• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률이론

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Transit Frequency Optimization with Variable Demand Considering Transfer Delay (환승지체 및 가변수요를 고려한 대중교통 운행빈도 모형 개발)

  • Yu, Gyeong-Sang;Kim, Dong-Gyu;Jeon, Gyeong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.147-156
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    • 2009
  • We present a methodology for modeling and solving the transit frequency design problem with variable demand. The problem is described as a bi-level model based on a non-cooperative Stackelberg game. The upper-level operator problem is formulated as a non-linear optimization model to minimize net cost, which includes operating cost, travel cost and revenue, with fleet size and frequency constraints. The lower-level user problem is formulated as a capacity-constrained stochastic user equilibrium assignment model with variable demand, considering transfer delay between transit lines. An efficient algorithm is also presented for solving the proposed model. The upper-level model is solved by a gradient projection method, and the lower-level model is solved by an existing iterative balancing method. An application of the proposed model and algorithm is presented using a small test network. The results of this application show that the proposed algorithm converges well to an optimal point. The methodology of this study is expected to contribute to form a theoretical basis for diagnosing the problems of current transit systems and for improving its operational efficiency to increase the demand as well as the level of service.

A Comparative Study on the Methods Estimating Wave Directional Spectrum (파향스펙트럼 추정법의 비교 연구)

  • 오병철;심재설
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 1990
  • Wave directional spectrum estimation methods for irregular waves were considered in this study. Until now, the Longuet-Higgins Method (LHM) initiated by Longuet-Higgins et al. (1963) has been widely used, but resolutions of the estimation were found to be low. Kobune's Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) for the estimation of wave directional spectrum, bas-ed on the entropy Principle showed higher resolutions comparing with the LHM . If the wave directional spectrum is of Delta functions, the MEM is exact in its estimation. It was also found that for a unimodal spectrum, if the Mitsuyasu's spreading coefficient is above 5, the estimation resolutions were high. In bimodal spectrum, as the angle difference between the two peaks increased, the resolution improved. The energy seems to transfer to the smoother peak in the smoothing of peak's peakedness. LHM has a tendency to estimate bimodal spectrum as a unimodal spectrum ; thus, except for its computational speed, the resolution of LHM falls far below that of MEM.

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A Case Study aimed at Junior High School 3rd Grade Student's Understanding of Variability (중학교 3학년 학생들의 변이성 이해에 대한 사례 연구)

  • Song, Seon-A;Lee, Kyung-Hwa
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.29-44
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    • 2007
  • The aim of statistics education is to enhance statistical thinking. Variability is the key components of statistical thinking. The research has been reviewed preceding research about variability of data. Proceeding from what has been considered above, this research developed learning materials that investigated the concept of variability as it relates to Freudenthal's context by having students sort a particular context. The research is executed the case study evidently aimed at Junior High School 3rd Grade Student's Understanding of Variability. The study of variability in data can be an important start to reach a testing of statistical hypothesis; students reduce data and draw graphs by relating probability distribution to relative frequency and normal distribution. Thus, this study offers basic materials into developing both contents and methods of education need to consider with this sense of purpose held by students to achieve this goal.

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Analytical Solutions for Predicting Movement Rate of Submerged Mound (수중둔덕의 이동율 예측을 위한 해석해)

    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.165-173
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    • 1998
  • Analytical solutions to predict the movement rate of submerged mound are derived using the convection coefficient and the joint distribution function of wave heights and periods. Assuming that the sediment is moved onshore due to the velocity asymmetry of Stokes' second order nonlinear wave theory, the micro-scale bedload transport equation is applied to the sediment conservation. The nonlinear convection-diffusion equation can then be obtained which governs the migration of submerged mound. The movement rate decreases exponentially with increasing the water depth, but the movement rate tends to increase as the spectral width parameter, $ u$ increases. In comparison of the analytical solution with the measured data, it is found that the analytical solution overestimates the movement rate. However, the agreement between the analytical solution and the measured data is encouraging since this over-estimation may be due to the inaccuracy of input data and the limitation of sediment transport model. In particular, the movement rates with respect to the water depth predicted by the analytical solution are in very good agreement with the estimated result using the discritization technique with the hindcast wave data.

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Performance Analysis of the WDM Protocol for the Multicast Traffics (멀티캐스트 트래픽 처리를 위한 WDM 프로토콜의 성능분석)

  • 정길현;이정규
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.26 no.11C
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    • pp.64-74
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, a dynamic minislot reservation protocol(DMRP) is proposed and analyzed to improve the performance of the multicast traffic processing in wavelength division multiplexing(WDM) networks. For the proposed protocol analysis, the WDM network architecture with a passive star coupler is used. One pair of transceiver is used for a control channel and the ocher pair of transceiver with one fixed transmitter and one tunable receiver are used for data transmission. In this protocol. the packets which fail to have successful transmission in the present time slot due to data channel and destination collisions, have priority to have successful reservation in the contention-less minislots of the next time slot. Therefore, protocols have improved the throughput and the system delay performance caused by the reduced probabilities of control channel contentions and destination collisions probability. Today, the efficient protocol that can handle the various types of data traffic is needed. As results, the DMRP is useful to improve the performance of throughput and system delay characteristics regardless of the kinds of traffic.

