• Title/Summary/Keyword: Confidence Estimation

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Estimation of Pollutant EMCs and Loadings in Highway Runoff (국내 고속도로 강우 유출수의 EMCs 및 유출 부하량 산정)

  • Kim, Lee-Hyung;Ko, Seok-Oh;Lee, Byung-Sik;Kim, Sunggil
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.2B
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    • pp.225-231
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    • 2006
  • The nonpoint source control is based on TPLMS (Total Pollution Load Management System) program. Recently, the Ministry of Environment in Korea has programed TPLMS for 4 major large rivers to improve the water quality in rivers by controling the total pollutant loadings from the watershed area. Usually the urbanization is the main pollutant sources, particularly for nonpoint pollutants, because of high imperviousness and high pollutant mass emissions. The stormwater runoff from urban areas is containing various pollutants such as sediments, metals and toxic chemicals due to human and vehicle activities. Of the various landuses, the highways are highly polluted landuses because of high pollutant accumulation rate by vehicle activities during dry periods. Therefore, this research is achieved to provide pollutant EMCs (Event Mean Concentrations) and mass loadings washed-off from highways during rainfall periods. Five monitoring locations were equipped with an automatic rainfall gage and an flow meter. The results show that the EMC ranges for 95% confidence intervals in highway land use are 45.52-125.76 mg/L for TSS, 52.04-95.48 mg/L for COD, 1.77-4.48 mg/L for TN, 0.29-0.54 mg/L for TP. The ranges of washed- off mass loading are $712.7-2,418.4mg/m^2$ for TSS and $684.1-1,779.6mg/m^2$ for COD.

Population Size and Home Range Estimates of Domestic Cats (Felis catus) on Mara Islet, Jeju, in the Republic of Korea (제주 마라도에 서식하는 고양이(Felis catus)의 개체군 크기 및 행동권 추정)

  • Kim, Yujin;Lee, Woo-Shin;Choi, Chang-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2020
  • Domestic cats (Felis catus) introduced to insular environments can be invasive predators that often threaten endemic species and cause biodiversity loss or local extinction on the island. This study was conducted from March to July 2018 to understand the population size, home range, and spatial use of cats introduced to Mara Islet (N 33° 07', E 126° 16') in Jeju Special Governing Province, the Republic of Korea. Observation records based on their natural marks revealed that there were 20 adult cats on Mara Islet. A capture-recapture method also estimated 20 adult individuals (95% confidence interval: 20-24 individuals). According to our telemetry study on ten adults deployed with GPS-based telemetry units, the home range size was 12.05±6.99 ha (95% KDE: kernel density estimation), and the core habitat size was 1.60±0.77 ha (50% KDE). There were no significant differences in the home range and core habitat sizes by sex. The home range of domestic cats overlapped with the human residential area, where they might secure easy foods. Five of ten tracked cats were active at potential breeding colonies for the Crested Murrlet (Synthliboramphus wumizusume), and six approached potential breeding areas of the Styan's Grasshopper Warbler (Locustella pleskei), suggesting the predation risk of the two endangered species by cats. This study provides novel information on the population size and home range of introduced cats on Mara Islet which is an important stopover site of migratory birds as well as a breeding habitat of the two endangered avian species. Reducing the potential negative impacts of the introduced cats on migratory birds and the endangered species on Mara Islet requires monitoring of the predation rate of birds by cats, the population trends of cats and endangered breeding birds as well as the effective cat population control and management.

Studies on the Estimation of Annual Tree Volume Growth for the Use as Basic Data on the Plan of Timber Supply and Demand in Korea - The Sub-sampling Oriented - (우리나라 목재수급계획(木材需給計劃)의 기초자료(基礎資料)로 활용(活用)키 위한 연간(年間) 임목성장량(林木成長量)의 추정(推定)에 관한 연구(硏究) - 부차추출법(副次抽出法)을 중심(中心)으로 -)

