall, wide-range POC plumes are observed during the summer cruises and lower concentrations and narrow dispersion of POC during the spring and fall cruises. During the summer seasons, the river discharge remarkably decreases compared to the spring, but increasing temperature causes strong stratification of the water column and increasing buoyancy in near-surface waters. Low-density plumes containing higher POC concentrations extend out over the shelf and slope with spatial patterns and controlled by the Loop Current and eddies, which dominate offshore circulation. Although river discharge is normal or abnormal during the spring and fall seasons, increasing wind stress and decreasing temperature cause vertical mixing, with higher surface POC concentrations confined to the inner shelf.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.68-81
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• 2015

In this study, the correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TC) affecting areas around Korea over the last 37 years and the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI) was analyzed. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Ni$\tilde{n}$o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between these two variables, ENSO years were excluded, after which the 8 years with the highest WNPMI (positive WNPMI phase) and the 8 years with the lowest WNPMI (negative WNPMI phase) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In the positive WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the eastern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the East China Sea on their way north toward Korea and Japan. In the negative WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the western waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the South China Sea on their way west toward the southeastern Chinese coast and the Indochina peninsula. Therefore, TC intensity was higher in the positive WNPMI phase, during which TCs are able to gain sufficient energy from the sea while moving a long distance to areas nearby Korea. TCs also tended to occur more often in the positive WNPMI phase. In the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in areas near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. Also, due to the anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, more TCs could occur in the positive WNPMI phase.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.882-889
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• 2022

In this study, to understand the factors influencing the flow change the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC), the correlation between the volume transport the TWC, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was analyzed. A calculation of the monthly volume transport of TWC for 25 years (1993-2018) revealed that the seasonal fluctuation cycle was the largest in summer and smallest in winter. Power spectrum analysis to determine the periodicity of the TWC volume transport, Oceanic Niño Undex (ONI), and PDO indicated that the TWC volume transport peaked at a one year cycle, but ONI and PDO showed no clear cycle. Further, to understand the correlation between the TWC transport volume and ONI and PDO, the coherence estimation method was used for analysis. The coherence of ONI and PDO had a high mutual contribution in long-period fluctuations of three years or more but had low mutual contribution in short-period fluctuations within one year. However, the coherence value between the two factors of the TWC volume transport and PDO was 0.7 in the 0.8-1.2 year cycle, which had a high mutual contribution. Meanwhile, the TWC volume transport and PDO have an inverse correlation between period I (1993-2002) and period III (2010-2018). When the TWC maximum transport volume (2.2 Sv or more) was high, the PDO index showed a negative value below -1.0, and the PDO index showed a positive value when the TWC maximum transport volume was (below 2.2 Sv). Therefore, using long-term PDO index data, changes in the TWC transport volume and water temperature in the East Sea coastal area could be predicted.

• Journal of Science Education
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.353-364
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• 2009

The purpose of this study was to develop 'the problem situations' for the Problem Based Learning(PBL) and to examine it's effects on the science achievement and the attitude towards science learning. Also the students' perception on the PBL model was examined. The topics of the problem situations developed were 'the future energy for reducing the green house effect' and 'the Indonesian forest fire and the El Nino'. The coaching strategies for the PBL were designed and implemented to 10th grade high school students in the science classes, the results are follows; First, the science achievement of the group of PBL is significantly higher than those of group of traditional teaching. Second, the scores of the test of attitude toward science learning of the group of PBL is significantly higher than those of group of traditional teaching. Third, the students' perception of the PBL was positive. Many students have interests and motivations in PBL, some students have difficulties in learning on the PBL. In the students' personal reflection notes the step of a problem statement is the hardest one of the PBL model. Therefore, this study suggests that developing the problem situations based on real context is of great importance for implementing a problem based learning model continuously.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.55-68
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• 2011

The distribution and inter-annual variation of nutrients (N, P, Si) and dissolved/particulate organic carbon were investigated in the equatorial thermocline ridge ($7^{\circ}{\sim}11.5^{\circ}N$, $131.5^{\circ}W$) of the northeast Pacific. From the Oceanic Nino Index and Multivariate ENSO Index provided by NOAA, normal condition was observed in July 2003 and August 2005 on the aspect of global climate/ocean change. However, La Ni$\~{n}$a and El Ni$\~{n}$o episodes occurred in July 2007 and August 2009, respectively. Thermocline ridge in the study area was located at $9^{\circ}N$ in July 2003, $8^{\circ}N$ in August 2005, $10^{\circ}N$ in July 2007, and $10.5^{\circ}N$ in August 2009 under the influence of global climate/ocean change and surface current system (North Equatorial Counter Current and North Equatorial Current) of the northeast Pacific. Maximum depth integrated values (DIV) of nutrients in the upper layer (0~100 m depth range) were shown in July 2007 (mean 21.12 gN/$m^2$, 4.27 gP/$m^2$, 33.72 gSi/$m^2$) and higher variability of DIV in the equatorial thermocline ridge was observed at $10^{\circ}N$ during the study periods. Also, maximum concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the upper 50 m depth layer was observed in July 2007 (mean $107.48{\pm}14.58\;{\mu}M$), and particulate organic carbon (POC, mean $9.42{\pm}3.02\;{\mu}M$) was similar to that of DOC. Nutrient concentration in the surface layer increased with effect of upwelling phenomenon in the equatorial thermocline ridge and La Ni$\~{n}$a episode, which had formed in the central Pacific. This process also resulted in the increasing of organic carbon concentration (DOC and POC) in the surface layer. From these results, it is suggested that spatial and temporal variation of chemical and biological factors were generated by physical processes in the equatorial thermocline ridge.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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• v.17
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• pp.31-38
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• 1999

Trend of some hydrologic features such as precipitation, runoff and reservoir storage rates in the five great river systems of Han, Nakdong, Keum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river watershed areas were surveyed and analysed. The sample period of Sept. 1994 to Aug. 1998 (four years) was chracterized by unusual climatic features such as El Nino, La Nina and areal terrible storms. And also average values of rainfall and runoff of the priod of 1961 to 1990 (30 years) were surveyed and analysed compared with the sample preiod events for the same river systems. In case of the monthly mean rainfall of the sample period (Sept. 1994 to Aug. 1998 : 48 months) in the five great river systems, 20 months, 19 months, 20 months, 21 months and 18 months in the Han, Nakdong, Keum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river system respectively were higher than monthly average rainfall records of the 30 year records. For the monthly runoff in the same river systems, 7 months, 9 months, 7 months, 11 months and 11 month in the Han, Nakdong, Keum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems respectively were higher than the monthly average runoff of the period of 30 years. For the storage rates, most of the dams in the Han river systems were highly stored through the year continuously and Paldang dam was specially higher than the other dams in the same river system. And most of the dams in the other river systems were stored irregularly but getting much better than early time during the 48 months. And special climatic features were not found during the sample period of 48 months, Sept. 1994 to Aug. 1998.