• Title/Summary/Keyword: Credit Risks

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E-Commerce in the Historical Approach to Usage and Practice of International Trade ("무역상무(貿易商務)에의 역사적(歷史的) 어프로치와 무역취인(貿易取引)의 전자화(電子化)")

  • Tsubaki, Koji
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.19
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    • pp.224-242
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    • 2003
  • The author believes that the main task of study in international trade usage and practice is the management of transactional risks involved in international sale of goods. They are foreign exchange risks, transportation risks, credit risk, risk of miscommunication, etc. In most cases, these risks are more serious and enormous than those involved in domestic sales. Historically, the merchant adventurers organized the voyage abroad, secured trade finance, and went around the ocean with their own or consigned cargo until around the $mid-19^{th}$ century. They did business faceto-face at the trade fair or the open port where they maintained the local offices, so-called "Trading House"(商館). Thererfore, the transactional risks might have been one-sided either with the seller or the buyer. The bottomry seemed a typical arrangement for risk sharing among the interested parties to the adventure. In this way, such organizational arrangements coped with or bore the transactional risks. With the advent of ocean liner services and wireless communication across the national border in the $19^{th}$ century, the business of merchant adventurers developed toward the clear division of labor; sales by mercantile agents, and ocean transportation by the steam ship companies. The international banking helped the process to be accelerated. Then, bills of lading backed up by the statute made it possible to conduct documentary sales with a foreign partner in different country. Thus, FOB terms including ocean freight and CIF terms emerged gradually as standard trade terms in which transactional risks were allocated through negotiation between the seller and the buyer located in different countries. Both of them did not have to go abroad with their cargo. Instead, documentation in compliance with the terms of the contract(plus an L/C in some cases) must by 'strictly' fulfilled. In other words, the set of contractual documents must be tendered in advance of the arrival of the goods at port of discharge. Trust or reliance is placed on such contractual paper documents. However, the container transport services introduced as international intermodal transport since the late 1960s frequently caused the earlier arrival of the goods at the destination before the presentation of the set of paper documents, which may take 5 to 10% of the amount of transaction. In addition, the size of the container vessel required the speedy transport documentation before sailing from the port of loading. In these circumstances, computerized processing of transport related documents became essential for inexpensive transaction cost and uninterrupted distribution of the goods. Such computerization does not stop at the phase of transportation but extends to cover the whole process of international trade, transforming the documentary sales into less-paper trade and further into paperless trade, i.e., EDI or E-Commerce. Now we face the other side of the coin, which is data security and paperless transfer of legal rights and obligations. Unfortunately, these issues are not effectively covered by a set of contracts only. Obviously, EDI or E-Commerce is based on the common business process and harmonized system of various data codes as well as the standard message formats. This essential feature of E-Commerce needs effective coordination of different divisions of business and tight control over credit arrangements in addition to the standard contract of sales. In a few word, information does not alway invite "trust". Credit flows from people, or close organizational tie-ups. It is our common understanding that, without well-orchestrated organizational arrangements made by leading companies, E-Commerce does not work well for paperless trade. With such arrangements well in place, participating E-business members do not need to seriously care for credit risk. Finally, it is also clear that E-International Commerce must be linked up with a set of government EDIs such as NACCS, Port EDI, JETRAS, etc, in Japan. Therefore, there is still a long way before us to go for E-Commerce in practice, not on the top of information manager's desk.

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Detecting Credit Loan Fraud Based on Individual-Level Utility (개인별 유틸리티에 기반한 신용 대출 사기 탐지)

  • Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo;Suh, Yongmoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.79-95
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    • 2012
  • As credit loan products significantly increase in most financial institutions, the number of fraudulent transactions is also growing rapidly. Therefore, to manage the financial risks successfully, the financial institutions should reinforce the qualifications for a loan and augment the ability to detect a credit loan fraud proactively. In the process of building a classification model to detect credit loan frauds, utility from classification results (i.e., benefits from correct prediction and costs from incorrect prediction) is more important than the accuracy rate of classification. The objective of this paper is to propose a new approach to building a classification model for detecting credit loan fraud based on an individual-level utility. Experimental results show that the model comes up with higher utility than the fraud detection models which do not take into account the individual-level utility concept. Also, it is shown that the individual-level utility computed by the model is more accurate than the mean-level utility computed by other models, in both opportunity utility and cash flow perspectives. We provide diverse views on the experimental results from both perspectives.

