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The Pattern Analysis of Financial Distress for Non-audited Firms using Data Mining (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 비외감기업의 부실화 유형 분석)

  • Lee, Su Hyun;Park, Jung Min;Lee, Hyoung Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.111-131
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    • 2015
  • There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.

Example of Legislation on the Space Relations of Every Countries in the World and Main Contents of the Space Exploration Promotion Act and Future Task in Korea (세계 각국의 우주관계 입법례와 우리나라 우주 개발진흥법의 주요내용 및 앞으로의 과제)

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.9-43
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    • 2005
  • The Korean government established her first "National Space Program" in 1996, and revised it in 2000 and 2005. As embedded in the National Space Program, Korea aims to become one of the world's top countries in space technology by 2010. All of 13 satellites are planned to be put into orbit as schematized, which include 7 multi-purpose satellites, 4 science satellites and 2 geostationary orbit satellites. The Space Center in Korea is to be built at Woinara-Do, Bongrae-Myon, Koheung-Goon, Junlanam Province on the southern coast of the Korean peninsular. The first phase of the construction of the space center will be finished by 2007 for launch of KSLV-l. This will make Korea be the 13th advanced country in space development having a launching site in the world. The "Space Center" will serve as the infrastructure for the development of space technology and related technology, and plan to launch a low earth orbit satellite in 2007. A second science satellite made in Korea will be launched from the space center by 2007. From 2010, the center will be operated on a commercial basis operating launch facilities for low-to mid-altitude orbit satellites. Since the 'Aircraft Industry Promotion Act' was replaced by the 'Aerospace Industry Development Promotion Acf of 1987, this Act had been amended seven times from 1991 year to 2004. Most of developed countries has been enacted the space law including the public or private items such as an (1)DSA, (2)Russia, (3)the United Kingdom, (4)Germany, (5)France, (6)Canada, (7)Japan, (8)Sweden, (9)Australia, (10)Brazil, (11)Norway, (12)South Africa, (13)Argentina, (14)Chile, (15)Ukrainian etc. As the new Space Exploration Promotion Act was passed by the resolution of the Korean Congress on May 3, 2005, so the Korean government has made the public proclamation the abovementioned Act on May 31, this year. This Act takes effect on December 1, 2005 after elapsing six months from the date of promulgation. The main contents of Space Exploration Promotion Act of 2005 is as the following (1)establishing a basic plan for promoting space exploration, (2)establishment and function of national space committee, (3)procedure and management of domestic and international registration of space objects, (4)licensing of launch by space launch vehicles, (5)lability for damages caused by space accidents and liability insurance, (6) organizing and composition of the space accident investigation committee, (7)Support of non-governmental space exploration project, (8)Requesting Support and Cooperation of Space Exploration, (9)Rescue of Astronauts and Restitution of Space Objects, etc.. In oder to carry out successfully the medium and long basic plan for promoting space exploration and to develope space industry in Korea, I think that it is necessary for us to enlarge and to reorganize the function and manpower of the Space Technology Development Division of the Ministry of Science & Technology and the Korea Aerospace Research Institute. Korea has been carrying out its space program step by step according to the National Space Program. Korea also will continually strengthen the exchange and cooperation with all the countries in the world under the principle of equality, friendship relations and mutual benefits. Together with all other peoples around the globe, Korea will make due contribution towards the peaceful utilization of space resources and promotion of human progress and prosperity.

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Domestic Legislative Problems on the Civil Liability of Air Carrier in Korea Focus on the Example of Every Countries' Legislation (한국(韓國)에 있어서 항공안전인(航空運送人)의 민사책임(民事責任)에 관한 국내입법(國內立法)의 제문제(諸問題) ${\sim}$각국(各國)의 입법례(立法例)를 중심(中心)으로 하여${\sim}$)

