• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측구조

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The Concept of 'Risk' and the Proportionality Review of Infectious Disease Prevention Measures (감염병 팬데믹에서의 '리스크' 개념과 방역조치에 대한 비례성 심사의 구체화 -집합제한조치에 대한 국내외 판결을 중심으로-)

  • You, Kihoon
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-207
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    • 2022
  • As various state restrictions on individual freedom were imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns have been raised that excessive infringements on fundamental rights were indiscriminately permitted based on the public interest of preventing infectious diseases. Therefore, the question of how to set acceptable limits of liberty restrictions on individuals has emerged. However, since the phenomenon of infections spreading to the population is only predicted statistically, how to deal with the risk of the infected individual as a subject of legal analysis has become a problem. In the absence of a theoretical framework of legal analysis of risk, the risk of infected individuals during the pandemic was not analyzed strictly, and proportionality review of infection prevention measures was often only an abstract comparison of the importance of public interest and individual rights. Therefore, this research aims to conduct a theoretical review on how risk can be conceptualized legally in a public health crisis, and to develop a theoretical framework for proportionality review of the risk of liberty-limiting measures during a pandemic. Chapter 2 analyzes the legal philosophical concepts of risk, which are the basis for liberty restrictions during a public health crisis, and applies and extends them to the pandemic. Chapter 3 reviews previous studies related to liberty restriction measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and points out they have a limitation that specific criteria for the proportionality review of public health measures in the pandemic have not been presented. Accordingly, Chapter 3 specifies the methodological framework for proportionality review, referring to the theoretical discussion on risks in Chapter 2. Chapter 4 reviews the legitimacy of gathering restriction orders, applying the theoretical discussion in Chapter 2 and the criteria for proportionality review established in Chapter 3. In particular, Section 4 examines logic of proportionality review in judicial precedents over the ban on gathering restrictions implemented in the COVID-19 pandemic. In analyzing the precedents, the logic of proportionality review in each case is critically reviewed and reconstructed based on the theoretical framework presented in this research.

A fundamental study on the automation of tunnel blasting design using a machine learning model (머신러닝을 이용한 터널발파설계 자동화를 위한 기초연구)

  • Kim, Yangkyun;Lee, Je-Kyum;Lee, Sean Seungwon
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.431-449
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    • 2022
  • As many tunnels generally have been constructed, various experiences and techniques have been accumulated for tunnel design as well as tunnel construction. Hence, there are not a few cases that, for some usual tunnel design works, it is sufficient to perform the design by only modifying or supplementing previous similar design cases unless a tunnel has a unique structure or in geological conditions. In particular, for a tunnel blast design, it is reasonable to refer to previous similar design cases because the blast design in the stage of design is a preliminary design, considering that it is general to perform additional blast design through test blasts prior to the start of tunnel excavation. Meanwhile, entering the industry 4.0 era, artificial intelligence (AI) of which availability is surging across whole industry sector is broadly utilized to tunnel and blasting. For a drill and blast tunnel, AI is mainly applied for the estimation of blast vibration and rock mass classification, etc. however, there are few cases where it is applied to blast pattern design. Thus, this study attempts to automate tunnel blast design by means of machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence. For this, the data related to a blast design was collected from 25 tunnel design reports for learning as well as 2 additional reports for the test, and from which 4 design parameters, i.e., rock mass class, road type and cross sectional area of upper section as well as bench section as input data as well as16 design elements, i.e., blast cut type, specific charge, the number of drill holes, and spacing and burden for each blast hole group, etc. as output. Based on this design data, three machine learning models, i.e., XGBoost, ANN, SVM, were tested and XGBoost was chosen as the best model and the results show a generally similar trend to an actual design when assumed design parameters were input. It is not enough yet to perform the whole blast design using the results from this study, however, it is planned that additional studies will be carried out to make it possible to put it to practical use after collecting more sufficient blast design data and supplementing detailed machine learning processes.

