• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.351-362
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• 2012

Weather generators are statistical tools to produce synthetic sequences of daily weather variables. We propose the multisite weather generators with a spatio-temporal correlation based on hierarchical generalized linear models. We develop a computational algorithm to produce future weather variables that use three different types of green-house gases scenarios. We apply the proposed method to a daily time series of precipitation and average temperature for South Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.8
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• pp.709-720
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• 2010

This paper describes the modeling of climate change impact on drought using a conceptual soil moisture model and presents the results of the modeling approach. The future climate series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by CCCma CGCM3-T63 with A2 green house emission scenario, using a daily scaling method that considers changes in the future monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily precipitation distribution. The majority of the modeling results indicate that there will be more frequent drought in Korea in the future.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.1195-1206
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• 2011

This study was conducted to apply LCA (Life cycle assessment) methodology to lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) production systems in Namyang-ju as a case study. Five lettuce growing farms with three different farming systems (two farms with organic farming system, one farm with a system without agricultural chemicals and two farms with conventional farming system) were selected at Namyangju city of Gyeonggi-province in Korea. The input data for LCA were collected by interviewing with the farmers. The system boundary was set at a cropping season without heating and cooling system for reducing uncertainties in data collection and calculation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to find out the effect of type and amount of fertilizer and energy use on GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emission. The results of establishing GTG (Gate-to-Gate) inventory revealed that the quantity of fertilizer and energy input had the largest value in producing 1 kg lettuce, the amount of pesticide input the smallest. The amount of electricity input was the largest in all farms except farm 1 which purchased seedlings from outside. The quantity of direct field emission of $CO_2$, $CH_4$ and $N_2O$ from farm 1 to farm 5 were 6.79E-03 (farm 1), 8.10E-03 (farm 2), 1.82E-02 (farm 3), 7.51E-02 (farm 4) and 1.61E-02 (farm 5) kg $kg^{-1}$ lettuce, respectively. According to the result of LCI analysis focused on GHG, it was observed that $CO_2$ emission was 2.92E-01 (farm 1), 3.76E-01 (farm 2), 4.11E-01 (farm 3), 9.40E-01 (farm 4) and $5.37E-01kg\;CO_2\;kg^{-1}\;lettuce$ (farm 5), respectively. Carbon dioxide contribute to the most GHG emission. Carbon dioxide was mainly emitted in the process of energy production, which occupied 67~91% of $CO_2$ emission from every production process from 5 farms. Due to higher proportion of $CO_2$ emission from production of compound fertilizer in conventional crop system, conventional crop system had lower proportion of $CO_2$ emission from energy production than organic crop system did. With increasing inorganic fertilizer input, the process of lettuce cultivation covered higher proportion in $N_2O$ emission. Therefore, farms 1 and 2 covered 87% of total $N_2O$ emission; and farm 3 covered 64%. The carbon footprints from farm 1 to farm 5 were 3.40E-01 (farm 1), 4.31E-01 (farm 2), 5.32E-01 (farm 3), 1.08E+00 (farm 4) and 6.14E-01 (farm 5) kg $CO_2$-eq. $kg^{-1}$ lettuce, respectively. Results of sensitivity analysis revealed the soybean meal was the most sensitive among 4 types of fertilizer. The value of compound fertilizer was the least sensitive among every fertilizer imput. Electricity showed the largest sensitivity on $CO_2$ emission. However, the value of $N_2O$ variation was almost zero.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.65-74
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• 2016

This study mainly focuses on urban regeneration project as a countermeasure to resolve climate change issues by analyzing the carbon-reduction effect of Jeonju test-bed cases. First, an urban regeneration project is designed for city, Jeonju by analyzing its environmental problems and potential improvement. Then, carbon emission and reduction amounts are evaluated for different businesses and scenarios. Carbon emission sources are classified according to a standard suggested by IPCC, and the emissions are calculated by various standard methods. The result shows that carbon emission amount in Jeonju test-bed is 102,149 tCO2eq. The fact that 70% of the emission from energy sector originates from buildings implies that urban regeneration projects can concentrate on building portions to effectively reduce carbon emission. It is also projected carbon emission will decrease by 3,826tCo2eq in 2020 compared to 2011, reduction mainly based on overall population and industry shrinkage. When urban regeneration projects are applied to 5 urban sectors (urban environment, land use, green transportation, low carbon energy, and green buildings) total of 10,628tCO2eq is reduced and 4,857tCO2 (=15.47%) when only applied to the green building sector. Moreover, different carbon reduction scenarios are set up to meet each goal of different sectors. The result shows that scenario A, B, and C each has 5%, 11%, and 15% of carbon reduction, respectively. It is recommended to apply scenario B to achieve 11% reduction goal in a long term. Therefore, this research can be a valuable guideline for planning future urban regeneration projects and relative policies by analyzing the present urban issues and suggesting improvement directions.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.427-430
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• 2013

