• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인지 불확실성

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A Regional Changing Point Analysis of Han River Watershed Using a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (계층적 Bayesian 변동점 분석기법을 활용한 한강유역 수문자료 변동성의 지역적 분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Guk;Na, Bong-Kil;Kwon, Young-Jun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.206-206
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    • 2016
  • 최근 기상변동성 증가 및 기후변화로 인해 기존 한반도의 기상패턴과 다른 이상강우 현상이 증가하고 있다. 이러한 변동성 증가는 수자원 계획을 수립하는데 있어 불확실성을 가중시키기고 있다. 이러한 점에서 수문 시계열의 변화양상을 효과적으로 인지할 수 있으며, 유역단위에서 일관된 변화를 평가할 수 있는 변동성 분석 개발이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기존 변동성 분석방법에 계층적 베이지안(Hierarchical Bayesian) 기법을 연계하여 유역단위에서 변동점 해석을 위한 모형을 개발하였다. 한강유역의 30년 이상의 강우 자료를 활용하여 연강우량 자료를 구축하였으며, 본 연구를 통해 개발된 모형의 적합성을 평가하였다. 분석결과, 약 2000년대를 기준으로 강우의 변화 양상을 확인할 수 있었으며, 과거에 비해 강우의 증가 특성을 효과적으로 평가할 수 있었다. 이와 같은 수문기상자료에 대한 변동성 분석은 미래에 발생 가능한 홍수나 가뭄과 같은 사상을 모의함에 있어 효율적으로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Technology Risk and Social Responsibility of Innovation: The Shut-Down Law and On-line Game as a Post Catch-up Innovation (기술위험과 혁신의 사회적 책임 - 셧다운제와 탈추격형 혁신으로서 온라인게임 -)

  • Jung, Byung Kul
    • Informatization Policy
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2013
  • Probability of technology risk is expected to increase as the post catch-up innovation, characterized by high uncertainty and high risk, would dominate in the coming era of post catchup. Social controversy on online game as a post catch-up innovation is still ongoing, though the shutdown law was enacted by the government. Socio-technical vulnerability causing technology risk paradoxically arose from the world top-level ICT infrastructures and has been reinforced by developmentalism. While both the pros and cons of the regulation fail to recognize dilemma objectively, social cost is brought about and accumulated. With recognizing dilemma between technology innovation and risks, we can tackle technology risks and ensure responsible innovation in post catch-up era.

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Studies on the Influence Factors of E-commerce Adoption: The Perspective of Suppliers' E-commerce (전자상거래 도입 영향요인들에 관한 통합적 연구: 공급업체 전자상거래를 중심으로)

  • Choe, Jong-Min
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2013
  • This study empirically investigated inter-relationships among the influence factors on the adoption of e-commerce, which are classified as cause factor (i.e., perceived environmental uncertainty and competition), facilitators (i.e., perceived economic benefits, inter-organizational trust, suppliers' pressure and capability and asset specificity) and support factor (i.e., top management's support and organizational resource capability). The results of regression analyses showed that competition, inter-organizational trust, suppliers' pressure and capability, top management's support, and organizational resource capability have a positive impact on the adoption of e-commerce. In the analyses of inter-relationships among the influence factors, it was found that perceived environmental uncertainty positively influences suppliers' pressure and capability and perceived economic benefits, and competition has a positive impact on asset specificity. It was also observed that perceived economic benefits, inter-organizational trust and suppliers' pressure and capability positively affect top management's support, and inter-organizational trust and suppliers' pressure and capability have a positive impact on organizational resource capability. With mediating regression analyses, it was found that competition has an indirect impact on the adoption of e-commerce through the effect on perceived economic benefits, suppliers' pressure and capability, organizational resource capability and top management's support. The results of mediating regression analyses also showed that suppliers' pressure and capability and perceived economic benefits have indirect effects on the adoption of e-commerce through the effects on top management's support and organizational resource capability. From these results, it is concluded that intense competition causes the activation of facilitators, and the facilitators contribute to both the enhancement of top management support and the creation of organizational resource capability, which are directly linked to the adoption of e-commerce.

