Korean System Dynamics Review (한국시스템다이내믹스연구)

Korean System Dynamics Society (한국시스템다이내믹스학회)
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A Research on the Prospect for the Future Energy Society in Korea: Focused on the Complementary Analysis of AHP and Causal Loop Diagram

한국의 미래 에너지사회 전망에 관한 연구 : 계층분석법과 인과지도의 보완적 분석을 중심으로

  • 황병용 (한국과학기술기획평가원) ;
  • 최한림 (한국과학기술기획평가원) ;
  • 안남성 (우송대학교 솔브릿지 국제경영대학)
  • Received : 2010.08.27
  • Accepted : 2010.10.14
  • Published : 2010.10.31
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Abstract

This research analyzed on the future energy society of Korea in 2030 using system thinking approach. Key uncertainty factors determining the future energy society were analyzed in a multi disciplinary view point such as politics, economy, society, ecology and technology. Three causal loop diagrams for the future energy system in Korea and related policy leverages were shown as well. 'Global economic trends', 'change of industrial structure' and 'energy price' were identified as key uncertainty factors determining the Korean energy future. Three causal loop diagrams named as 'rate of energy self－sufficiency and alternative energy production', 'economic activity and energy demand' and 'Excavation of new growth engines' were developed. We integrated those causal loop diagrams into one to understand the entire energy system of the future, proposed three strategic scenarios(optimistic, pessimistic and most likely) and discussed implications and limits of this research.

Keywords

References

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