Analysis of Service Factors on the Management Performance of Korea Railroad Corporation - Based on the railroad statistical yearbook data - (한국철도공사 경영성과에 미치는 서비스 요인분석 -철도통계연보 데이터를 대상으로-)

  • Koo, Kyoung-Mo;Seo, Jeong-Tek;Kang, Nak-Jung
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.127-144
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to derive service factors based on the "Rail Statistical Yearbook" data of railroad service providers from 1990 to 2019, and to analyze the effect of the service factors on the operating profit ratio(OPR), a representative management performance variable of railroad transport service providers. In particular, it has academic significance in terms of empirical research to evaluate whether the management innovation of the KoRail has changed in line with the purpose of establishing the corporation by dividing the research period into the first period (1990-2003) and the latter (2004-2019). The contents of this study investigated previous studies on the quality of railway passenger transportation service and analyzed the contents of government presentation data related to the management performance evaluation of the KoRail. As an empirical analysis model, a research model was constructed using OPR as a dependent variable and service factor variables of infrastructure, economy, safety, connectivity, and business diversity as explanatory variables based on the operation and management activity information during the analysis period 30 years. On the results of research analysis, OPR is that the infrastructure factor is improved by structural reform or efficiency improvement. And economic factors are the fact that operating profit ratio improves by reducing costs. The safety factor did not reveal the significant explanatory power of the regression coefficient, but the sign of influence was the same as the prediction. Connectivity factor reveals a influence on differences between first period and latter, but OPR impact direction is changed from negative in before to positive in late. This is an evironment in which connectivity is actually realized in later period. On diversity factor, there is no effect of investment share in subsidiaries and government subsidies on OPR.

A Study on the Development Direction of Medical Image Information System Using Big Data and AI (빅데이터와 AI를 활용한 의료영상 정보 시스템 발전 방향에 대한 연구)

  • Yoo, Se Jong;Han, Seong Soo;Jeon, Mi-Hyang;Han, Man Seok
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.317-322
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    • 2022
  • The rapid development of information technology is also bringing about many changes in the medical environment. In particular, it is leading the rapid change of medical image information systems using big data and artificial intelligence (AI). The prescription delivery system (OCS), which consists of an electronic medical record (EMR) and a medical image storage and transmission system (PACS), has rapidly changed the medical environment from analog to digital. When combined with multiple solutions, PACS represents a new direction for advancement in security, interoperability, efficiency and automation. Among them, the combination with artificial intelligence (AI) using big data that can improve the quality of images is actively progressing. In particular, AI PACS, a system that can assist in reading medical images using deep learning technology, was developed in cooperation with universities and industries and is being used in hospitals. As such, in line with the rapid changes in the medical image information system in the medical environment, structural changes in the medical market and changes in medical policies to cope with them are also necessary. On the other hand, medical image information is based on a digital medical image transmission device (DICOM) format method, and is divided into a tomographic volume image, a volume image, and a cross-sectional image, a two-dimensional image, according to a generation method. In addition, recently, many medical institutions are rushing to introduce the next-generation integrated medical information system by promoting smart hospital services. The next-generation integrated medical information system is built as a solution that integrates EMR, electronic consent, big data, AI, precision medicine, and interworking with external institutions. It aims to realize research. Korea's medical image information system is at a world-class level thanks to advanced IT technology and government policies. In particular, the PACS solution is the only field exporting medical information technology to the world. In this study, along with the analysis of the medical image information system using big data, the current trend was grasped based on the historical background of the introduction of the medical image information system in Korea, and the future development direction was predicted. In the future, based on DICOM big data accumulated over 20 years, we plan to conduct research that can increase the image read rate by using AI and deep learning algorithms.

A Study of Life Safety Index Model based on AHP and Utilization of Service (AHP 기반의 생활안전지수 모델 및 서비스 활용방안 연구)

  • Oh, Hye-Su;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Jeong, Jong-Woon;Jang, Jae-Min;Yang, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.864-881
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims is to provide a total care solution preventing disaster based on Big Data and AI technology and to service safety considered by individual situations and various risk characteristics. The purpose is to suggest a method that customized comprehensive index services to prevent and respond to safety accidents for calculating the living safety index that quantitatively represent individual safety levels in relation to daily life safety. Method: In this study, we use method of mixing AHP(Analysis Hierarchy Process) and Likert Scale that extracted from consensus formation model of the expert group. We organize evaluation items that can evaluate life safety prevention services into risk indicators, vulnerability indicators, and prevention indicators. And We made up AHP hierarchical structure according to the AHP decision methodology and proposed a method to calculate relative weights between evaluation criteria through pairwise comparison of each level item. In addition, in consideration of the expansion of life safety prevention services in the future, the Likert scale is used instead of the AHP pair comparison and the weights between individual services are calculated. Result: We obtain result that is weights for life safety prevention services and reflected them in the individual risk index calculated through the artificial intelligence prediction model of life safety prevention services, so the comprehensive index was calculated. Conclusion: In order to apply the implemented model, a test environment consisting of a life safety prevention service app and platform was built, and the efficacy of the function was evaluated based on the user scenario. Through this, the life safety index presented in this study was confirmed to support the golden time for diagnosis, response and prevention of safety risks by comprehensively indication the user's current safety level.