  • Lee, Jong Lak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 1983
  • This study was to estimate total annual volume growth by the measurement of mean tree growth during the last 10 years. Surveyed Forest stand was the second block (20.80 ha.)of Kyung Hee University Forests located at San 58 and 64, Gaegok-Ri, Gapyung-Yeup, Gapyung-Goon, Kyunggi province in Korea. The stand was mainly composed of uneven-aged Pinus densiflora and the estimation of tree volume was conducted by taking the cores at the D.B.H. of the sample tree which was selected by sub-sampling. The results obtained were as follows; 1) The regression between the diameter (D) and diameter growth ($\hat{I}$) was $\hat{I}=0.5499+0.0101D$. 2) The estimated equation of confidence interval for the diameter growth was $S^2{\hat{I}}=0.00817(0.09538-0.00952D+0.00027D^2$) 3) The equation for estimating tree height (H) from diameter was $H=1.32376D^{0.77958}$ 4) The equation for estimating tree volume from diameter and height $V=0.0000622D^{1.6918}H^{1.1397}$ 5) Total annual tree volume growth was $5.4041m^3/ha$, and ranged from 5.6131 to $5.1984m^3/ha$. 6) Annual growth rate of total tree volume and its error were 8.8% and 3.9%, respectively. The annual volume growth per tree for any districts can be estimated by this method, and the annual volume growth will be successfully predicted. Because of poor forest growing stock in Korea, annual amount of allowable cut should not exceed annual tree volume growth for better forest management. Accordingly, annual amount of allowable cut should be either equal to or less than annual tree volume growth for the balanced establishment between timber supply and demand in Korea. Demand shortage will be substituted with imported timber. Such plans enable Korean Government to develop a better policy of forest resources management.

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Effect of Diet Regimen of Sasang Constitution on Health Status (사상체질별 식이 섭생이 건강에 미치는 영향 -한방건강증진센터 시범운영을 위한 기초연구-)

  • Kim, Kwuy-Bun;Cho, Kyoul-Ja;Lee, Hyang-Yeon;Shin, Hye-Sook;Kim, Kwang-Joo;Moon, Heui-Ja;Kim, Yoon-Hee;Kang, Hyun-Sook;Park, Shin-Ae;Ji, Eun-Sun
    • Journal of East-West Nursing Research
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.18-31
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    • 2002
  • This study, as a basic research to manage a Chinese Medicine Health Promotion Center by way of showing an example, is a before and after experiment research for simple group to verify a difference with cholesterol, health status and perception of health in order to confirm a effectiveness of diet and regimen according to the 4th status of physical constitution. Research object was chosen of 42 persons who operate a physical constitutional dietary regimen among them after selecting professors and clinical nurses (55 persons) majoring in the science of nursing who participated in Chinese Medicine-oriented Nurse Training Course from Aug. of 2001 to Feb. of 2002 all over the country. Diagnostic tools for physical constitution was used of the questionary that is currently consisted of physical constitution grouping test in Eastern & Western Diagnose Center of K Medical Center, and rating of health status was used of the tool that standardized CMI(Cornell Medical Index) to be available for Korean, and perception measurement for health status was used of a visual analogue scale for the health status that each one perceive personally, and physiological status was measured of cholesterol in blood. Analysis for the collected data was carried out by percentage, $X^2$ test, paired t-test according to research object by using SPSS, and the results of this study are as follows. 1) There was no difference with cholesterol before or after the experiment for objects. As a result of estimation about difference with health status by areas before or after the experiment, there are more improved result in eyes, ears, digestive organs, bones and sinews organs, frequency of a disorder, habit, adaptation status, angry, healthy status than before the experiment. As a whole, after the experiment the health was more improved than before the experiment. As the result to inspect a difference of health perception between before and after experiment, after the experiment the health perception level was improved than before, however there was no meaningful differences. 2) As the result to inspect a difference of cholesterol between before and after experiment according to object's physical constitution, in the case of So-yang-in(a person with the minimum male: according to the male and female principles(the sun and the moon)) among the 4th status of physical constitution there was only meaningful difference statistically, however, after the experiment their cholesterol's value was increased. As the result to inspect the difference of health status between before and after the experiment according to physical constitution, all of Ta-um-in(a person with maximum the female), So-yang-in(with the minimum male), So-um-in(with the minimum female) had a meaningful difference before and after the experiment, which means that in all case by physical constitutional groups, after the experiment their health status was more improved than before the experiment. As the result to inspect a difference of health perception between before and after according to physical constitutions, in the case of Tae-um-in and So-um-in, average score after the experiment was risen than before the experiment so that it means that the level of health perception was improved, however, there was no meaning statistically. According to the above results, if continuous diet and regimen by each physical constitutions could be implemented, it is certain that the health could be maintained and promoted. And, what we are healthy is for oneself to feel it subjectively. However, I think that cholesterol score in blood that we can view objectively could be changed distinctly if we can implement a strict diet and regimen. Accordingly, it is necessary for a method and period of experiment to be more strict and longer. According to the above results, I would like to suggest as follows. 1) In order to understand health status by Korean's physical constitutions and to generalize it, these research will be repeated against much more objects that could be selected by proper grouping method to consider a representative. 2) It is necessary for a research to inspect health status by physical constitution by developing a health status measurement tool that has higher confidence and propriety based on physical constitutional theory.