Recently, climate change scenarios were substituted by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). Using the RCP scenario, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) produced new climate change scenarios. Further, the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) of Korea produced new climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula. In this study, emergence time of small brown planthopper (SBPH), Laodelphax striatellus and the number of generations a year were estimated during climatic normal year (1981-2010) with previous studies and they were predicted during 2050s (2045-2054) and 2090s (2085-2094) by means of RCP8.5 climate change scenario. In comparison with $176.0{\pm}0.97$ Julian data in the climatic normal year, the emergence time of overwintering SBPH was predicted to be $13.2{\pm}0.18$ days ($162.8{\pm}0.91$ Julian date) earlier in 2050s and $32.1{\pm}0.61$ days ($143.9{\pm}1.08$ Julian date) earlier in 2090s. The SBPH was expected to produce an additional $2.0{\pm}0.02$ generations in 2050s and $5.2{\pm}0.06$ generations in 2090s.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.55-55
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• 2011

기후변화는 지구 온난화와 같은 인위적인 변화와 기후 자체의 자연적인 변동성에 기인하고 있으며 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 물관리 분야에도 영향을 받고 있다. 이러한 기후변화의 영향은 가용 수자원량의 예측과 이를 관리하는 측면의 불확실성을 증가 시키고 있으며 미래 물관리가 더욱 어려울 것으로 전망되고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 대응한 수자원의 종합적인 관리 차원에서 시공간적 물수급 불균형 해소를 위한 방법론을 제시하고자 유역 물관리 모형인 KModSim을 이용하여 낙동강유역을 대상으로 수자원 네트워크를 구축하였다. 유역의 자연유량을 산정하기 위하여 SWAT 모형을 이용하였으며, 현실적으로 유역의 물관리 문제에 접근하기 위해서 낙동강 유역의 수리시설물, 생 공용수 및 농업용수, 댐용수 및 하천수 점용허가 등의 수리권 자료에 근거하여 KModSim을 구축하였다. 미래 기후변화 시나리오(온실가스 배출이 현 수준에서 지속될 것으로 가정한 균형적 발전 시나리오인 A1B 사용)를 적용하였으며 현재(1980~2009년)와 미래(2011~2100년)를 각각 30년씩 구분하여 기후변화에 대한 생활 공업 농업용수의 수요량 변화, 하천유지용수의 공급 변화, 다목적 댐 모의 운영 결과를 검토하였다. 낙동강 유역의 상류 다목적댐의 용수공급 능력은 2040년 초반부터 저류량이 감소 등 물공급에 심한 영향을 받을 것으로 전망되었다. 이와 같은 기후변화의 영향은 수요량에 대응하는 저수지의 공급능력에 영향을 주게 되어 물공급 시설의 운영에 어려움이 있을 것으로 전망되었다. 농업용수에 대한 기후변화의 영향평가 결과 또한 2041년부터 2070년의 기간에 부족이 발생하는 것으로 모의되었다. 생활과 공업용수의 물공급은 기존의 물공급 시설 투자 덕분으로 기후변화의 영향이 두드러지지 않은 것으로 나타났으나 일부 지역은 기후변화에 영향을 고려하지 않더라도 취약한 것으로 모의 되었다. 하천유지유량의 경우 지류가 본류에 비해 하천유지유량의 확보가 어려운 것으로 나타났지만 양적으로는 본류가 부족량이 더 많은 것으로 모의되었다.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.49-59
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• 2023

