• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제54권5호
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• pp.769-781
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• 2021

Given data about the annual fishery yield of the common squid Todarodes pacificus, and the catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data from multiple fisheries from 2000-2018, we applied a Bayesian state - space assessment model for the squid population. One of our objectives was to do a stock assessment, simultaneously incorporating CPUE data from the following three fisheries, (i) large trawl, (ii) jigger, and (iii) large purse seine, which comprised on average a year about 65% of all fisheries, allowing possible correlations to be reflected. Other objectives were to consider both observation and process errors and to apply objective priors of parameters. The estimated annual exploitable biomass was in the range of 3.50×10⁵ to 1.22×10⁶ MT, the estimated intrinsic growth rate was 1.02, and the estimated carrying capacity was 1,151,259 MT. Comparison with available results from stock assessment of independently analyzed single fisheries revealed a large difference from the estimated values, suggesting that stock assessment based on multiple fisheries should be performed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.189-199
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• 2020

This paper studies a Bayesian ordered multiple linear regression model with skew normal error. It is reasonable that the kind of inherent information available in an applied regression requires some constraints on the coefficients to be estimated. In addition, the assumption of normality of the errors is sometimes not appropriate in the real data. Therefore, to explain such situations more flexibly, we use the skew-normal distribution given by Sahu et al. (The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 31, 129-150, 2003) for error-terms including normal distribution. For Bayesian methodology, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is employed to resolve complicated integration problems. Also, under the improper priors, the propriety of the associated posterior density is shown. Our Bayesian proposed model is applied to NZAPB's apple data. For model comparison between the skew normal error model and the normal error model, we use the Bayes factor and deviance information criterion given by Spiegelhalter et al. (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology), 64, 583-639, 2002). We also consider the problem of detecting an influential point concerning skewness using Bayes factors. Finally, concluding remarks are discussed.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.909-922
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• 2014

부등제한 조건 (>,<,=)과 관련된 베이지안 추론에서 다음의 세 가지 주제에 대하여 기존의 연구와 최근의 연구동향 그리고 추후 연구주제에 대하여 살펴보았다 : ⅰ) 모수에 대한 여러 부등제한 조건들의 비교, ⅱ) 모수에 부등제한 조건을 부여하는 것이 타당하다고 할 때 모수의 동등성에 관한 동시 다중 검정, ⅲ) 순서적 범주형 변수에 대한 분할표에서 스코어 모수에 순서적 부등제한 조건을 가정 할 때 스코어 모수의 동등성에 대한 다중 검정.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국데이터정보과학회 2006년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.71-80
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• 2006

A nonparametric Bayesian multiple comparisons problem (MCP) for dependence parameters in I bivariate exponential populations is studied here. A simple method for pairwise comparisons of these parameters is also suggested. Here we extend the methodology studied by Gopalan and Berry (1998) using Dirichlet process priors. The family of Dirichlet process priors is applied in the form of baseline prior and likelihood combination to provide the comparisons. Computation of the posterior probabilities of all possible hypotheses are carried out through Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, namely, Gibbs sampling, due to the intractability of analytic evaluation. The whole process of MCP for the dependent parameters of bivariate exponential populations is illustrated through a numerical example.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.261-269
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• 2015

Nowadays the application of change point analysis has been indispensable in a wide range of areas such as quality control, finance, environmetrics, medicine, geographics, and engineering. Identification of times where process changes would help minimize the consequences that might happen afterwards. The main objective of this paper is to compare the change-point detection capabilities of Bayesian estimate and maximum likelihood estimate. We applied Bayesian and maximum likelihood techniques to formulate change points having a step change and multiple number of change points in a Poisson rate. After a signal from c-chart and Poisson cumulative sum control charts have been detected, Monte Carlo simulation has been applied to investigate the performance of Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation. Change point detection capacities of Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation techniques have been investigated through simulation. It has been found that the Bayesian estimates outperforms standard control charts well specially when there exists a small to medium size of step change. Moreover, it performs convincingly well in comparison with the maximum like-lihood estimator and remains good choice specially in confidence interval statistical inference.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.97-107
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• 2001

A simultaneous test criterion for multiple hypotheses concerning comparison of two multivariate normal populations is considered by using the so called Bayes factor method. Fully parametric frequentist approach for the test is not available and thus Bayesian criterion is pursued using a Bayes factor that eliminates its arbitrariness problem induced by improper priors. Specifically, the fractional Bayes factor (FBF) by O'Hagan (1995) is used to derive the criterion. Necessary theories involved in the derivation an computation of the criterion are provided. Finally, an illustrative simulation study is given to show the properties of the criterion.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.561-589
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• 2022

When multiple classifications and regression trees are combined, tree-based ensemble models, such as random forest (RF) and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), are produced. We compare the model structures and performances of various ensemble models for regression settings in this study. RF learns bootstrapped samples and selects a splitting variable from predictors gathered at each node. The BART model is specified as the sum of trees and is calculated using the Bayesian backfitting algorithm. Throughout the extensive simulation studies, the strengths and drawbacks of the two methods in the presence of missing data, high-dimensional data, or highly correlated data are investigated. In the presence of missing data, BART performs well in general, whereas RF provides adequate coverage. The BART outperforms in high dimensional, highly correlated data. However, in all of the scenarios considered, the RF has a shorter computation time. The performance of the two methods is also compared using two real data sets that represent the aforementioned situations, and the same conclusion is reached.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.13-26
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• 2008

Inference on the present data will be more reliable when the data arising from previous similar studies are available. The data arising from previous studies are referred as historical data. The power prior is defined by the likelihood function based on the historical data to the power $a_0$, where $0\;{\le}\;a_0\;{\le}\;1$. The power prior is a useful informative prior for Bayesian inference such as model selection and model comparison. We utilize the historical data to perform multiple comparison in the one-way ANOVA model. We demonstrate our results with some simulated datasets under a simple order restriction between the treatments.

• 콘크리트학회논문집
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.499-510
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• 2010

이 연구의 목적은 Bayesian 통계법을 통하여 얻어진 만족도 곡선을 활용하여 체계적으로 콘크리트 재료성능을 평가하고 배합설계를 하는 것이다. 단일변수 만족도 곡선은 콘크리트 성능기준을 만족할 확률을 콘크리트 재료변수 함수로서 나타낸다. 여러 개의 만족도 곡선을 결합해 하나의 만족도 곡선으로 나타내기 위하여 Importance Factor와 Goodness value라는 신규개념을 도입하여 서로 다른 재료변수들이 콘크리트성능에 미치는 영향을 정량화하고 서로 다른 재료변수들을 공통된 하나의 변수로 통합하는 것을 가능하도록 하였다. 또한 PBMD 과정에 의한 설계예제를 제시함으로써 목표지향적 콘크리트배합설계의 한 방법을 제시하고 그 유효성에 대해 증명하였다. 마지막으로, 실제 구조물에 대한 적용 가능성을 확인하기 위해 PBMD과정에 의한 콘크리트의 기대성능 결과값과 ACI 기준에 의한 결과값을 비교하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.553-560
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• 2007

In this paper, we consider two components system which lifetimes have Freund's bivariate exponential model with equal failure rates. We propose Bayesian multiple comparisons procedure for the failure rates of I Freund's bivariate exponential populations based on Dirichlet process priors(DPP). The family of DPP is applied in the form of baseline prior and likelihood combination to provide the comparisons. Computation of the posterior probabilities of all possible hypotheses are carried out through Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) method, namely, Gibbs sampling, due to the intractability of analytic evaluation. The whole process of multiple comparisons problem for the failure rates of bivariate exponential populations is illustrated through a numerical example.