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High Speed Rail Station Distric Using Entropy Model Study to Estimate the Trip Distribution (엔트로피 모형을 활용한 고속철도 역세권 통행분포 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Hangung;Kim, Sigon;Kim, Jinhowan;Jeon, Sangmin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.6D
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2012
  • KTX step 1 April 2004, after the opening, the second phase of the project was opened in November 2010. High-speed rail after the opening and continue to increase the demand of high-speed rail, Have the speed of competitive advantage compared too the means of transportation. The opening of these high-speed rail has led to changes of the move, the company's position, and the spatial structure of the population of reorganization, such as the social, economic, transportation. In this study, survey data using the High Speed Rail Station EMME/2 of the program to take advantage of the 2-Dimentional Blancing trip distribution to investigate the passage through the trip distribution by the estimation of the parameters of the model to estimate the distribution of the means of access and high-speed rail station to reproduce and Analysis of the results by means of access parameters (${\theta}$) autos 0.0395, buses 0.0390, subway 0.0650, taxi 0.0415, the frequency distribution (Trip Length Frequency Distribution: TLFD) were analyzed survey data value model with the results of comparing $R^2$ cars analysis and model values similar survey data 0.909 bus 0.923, subway 0.745 to 0.922, taxi, F test P value analysis is smaller than 0.05 at the 95% confidence level as a note that was judged to have been. Trip frequency distribution analysis, but in the future, set the unit to 5km-trip frequency distribution middle zone Units from small zone units (administrative district) segmentation research is needed, and can reflect the trip distance 0~5 km interval combined function to take advantage of the gravity model and the 3-Dimentional Blancing applied research is needed to be considered.

The Analysis of Blood Glucose Level Difference According to the Exact Use of Blood Glucose Measurement Test Strips in $^{18}F$-FDG Wholebody PET ($^{18}F$-FDG를 이용한 전신 PET 검사에서 혈당 측정 검사지의 정확한 사용에 따른 혈당 수치의 차이 분석)

  • Park, Soon-Ki;Lee, Nam-Ki;NamGung, Chang-Kyung;Jung, Woo-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.100-103
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: $^{18}F$-FDG wholebody PET is to evaluate the tumor using glucose metabolism. The blood glucose level is important factor that affects on a result of examination. High glucose levels may interfere with tumor targeting due to competitive inhibition of FDG uptake by D-glucose. The blood glucose level measurement test strips used in the blood glucose measurement are classified into the capillary blood measurement test strips and general purpose measurement test strips that can measure the venous blood and capillary blood altogether depends on cases. The purpose of the study was to compare the blood glucose measurements between simultaneously obtained capillary and venous blood samples using the capillary blood measurement test strips, general purpose measurement test strips. Materials and Methods: A total of 46 subjects (32 males, 14 females) with a mean age of $57.3{\pm}12.3$ years were enrolled. The blood glucose estimation was performed with a Optium Xceed Glucometer (Abbott). Simultaneous capillary and venous blood samples were obtained from each subject. The blood glucose levels were measured using the capillary blood measurement test strips and general purpose measurement test strips. The capillary and venous measurements were compared using a pared t-test. Results: The mean capillary and venous glucose values using the general purpose measurement test strips were $95.2{\pm}12.4$ mg/dL and $104.1{\pm}14.4$ mg/dL, giving a statistically significant difference (p<0.001) between the mean values for the capillary and venous glucose samples (9.0 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval (CI) -11.2 to -6.7). The mean capillary and venous glucose values using the capillary blood measurement test strips were $91.5{\pm}13.6$ mg/dL and $108.6{\pm}16.2$ mg/dL, giving a statistically significant difference (p<0.001) between the mean values for the capillary and venous glucose samples (16.6 mg/dL; 95% CI -20.2 to -13.0). Conclusion: When measuring the blood glucose level before $^{18}F$-FDG PET examination, since the incorrect blood glucose level can be measured, it should note to measure the blood glucose level of the venous blood by the capillary blood measurement test strips. Therefore the measurement variation can be reduced to fulfill the standardized measurement procedure with the suitable measurement test strips, the preparation of the PET examination will be able to be clearly confirmed. In addition, the standardized procedure of the following measurement on the area which is same at all times the blood area in the blood glucose measurement among a capillary or a vein will be needed.

