• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.127-147
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• 2023

This study is trying to analyze the economic effect of replacing thermal power generation, one of the government's carbon-neutral policies, with new and renewable energy. For this analysis, scenario A is set to replace 100% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario B is set to replace 60% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy. In addition, costs are incurred when replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario 1 is the same cost as the current cost, and scenario 2 is120% higher than the current cost. Therefore, when converting thermal power generation to new and renewable energy, the scenarios are largely organized into four cases. In the case of replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, the production inducement coefficient of thermal power generation decreased from the current level regardless of the scenario. However, the value-added inducement coefficient and the greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are lower than the current level when thermal power is converted to renewable energy by 100%, while the value-added inducement coefficient and greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are higher than the current level. In addition, the greenhouse gas emission induction coefficient of most industries was found to decrease, while the production induction coefficient and the value-added induction coefficient increased. Scenario A seems appropriate because the purpose of the government's policy is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by converting thermal power into new and renewable energy. However, as a result of this, the production inducement coefficient and value-added inducement coefficient of some industries decrease, so the government's support policy is needed to solve this problem

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.10 no.4 s.33
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• pp.11-16
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• 2006

The purposes of this study is to develop a domestic MARKAL(MARKet ALlocation) model with construction of database system to find the technology mix for the electricity generation market in Korea. The MARKAL model is officially used for national energy system optimization in the International Energy Agency(IEA), and the role is becoming more important in relation to analyze the greenhouse gas mitigation potential and to evaluate the technologies. Four scenarios specially emphasized on the greenhouse gas reduction and technology mix of electric generation were applied, each of them covering the analysis periods between 2004 and 2040.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.58-68
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• 2015

A marginal abatement cost analysis has been conducted to analyze the effects of abatement measures on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the Korean residential sector. A bottom-up model using MESSAGE has been developed by defining the energy demand and constructing the reference energy system for the residential sector. A great amount of activity data has also been analyzed. Abatement potentials and related costs of individual abatement measures are investigated. The result from the marginal abatement cost analysis may provide general guidelines and procedures for the establishment of GHG abatement polices.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.187-194
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• 2011

In compliance with an international law about the ocean dumping of the sludge, the proper sewage treatment process which occurs from the wastewater treatment process has been becoming problem. Generally the sewage and the sludge are controlled from anaerobic condition when the sewage is treated and land filled, where the methane$(CH_{4})$ and the nitrous oxide $(N_{2}O)$ from this process are discharged. Because these gases have been known as one of the responsible gases for global warming, the wastewater treatment process is become known as emission sources of green house gases(GHG). This study is to suggest a new approach of estimate and environmental assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and sludge emissions from wastewater treatment processes. It was carried out by calculating the total amounts of GHG emitted from biological wastewater treatment process and the amount of the sludgegenerated from the processes. Four major biological wastewater treatment processes which are Anaerobic/Anoxic/Oxidation$(A_{2}O)$, Bardenpho, Virginia Initiative Plant(VIP), University of Cape Town(UCT)are used and GPS-X software is used to model four processes. Based on the modeling result of four processes, the amounts of GHG emissions and the sludge produced from each process are calculated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) 2006 guideline report. GHG emissions for water as well as sludge treatment processes are calculated for environmental assessment has been done on the scenario of various sludge treatments, such as composting, incineration and reclamation and each scenario is compared by using a unified index of the economic and environmental assessment. It was found that Bardenpho process among these processes shows a best process that can emit minimum amount of GHG with lowest impact on environment and composting emits the minimum amount of GHG for sludge treatment.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.198-202
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• 2009