The rapid advance of technology has accelerated global warming. As 50.4 percent of South Korea's population is concentrated in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, which has become a considerable emitter of greenhouse gases, the city's average temperature is expected to increase more rapidly than in other areas in the country. A rise in the average temperature would affect everyday life and urban ecology; thus, appropriate measures to cope with the forthcoming disaster are in need. This study analyzed the changes in plant phenological phases from the past to the present based on temperatures (average temperature of Feb, Mar, April) observed in seven different weather stations nearthe Seoul Metropolitan Area (Ganghwa, Seoul, Suwon, Yangpyeong, Icheon, Incheon, and Paju) and the first flowering dates of Plum tree (Prunus mume), Korean forsythia (Forsythia koreana), Korean rosebay (Rhododendron mucronulatum), Cherry tree (Prunus serrulate), Peach tree (Prunus persica), and Pear tree (Pyrus serotina). Then, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios were used to predict the future temperature in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and how it will affect plant phenological phases. Furthermore, the study examined the differences in the flowering dates depending on various strategies to mitigate greenhouse gases. The result showed that the rate of plant phenological change had been accelerated since the 1900s.If emission levels remain unchanged, plants will flower from 18 to 29 earlier than they do now in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, which would be faster than in other areas in the country. This is because the FFD (First Flowering Date), is highly related to temperature changes. The Seoul Metropolitan Area, which has been urbanized more rapidly than any other areas, is predicted to become a temperature warming, forcing the FFDs of the area to occur faster than in the rest of the country. Changes in phenology can lead to ecosystem disruption by causing mismatches in species interacting with each otherin an ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary to establish strategies against temperature warming and FFD change due to urbanization.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.60 no.1
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• pp.34-50
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• 2022

Since the Paris climate agreement, reducing greenhouse gases has been the most important global issue. In particular, it is necessary to reduce fossil fuels in the mobility sector, which accounts for a significant portion of total greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we investigated the economic feasibility of green mobility energy supply chains, which supply hydrogen as fuel to hydrogen vehicles based on electricity from renewable energy sources. The design and operation costs were analyzed by evaluating nine scenarios representing various combinatorial possibilities such as renewable energy generation, hydrogen production through water electrolytes, hydrogen storage and hydrogen refueling stations. Simulation calculations were made using Homer Pro, widely used commercial software in the field. The experience gained in this study could be further utilized to construct actual hydrogen energy systems.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.284-301
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• 2023

The changes in rice climatic yield potential (CYP) across the Korean Peninsula are evaluated based on the new climate change scenario produced by the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences with 18 ensemble members at 1 km resolution under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. To overcome the data availability, we utilize solar radiation f or CYP instead of sunshine duration which is relatively uncommon in the climate prediction f ield. The result show that maximum CYP(CYPmax) decreased, and the optimal heading date is progressively delayed under warmer temperature conditions compared to the current climate. This trend is particularly pronounced in the SSP5-85 scenario, indicating faster warming, except for the northeastern mountainous regions of North Korea. This shows the benef its of lower emission scenarios and pursuing more efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, the CYPmax shows a wide range of feasible futures, which shows inherent uncertainties in f uture climate projections and the risks when analyzing a single model or a small number of model results, highlighting the importance of the ensemble approach. The f indings of this study on changes in rice productivity and uncertainties in temperature and solar radiation during the 21st century, based on climate change scenarios, hold value as f undamental information for climate change adaptation efforts.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.653-666
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• 2011

The purposes of this study are to suggest flood vulnerability assessment method on climate change with evaluation of this method over the 5 river basins and to present the uncertainty range of assessment using multi-model ensemble scenarios. In this study, the data related to past historical flood events were collected and flood vulnerability index was calculated. The vulnerability assessment were also performed under current climate system. For future climate change scenario, the 39 climate scenarios are obtained from 3 different emission scenarios and 13 GCMs provided by IPCC DDC and 312 hydrology scenarios from 3 hydrological models and 2~3 potential evapotranspiration computation methods for the climate scenarios. Finally, the spatial and temporal changes of flood vulnerability and the range of uncertainty were performed for future S1 (2010~2039), S2 (2040~2069), S3 (2070~2099) period compared to reference S0 (1971~2000) period. The results of this study shows that vulnerable region's were Han and Sumjin, Youngsan river basins under current climate system. Considering the climate scenarios, variability in Nakdong, Gum and Han river basins are large, but Sumjin river basin had little variability due to low basic-stream ability to adaptation.