• Title/Summary/Keyword: Contingent approach

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Estimation of the Economic Value of Pumped Storage Power Generation in Korea (양수발전의 비시장 가치 추정)

  • Won, DooHwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.263-275
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study estimated the non-market value of pumped storage power generation using the contingent valuation method(CVM). Design/methodology/approach - CVM, a non-market value estimation method, was used. The perception of pumped storage power generation and the willingness to pay(WTP) for pumped storage power generation were investigated among 612 randomly selected households. Findings - It was analyzed that the average value per household was 7309.99 won/month, and the sources of these benefits were 1819.37 won due to the improvement of power generation efficiency, 1320.48 won due to the improvement of power system reliability, 2359.24 won due to the stabilization of electricity rates, 2110.89 won due to water resource management It was assumed that a circle occurred. If the average monthly benefit per household is expanded to cover countries across the country, it is estimated that the annual value to our society from pumped storage power generation will be KRW 1.796.6 trillion. Research implications or Originality - It is necessary to consider the operation of pumped-water power generation by reflecting the value of pumped-up power generation that is not evaluated in the market. Since Korea's electricity market is isolated in a state where it is impossible to connect with other countries, it may be vulnerable to a stable electricity operation system. Therefore, there is a need for a facility that can stably secure reserve power and produce power quickly when necessary. If pumped-water power generation is actively used for power operation, a more stable power system can be secured.

Conditional Density based Statistical Prediction

  • J Rama Devi;K. Koteswara Rao;M Venkateswara Rao
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.127-139
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    • 2023
  • Numerous genuine issues, for example, financial exchange expectation, climate determining and so forth has inalienable arbitrariness related with them. Receiving a probabilistic system for forecast can oblige this dubious connection among past and future. Commonly the interest is in the contingent likelihood thickness of the arbitrary variable included. One methodology for expectation is with time arrangement and auto relapse models. In this work, liner expectation technique and approach for computation of forecast coefficient are given and likelihood of blunder for various assessors is determined. The current methods all need in some regard assessing a boundary of some accepted arrangement. In this way, an elective methodology is proposed. The elective methodology is to gauge the restrictive thickness of the irregular variable included. The methodology proposed in this theory includes assessing the (discretized) restrictive thickness utilizing a Markovian definition when two arbitrary factors are genuinely needy, knowing the estimation of one of them allows us to improve gauge of the estimation of the other one. The restrictive thickness is assessed as the proportion of the two dimensional joint thickness to the one-dimensional thickness of irregular variable at whatever point the later is positive. Markov models are utilized in the issues of settling on an arrangement of choices and issue that have an innate transience that comprises of an interaction that unfurls on schedule on schedule. In the nonstop time Markov chain models the time stretches between two successive changes may likewise be a ceaseless irregular variable. The Markovian methodology is especially basic and quick for practically all classes of classes of issues requiring the assessment of contingent densities.

A Study on Multi-objective Optimal Power Flow under Contingency using Differential Evolution

  • Mahdad, Belkacem;Srairi, Kamel
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2013
  • To guide the decision making of the expert engineer specialized in power system operation and control; the practical OPF solution should take in consideration the critical situation due to severe loading conditions and fault in power system. Differential Evolution (DE) is one of the best Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) to solve real valued optimization problems. This paper presents simple Differential Evolution (DE) Optimization algorithm to solving multi objective optimal power flow (OPF) in the power system with shunt FACTS devices considering voltage deviation, power losses, and power flow branch. The proposed approach is examined and tested on the standard IEEE-30Bus power system test with different objective functions at critical situations. In addition, the non smooth cost function due to the effect of valve point has been considered within the second practical network test (13 generating units). The simulation results are compared with those by the other recent techniques. From the different case studies, it is observed that the results demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach and show clearly its effectiveness to solve practical OPF under contingent operation states.

An Empirical Test for CVM Calibration Factor through Combining Revealed and Stated Preferences Data (현시선호와 진술선호 자료의 결합을 통한 조건부 가치측정법 소득조정계수의 추정)

  • Eom, Young Sook;Larson, Douglas M.
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.337-366
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    • 2004
  • Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), as non-market valuation approach, has been criticized on that respondents may not realistically reflect their budget constraints in answering willingness to pay (WTP) for hypothetical CV questions. This paper empirically estimates the income calibration factor associated with CV responses through combining travel cost method and contingent valuation method in a utility-theoretic framework. The joint model of recreation demand function and contingent WTP function was applied to an important case study on the Man Kyoung River system, whose water quality is at issue because of the Sae Alan Kum reclamation project. Relevant economic variables such as price, income and water quality had significant influence as anticipated by the economic theory. Equally important, the income calibration factor was not significantly different from one, suggesting that the systematic discrepancies of CV responses relative to the actual behavior was not detected at least in terms of budget exaggeration. Overall, this study supports the notion that carefully designed CVM studies can provide informative data on individuals' willingness to pay for environmental quality changes.