기후변화는 강수와 기온을 변화시켜 수자원에 지대한 영향을 미칠 것으로 알려져 있다. 따라서 이에 대한 안정적인 수자원 관리를 위해서는 기후변화 영향을 정량적으로 평가하는 것이 필요하다. 기본적으로 기후변화에 대한 수자원의 영향을 연구할 때 '온실가스 배출시나리오, GCMs을 통한 기후모의, 시공간적 편차보정을 위한 상세화, 유출모형 적용을 통한 유출시나리오 생산'의 과정을 거친다. 그러나 유출시나리오를 얻기까지 과정에는 각각 불확실성을 가지고 있기 때문에 최종결과의 불확실성은 각 과정을 거치면서 매우 커진다고 할 수 있다. 다양한 배출시나리오, GCM 결과, 유출모형에 대해 단순평균 혹은 가중치를 주는 multi-model ensemble 기법은 각 경우에 따른 값의 범위를 제시할 수있다는 점 때문에 불확실성 평가에서 주로 이용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 5대강 유역 109개 중권역에 대해 multi-model ensemble을 적용하여 기후변화에 의한 수자원 영향을 평가하였다. 1971년에서 2100년까지 120년 기간에 대해 3개의 온실가스 배출시나리오, 13개의 GCMs 결과들을 수집하여 총 39개의 기후시나리오를 이용하였고, 이를 8개의 유출모형에 적용하여 총 312개의 유출시나리오를 생산하였다. 생산된 유출시나리오를 기준시간(1971${\sim}$2000)에 대한 미래의 세 기간(2020s, 2050s, 2080s)으로 나누어 변화율을 분석한 결과 여름철 유출량과 겨울철 유출량이 증가될것으로 나타났으나 겨울철 유출량 전망은 여름철에 비해 불확실성이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 공간적으로는 한강유역이 위치한 북쪽유역이 남쪽에 비해 불확실성이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 결과적으로 유출의 시공간적 편차에 의해 우리나라 수자원은 홍수피해 증가가 예상되었으며, 월별유출량의 변화로 인해 용수확보와 관리에 어려움이 증가할 것으로 전망되었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.106-106
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• 2011

소수력은 온실가스 배출량이 적은 친환경 청정에너지원이면서 지역의 분산전원에 기여할 수 있는 유용한 자원으로 평가되고 있다. 이러한 여건은 소수력발전 사업이 전력의 smart grid 구축 효과로 인해 가장 큰 효율성을 달성할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 국내 소수력발전은 1500Mw의 부존량을 가진 것으로 평가되고 있으나 계절적 편중으로 인한 가동률 부족, 경제성 부족 등으로 활발한 보급이 이루어지지 않고 있다. 특히 신재생에너지 확대 전략에도 불구하고 지원금 등 경제적 인센티브 부족으로 인해 민간부문의 참여는 상당히 저조하다. 그럼에도 불구하고 수력에너지는 환경친화적이고 잠재성이 큰 신재생에너지로 온실가스 저감과 에너지 확보에 기여할 수 있다. 특히 수력에너지는 민간투자의 어려움이 존재하므로 정부의 장기적인 기술개발투자 및 효율성 확대 정책이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 소수력 확대의 경제 환경적 효과를 평가해보기 위해 연산일반균형모형 (CGE :Computable General Equilibrium Model)을 구축한다. 본 연구는 다음과 같이 수행되었다. 첫째, 수력발전부문과 수도사업을 구분하고 사회회계행렬을 작성하였으며, 전력부문에서 수력발전을 포함한 다단계 생산구조를 가정하였다. 둘째, 일반균형모형 방정식 체계를 작성하고 모형의 파라미터 추정 등 보정(Calibration) 작업을 수행하였다. 셋째, 국가 중기 온실가스저감 시나리오를 적용한 전망을 수행하고 소수력 확대(투자지원) 시나리오를 구축한다. 본 연구는 저감수단으로 탄소세를 부과하였다. 끝으로, 소수력 발전 보급 확대의 경제적, 환경적 파급효과를 계산하였다. 분석결과, 소수력 발전 잠재 성장을 반영한 수력에너지 비중은 약 2020년에 약 4.5% 까지 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이로 인한 온실가스 저감 기여분은 약 3%에 이르는 것으로 계산 되었다. 또한 수도사업과 비에너지 제조업의 산업비중은 증가하였다. 이러한 결과는 소수력 발전 확대가 화석연료 대체를 통한 지속가능한 에너지 수요에 기여하고 지역개발과 물산업 발전 등 경제적 파급효과 등을 유발할 수 있음을 시사한다. 또한 본 연구에서 고려하지 못한 소수력 기술 개발은 에너지 대체 촉진으로 인한 온실가스 저감과 녹색성장에 기여할 것이다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.67-104
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• 2018