세계의 유황수급 전망

  • Ceccotti S.P;Messick D.L
    • Proceedings of the Mineralogical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.7-24
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    • 1996
  • '90년대 전반기 중 세계 경제 상황은 정치, 경제 및 환경의 급격한 변화에 따른 불황으로 유황시장에도 심대한 영향을 미치게 되었다. 이와 같은 경기의 후퇴는 다수의 생산자로 하여금 전반적인 시장 상황을 바꿀 수 있는 전략 변경 및 새로운 시장 개발을 촉진시키게 하였다. 최근에 전개되고 있는 극단적인 정치$\cdot$경제적인 변화는 재래시장과 무역균형을 변경시키게 되었다. 개선되는 세계경제에 따른 광범위한 구조조정과 지난 2년간 진행되어온 전반적으로 농업에 유리한 조건에 힘입어 1995년 유황공업은 회복이 시작되어 54.63백만 톤이 생산되었다 국제 유황 무역은 수요와 공급 면에서는 균형을 못 찾고 있다. 1995년 유황생산 중 무역량은 $45\%$에 이르렀다. 유황생산에 영향하는 요소가 변함에 따라 무역의 형태가 변하게 되고 세계 유황 수급 균형에 영향을 주게 되었다. 지난 2년간 있었던 유황생산 회복은 다음 십년간 지속될 것으로 예측된다. 대부분 수요의 증가는 자연가스의 생산을 지배하는 요소에 따라 결정 될 것이다 1986년 이래 유가가 떨어진 후 세계 에너지 수요는 연간 $2.3\%$ 증가하였다. 석유와 가스는 미래 에너지 수요의 증가로 $70\%$이상을 공급하게 될 것이다. 동아시아에서 회수 유황은 원유의 정제로부터 유래된 것으로 가장 신장이 큰 공급원으로 2005년까지 주요유황생산 부분이 될 것이다. 동아시아에서 주요 회수 유황생산국은 일본으로 전체의 $66\%$를 차지한다. 석유 정제로부터 회수 유황생산량은 동아시아에서 증가하고 있다. 유황회수 시설 투자는 일본을 위시하여 한국, 싱가폴 및 태국에서 이루어지고 있으며 이는 점차 증대되는 환경규제에 기인된다. 동아시아 공업국가 예컨대 일본과 한국에서의 유황소비는 인산생산 저조로 정체해 있으나 지난 10년간 여타의 아시아 국가에서의 유황소비는 꾸준히 증가되었다. 이 같은 증가는 앞으로 10년간 계속 될 것으로 추정된다. 이는 유황비료 소비가 4.81백만 톤에서 6.6백만 톤으로 증가될 것으로 예상되고 이는 주로 중국이 내수 인산생산을 증가시키려는 데 기인된다. 더욱이 다가올 10년은 다수의 아시아 국가의 급속한 경제 발전으로 비료 이외의 유황의 소비가 꾸준히 증가 될 것이다. 동아시아는 10.29백만 톤을 생산하고 10.99백만 톤을 소비하여 1995년에는 70만 톤의 유황이 부족하였다. 이와 같은 영향이 계속된다면 동아시아 유황부족은 2005년에는 1.05백만 톤으로 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 그러나 중국에서 황화철에서부터 공급되는 유황함량이 많아 이 지역에서의 원소유황의 진정한 균형에 대해서는 정확하게 평가되지 못한다. 1995년 동아시아에서는 1.3백만 톤의 원소유황을 일본, 캐나다, 미국에서 수입했다. 이들 국가는 앞으로도 이 지역의 주요 공급자가 될 것이다. 황산의 많은 양은 일본에서 이 지역으로 수출되는데 그 양은 1995년 10만톤 이상에 이른다. 더욱이 경제?환경적 이점 때문에 중국이 황화물에서 회수하는 유황대신 원소 유황의 수입을 지속적으로 증가시키고 있어 지역내의 유황 부족이 증가 될 것이다. 이 같은 상황진전으로 앞으로 10년 이내에 2.5백만 톤의 추가시장이 있게 될 것이다. 이 기간내 한국으로서 현재 326,000톤의 부족에서 2005년에는 309,000톤의 과잉으로 유황균형이 변할 수 있는 주요계기가 될 것이다 이 같은 과잉은 회수 유황생산이 1995년 333,000톤에서 2005년 870,000톤으로 $161\%$가 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 동기간 내에 기타 유황생산은 280,000톤에서 320,000톤으로 $14\%$ 증가되는 것으로 추정된다. 그리하여 2005년 한국에서 유황 공급은 1.19백만 톤이고 수요는 881,000톤으로 추정 된다. 미래 한국에서 유황의 또 다른 잠재시장은 식물양분으로서 이다. 인산비료 생산은 유황산업의 골격으로 1995년 세계적으로 인산비료는 유황소비의 53%인 53.60백만 톤을 점유하였다. 작물의 유황결핍 현상은 세계도처에서 나타나고 있어 식물양분으로서 유황시장은 20년전의 시장과 같이 현황을 띠는 시장으로 유황공업이 때를 만나게 될 것이다. 공업국에서 유황의 대기로의 방출억제로 자연 공급량이 감소되고 개발도상국에서 증산으로 유황의 탈취가 증가됨에 따라 유황 부족은 점차 중요한 문제로 확산되고 있다. 세계적으로 $1993\~1994$년간 7.52백만 톤으로 추정되는 유황 부족이 농산물의 수량과 질을 하락시키는 결과를 가져오게 하였다: 이와 같은 현상으로 유황비료의 수요가 증대되었고 산업계는 수요증대에 대응할 기술개발에 노력하게 되었다. 현재의 식량생산과 비료 소비추세가 지속된다면 아시아에서 2000년까지 매년 4.5백만 톤의 유황부족이 있게 될 것이다 이와 같은 유황비료의 부족은 적절한 대책을 취하지 않는 한 2010년에는 6.5백만 톤으로 증가 될 것이다. 동아시아는 경제발전으로 유황비료 장기 잠재시장이 기대되고 새로운 시장으로 $50\%$이상을 점유하게 될 것이다. 서구와 북미에서 유황비료 산업은 이윤 있는 잠재시장으로 인정되고 상업적으로 앞서 있는 시장이다. 점증하는 수요에 대한 대처와 유황비료의 성공은 시장에서 가격에 좌우된다. 실제로 북미와 서구에서 현재의 소매가격은 유황 톤당 $266\~466\$$의 범위에 있다. 인도에서는 비료로서 유황시장은 덜 발달된 단계로서 대표가격은 $120\$$이다. 이 가격 범위로 보아 2010년에 동아시아 시장의 잠재 유황비료 시장은 3.4백만 톤에 이르고 비료공업에서 추가로 얻는 이윤은 408백만 내지 1조5천억$\$$이 될 것이다. 이와 같은 시장이 발전 될 수 있는 것은 계속된 제품개발과 비료산업 시장개척에 달려있다.

