• 제목/요약/키워드: Causal Loop

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한국의 미래 에너지사회 전망에 관한 연구 : 계층분석법과 인과지도의 보완적 분석을 중심으로 (A Research on the Prospect for the Future Energy Society in Korea: Focused on the Complementary Analysis of AHP and Causal Loop Diagram)

  • 황병용;최한림;안남성
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.61-86
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    • 2010
  • This research analyzed on the future energy society of Korea in 2030 using system thinking approach. Key uncertainty factors determining the future energy society were analyzed in a multi disciplinary view point such as politics, economy, society, ecology and technology. Three causal loop diagrams for the future energy system in Korea and related policy leverages were shown as well. 'Global economic trends', 'change of industrial structure' and 'energy price' were identified as key uncertainty factors determining the Korean energy future. Three causal loop diagrams named as 'rate of energy self-sufficiency and alternative energy production', 'economic activity and energy demand' and 'Excavation of new growth engines' were developed. We integrated those causal loop diagrams into one to understand the entire energy system of the future, proposed three strategic scenarios(optimistic, pessimistic and most likely) and discussed implications and limits of this research.

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인과지도를 활용한 건설 안전사고 원인 분석 : 안전문화 관점 (A Cause Analysis of the Construction Incident Using Causal Loop Diagram : Safety Culture Perspective)

  • 최윤길;조근태
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제35권2호
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    • pp.34-46
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    • 2020
  • Unlike research focused on existing technologies and individual errors to analyze the causes of incidents, this study approached them from an organization and culture. And this study is not a one way study but cyclical study what can track cause down using causal loop diagram methodology. Four diagnostic criteria for the negative state of the safety culture : secretive, blame, failure to learning, and incremental learning, combine literature study and expert opinion to derive 41 variables. Connecting these variable make 4 causal loop diagrams and total causal loop diagram. Case accumulation in secretive, accident report in blame, knowledge accumulation in failure to learning, near miss discovery in incremental learning are the main variables. Safety incident is the objective variable by classifying them into 4 stages in total loop, leading track as the most affect is case accumulation, and Step 4 as you can see accident report and near miss discovery are the result of tracking down the cause. This study can be used as a basis for improving the management priority and the system in incident prevention.

친환경차 확산전략에 대한 시스템다이내믹스 접근과 인과지도 분석 (System Dynamics Approaches on Green Car Diffusion Strategies and the Causal Diagram Analysis)

  • 박경배
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.33-55
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    • 2012
  • The research is to identify important diffusion factors and their effects on green car diffusion process using system dynamics perspectives and a causal-loop analysis. Through a deep review on previous research, we have found the important factors of green car diffusion process. Price, driving range, network effect, recharge system, fuel cost had important facilitation on consumer attraction and green car diffusion. Based on the review, we have constructed a causal loop diagram explaining hybrid car diffusion process. We have found 3 important reinforcing loops in the causal loop diagram. Loop for learning & economies of scale(supply side), loop for network effect(consumer side), and loop for battery development(technology side) had most significant roles in the whole diffusion process. Through a deliberate analysis on the 3 causal loops, we have found meaningful results. First, there seems to exist a critical mass in the diffusion. Second, of the 3 loops, the battery technology had most significant role. Third, not consumer installed base but sales must be a standard to decide whether the critical mass is achieved or not. Based on these findings, several meaningful implications are suggested for the government and corporations related to the green car industries.

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Exploring the Causal Structure of Adolescent Media Addiction and Policy Intervention

  • Hwang, In Young;Park, Jeong Hun
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • 제12권4호
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2016
  • Adolescent media addiction has emerged as an important social agenda in Korea. However, there has not been enough discussion on the causal structure of media addiction and policy interventions. The objective of this study is to identify and assess the mechanism of the existing and the revised Shutdown policy based on the systems thinking approach. To achieve this purpose, we establish the relationship between media usage, flow, and addiction, and develop a causal loop diagram. Based on the causal loop diagram, we explore the causal structure of two policy scenarios: shutdown policy and deregulation. Our study suggests that policy interventions inducing direct parental control on children's media usage time are ineffective since the time control reduces children's autonomy, which helps alleviate media addiction. Therefore, this study suggests that policy intervention should focus on alleviating addiction itself rather than on controlling media usage time.