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A Study to Validate the Pretest Probability of Malignancy in Solitary Pulmonary Nodule (사전검사를 통한 고립성 폐결절 환자에서의 악성 확률 타당성에 대한 연구)

  • Jang, Joo Hyun;Park, Sung Hoon;Choi, Jeong Hee;Lee, Chang Youl;Hwang, Yong Il;Shin, Tae Rim;Park, Yong Bum;Lee, Jae Young;Jang, Seung Hun;Kim, Cheol Hong;Park, Sang Myeon;Kim, Dong Gyu;Lee, Myung Goo;Hyun, In Gyu;Jung, Ki Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.67 no.2
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2009
  • Background: Solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) are encountered incidentally in 0.2% of patients who undergo chest X-ray or chest CT. Although SPN has malignant potential, it cannot be treated surgically by biopsy in all patients. The first stage is to determine if patients with SPN require periodic observation and biopsy or resection. An important early step in the management of patients with SPN is to estimate the clinical pretest probability of a malignancy. In every patient with SPN, it is recommended that clinicians estimate the pretest probability of a malignancy either qualitatively using clinical judgment or quantitatively using a validated model. This study examined whether Bayesian analysis or multiple logistic regression analysis is more predictive of the probability of a malignancy in SPN. Methods: From January 2005 to December 2008, this study enrolled 63 participants with SPN at the Kangnam Sacred Hospital. The accuracy of Bayesian analysis and Bayesian analysis with a FDG-PET scan, and Multiple logistic regression analysis was compared retrospectively. The accurate probability of a malignancy in a patient was compared by taking the chest CT and pathology of SPN patients with <30 mm at CXR incidentally. Results: From those participated in study, 27 people (42.9%) were classified as having a malignancy, and 36 people were benign. The result of the malignant estimation by Bayesian analysis was 0.779 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.657 to 0.874). Using Multiple logistic regression analysis, the result was 0.684 (95% CI, 0.555 to 0.796). This suggests that Bayesian analysis provides a more accurate examination than multiple logistic regression analysis. Conclusion: Bayesian analysis is better than multiple logistic regression analysis in predicting the probability of a malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules but the difference was not statistically significant.

Single Laboratory Validation and Uncertainty Estimation of a HPLC Analysis Method for Deoxynivalenol in Noodles (면류에서 HPLC를 이용한 데옥시니발레놀 분석법의 검증과 불확도 산정)

  • Ee, Ok-Hyun;Chang, Hyun-Joo;Kang, Young-Woon;Kim, Mee-Hye;Chun, Hyang-Sook
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.142-149
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    • 2011
  • An isocratic high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method for routine analysis of deoxynivalenol in noodles was validated and estimated the measurement uncertainty. Noodles (dried noodle and ramyeon) were analyzed by HPLC-ultraviolet detection using immunoaffinity column for clean-up. The limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) were 7.5 ${\mu}g$/kg and 18.8 ${\mu}g$/kg, respectively. The calibration curve showed a good linearity, with correlation coefficients $r^2$ of 0.9999 in the concentration range from 20 to 500 ${\mu}g$/kg. Recoveries and Repeatabilities expressed as coefficients of variation (CV) spiked with 200 and 500 ${\mu}g$/kg were $82{\pm}2.7%$ and $87{\pm}1.3%$% in dried noodle, and $97{\pm}1.6%$ and $91{\pm}12.0%$ in ramyeon, respectively. The uncertainty sources in measurement process were identified as sample weight, final volume, and sample concentration in extraction volume as well as components such as standard stock solution, working standard solution, 5 standard solutions, calibration curve, matrix, and instrument. Deoxynivalenol concentration and expanded uncertainty in two matrixes spiked with 200 ${\mu}g$/kg and 500 ${\mu}g$/kg were estimated to be $163.8{\pm}52.1$ and $435.2{\pm}91.6\;{\mu}g$/kg for dried noodle, and $194.3{\pm}33.0$ and $453.2{\pm}91.1\;{\mu}g$/kg for ramyeon using a coverage factor of two which gives a level of statistical confidence with approximately 95%. The most influential component among uncertainty sources was the recovery of matrix, followed by calibration curve.