In this paper, we compare the spread effects of the carbon tax imposition method using the real business cycle model considering the productivity and energy price shocks. Scenario 1 sets the carbon tax rate that encourages the representative firm to maintain a constant $CO_2$ reduction ratio in accordance with its green house gas reduction targets for each period. Scenario 2 sets the method of imposing the steady state value of the carbon tax rate of Scenario 1 during the analysis period. The impulse response analysis shows that the responses of $CO_2$ emissions to external shocks are relatively sensitive in scenario 2. And simulation results show that the cost of $CO_2$ abatement is more volatile in scenario 1, and $CO_2$ emissions and $CO_2$ stock are more volatile in scenario 2. In particular, the percentage changes in volatility between the two scenarios of $CO_2$ emissions and $CO_2$ stock increase as the green house gas reduction target is harder. When the green house gas reduction target is 60% and over, the percentage changes(absolute value) between the two scenarios exceed the percentage change(absolute value) of the $CO_2$ reduction cost between them.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.29-38
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• 2011

The growing amount of using the fossil fuel is bringing about environmentally, economically serious problems like as global warming. To solve the problems, the international society has begun to decrease greenhouse gases through the international agreement like as the climate change convention. In South of Korea, it was presented practical goal of Green Development try to decrease greenhouse, which is the future 60 years vision. And, it contains the strategies of Green Development and 5th Plan of Green Development. Nowadays, the government accepted the active alternative scenario 3, which is the goal of 4% decrease in greenhouse gases until 2020's, presented by Presidential Committee on Green Growth. This study established the strategies of Transport Demand Management to decrease the greenhouse gases in transportation part, and then we measured the effect of them. As a result, if it takes effect the aggressive strategies annually, it will cut greenhouse gas pollution by 3.1%, which is 7,590,000t$CO_2eq$, in transportation part. So, we can expect that it would be the effective policy tool to achieve the goal of government, which is the Green Development, if it controls the strategies of TDM effectively by the political needs.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.293-303
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• 2016

This study implemented a comparison of SPI characteristics in terms of quantitative and spatial analysis depending on four RCP scenarios. For this purpose, we compared quantitative characteristics of drought using standard precipitation index resulted from daily precipitation data reflecting future green gas concentration scenarios, and spatial distribution field of seasonal drought occurrence frequency and its duration, was analyzed to compare drought trends depending on the RCP scenarios. As a result, we found that SPI time series was quite different from each other and correlation coefficients were lower than 0.08. Depending on the RCP scenarios, spatial distribution results showed different trends in drought severity, frequency, and duration. The biggest reason of the difference is daily precipitation data based on the different greenhouse gas concentrations, but we could not find the effect of the concentration extent on drought occurrence projection. In addition, according to the results from this study, drought analysis results using single RCP scenario may have considerable uncertainty.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.230-238
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• 2009

We study about small gas engine and fuel cell CHP (Combined Heat and Power) as the technologies for energy conservation and $CO_2$ emissions reduction. Korea government plans to use them in near future. This study quantitatively analyzed energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions reduction potential of small CHP instead of existing electric power plant (coal steam, combined cycle and oil steam) using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system) as energy-economic model. Three future scenarios are discussed. In every scenario similar condition for each CHP is used. Alternative scenario I: about 6.34% reduction in $CO_2$ emissions is observed in 2019 due to increase in amount of gas engine CHP and fuel cell CHP while coal use in thermoelectric power plant is almost stagnant. In alternative scenario II: a small 0.8% increase in $CO_2$ emission is observed in 2019 keeping conditions similar to alternative scenario I but using natural gas in combined cycle power plant instead of coal. During alternative scenario II overall $CO_2$ emission reduction is observed in 2019 due to added heat production from CHP. Alternative scenario III: about 0.8% reduction in $CO_2$ emissions is observed in 2019 using similar CHP as AS I and AS II. Here coal and oil are used in thermoelectric power plant but the quantity of oil and coal is almost constant for next decade.