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.9-53
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    • 2004
  • This paper described the contents of theme entitled "Domestic Legislative Problems on the Civil Liability of Air Carrier in Korea" including the current example of fourteen countries' legislation ((1) Great Britain, (2) United States of America, (3) Canada, (4)European Union), (5) Germany, (6) France, (7) Italy, (8) Spain, (9) Swiss, (10) Australia, (11) Japan, (12) People's Republic of China, (13) Taiwan, (14) North Korea) relating to the aviation law or air transport law. Though the Korean and Japanese aviation act has provided only the public items such as (1) registration of aircraft, (2) persons engaged in aviation, (3) operation of aircraft, (4) aviation facilities including airport, (5) air transport business, (6) investigate of aircraft accidents etc., but they could not regulated the private items such as the legal relations of the air transport contract (1) air passenger ticket, (2) air luggage ticket, (3) airway bill, (4) liability of air carrier, (5) amount of compensation for damage caused by aircraft accidents, (6)jurisdiction, (7) arbitration, (8) limitation of action, (9) combined carriage, (10) carriage by air performed by an actual carrier other than contracting carrier, damage caused by aircraft to the third parties etc. in their aviation act until now. In order to solve speedily the legal problems on the limitation of air carrier's liability and long law suit and disputes between wrongdoers and survivors etc, it is necessary and desirable for us to enact a new "Draft for the Air Transport Act" including the abovementioned private items. I would like to propose personally and strongly the legislation of "Draft for the Air Transport Act" in Korea in emphasizing the importance of ensuring protection of the interests of consumers air passengers and shippers in carriage by air and the need for equitable compensation between air carriers and survivors caused by the aircraft accidents such as the German Air Transport Act (Luftverkerhrsgesetz).

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Meteorological Constraints and Countermeasures in Rice Breeding -Breeding for cold tolerance- (기상재해와 수도육종상의 대책 - 내냉성품종육성방안-)

  • Mun-Hue Heu;Young-Soo Han
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.371-384
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    • 1982
  • Highly cold tolerant varieties are requested not only at high latitute cool area but also tropical high elevated areas, and the required tolerance is different from location to location. IRRI identified 6 different types of cold tolerance required in the world for breeding purpose; a) Hokkaido type, b) Suweon type, c) Taipei 1st season type, d) Taipei 2nd season type, e) Tropical alpine type and, f) Bangladesh type. The cold tolerance requested in Korea is more eargent in Tongil group cultivars and their required tolerance is the one such as the physiological activities at low temperature are as active as in Japonica group cultivars at least during young seedling stage and reproduction stage. With conventional Japonica cultivars, such cold tolerant characters are requested as short growth duration but stable basic vegetative growth, less sensitive to high temperature and less prolonged growth duration at low temperature. The methods screening for cold tolerance were developed rapidly after the Tongil cultivar was reliesed. The facilities of screening for cold tolerance, such as, low temperature incubator, cold water tank, growth cabinet, phytotron, cold water nursery in Chuncheon, breeding nursery located in Jinbu, Unbong and Youngduk, are well established. Foreign facilities such as, cold water tank with the rapid generation advancement facilities, cold nurseries located in Banaue, Kathmandu and Kashimir may be available for the screening of some limitted breeding materials. For the reference, screening methods applied at different growth stages in Japan are introduced. The component characters of cold tolerance are not well identified, but the varietal differences in a) germinability, b) young seedling growth, c) rooting, d) tillering, e) discolation, f) nutrition uptake, g) photosynthesis rate, h) delay in heading, i) pollen sterility, and j) grain fertility at low temperature are reported to be distinguishable. Relationships among those traits are not consistent. Reported studies on the inheritance of cold tolerance are summarized. Four or more genes are controlling low temperature germinability, one or several genes are controlling seedling tolerance, and four or more genes are responsible for the pollen fertility of the rice treated with cold air or grown in the cold water nursery. But most of those data indicate that the results may come out in different way if those were tested at different temperature. Many cold tolerant parents among Japonicas, Indicas and Javanicas were identified as the results of the improvement of cold tolerance screening techniques and IRTP efforts and they are ready to be utilized. Considering a) diversification of germ plasm, b) integration of resistances to diseases and insects, c) identification of adaptability of recommending cultivars and, d) systematic control of recommending cultivars, breeding strategies for short term and long term are suggested. For short term, efforts will be concentrated mainly to the conventional cultivar group. Domestic cultivars will be used as foundation stock and ecologically different foreign introductions such as from Hokkaido, China or from Taiwan, will be used as cross parents for the adjustment of growth durations and synthsize the prototype of tolerances. While at the other side, extreme early waxy Japonicas will be crossed with the Indica parents which are identified for their resistances to the diseases and insects. Through the back corsses to waxy Japonicas, those Indica resistances will be transfered to the Japonicas and these will be utilized to the crosses for the improvement of resistances of prototype. For the long term, efforts will be payed to synthsize all the available tolerances identified any from Japonicas, Indicas and Javanicas to diversify the germ plasm. The tolerant cultivars newly synthsized, should be stable and affected minimum. to the low temperature at all the growing stages. The resistances to the diseases and insects should be integrated also. The rapid generation advancement, pollen culture and international cooperations were emphasized to maximize the breeding efficiency.