Performance effectiveness of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatricrisk of mortality III (PRISM III) in pediatric patients with intensive care in single institution: Retrospective study (단일 병원에서 소아 중환자의 예후인자 예측을 위한 PIM2 (pediatric index of mortality 2)와 PRIMS III (pediatric risk of mortality)의 유효성 평가 - 후향적 조사 -)

  • Hwang, Hui Seung;Lee, Na Young;Han, Seung Beom;Kwak, Ga Young;Lee, Soo Young;Chung, Seung Yun;Kang, Jin Han;Jeong, Dae Chul
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1158-1164
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : To investigate the discriminative ability of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatric risk of mortality III (PRISM III) in predicting mortality in children admitted into the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods : We retrospectively analyzed variables of PIM2 and PRISM III based on medical records with children cared for in a single hospital ICU from January 2003 to December 2007. Exclusions were children who died within 2 h of admission into ICU or hopeless discharge. We used Students t test and ANOVA for general characteristics and for correlation between survivors and non-survivors for variables of PIM2 and PRISM III. In addition, we performed multiple logistic regression analysis for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for discrimination, and calculated standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for estimation of prediction. Results : We collected 193 medical records but analyzed 190 events because three children died within 2 h of ICU admission. The variables of PIM2 correlated with survival, except for the presence of post-procedure and low risk. In PRISM III, there was a significant correlation for cardiovascular/neurologic signs, arterial blood gas analysis but not for biochemical and hematologic data. Discriminatory performance by ROC showed an area under the curve 0.858 (95% confidence interval; 0.779-0.938) for PIM2, 0.798 (95% CI; 0.686-0.891) for PRISM III, respectively. Further, SMR was calculated approximately as 1 for the 2 systems, and multiple logistic regression analysis showed ${\chi}^2(13)=14.986$, P=0.308 for PIM2, ${\chi}^2(13)=12.899$, P=0.456 for PRISM III in Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. However, PIM2 was significant for PRISM III in the likelihood ratio test (${\chi}^2(4)=55.3$, P<0.01). Conclusion : We identified two acceptable scoring systems (PRISM III, PIM2) for the prediction of mortality in children admitted into the ICU. PIM2 was more accurate and had a better fit than PRISM III on the model tested.

Review and Improvement of Highway Design Consistency Evaluation Models (설계 일관성 평가 모형의 고찰과 개선방안 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Youp;Choi, Jai-Sung;Yang, Ji-Eun;Kim, Moon-Kyum
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.8 no.4 s.30
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2006
  • It's essential to meet the expectations of drivers through reasonable road design, which makes the drivers to recognize the conditions of road sufficiently. In this case, we could say that because the roads are consistently designed, drivers can make a safe and comfortable drive. There are so many studies about the alignment design consistency methods which are previously mentioned. In this study, Firstly we categorize the studies which are concerned with the estimation of the alignment design consistency methods and then apply the method which fits for the actual condition into the practice. And we'll make a realistic method by using the data which aye collected from the National Road. The developed model in this study is the predicting model including speed($V_t$) as the variable on the upper stream 100m of the curve. This model was developed which divided to two cases in the all directions of two lanes; One case is the $R{\leq}200m$ and another case is the R>200m. In the section of the $R{\leq}200m$, this case was influenced on the road alignment(R) and($V_t$) and another section was found that is affected to the speed($V_t$) on the upper stream loom rather than the effect of road alignment(R). In the case of all directions of four lanes, however, this study is predicted divided to two sections on the 400m of R, these section have more influenced to($V_t$) than the road alignment factors. This result of the four lanes was represented to different result with the two lanes. This study will further need development of the predicting model with the higher confidence through collecting data with more the exact data, the various road alignment data and speed of the several sections on the upper stream on the curve.

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