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Estimation of the Korean Yield Curve via Bayesian Variable Selection (베이지안 변수선택을 이용한 한국 수익률곡선 추정)

  • Koo, Byungsoo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.84-132
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    • 2020
  • A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.

One-Dimensional Consolidation Simulation of Kaolinte using Geotechnical Online Testing Method (온라인 실험을 이용한 카올리나이트 점토의 일차원 압밀 시뮬레이션)

  • Kwon, Youngcheul
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4C
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    • pp.247-254
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    • 2006
  • Online testing method is one of the numerical experiment methods using experimental information for a numerical analysis directly. The method has an advantage in that analysis can be conducted without using an idealized mechanical model, because mechanical properties are updated from element test for a numerical analysis in real time. The online testing method has mainly been used for the geotechnical seismic engineering, whose major target is sand. A testing method that may be applied to a consolidation problem has recently been developed and laboratory and field verifications have been tried. Although related research thus far has mainly used a method to update average reaction for a numerical analysis by positioning an element tests at the center of a consolidation layer, a weakness that accuracy of the analysis can be impaired as the thickness of the consolidation layer becomes more thicker has been pointed out regarding the method. To clarify the effectiveness and possible analysis scope of the online testing method in relation to the consolidation problem, we need to review the results by applying experiment conditions that may completely exclude such a factor. This research reviewed the results of the online consolidation test in terms of reproduction of the consolidation settlement and the dissipation of excess pore water pressure of a clay specimen by comparing the results of an online consolidation test and a separated-type consolidation test carried out under the same conditions. As a result, the online consolidation test reproduced the change of compressibility according effective stress of clay without a huge contradiction. In terms of the dissipation rate of excess pore water pressure, however, the online consolidation test was a little faster. In conclusion, experiment procedure needs to improve in a direction that hydraulic conductivity can be updated in real time so as to more precisely predict the dissipation of excess pore water pressure. Further research or improvement should be carried out with regard to the consolidation settlement after the end of the dissipation of excess pore water pressure.