A Study on Risk Analysis and Relevant Measures for the Successful Performance in Overseas Construction Projects - Including Case Analysis on A Overseas Construction Project - (해외건설 프로젝트의 성공적 수행을 위한 위험요소 및 대처방안에 대한 연구 - 해외건설 사례분석을 포함하여 -)

  • Kim, Sang-Man
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.50
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    • pp.215-250
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    • 2011
  • Korean won overseas construction projects worth 71.6 billion US Dollars in 2010, which exceeded that of 2009 by 45.6%. An overseas construction project is a transaction of large scale, long term project, many parties participating, deferred payment, and of high-technology. It contributes to foreign currency earning, and also leads the nation's export restructuring work towards high value-added one. There are various kinds of risks towards the relevant parties respectively, which are key elements in successfully performing the overseas construction project. There are completion risk, financing risk, operating risk, revenue risk etc, in an employer's place. A contractor may be confronted with payment risk, issuance risk of performance bond, financing risk, performance risk of sub-contractors, and exchange rate risk. In lenders place there are repayment risk, completion risk, and political risk in the host country. In order to mitigate risks, the parties shall take relevant measures or require relevant securities. A contractor needs to evaluate the credibility of an employer in respect of payment risk, and can also request export insurance cover by the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation(the former 'Korea Export Insurance Corporation"). An employer can require a contractor to provide performance bond in respect of completion risk, and employ a well-known first class bank as a mandated arranger to arrange financing with regard to completion risk. Lenders needs to evaluate the credibility of an employer and accomplish feasibility study of the project. Lenders can request insurance cover from export credit agency. Once the parties assess the respective risks and obtain relevant securities, the project will be successfully completed. The success of the project will be sure to bring the parties involved enormous profits and another opportunity to participate in overseas construction project afterwards.

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Copula Approach for the Measurement of Integrated Risk of National Pension Fund (Copula를 이용한 국민연금기금의 통합위험에 관한 연구)

  • Byun, Jin-Ho;Nam, Chae-Woo;Lee, Ho-Sun
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.24-39
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we study the methodology for the measurement and integration of market risk and credit risk using Copula. We apply the methodology of Rosenberg, and Schuermann(2006) to the assets of pension system. Firstly we estimate dynamics of risk factors and their effects on investment returns, then use the estimated result to simulate future movement of risk factors and distribution of investment returns. Finally we measure integrated risk using integrated return distribution by Copula and simulated future investment return distributions. We found the integrated risk changing with the correlation of risks and investment weights of risks and confirmed the diversification effect of risks. This result is consistent when we use normal Copula and normal marginals, t-Copula and t(3) marginals, and normal Copula and non-parametric marginals. And in the case of non-parametric maginals, larger integrated risk is calculated. It means that use of non-parametric marginals is more conservative.

Problems on Examining the Electronic Records in Letter of Credit Transactions (신용장거래에서 전자기록의 심사에 따른 문제점에 관한 고찰 - e-Nego 시스템과 전자선화증권을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Chang-Sook;Kang, Won-Jin
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.85-107
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    • 2010
  • A comprehensive electronic trade portal such as the electronic bills of lading, e-negotiations and so on, is developed by the Korea Ministry of Knowledge Economy and International Trade Association and serviced by KTNET. The portal, so called u-TradeHub, formally started to provide its services on 22nd May, 2009. If the shipper issues electronic bills of lading, the negotiating bank examines it through the established e-Nego system. However, the issuing bank overseas cannot examine the electronic bills of lading, because any interactive system does not exist. So, after the e-Nego, the electronic bills of lading gets automatically transformed into the paper-type electronic bills of lading and issuing bank examine paper B/L. In process of examining documents, the beneficiary using electronic means in letter of credit transactions may face some risks such as the corruption to the electronic bill of lading after its issuance by the carrier, the corruption after e-Nego and the corruption after the presentation to the issuing bank. In this paper, we studied the problems on corruptions to occur in the middle of the examination process of the electronic bills of lading and suggestions how to solve them are discussed.