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The Qualifications for the Application of the Rainfall Spatial Distribution Analysis Technique (강우량 공간분포 분석기법의 적용조건에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang Sye-Woon;Park Seung-Woo;Cho Young-Kyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.943-947
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    • 2005
  • This study was intended to interpose an objection about the analysis of rainfall spatial distribution without a proper standard, and offer the improved approach using 1,he geostatistical analysis method to analyze it. For this, spatially distributed daily rainfall data sets were collected for 41 weather stations in study area, and variogram and correlation analysis were conducted. In the results of correlation analysis, it was found that the longer distance between the stations reduces the correlation of the rainfall data, and maltes the characteristics of the rainfall spatial distribution. The variogram analysis shows that correlation range was less than 50 km for the 17 daily rainfall data sets of total 91 sets. It says that it involves some rike, to determine the application method for rainfall spatial distribution without some qualifications, hence the Application standards of the Rainfall Spatial Distribution Analysis Technique, were essential and that was contingent on characteristics of rainfall and landscape.

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Measuring Landscape Value of Jeju Island's Mandarin(Orchard) for the Introduction of Direct Payment System of the Landscape Preservation (경관보전직불제 도입을 위한 제주감귤(원)의 경관가치 평가)

  • Ko, Seong-Bo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2008
  • The dichotomous-choice contingent valuation method is applied to estimate the landscape value of Jeju mandarin(orchard). A distribution-free approach, Turnbull empirical distribution model, is employed to solve negative willingness to pay and truncation problems. The data used are collected from the interviews with tourist about willingness-to-pay at the various donation amount levels of Jeju mandarin(orchard)'s landscape value. The evaluation result is shown that the average amount of willingness to pay for the Jeju mandarin's landscape value is 12,926 won per person with standard deviation of 1,874.7 won/person. When the number of Jeju visitors is considered, the economic value of Jeju mandarin's landscape rises every year(2005:64.89 billion won, 2011: 84.43 billion won). The average economic value of Jeju mandarin's landscape are estimated 59.65 billion won during 2000-2005 and 76.88 billion won during 2006-2011, respectively.

Measuring Landscape Value of Jeju Island's Stonewall Fencing Farming Land for the Introduction of Direct Payment System of the Landscape Preservation (경관보전직불제 도입을 위한 제주밭담의 경관가치 평가)

  • Ko, Seong-Bo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2007
  • The dichotomous-choice contingent valuation method is applied to estimate the landscape value of Jeju Island's stonewall fencing farming land. A distribution-free approach, Turnbull empirical distribution model, is employed to solve negative willingness to pay and truncation problems. The data used are collected from the interviews with tourist about willingness-to-pay at the various donation amount levels of Jeju stonewall's landscape value. The evaluation result is shown that the average amount of willingness to pay for the Jeju stonewall fencing farming land is 3,001 won per meter with standard deviation of 511.0 won/m.

DYNAMIC RISK MEASURES AND G-EXPECTATION

  • Kim, Ju Hong
    • The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.287-298
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    • 2013
  • A standard deviation has been a starting point for a mathematical definition of risk. As a remedy for drawbacks such as subadditivity property discouraging the diversification, coherent and convex risk measures are introduced in an axiomatic approach. Choquet expectation and g-expectations, which generalize mathematical expectations, are widely used in hedging and pricing contingent claims in incomplete markets. The each risk measure or expectation give rise to its own pricing rules. In this paper we investigate relationships among dynamic risk measures, Choquet expectation and dynamic g-expectations in the framework of the continuous-time asset pricing.

The Contingent Approach to Landscape Aesthetics (조경미학에서의 우연적 접근)