Taste Compounds and Antioxidant Properties in Extracts of Angelica keiskei and Oenanthe javanica Juice By-Products According to Extraction Methods (추출 방법에 따른 명일엽과 돌미나리 착즙박의 정미성분 및 항산화 특성)

  • Hyun Jung Lee;Ha Na Ryoo;Hyeon Gyu Lee
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.517-527
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to examine the possibility of upcycling extracts of Angelica keiskei and Oenanthe javanica juice by-products through comparing enzyme extraction (EE) and complex extraction (CE) methods to increase the extraction yield and flavor of materials. A higher extraction yield was obtained for free amino acid content with EE and CE for A. keiskei and O. javanica juice by-products, respectively, and a higher extraction efficiency was achieved with juice by-products than with extracts prepared from raw materials before juice production. The content of major amino acids varied depending on the extraction method used. When used according to the characteristics of the extract, their use as a functional material was confirmed along with improvement in the flavor of the food. Consistently high extraction yields for organic acid and sugar levels were obtained with CE in A. keiskei and O. javanica juice by-products. The DPPH radical scavenging ability and TPC were consistently high with CE in A. keiskei and O. javanica juice by-products; the increase in extracted content was likely because of the reaction between the ethanol used for CE and the phenolic compounds. However, because the antioxidant capacity of the juice by-product extracts was somewhat lower than that of the extracts from raw materials before juice production, the amount used should be reviewed. The TFC was found to be higher in extracts obtained with EE than with CE for A. keiskei juice by-products; however, no significant difference was observed between EE and CE in the O. javanica juice by-products. Through this study, the taste compounds and antioxidant properties of extracts obtained from juice by-products produced after the production of A. keiskei and O. javanica green juice were analyzed, and the availability of high value-added materials was confirmed. Based on these research results, expanding specific R&D for practical use should be explored.

Development and assessment of pre-release discharge technology for response to flood on deteriorated reservoirs dealing with abnormal weather events (이상기후대비 노후저수지 홍수 대응을 위한 사전방류 기술개발 및 평가)

  • Moon, Soojin;Jeong, Changsam;Choi, Byounghan;Kim, Seungwook;Jang, Daewon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.11
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    • pp.775-784
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    • 2023
  • With the increasing trend of extreme rainfall that exceeds the design frequency of man-made structures due to extreme weather, it is necessary to review the safety of agricultural reservoirs designed in the past. However, there are no local government-managed reservoirs (13,685) that can be discharged in an emergency, except for reservoirs over a certain size under the jurisdiction of the Korea Rural Affairs Corporation. In this case, it is important to quickly deploy a mobile siphon to the site for preliminary discharge, and this study evaluated the applicability of a mobile siphon with a diameter of 200 mm, a minimum water level difference of 6 m, 420 (m2/h), and 10,000 (m2/day), which can perform both preliminary and emergency discharge functions, to the Yugum Reservoir in Gyeongju City. The test bed, Yugum Reservoir, is a facility that was completed in 1945 and has been in use for about 78 years. According to the hydrological stability analysis, the lowest height of the current dam crest section is 27.15 (EL.m), which is 0.29m lower than the reviewed flood level of 27.44 (EL.m), indicating that there is a possibility of lunar flow through the embankment, and the headroom is insufficient by 1.72 m, so it was reviewed as not securing hydrological safety. The water level-volume curve was arbitrarily derived because it was difficult to clearly establish the water level-flow relationship curve of the reservoir since the water level-flow measurement was not carried out regularly, and based on the derived curve, the algorithm for operating small and medium-sized old reservoirs was developed to consider the pre-discharge time, the amount of spillway discharge, and to predict the reservoir lunar flow time according to the flood volume by frequency, thereby securing evacuation time in advance and reducing the risk of collapse. Based on one row of 200 mm diameter mobile siphons, the optimal pre-discharge time to secure evacuation time (about 1 hour) while maintaining 80% of the upper limit water level (about 30,000 m2) during a 30-year flood was analyzed to be 12 hours earlier. If the pre-discharge technology utilizing siphons for small and medium-sized old reservoirs and the algorithm for reservoir operation are implemented in advance in case of abnormal weather and the decision-making of managers is supported, it is possible to secure the safety of residents in the risk area of reservoir collapse, resolve the anxiety of residents through the establishment of a support system for evacuating residents, and reduce risk factors by providing risk avoidance measures in the event of a reservoir risk situation.