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A Study on the Special Settlement and Electronic Settlement System in the International Trade (무역거래상의 특수결제방식과 전자결제방식에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Soon-Hwan
    • The Journal of Information Technology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.159-176
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    • 2005
  • The Purpose of this Article is to analyze the special settlement and electronic settlement system in the international trade. First, Factoring is a fast, easy and flexible way to improve a company's cash flow and generate working capital for the company. Factoring can be short-term or part of an ongoing financing program. New companies can benefit as well, since there is no requirement for a long-term credit history. Second, Forfaiting is a method of trade financing that allows exporters to obtain cash and be free of all risks by selling their medium term receivables on a 'without recourse' basis. Forfaiting can be an alternative to export credit or insurance cover, especially for those transactions in which the export credit agency is not open to a particular country and/or bank. Third, The Bolero System is jointly financed by SWIFT(Society for World International Financial Telecommunications) which handles most of the electronic funds transfer for banks, and the Through Transport Mutual Assurance Association(the TT Club), a mutual insurance association most of whose members are drawn from the Multimodal transport industry or transport intermediaries. Fourth, TradeCard is a payment and settlement system that is an alternative to letters of crdeit. That is, TradeCard is a business-to-business e-commerce infrastructure that enables buyers and sellers to conduct and settle international trade transactions securely over the Internet.

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The Role of Financial Risk Management in Predicting Financial Performance: A Case Study of Commercial Banks in Pakistan

  • AHMED, Zeeshan;SHAKOOR, Zain;KHAN, Mubashir Ali;ULLAH, Waseem
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.639-648
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    • 2021
  • The study aims to examine the role of financial risk management in predicting the financial performance of commercial banks in Pakistan over the period of 2006-2017. For this purpose, risk management is measured through credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk, while financial performance is measured through ROA, ROE, and ROI. For this purpose, the dynamic panel model and two step GMM panel estimators are used to test the hypothesis empirically. The annual secondary data has been taken from the published financial reports of commercial banks of Pakistan. The results show that financial risk management significantly decreases the financial performance of commercial banks in Pakistan. Overall, the results are conclusive across the alternative measures of financial risk management in predicting the financial performance of the banking sector in Pakistan. The study suggested that managers should adopt risk management and risk hedging strategies to manage commercial banks' financial risks in Pakistan. They should hold extra cash while using the trade credit facilities. Previous studies mostly used a static model, but this study used a dynamic panel model. This study is among the first that focused on the various factors affecting the banks' performance in Pakistan.

Bayesian Inference for Predicting the Default Rate Using the Power Prior

  • Kim, Seong-W.;Son, Young-Sook;Choi, Sang-A
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.685-699
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    • 2006
  • Commercial banks and other related areas have developed internal models to better quantify their financial risks. Since an appropriate credit risk model plays a very important role in the risk management at financial institutions, it needs more accurate model which forecasts the credit losses, and statistical inference on that model is required. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating a default rate. It is a Bayesian approach using the power prior which allows for incorporating of historical data to estimate the default rate. Inference on current data could be more reliable if there exist similar data based on previous studies. Ibrahim and Chen (2000) utilize these data to characterize the power prior. It allows for incorporating of historical data to estimate the parameters in the models. We demonstrate our methodologies with a real data set regarding SOHO data and also perform a simulation study.

THE PRICING OF VULNERABLE POWER OPTIONS WITH DOUBLE MELLIN TRANSFORMS

  • HA, MIJIN;LI, QI;KIM, DONGHYUN;YOON, JI-HUN
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.39 no.5_6
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    • pp.677-688
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    • 2021
  • In the modern financial market, the scale of financial instrument transactions in the over-the-counter (OTC) market are increasing. However, in this market, there exists a counterparty credit risk. Herein, we obtain a closed-form solution of power option with credit risks, using the double Mellin transforms. We also use a numerical method to compare the differentiations of option price between the closed-form solution and Monte-Carlo simulation. The result shows that the closed-form solution is precise. In addition, the option's price is sensitive to the exponent of the maturity stock price.

Co-movements between VIX and Emerging CDSs: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis

  • Kang, Sang Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2771-2779
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    • 2018
  • The recent financial crises cause the co-movement and transmit the risk across different markets and assets. It is well known that market fear affects the quality of credit in the financial markets. In this context, this study examines the co-movement between the volatility index (VIX) of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), or VIX, and six emerging countries' credit default swaps (CDSs), by implementing wavelet coherence. Our research aims at revealing whether the VIX can be used to hedge against the bubble behavior of the CDS market in different investment holding periods (short-run, medium-run, and long-run), as well as whether either market can be used to manage and hedge overall market downside risks. The wavelet coherence results show a high degree of co-movement between the VIX and CDS during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, across the 16-64 weeks' frequency band. In addition, we observe that the positive correlation between the VIX and the CDS markets, implying that the market turmoil intensifies the co-movement between the VIX and CDS markets.