  • Zoon, Kyon-Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 1987
  • 본 연구는 경관선호에 관한 평가방법을 서술적으로 구명하면서 기존의 경관선호에 관한 평가방법이 자연적 요소를 많이 포함한 경관의 평가출 정착히 하는데 따르는 문제점을 제시하고 경관의 우연적 국면에 따라 경관선호의 우연성(Contingency in Landscape Preference)을 개관하면서 경관평가의 우연성(Contingency in Landscape Evaluation)에 의한 우연적 경관평가방법(Contingent Approach in Landscape Evaluation)의 가능성을 시사했다. 최근까지의 경관평가방법을 크게 분류하면 총체적(Universal) 접근방법, 개성적(Idiosyncratic) 접근방법, 조화적(Contrastic) 접근방법 등으로 나눌 수 있다. 그런데 경관성에서의 우연성을 강조함 으로써, 앞의 세방법만을 가지고서는 경관의 실체 파악이 어렵기 때문에 새로운 방법이 강구되어야 한다. 이의 한 대안으로 경관선호에 대한 평가를 우연적 접근방법으로 해결함으로써 평가영역과 평가요소를 확장시킬 수 있다. 따라서 수학적 매트릭스가 가능하다는 시사를 본 연구에서 구시하면서 새로운 평가방법으로 우연적 경관평가방법을 제시했다. 우연적 경관평가방법은 우연적 경관성에 의한 심미성을 고려하여 종합적으로 분석할 수 있으나 우연적 영역을 의도적으로 설정하지 않는 한 현실적으로 재정적 흑은 시간적 제약성을 지니고 있다. 그러나, 경관선호의 정도에 관한 평가보다는 경관의 본질을 구성하는 모든 요소를 고려한 평가가 경관선호평가에 대한 종합성을 반영할 수 있다. 경관평가의 모호성에도 불구하고 경관의 본질은 우연성에 의존한다고 본다면 우연적 경관평가방법은 크게 무리가 없다. 결국 경관은 생명성을 지니고 있기 때문에 현상으로만 볼 것이 아니라 동시적이면서 산재적 이며 상황적 다양성으로 간주해야 하며 고러란 관점을 강조한 것이 우연적 경관선호 및 경관평가에 대한 접근이라 할 수 있다.도 나타났다. 직업간의 유의성은 학생과 타 직업간에 나타났다. 직업간의 유의성은 학생과 타 직업간에 현격하게 나타났으나, 개인차를 나타내는 속성적 변수는 상호보완적인 변수기능을 수행하고 있기 때문에 다양한 행동의 설명력있는 이유로 볼 수 없다.때로는 민담에서도 풍수가 주제가 되는 경우가 있고, 일반적으로는 역사적 사실이나 인물을 통하여 취락민이지녀온 자연요소에 대한 인식관 또는 그러한 생활에서 나타나는 윤리관 등이 암암리에 표현되기도 한다. 민담을 통하여 우리는 주민들 의식 속에 남아있는 취락의 중요한 요소나 장소들을 찾아볼수 있고 더불어 이들을 중심으로 이루어 졌을지도 모를 생활모습들을 생각해볼 수 있다. 이러한 것들은 $\ulcorner$순응$\lrcorner$의 다른 일면 또는 때에 따라서는 극히 의도적인 $\ulcorner$표현$\lrcorner$적인 한 면모 - 그 대표적인 경우로 정원을 구성하는데 개재된 인간의 의미는 무언가를 표현 또는 표출하고자 함에 있다는 점 -라 볼수도 있을, 예로써 성리학적 사고관념으로써 집과 정사 그리고 주변 경관을 자신의 내적본직 또는 윤리적 영역으로 삼아 묘사.표현.구체화 시켜가기도 한다. 최소한 동족부락의 한두 예들에서 그러한 $\ulcorner$표현$\lrcorner$적 의도에 의한 경관구성의 일면을 확인할수 있지만 엄밀히 생각하여 보면 이러한 예의 경우도 최락의 총체적인 외형은 마찬가지로 $\ulcorner$순응$\lrcorner$의 범위를 벗어나지 않는다. 그렇기 때문에도 $\ulcorner$순응$\lrcorner$$\ulcorner$표현$\lrcorner$의 성격과 형태를 외형상으로 더욱이 공간상에서는 뚜렷하게

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Economic Valuation of Urban Riverine Restoration and A Test of Social Desirability Bias (도심하천복원 경제가치 추정에서 사회규범편의 검정)

  • Choi, Andy S.;Sung, Chan Yong;Baek, Hyojin
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.645-673
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    • 2019
  • The hypothetical nature of stated preferences can lead to a hypothetical bias that might work as a normative pressure, influencing survey responses. This paper aims to test the impact of social desirability bias by comparing economic estimates based on both subjective and objective valuation questions. The case study is about an urban riverine restoration project in Deajeon, South Korea. As valuation methods both contingent valuation and choice experiments were comparatively applied. Based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 respondents, the test results offered contrasting conclusions between two test approaches. Accroding to the estimation results based on the conventional valuation, the marginal willingness to pay estimates are 10,500 KRW from CV; and 18,600 KRW for improving water quality, 2,200 KRW for the inside view, 8,900 KRW for the outside view, and 5,800 KRW for biodiversity from CE. A segmentation-based approach is a conventionally used method, which showed a limited impact of social desirability on willingness to pay estimates. The alternative parameterization-based approach measures a model-wide impact of social desirability, proving a significant bias. Although the study positioned a cheap-talk statement before the valuation section of the survey questionnaires, which might have pre-screened the bias, the overall implications of the results suggest a caution in reducing and observing hypothetical bias. There might remain a significant and substantial hypothetical bias even after cheap-talk, particularly in situations with strong social desirability, so that the potential role of objective valuation questions is guaranteed.