• Title/Summary/Keyword: 자기회귀모델

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Time Series Prediction of Dynamic Response of a Free-standing Riser using Quadratic Volterra Model (Quadratic Volterra 모델을 이용한 자유지지 라이저의 동적 응답 시계열 예측)

  • Kim, Yooil
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.274-282
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    • 2014
  • Time series of the dynamic response of a slender marine structure was predicted using quadratic Volterra series. The wave-structure interaction system was identified using the NARX(Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input) technique, and the network parameters were determined through the supervised training with the prepared datasets. The dataset used for the network training was obtained by carrying out the nonlinear finite element analysis on the freely standing riser under random ocean waves of white noise. The nonlinearities involved in the analysis were both large deformation of the structure under consideration and the quadratic term of relative velocity between the water particle and structure in Morison formula. The linear and quadratic frequency response functions of the given system were extracted using the multi-tone harmonic probing method and the time series of response of the structure was predicted using the quadratic Volterra series. In order to check the applicability of the method, the response of structure under the realistic ocean wave environment with given significant wave height and modal period was predicted and compared with the nonlinear time domain simulation results. It turned out that the predicted time series of the response of structure with quadratic Volterra series successfully captures the slowly varying response with reasonably good accuracy. It is expected that the method can be used in predicting the response of the slender offshore structure exposed to the Morison type load without relying on the computationally expensive time domain analysis, especially for the screening purpose.

Time Series Analysis on the Endogeneity between Quality of Internet Banking System and Business Performances of Banks (인터넷뱅킹시스템의 품질과 은행의 영업성과 간 내생성에 대한 시계열 분석)

  • Shim, Seonyoung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.169-193
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates time series data on internet banking systems and business performances for 5 large-scale banks : Kookmin, Woori, Hana, City, Shinhan. These banks have the common features that they merged with other banks around 2000, hence they experienced massive IS integration between banks. This study adopted VAR and VECM for identifying Granger causality between the quality of internet banking systems and the performances of banks(operating revenue and cost). The main results are as follows. First, internet banking system impacts positively on the revenues as well as costs of banks. Second, the improvement of internet banking system is instigated by cost part more than revenue part. Hence, the results imply that banks tries to reduce operating costs via internet banking systems, however the systems rather increased the costs of banks, although the systems increased operating revenues of banks too.

Factors Influencing of Colorectal Cancer Screening Behavior (대장암 조기검진행위와 영향요인)

  • Lee, Ji Sun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.179-186
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    • 2019
  • This study was to investigate the factors influencing colorectal cancer(CRC) screening behavior using the health belief model(HBM). It was a descriptive cross-sectional survey. A total of 148 adults aged 50 or older participants were surveyed using structured questionnaires including general characteristics,, health beliefs, and behavioral variables. The data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, t-test, chi-square test and multiple logistic regression using SPSS/WIN 25.0 program. The significant factors influecing CRC screening behavior were perceived sensitivity, spousal experience of CRC screening and family history. Therefore, in order to improve the CRC screening rate, it is necessary to increase the perceived sensitivity through systematic education about the importance of early CRC screening. In addition, it is necessary to assess the spousal screening experience and the family history of subjects and to develop the education program using the partnership of the couple.

Prediction of Covid-19 confirmed number of cases using SARIMA model (SARIMA모형을 이용한 코로나19 확진자수 예측)

  • Kim, Jae-Ho;Kim, Jang-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.58-63
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    • 2022
  • The daily number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) ranges between 1,000 and 2,000. Despite higher vaccination rates, the number of confirmed cases continues to increase. The Mu variant of COVID-19 reported in some countries by WHO has been identified in Korea. In this study, we predicted the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Korea using the SARIMA for the Covid-19 prevention strategy. Trends and seasonality were observed in the data, and the ADF Test and KPSS Test was used accordingly. Order determination of the SARIMA(p,d,q)(P, D, Q, S) model helped in extracting the values of p, d, q, P, D, and Q parameters. After deducing the p and q parameters using ACF and PACF, the data were transformed and schematized into stationary forms through difference, log transformation, and seasonality removal. If seasonality appears, first determine S, then SARIMA P, D, Q, and finally determine ARIMA p, d, q using ACF and PACF for the order excluding seasonality.