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Preparation of Pure CO2 Standard Gas from Calcium Carbonate for Stable Isotope Analysis (탄산칼슘을 이용한 이산화탄소 안정동위원소 표준시료 제작에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Mi-Kyung;Park, Sunyoung;Kang, Dong-Jin;Li, Shanlan;Kim, Jae-Yeon;Jo, Chun Ok;Kim, Jooil;Kim, Kyung-Ryul
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.40-46
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    • 2013
  • The isotope ratios of $^{13}C/^{12}C$ and $^{18}O/^{16}O$ for a sample in a mass spectrometer are measured relative to those of a pure $CO_2$ reference gas (i.e., laboratory working standard). Thus, the calibration of a laboratory working standard gas to the international isotope scales (Pee Dee Belemnite (PDB) for ${\delta}^{13}C$ and Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (V-SMOW) for ${\delta}^{18}O$) is essential for comparisons between data sets obtained by other groups on other mass spectrometers. However, one often finds difficulties in getting well-calibrated standard gases, because of their production time and high price. Additional difficulty is that fractionation processes can occur inside the gas cylinder most likely due to pressure drop in long-term use. Therefore, studies on laboratory production of pure $CO_2$ isotope standard gas from stable solid calcium carbonate standard materials, have been performed. For this study, we propose a method to extract pure $CO_2$ gas without isotope fractionation from a solid calcium carbonate material. The method is similar to that suggested by Coplen et al., (1983), but is better optimized particularly to make a large amount of pure $CO_2$ gas from calcium carbonate material. The $CaCO_3$ releases $CO_2$ in reaction with 100% pure phosphoric acid at $25^{\circ}C$ in a custom designed, evacuated reaction vessel. Here we introduce optimal procedure, reaction conditions, and samples/reactants size for calcium carbonate-phosphoric acid reaction and also provide the details for extracting, purifying and collecting $CO_2$ gas out of the reaction vessel. The measurements for ${\delta}^{18}O$ and ${\delta}^{13}C$ of $CO_2$ were performed at Seoul National University using a stable isotope ratio mass spectrometer (VG Isotech, SIRA Series II) operated in dual-inlet mode. The entire analysis precisions for ${\delta}^{18}O$ and ${\delta}^{13}C$ were evaluated based on the standard deviations of multiple measurements on 15 separate samples of purified $CO_2$. The pure $CO_2$ samples were taken from 100-mg aliquots of a solid calcium carbonate (Solenhofen-ori $CaCO_3$) during 8-day experimental period. The multiple measurements yielded the $1{\sigma}$ precisions of ${\pm}0.01$‰ for ${\delta}^{13}C$ and ${\pm}0.05$‰ for ${\delta}^{18}O$, comparable to the internal instrumental precisions of SIRA. Therefore, we conclude the method proposed in this study can serve as a way to produce an accurate secondary and/or laboratory $CO_2$ standard gas. We hope this study helps resolve difficulties in placing a laboratory working standard onto the international isotope scales and does make accurate comparisons with other data sets from other groups.

