• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.201-210
• /
• 2008

The government employment statistics show the close comovement of the whole domestic unemployment rate with the youth unemployment rate for the past 10 years, implying the dominant influence of the unemployment of the youth age. This study investigates the structure of the short-run variation and the process of the long-run adjustment in the unemployment rates of the youth and middle ages by formulating the dynamic equation system. The estimation result consistently reflects the vulnerability of the youth class in the aggravation of the employment condition. The effect of exogenous changes is found to be persistent in the unemployment rates of both ages, which appear to have similar structures of the long-run time path. However, the youth unemployment rate turns out to have a relatively long adjustment process to the long-run equilibrium.

• Economic Analysis
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.58-108
• /
• 2019

This paper analyzes the determining factors in the unemployment rate among young people in their 20s by studying data from 30 OECD countries between 2000 and 2017. It identifies reasons why Korea has a higher youth unemployment rate than Japan, and assesses what implications Japan's youth unemployment measures could have on Korea. The study highlights the variables that have meaningful impacts on youth unemployment. They include the unemployment rate among the working-age population, the percentage of each age bracket in the overall population, the GDP growth rate, the percentage of wage laborers in each age group, the percentage of elderly people, and the percentage of part-time workers. This paper also finds that a decline in the youth population, especially among people in their 20s, does not help to address the issue of youth unemployment. Secondly, this paper explains the additional factors behind Korea's higher youth unemployment rates. One is Korea's disadvantageous employment environment, compared to that in Japan, in terms of wage earnings. Other factors include the existence of fewer decent corporate jobs than in Japan, and wide disparities in wages between large and small corporate jobs. Therefore, while making efforts to resolve long-term and structural problems, it is necessary to actively promote policy measures to solve short-term mismatch problems of youth employment by referring to Japanese policy examples.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
• /
• v.56 no.3
• /
• pp.159-181
• /
• 2004

This study examines the realities and causes of youth and new college graduate unemployment, and seeks some assignments for mitigating youth and new college graduate unemployment. An analysis of the realities and causes of youth and new college graduate unemployment is summarized as follows. First, youth unemployment rate, which rapidly increased after the IMF economic crisis, slowly decreased after 2000, but was still somewhat higher in 2002 than that before the IMF. Second, new college graduate unemployment rate, which rapidly increased after the IMF economic crisis, slowly decreased after 2000 and became a similar level to that before the IMF economic crisis, but the number of the unemployed new college graduates highly increased after the IMF. Third, an analysis of the causes of youth unemployment shows that economic growth and the employment elasticity of economic growth negatively affect the unemployment rate, and the rate of entrance into colleges positively affects the unemployment rate. Fourth, an analysis of the causes of new college graduate unemployment demonstrates that economic growth and the employment elasticity of economic growth negatively affect the unemployment rate, and the increase rate of new college graduates, the college graduate/youth population ratio, and the time trend positively affect the unemployment rate. These results suggest several implications for mitigating the unemployment rate of the youth and new college graduates. First, in order to increase labor demand, emphasis must be placed on preparing economic conditions which can raise economic growth rate and on fostering industries and occupations which have high employment elasticity. Second, in the aspect of labor supply, it is necessary to adjust the number of new college graduates corresponding to labor demands in industries. Third, in order to redress the mismatch between the demand and the supply of the youth labor market, attention should be paid to remedying educational systems such as the activation of vocational education and training in middle and high schools and the reformation of college education to match the education and training provided in colleges and the skills requirements of the world of work, and preparing a unified program to support the youth unemployed systematically and synthetically.

• Digital Contents
• /
• no.1 s.116
• /
• pp.72-73
• /
• 2003

통계청이 발표한 '10월 고용동향' 자료에 의하면 10월 국내 실업률은 2.6%, 총 실업자수는 60만5000명으로 조사됐다. 특히 20~30대의 청년실업률은 계속 증가해 모두 40만9000명으로 전체 실업자의 67.6%나 차지하고 있어 그 심각성이 더하다. 더욱 심각한 것은 대졸 이상의 고학력 실업률이 계속 증가하고 있는 것이다. 1998년 IMF라는 미증유의 외환위기를 겪으면서 평생직장 개념이 사라졌다. 스스로 실력을 키워 몸값을 올리지 않으면 살아남기 힘든 무한경쟁시대가 도래했다.

• Economic Analysis
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.96-131
• /
• 2019

Initially entering into the job market during hard times with unfavorable market institutions has a persistent, negative effect on young workers' subsequent employment. This paper analyzes hysteresis in youth unemployment by using a composite fixed-effect panel data model. Data sets for the age-cohort unemployment rate and for labor market institutions are constructed from OECD statistics from 21 advanced economies, including Korea, from 1985 to 2017, and are then readjusted to match with the peculiarities of the Korean market. In Korea, with a less-aggressive stance on active labor market policy spending, a male worker who experiences a one percentage point higher youth unemployment rate when he was 20- to 29-years-old has a 0.146 percentage point higher unemployment rate at the ages of 30-to 34-years-old and a 0.035 percentage point higher unemployment rate at the age of 35- to 39-years-old. These figures are larger than those in most countries that have more aggressive spending schemes. These findings point out that hysteresis in the Korean labor market can be mitigated by expanding active labor market policy spending more aggressively and more effectively.

