• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 2001.12a
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• pp.27-30
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• 2001

A inventory management system of the manufacturing industry has a model of different kinds according to the objective and the situation. A inventory management system needs superior system technique in demand forecast, economical efficiency, reliability and application for stable supply of the finished goods, the raw materials and the parts. This paper proposes a demand forecast method based on fuzzy structured neural network, which uses min-operation and trapezoid membership function of fuzzy rules. So we can have an intelligent inventory management system for optimized decision-making of forecasting data with expert's opinion in fuzzy environment. This inventory management system used an intelligence agent and it could be adapted to asystemenvironmentchangeinorder.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.11b
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• pp.151-155
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• 2005

An electricity consumption is closely related to the economic growth structure. The change of economic growth structure affects the pattern of electricity consumption widely and severely. This paper gives that the primary changing factors of electricity growth are economic growth, change of industry structure(the change of electricity consumption ratio in case of residential sector), and the effect of electricity saying. It gives a model to analyze the influence of GDP to the change of electricity consumption patterns by sector through the period of pre and post 1998(IMF, financial crisis) to observe the contribution of each factor to the growth of electricity demand. It is anticipated that this study shows the feasible scheme of economic structure to become the developed country.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.11 no.7
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• pp.584-590
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• 2001

An inventory management system of manufacturing industry has a model of different kinds according to the objective and the situation. An inventory management system needs superior system technique in demand forecast, economical efficiency, reliability and application for stable supply of the finished goods, the raw materials and the parts. This paper proposes a demand forecast method based on fuzzy structured neural network, which uses min-operation and trapezoid membership function of fuzzy rules. So we can construct an intelligent inventory management system that make optimized decision-making for forecasting data with expert s opinion in fuzzy environment. The inventory management system uses intelligence agent and it could be adapted to a system environment change in order.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.84 no.2
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• pp.121-130
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• 1995

Forecasting accuracy is examined in the context of Michigan travel demand. Eight different annual models are used to forecast up to two years ahead, and nine different quarterly models up to four quarters. In the evaluation of annual models' performance, multiple regression performed better than the other methods in both the one year and two year forecasts. For quarterly models, Winters exponential smoothing and the Box-Jenkins method performed better than naive 1 s in the first quarter ahead, but these methods in the second, third, and fourth quarters ahead performed worse than naive 1 s. The sophisticated models did not outperform simpler models in producing quarterly forecasts. The best model, multiple regression, performed slightly better when fitted to quarterly rather than annual data: however, it is not possible to strongly recommend quarterly over annual models since the improvement in performance was slight in the case of multiple regression and inconsistent across the other models. As one would expect, accuracy declines as the forecasting time horizon is lengthened in the case of annual models, but the accuracy of quarterly models did not confirm this result.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.15-22
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• 2009

There exist some limits when we forecast urban railway demand by traditional 4 step model. The first reason is that the model based on socioeconomic data by an administrative unit, 'Dong', yields a 'Dong' unit trip matrix. But a 'Dong' often has two or more stations. The second reason is that urban railway demand by station would be affected rather by station access area on foot than by a 'Dong' unit. So the model based on 'Dong' characteristic data have some inaccuracies in itself. Owing to the limits of the model based on 'Dong' unit data, there exits some difficulty in forecasting urban railway demand by station. So this paper studied two alternatives. The first is to forecast the demand by using the data of station access area on foot rather than 'Dong' unit data. This needs too much time and effort to collect data and analyse them, while the accuracy of the model didn't improve a lot. The second is to adjust the location of 'Dong' centroid and the length of centroid connector link. By this way we can reflect the characteristics of station access area on foot under traditional 4 step model. Comparing the expected demand to the observed data for each station, the result looks like very similar.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.86-95
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• 2013