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The Influence of Location Uncertainty and Visibility of Targets on the Strength of Attentional Blink (표적 위치의 불확실성과 표적 가시성이 주의깜박거림 강도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Giyeon;Hyun, Joo-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.275-301
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    • 2016
  • Attentional blink (AB) refers to the phenomena where conscious report for a target (T2) subsequent to the first target (T1) in a stream of items under rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) becomes difficult if the T2 follows no later than 500ms after the T1. The present study examined the effect of T1 visibility on T2 AB strength according to the bottleneck account proposing that the amount of allocated resources for T1 memory consolidation determines the strength of AB against T2. In the low-visibility condition, the T1 had a gray color for a low stimulus contrast against the black background whereas had a bright and saturated color in the high-visibility condition. In both visibility conditions, the T1 was also highly distinct from the remaining distractors. A multi-RSVP method was also used for increasing location uncertainty of the targets supposedly consuming on average attentional resources for the targets. Two experiments revealed that AB strength was more intense in the low-visibility than high-visibility condition, and the pattern of difference went more pronounced if T2 visibility was improved. The results indicate that T1 visibility can affect more strongly when attentional resources are relatively lacking for resolving the T1 bottleneck, and support for the bottleneck account proposing that the level of T1's visibility can determine the intensity of the T1 bottleneck.

Recommendation System using Baysian Network in IoT Environment (IoT 환경에서의 베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 추천시스템)

  • Jeong, Soo-Yeon;Kim, Young-Kuk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2016.07a
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    • pp.125-127
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    • 2016
  • 본 논문에서는 IoT(Internet of Things) Device와 스마트폰을 이용하여 사용자의 상황을 인지하고 상황에 적합한 상품을 추천하는 추천시스템을 제안한다. 기존 추천시스템과 다르게 제안하는 IoT 환경에서의 추천시스템은 IoT Device와 스마트폰에서 얻을 수 있는 날씨, 위치, 사용자 정보 등을 파악하여 추천하는 것으로 다양하고 많은 데이터를 제공하므로 정확도를 높일 수 있다. 베이지안 네트워크(BN, Bayesian Network)는 불확실성을 효율적으로 관리하고 정확도와 실시간성을 높일 수 있는 방법으로, 상품의 특징에 따라 종류를 분류하여 추론하고 선호도가 높은 상품의 종류를 추천하는 시스템을 제안한다.

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Team Situation Awareness in VTS

  • Jeong, Gi-Nam;Ha, Yun-Ju;Mun, Jae-Ho;Jeong, So-Hui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2013.06a
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    • pp.432-434
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    • 2013
  • VTS에서 항해하는 선박들은 자율적인 행위자들로서 서로 영향을 끼치며 상호작용하는 한편 서로의 안전에 대해서 상호의존하게 된다. 복잡한 항해상황에서의 불확실성으로 인한 위험을 극복하기 위한 방안으로 최근에 상황자각 이론이 각광을 받고 있다. 하지만 다수의 선박들에 의한 개별적인 상황판단이 제대로 이루어진다 하더라도 동일한 상황에 대한 해석이 서로 다른 경우 사고로 이어질 우려가 높다. 본질적으로 VTS 항해는 인지 과업을 서로 도와가면서 항해하는 시스템이라고 할 수 있다. 본고에서는 팀 상황자각이 공통기반과 동일한 멘탈모델에 의해 성공적으로 이루어지는 과정을 논의하고, 상황자각 실패 사례를 통해 좀 더 구체적으로 살펴보았다. 또한 팀 상황자각과 관련하여 커뮤니케이션의 중요성을 강조하고 VTS 항해 상황에서 항해자들의 팀상황자각을 실질적으로 도울 수 있는 방법으로 '공동운용화면' 시스템을 제안하였다.