Examining the Formation of Entrepreneurial Activities through Cognitive Approach (기업가적 활동 형성에 미치는 영향요인: 인지론적 접근)

  • Lee, Chaewon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2017
  • There have been questions how entrepreneurs think, act and why individuals become entrepreneurs. The trait-based explanation of entrepreneurial activities has been main stream. However, the trait-based theory has been criticized because it assumes that entrepreneurial traits are inherited, stable and enduring over time. This research accepts the cognitive theory to see how entrepreneurs learn or accept others' values, how entrepreneurial perceptions of opportunity impact entrepreneurial actions and how individuals acquire the social legitimation of the formation of entrepreneurial activities. In order to capture the attitudes, activities and motivations of people who are involved in entrepreneurial activities, the author uses the GEM Korea 2016 data. The data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor(GEM) has been well known for the data to capture individuals early-stage entrepreneurial activities. This paper used the sample from the APS(Adult Population Survey) of the GEM which was completed by a representative sample of two thousand adults in Korea by the qualified survey vendor, with strict procedures and oversight by the GEM central data team. The hypotheses are tested with logit regression analysis to estimate the probability of the influence of perceptual variables such as individual perception in social learning, the opportunity recognition in the environment, and social legitimation in the entrepreneurial activities. Based on the results, individuals tend to have high entrepreneurial activities if individuals have high self-efficacy. Also, the existence of role models around the entrepreneurs encourages the individuals involve in entrepreneurial activities more however the perception of opportunity in the environment is not strongly associated with entrepreneurial activities. The media exposure of successful entrepreneurs is more important than others' perception of entrepreneurs on the desirable career option or respect from communities. This paper can contribute to the cognitive processes, particular perception about oneself, as well as perception which is impacted by a community or a society.

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Effects of Depression, Expectations Regarding Aging on the Health Promoting Lifestyle among Health Checkup Examinee (건강검진 수검자의 노화에 대한 기대, 우울이 건강증진 생활양식에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Soojeong;Park, Suin;Kim, Hyunlye
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.509-519
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    • 2018
  • This is a correlational study to investigate the degree of expectation regarding aging, depression and health promotion lifestyle and to identify the factors influencing health promotion lifestyle among health checkup examinee. The subjects of the study were 143 health checkup examinee who visited the M medical center located in G Metropolitan city. Data were collected from July 5 to 21, 2016 using the structured questionnaire of self-report form. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson's correlation, and hierarchical regression. As a result, health promoting lifestyle were correlated with expectation regarding aging positively, and with depression negatively. The factors influencing the health promotion lifestyle were education level, perceived health status, time to move to health care facilities, expectation regarding aging, and depression. With controlled general characteristics, the level of health promotion lifestyle was better explained by the addition of the independent variables of expectation regarding aging, and depression, and the explanatory power of the final model was calculated as 27.0%. Therefore, in order to improve health-promoting lifestyle, it is necessary to consider cognitive factors (knowledge, expectation regarding aging) and psychological factor (depression) besides physical approach.

A Study on the Relationship between Social Media ESG Sentiment and Firm Performance (소셜미디어의 ESG 감성과 기업성과에 관한 연구)

  • Sujin Park;Sang-Yong Tom Lee
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.317-340
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    • 2023
  • In a business context, ESG is defined as the use of environmental, social, and governance factors to assess a firm's progress in terms of sustainability. Social media has enabled the public to actively share firms' good and/or bad deeds, increasing public interest in ESG management. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association of firm performances with the respective sentiments towards each of environmental, social, and governance activities, as well as comprehensive ESG sentiments, which encompass all environmental, social, and governance sentiments. This study used panel regression models to examine the relationship between social media ESG sentiment and the Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) of 143 companies listed on the KOSPI 200. We collected data from 2018 to 2021, including sentiment data from a variety of social media channels, such as online communities, Instagram, blogs, Twitter, and other news. The results indicated that firm performance is significantly related to respective ESG and comprehensive ESG sentiments. This study has several implications. By using data from various social media channels, it presents an unbiased view of public ESG sentiment, rather than relying on ESG ratings, which may be influenced by rating agencies. Furthermore, the findings can be used to help firms determine the direction of their ESG management. Therefore, this study provides theoretical and practical insights for researchers and firms interested in ESG management.