In this study, a model of compensation and amendment of forecasted travel demand was developed to calculate the range of values depends on the changes in the risk factors, selecting factors that might affect traffic demand changes among risk factors. Selected factors are as follows: influenced area population, the number of registrated vehicle per person, ratio of service industry workers, and city intervals. Then this model is applied to six routes of expressway and the calculated value were compensated with error rate being reflected on each quartile value with respect to influenced area population (200,000 people standards). Result from appling developed model to Cheongwon-Sangju expressway suggests that the model could compensate the error rate by more than 50%, which in turn validate the effectiveness of the model developed. Some limitations and future research agenda have also been identified.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.131-138
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• 2023

Globally, the eco-friendly industry is developing due to the climate crisis. Electric vehicles are an eco-friendly industry that is attracting attention as it is expected to reduce carbon emissions by 30~70% or more compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. As electric vehicles become more popular, charging stations have become an important factor for purchasing electric vehicles. Recent research is using artificial intelligence to identify local demand for charging stations and select locations that can maximize economic impact. In this study, in order to contribute to the improvement of the performance of the electric vehicle charging station demand prediction model, nationwide data that can be used in the artificial intelligence model was defined and a pre-processing technique was proposed. In addition, a preprocessor, artificial intelligence model, and service web were implemented for real charging station demand prediction, and the value of data as a location selection factor was verified.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.32-44
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• 1987

This study was carried out to analyze and furecast the domestic demand for plywood in Korea by regression models with time-series data for 16 years(1970-85). The results obtained were summarized as follows. 1. To analyze domestic demand for plywood, GNP, PWI and CWI were used as independant variables. The domestic demand equation was computed as follows: $^{in}DDP$=0.65186+1.29412 $^{in}GNP$-0.28385 $^{in}PWI$-1.05011 $^{in}CWI$ Where DDP : Domestic demand for plywood(1000 S/F) GNP: Gross national product (Billion won) PWI : Real wholesale price index of plywood CWI: Real wholesale price index of construction materials. 2. Among independant variables reflecting on the production activity of plywood industry, GNP was the most decisive in forecasting the domestic demand for plywood. 3. The significance can be recognized highly because the decision coefficient of the forecasting model which is obtained by using time series data is 0.9. 4. According to the estimated regression coefficients for GNP, PWI and CWI, GNP shows positive relation while PWI and CWI show negative relation. 5. An annual average increase rate of demand for plywood was 9.4 percent during expect period. Therefore, it was decreased slightly than that of 10.2 percent during sample period.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.101-115
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• 2008

This study reports UTIS(Urban Traffic Information System), which has been generalized in developed countries through brisk research and development and is being promoted for introduction by National Police Agency and Road Traffic Authority to reduce the astronomical amount of social expenses including traffic congestion expenses. Also this study investigates the proper charges for using by the preestimate of demand and contentment according to methods of payment after the service is introduced. The results of this study are as follows. First, demand forecast model is constructed by Binary Logit Model. Second, forecast models of using aspects of UTIS service according to methods of payment are established by Ordered Probit Model. Third, the proper charges for using of UTIS service according to methods of payment are presented to the supplier in the aspects of users. For this, preferences by using aspects and methods of payment are captured. And unit elasticity of coefficient of utilization is understood through responsiveness analysis according to methods of payment.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.10
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• pp.2923-2934
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• 2009

This paper presents study on technological forecasting of Next-Generation Display technology. Next-Generation Display technology is one of the emerging technologies lately. So databases on patent documents of this technology were analyzed first. And patent analysis was performed for finding out present technology trend. And the forecast for this technology was made by growth curves which were obtained from forecast models using patent documents. In previous study, Gompertz, Logistic, Bass were used for forecasting diffusion of demand in market. Gompertz, Logistic models which were often used for technological forecasting, too. So, two models were applied in this study. But Gompertz, Logistic models only consider internal effect of diffusion. And it is difficult to estimate maximum value of growth in two models. So, Bass model which considers both internal effect and external effect of diffusion was also applied. And maximum value of growth in Gompertz, Logistic models was estimated by Bass model.