• The Journal of Korean Institute for Practical Engineering Education
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.93-98
• /
• 2012

The ratio of youth unemployment is very high compared to that of total unemployment in Korea. The youth unemployment is especially severe problem because of hindering the accumulation of human capital which is an economic growth driving factor, and switching the youth to economically inactive population rapidly. So Korea government has tried to perform various polices to solve the youth unemployment. In this paper, the states and the characteristics of the company oriented education program among the countermeasure of youth unemployment in Korea, including Job Experience Program of the Youth, Youth Job System, Youth Internship System and Contract Based Department Program are investigated. And the problems of the company oriented education program are analyzed and an improved education program(M-to-M Model) is proposed.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.17 no.9
• /
• pp.135-145
• /
• 2019

Prolonged recession has caused the youth unemployment rate in Korea to remain at a high level of approximately 10% for years. Recently, the number of unemployed Koreans in their 30s and 40s has shown an upward trend. To expand the government's employment promotion and unemployment benefits from youth-centered policies to diverse age groups, including people in their 30s and 40s, prediction models for different age groups are required. Thus, we aimed to develop unemployment prediction models for specific age groups (30s and 40s) using available unemployment rates provided by Statistics Korea and Google search queries related to them. We first estimated multiple linear regressions (Model 1) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average approach with relevant unemployment rates. Then, we introduced Google search queries to obtain improved models (Model 2). For both groups, consequently, Model 2 additionally using web queries outperformed Model 1 during training and predictive periods. This result indicates that a web search query is still significant to improve the unemployment predictive models for Koreans. For practical application, this study needs to be furthered but will contribute to obtaining age-wise unemployment predictions.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.35-43
• /
• 2015

Regional comparative analysis for the variability of young man's employment indexes is important to unemployment or employment policy data of central and local government. Through the result of comparative analysis, central and local government can use differentiated policies for the regions and keep the efficiency for the application of detailed policy. In this study, based on economically active population survey data which consider economically active population rate, employment population rate and unemployment rate as typical employment indexes of young man, we analyzed the variability of these indexes by metropolitan cities and province regions using coefficient of variation. Also we proposed the largest index in variability of three employment indexes, and proposed the city and province region with the largest variability for each employment index.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.47-96
• /
• 1997

실업률은 실업의 빈도와 실업기간의 복합체로 결정된다. 따라서 동일한 실업률하에서도 다수의 실업자가 단기실업을 경험할 수 있는 반면, 소수의 실업자가 장기의 실업을 경험할 수도 있다. 실업의 경제비용이란 측면에서 볼 때, 전자의 실업은 부문별 수요변화에 따라 신속한 인력 재배치가 진행됨을 의미하는 반면, 후자의 실업은 구조적인 인력 수급 불균형을 반영하고 있어 높은 경제비용을 수반할 가능성이 높다. 본 논문은 우리나라의 경우 실업률의 지속적인 하락에도 불구하고 1990년대에 들어 실업기간이 장기화되고 있음을 보이고 있다. 이러한 실업 장기화 현상은 노동공급 측면에서 비교적 경제활동이 낮았던 저학력 및 청년, 그리고 여성 근로자층의 구직활동이 적극화된 점과, 노동수요 측면에서는 수요의 고학력화에 따른 장년층 및 저학력 실업자의 구직난을 반영하고 있는 것으로 평가된다. 이러한 결과는 현 경제위기에서 많은 장기실업자가 발생할 가능성이 높음을 시사하고 있어 실직자 지원의 효율적 확대와 직업훈련 효율성 제고의 필요성이 높다고 사료된다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.16 no.8
• /
• pp.169-179
• /
• 2018

Recently, web search query information has been applied in advanced predictive model research. Google dominates the global web search market in the Korean market; however, Naver possesses a dominant market share. Based on this characteristic, this study intends to compare the utility of the Korean web search query information of Google and Naver using predictive models. Therefore, this study develops three time-series predictive models to estimate the youth unemployment rate in Korea using the ARIMA model. Model 1 only used the youth unemployment rate in Korea, whereas Models 2 and 3 added the Korean web search query information of Naver and Google, respectively, to Model 1. Compared to the predictability of the models during the training period, Models 2 and 3 showed better fit compared with Model 1. Models 2 and 3 correlated different query information. During predictive periods 1 (continuous with the training period) and 2 (discontinuous with the training period), Model 3 showed the best performance. During predictive period 2, only Model 3 exhibited a significant prediction result. This comparative study contributes to a general understanding of the usefulness of Korean web query information using the Naver and Google search engines.