Therapeutic compliance and its related factors in pediatrics patients (소아 환자의 치료 순응도 및 이에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Park, Ki Soo;Kam, Sin;Kim, Heung Sik;Lee, Jeong Kwon;Hwang, Jin-Bok
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.584-596
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : This study was conducted to investigate treatment compliance and related factors in pediatric patients. Methods : Three hundred and fifty-five patients diagnosed with various acute diseases at a teaching hospital or clinic in October 2003 were enrolled. Data were analyzed using the Health Belief Model, which includes items on self-efficacy and family assistance. Results : The study found that 62.9% of pediatric patients adhered faithfully to agreed-upon hospital revisits, 41.6% complied with dose timings instructions, 65.8% precisely took medication, and 27.2% complied with all of these requirements. According to ${\chi}^2$ test analysis, the factors found to be related to therapeutic compliance (the taking of medicines requested) were; susceptibility, severity, benefit, barriers, mother's self-efficacy, and family assistance (P<.05). Multiple logistic analysis and path analysis showed that susceptibility, severity, barriers, and mother's self-efficacy were related to therapeutic compliance (P<.05). Moreover, mother's self-efficacy was identified as the most important factor. Conclusion : To improve therapeutic compliance among pediatric patients, parental education is necessary, and a health care professional must take a thorough history of how the medication was taken before it is assumed that treatment failure is attributable to the medication prescribed. Furthermore, the type of device recommended for dosing should be determined by clinicians. In addition, it is important that pediatric medications be discussed in relation to their palatability and internal acceptability.

Measurement of the Plane Wave Reflection Coefficient for the Saturated Granular Medium in the Water Tank and Comparison to Predictions by the Biot Theory (수조에서 입자 매질의 평면파 반사계수 측정과 Biot 이론에 의한 예측)

  • Lee Keun-Hwa
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.246-256
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    • 2006
  • The plane wave reflection coefficient is an acoustic property containing all the information concerning the ocean bottom and can be used as an input parameter to various acoustic propagation models. In this paper, we measure the plane wave reflection coefficient, the sound speed, thd the attenuation for saturated granular medium in the water tank. Three kinds of glass beads and natural sand are used as the granular medium. The reflection experiment is performed with the sinusoidal tone bursts of 100 kHz at incident angles from 28 to 53 degrees, and the sound speed and attenuation experiment are performed also with the same signal. From the measured reflection signal, the reflection coefficient is calculated with the self calibration method and the experimental uncertainties are discussed. The sound speed and the attenuation measurements are used for the estimation of the porosity and permeability, the main Biot parameters. The estimated values are compared to the directly measured values and used as input values to the Biot theory in order to calculate the theoretical reflection coefficient. Finally, the reflection coefficient predicted by Biot theory is compared to the measured reflection coefficient and their characteristics are discussed.

A Study on the Statistical GIS for Regional Analysis (지역분석을 위한 웹 기반 통계GIS 연구)

  • 박기호;이양원
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.239-261
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    • 2001
  • A large suite of official statistical data sets has been compiled for geographical units under the national directives, and it is the quantitative regional analysis procedures that could add values to them. This paper reports our attempts at prototyping a statistical GIS which is capable of serving over the Web a variety of regional analysis routines as well as value-added statistics and maps. A pilot database of some major statistical data was ingested for the city of Seoul. The baseline subset of regional analysis methods of practical usage was selected and accommodated into the business logic of the target system, which ranges from descriptive statistics, regional structure/inequality measures, spatial ANOVA, spatial (auto) correlation to regression and residual analysis. The leading-edge information technologies including the application server were adopted in the system design and implementation so that the database, analysis modules and analytic mapping components may cooperate seamlessly behind the Web front-end. The prototyped system supports tables, maps, and files of downloadable format for input and output of the analyses. One of the most salient features of out proposed system is that both the database and analysis modules are extensible via the bi-directional interface for end users; The system provides users with operators and parsers for algebraic formulae such that the stored statistical variables may be transformed and combined into the newly-derived set of variables. This functionality eventually leads to on-the-fly fabrication of user-defined regional analysis algorithms. The stored dataset may also be temporarily augmented by user-uploaded dataset; The extension of this form, in essence, results in a virtual database which awaits for users commands as usual. An initial evaluation of the proposed system confirms that the issues involving the usage and dissemination of information can be addressed with success.

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