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민간기업 연구개발활동의 성과지표 개발

  • 배종태;봉선학
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 1997.12a
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    • pp.45-69
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    • 1997
  • 최근들어 환경변화가 가속화되고 기업의 환경적응성이 중요해짐에 따라 R&D 활동의 평가과정이 학습의 핵심적인 단계로서 새롭게 부각되고 있다. 또한 R&D 활동에서 결과 중심적 접근, 사업부와의 연계 등이 강조되면서 구체적 R&D 성과평가가 연구관리(R&D management)의 중요한 이슈가 되고있다. 그러나 그동안 R&D 성과평가는 R&D 활동 자체가 불확실성을 가지는 특성으로 인하여 체계적 접근이 이루어지지 못하여 왔으며 최근에 들어 R&D 성과평가 부문이 연구관리 및 기술경영분야의 도전적 연구과제가 되고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 R&D 성과평가를 어떻게 접근할 것인지에 대한 접근방법과 성과 지표의 내용, 성과지표의 선택 및 개발절차, 향후 연구과제를 중심으로 제시한다. 본 연구의 세부내용은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 민간기업 연구개발활동의 성과평가에 적용가능한 평가의 분석틀(framework) 및 관점(perspective)을 제시하였다. 기존 평가모형에 대한 문헌고찰을 바탕으로 종합적, 체계적인 평가분석틀을 도출하고, 측정가능한 성과지표군을 제시하였다. 또한 성과지표들을 다양한 기준에 따라 분류하고 각 분류에 따라 적용가능한 성과지표군을 제시하였다. 둘째, 각 기업별 특성을 고려하고 경영전략과의 연계를 명확히 할 수 있는 구체적인 성과지표를 개발하기 위하여 4단계의 R&D 성과 평가지표 개발절차를 도출하였다. 셋째, 향후연구를 위한 성과평가 연구분야의 주요 연구과제들을 5가지로 정리하여 제시하였다.

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Case Study on Key Activities for Effective Supplier Relationship Management(SRM) (효과적인 공급자관계관리(SRM)를 위한 핵심활동 사례연구)

  • Choi, Hye Won
    • Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.813-823
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    • 2019
  • Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) is a strategic partnership activity for an enterprise and is expected to be a significant performance element in the current enterprise environment where uncertainty is growing. Despite the effective SRM allows companies to manage quality and inventory throughout their logistics procurement process with their suppliers and increase the profitability of the company, there is a scarce of theory about supplier relationship management (SRM) and many companies are not aware of the importance of SRM and depend only on simple electronic purchasing methods. Therefore, I analyze the H Company as a case company, which is a large domestic company and has reached 2,500 domestic and overseas suppliers. SRM process and its effects are evaluated as (1) Purchasing strategy division 2) Process division (3) IT infrastructure division. By analyzing SRM as one of the management strategies that bring the overall value of enterprise performance up, and by looking at how domestic large corporations manage their suppliers, I hope that manufacturers with many suppliers will recognize the importance of SRM and build an SRM tailored to their business.

The Effect of Non-cognitive Skill on Employability: Focusing on the Period of Job Search and Tenure (비인지적 요인이 취업에 미치는 영향: 구직기간과 근속기간 분석을 중심으로)

  • Lim, Chan-young
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.3069-3085
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we examined the effect of non-cognitive factors on job tenure and tenure using KLIPS. We examine the internal consistency of the big5 personality trait and of the locus of control, and use the parameterized proportional hazards model. As a result, we confirmed that non-cognitive skill such as personality traits and locus of control affect individual labor market performance. Conscientiousness has shown that the job seeking period of adult job seekers is lengthened, thereby lowering the unemployment rate. It can be understood that high attentiveness under uncertainty can misinterpret information, and that lack of decision restricts escape from unemployment. In the tenure analysis, people with internal locus of control tendency were less likely to leave the job due to longer tenure. Those who have internal control can not only be preferred by the organization but also the internal control tendency seems to be the factor that maintains the long-term job because of the motivation and self-control of their actions.

The effects of Cognitive Flexibility, Self Concept Clarity and Goal Orientation On Adaptive Performance -Focused on mediation effect of resilience- (인지적유연성, 목표지향성, 자기개념명확성이 조직적응에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 회복탄력성을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Young-Bohk;Lee, Na-Young
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.221-245
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the factors leading resilience and to investigate the impact of the adaptive performance. The results are as follows: First, Cognitive Flexibility, Self Concept Clarity and Learning Goal Orientation were proved as antecedents predicted to resilience. Second, Cognitive Flexibility had positive effects on all sub variables on adaptive performance and Prove Goal Orientation had positive effects on some sub variables on adaptive performance such as problem solving, cope with uncertainty, cross cultural adaptability. Self Concept Clarity had positive effects on some sub variables on adaptive performance such as problem solving, handle crisis, cross cultural adaptability. Third, Resilience mediated the relationship between Cognitive Flexibility and Adaptive Performance(problem solving, handle crisis, cross cultural adaptability). The hypotheses of the mediation effect of resilience between Goal Orientation, Self Concept Clarity and Adaptive Performance were rejected. Lastly, this study emphasized and verified the importance of resilience in process of adaptive performance. Future studies should be looked for broad variety of resilience factors.

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