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A Simple Open Loop Transmit Diversity Scheme for Rician Fading Channels (라이시안 페이딩 채널을 위한 단순한 형태의 개방루프 전송 다이버시티 기법)

  • 김학성;이원철;신요안
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.27 no.7B
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    • pp.695-705
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we propose a simple open loop transmit diversity (TD) scheme for the wideband code division multiple access (W-CDMA) systems in Rician multipath fading channels such as rural area or satellite channels where line-of-sight (LOS) paths are in presence. The proposed scheme does not require any pre-processing of transmit data, resulting in simpler structure as compared to conventional closed loop transmit adaptive array (TxAA) and open loop space-time transmit diversity (STTD). We analytically derive the probability density function of signal-to-noise ratio at the Rake receiver output and the uncoded bit error rate performance of the proposed scheme. Extensive simulation is Performed to verify the analytical performance of the proposed scheme under typical Rician multipath fading channel environments. Moreover, comparative results with the conventional TxAA and STTD are also provided. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme shows slightly better performance than the conventional open loop STTD under the channels with very weak LOS components, however, it significantly outperforms the STTD under the channels with dominant LOS components, and achieves a close performance of ideal closed loop TxAA.

A Design of Kidney Diseases Diagnosis Method Using Formant Frequency Bandwidth Extraction and Analysis (포먼트 주파수 대역폭 추출 및 분석을 이용한 신장 질환 진단 방법의 설계)

  • Kim, Bong-Hyun;Cho, Dong-Uk
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.34 no.10B
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    • pp.1062-1069
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    • 2009
  • The kidney diseases is a big social problem what is suffering sequela of metabolic syndrome due to obesity. Therefore, it is most important that early to take the appropriate action; it does not have symptoms Abnormalities of the kidney. With this, in mind, this paper wish to propose the method to can diagnosis by non self-consciousness, non-imprisonment, analgesia of kidney disease through the voice analysis. To configure the entire system is developed to combines the voice analysis, watching the face color and this paper is designed the method to diagnosis kidney disease based on labial. In this paper, organized each kidney disease patients and healthy people group and we would like to analyze, compare with output in experiment morphology analysis and numerical value analysis of voice information. Secondly, auscultation theory of Oriental medicine and linguistic, phonetics analyze out interrelation to extraction peculiar elements of kidney about voice deduction deduced relation of the first formants frequency. Such result of experimentation, deduced widely to be formed the first formants frequency bandwidth value of kidney patients group than normal group. Finally, diagnosing an kidney diseases in only labial sound, calculated about misdiagnosis probability.

Is There a Stochastic Non-fundamental Trend in Korean Stock Price?: Inference under Transformed Error Correction Model (우리나라 주가에는 펀더멘털과 무관한 비정상 추세가 존재하는가?: 공적분 및 베버리지-넬슨 분해 접근)

  • Kim, Yun-Yeong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.107-131
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we test and estimate the stochastic non-fundamental trend in Korean stock market. For this, following Kim (2011), we exploit that the long-run equilibrium stock price may be decomposed into fundamental and stochastic non-fundamental trends (i.e., the sum of dividend innovations and a part that are orthogonal with the dividend innovations) by using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and projections. In this VAR construction, there is an error correction mechanism through which stock prices converge to their long-run equilibrium, which also contain the stated stochastic non-fundamental trend as well as fundamental trend. The estimation and test results using yearly data from the Korea (1976-2012) indicated that fluctuations in stock prices during that period can be explained mainly not by the stochastic non-fundamental trend but by the dividend trend. However, during some periods like after Seoul Olympic Games, we may observe the non-fundamental trend affected to the stock price variation.

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EMQT : A Study on Enhanced M-ary Query Tree Algorithm for Sequential Tag IDs (연속적인 태그 ID들을 위한 M-ary 쿼리 트리 알고리즘의 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Dongmin;Shin, Jongmin
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.38B no.6
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2013
  • One of the most challenging issues in radio frequency identification (RFID) and near field communications (NFC) is to correctly and quickly recognize a number of tag IDs in the reader's field. Unlike the probabilistic anti-collision schemes, a query tree based protocol guarantees to identify all the tags, where the distribution of tag IDs is assumed to be uniform. However, in real implements, the prefix of tag ID is uniquely assigned by the EPCglobal and the remaining part is sequentially given by a company or manufacturer. In this paper, we propose an enhanced M-ary query tree protocol (EMQT), which effectively reduces unnecessary query-response cycles between similar tag IDs using m-bit arbitration and tag expectation. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the EMQT significantly outperforms other schemes in terms of identification time, identification efficiency and communications overhead.

Proposal of the Modified Management Criteria Value in Earth Retaining Structure using Measured Data (계측자료를 이용한 흙막이 구조물의 수정된 관리기준치 제안)

  • Kim, Jueng-Kyu;Park, Heung-Gyu;Nam, Jin-Won
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2016
  • The absolute value management method is widely used in the most of the earth retaining construction, which evaluates the safety by comparing measurement result and management criteria. Therefore, the management criteria is the standard to evaluate the safety of the site, and in other words, the criteria is a direct factor of the evaluation. That means that the safety of the site can not be acquired if the management criteria is not proper, even though the measurement system is perfectly set. However, many of field technicians do not have rely on the current management criteria, and they even recognize the necessity of the revision. Therefore, in this study, the necessity of the revision was studied. Also, the optimum criteria selection and the application were performed based on the test results of earth retaining deflection and probabilistic theory. The absolute value management method was used for this study. The details are tabulated.