시스템 사고에 의한 학교 자율화 정책 분석 (Analysis of School Autonomy Policy based on the System Thinking)

  • 박수정;권순형
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.5-27
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the school autonomy policy based on the system thinking perspective using causal loop diagrams. School autonomy was the main educational policy concerning school domain during the last government and was the instrument for school-based management, but it was not implemented effectively in site. The school autonomy policy practically disappeared as an explicit policy agenda in the current government. This study displays causal loop diagrams about the policy's logic and contents of school autonomy, in terms of curriculum, human resource management, and a supportive system. The causal loop diagrams depicting the implementation of the school autonomy policy are suggested concerning excessive enforcement and the confirmative mechanism for policy implementation. The conclusion provides some research implications and future directions.

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Causal Loop Diagram을 활용한 무인항공체계 기반 시설물 관리 영향인자 분석 (Analysis of Performance Factors of Unmanned Aircraft System(UAS)-based Facility Management using Causal Loop Diagram)

  • 권진혁;유채연;김성진
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.85-86
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    • 2022
  • Traditionally, the facility inspection was visually conducted by the managers, and consequently the result can be subjective because of different perspective and experience of them. To solve this problem, the studies on this topic has tried to integrate the UAS. However, it is still concerned to use in practice due to the lack of analysis of the performance factors affecting the UAS-based facility condition inspection. Hence, the purpose of this study is to identify the critical factors as well as their correlations by modeling causal loop diagram (CLD). A total of 20 variables were derived in four categorized groups, and the relationships were analyzed. Further study will develop a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate various scenarios based on stock-flow diagram through the defined relationships in this study.

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시스템사고로 본 압축도시의 공간적 특성과 지속가능성과의 동태적 관계 (System Thinking Perspective on the Dynamic Relationship between Spatial Characteristics of Compact City and Urban Sustainability)

  • 김리영;문태훈
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.5-28
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to review relationship between spatial characteristics of compact city and urban sustainabiliy from system dynamics perspective using causal loop analysis. It has been argued that spatial characteristics of compact city, high population density and mixed land use, are positively related to urban sustainability. However, research results that are not consistent with pros of compact city argument have been accumulated too. It is especially true when spatial characteristics of compact city are examined with regard to each dimension of sustainablility: economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Reviewing each dimension of sustainability with regard to spatial characteristics based on causal loop analysis, this paper provides more clear understanding on relationship between compact city and sustainability. Also this paper provides a base for system dynamics simulation for future study.

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시스템 사고를 통한 금융 규제와 보안 산업의 구조 분석 (A Structural Analysis between Financial Regulations and Security Industry through the Systems Thinking)

  • 이정하
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.31-50
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this research is to understand a structural relationship between financial regulations and security industry based on the systems thinking perspective using causal loop analysis. As a result, the positive regulations on security technology against finance security incidents shrink the autonomy of the security industry and will deteriorate the competitiveness of the security industry through the unknown feedback loop. The conclusion provides the direction that policy makers understand causal loop diagram related current regulations and open enough to the consideration of the negative regulations.

환노출과 환노출 완화 전략의 인과관계에 관한 탐색적 연구 : 시스템 사고에 의한 접근 (Exploratory Study on Causality of Foreign Exchange Exposure and Hedge Strategy: Systems Thinking Approach)

  • 엄재근;정창권;설원식
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.97-131
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze Foreign Exchange(FX) exposure and FX hedge strategy based on the systems thinking perspective using causal loop diagrams. FX exposure has been a critical issue on a business management. Many studies in Korea have researches on variables which make effects to the company value. This study displays causal loop diagrams(CLDs) on these issues. In order to make CLD more objective, most causalities are articulated from recent 72 studies (1998~2013) of domestic top journals. This approach is valuable in that it is the first try to draw all the causalities from various literature review regarding FX exposure and FX hedge strategy. This study is expected to make a useful and basic material to research the financial issues of corporate, as the first research to dynamically understand FX exposure and FX hedge strategy.

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시스템 다이나믹스 관점에서의 버스 운영계획모형 해석 (System Dynamics Interpretation on Bus Scheduling Model)

  • 김경식
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구는 기존의 버스 운영계획모형을 시스템 다이나믹스(System Dynamics : SD) 관점에서 검토하는 것을 주된 목적으로 하고 있다. 결정변수들 간의 선형적 관계에 기초한 교��비용모델에 SD관점을 적용하여 순환적 관계로의 재구성을 시도하였으며, 그 결과물로 최적배차간격모형의 인과지도(Causal Loop Diagram)을 제시하였다. 또한 계량적 시뮬레이션이 가능한 저유량 인과지도(Stock & Flow Diagram)을 작성하여 시뮬레이션 결과의 의미를 논의하였다. 연구결과, 시뮬레이션에 적용한 수식이 기존의 교통비용모형에 토대를 두고 있기 때문에 시뮬레이션 결과가 기존의 연구와 큰 차이를 보이지 않았다.

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