Accelerometer-based Gesture Recognition for Robot Interface (로봇 인터페이스 활용을 위한 가속도 센서 기반 제스처 인식)

  • Jang, Min-Su;Cho, Yong-Suk;Kim, Jae-Hong;Sohn, Joo-Chan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2011
  • Vision and voice-based technologies are commonly utilized for human-robot interaction. But it is widely recognized that the performance of vision and voice-based interaction systems is deteriorated by a large margin in the real-world situations due to environmental and user variances. Human users need to be very cooperative to get reasonable performance, which significantly limits the usability of the vision and voice-based human-robot interaction technologies. As a result, touch screens are still the major medium of human-robot interaction for the real-world applications. To empower the usability of robots for various services, alternative interaction technologies should be developed to complement the problems of vision and voice-based technologies. In this paper, we propose the use of accelerometer-based gesture interface as one of the alternative technologies, because accelerometers are effective in detecting the movements of human body, while their performance is not limited by environmental contexts such as lighting conditions or camera's field-of-view. Moreover, accelerometers are widely available nowadays in many mobile devices. We tackle the problem of classifying acceleration signal patterns of 26 English alphabets, which is one of the essential repertoires for the realization of education services based on robots. Recognizing 26 English handwriting patterns based on accelerometers is a very difficult task to take over because of its large scale of pattern classes and the complexity of each pattern. The most difficult problem that has been undertaken which is similar to our problem was recognizing acceleration signal patterns of 10 handwritten digits. Most previous studies dealt with pattern sets of 8~10 simple and easily distinguishable gestures that are useful for controlling home appliances, computer applications, robots etc. Good features are essential for the success of pattern recognition. To promote the discriminative power upon complex English alphabet patterns, we extracted 'motion trajectories' out of input acceleration signal and used them as the main feature. Investigative experiments showed that classifiers based on trajectory performed 3%~5% better than those with raw features e.g. acceleration signal itself or statistical figures. To minimize the distortion of trajectories, we applied a simple but effective set of smoothing filters and band-pass filters. It is well known that acceleration patterns for the same gesture is very different among different performers. To tackle the problem, online incremental learning is applied for our system to make it adaptive to the users' distinctive motion properties. Our system is based on instance-based learning (IBL) where each training sample is memorized as a reference pattern. Brute-force incremental learning in IBL continuously accumulates reference patterns, which is a problem because it not only slows down the classification but also downgrades the recall performance. Regarding the latter phenomenon, we observed a tendency that as the number of reference patterns grows, some reference patterns contribute more to the false positive classification. Thus, we devised an algorithm for optimizing the reference pattern set based on the positive and negative contribution of each reference pattern. The algorithm is performed periodically to remove reference patterns that have a very low positive contribution or a high negative contribution. Experiments were performed on 6500 gesture patterns collected from 50 adults of 30~50 years old. Each alphabet was performed 5 times per participant using $Nintendo{(R)}$ $Wii^{TM}$ remote. Acceleration signal was sampled in 100hz on 3 axes. Mean recall rate for all the alphabets was 95.48%. Some alphabets recorded very low recall rate and exhibited very high pairwise confusion rate. Major confusion pairs are D(88%) and P(74%), I(81%) and U(75%), N(88%) and W(100%). Though W was recalled perfectly, it contributed much to the false positive classification of N. By comparison with major previous results from VTT (96% for 8 control gestures), CMU (97% for 10 control gestures) and Samsung Electronics(97% for 10 digits and a control gesture), we could find that the performance of our system is superior regarding the number of pattern classes and the complexity of patterns. Using our gesture interaction system, we conducted 2 case studies of robot-based edutainment services. The services were implemented on various robot platforms and mobile devices including $iPhone^{TM}$. The participating children exhibited improved concentration and active reaction on the service with our gesture interface. To prove the effectiveness of our gesture interface, a test was taken by the children after experiencing an English teaching service. The test result showed that those who played with the gesture interface-based robot content marked 10% better score than those with conventional teaching. We conclude that the accelerometer-based gesture interface is a promising technology for flourishing real-world robot-based services and content by complementing the limits of today's conventional interfaces e.g. touch screen, vision and voice.

A Study on Growth Type of Comic strips Heroes through Journey of Life (삶의 여정을 통한 만화 히어로 성장유형 연구)

  • Kim, MiRim
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.29
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    • pp.173-207
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    • 2012
  • The four-phased plot which consists of introduction, development, turn and conclusion in the long-story structure tends to be patterned and schematized. The behavior of characters is in line with the beginning of human beings and the plot of comic strips basically has four phases. It is, however, not a simple arrangement but a complex one which was developed by organizing patterns of human power, behavior and emotions. With the results from a survey with college students studying comic strips, this study aims to categorize four characters from the archetypal system by Carol Pearson, four phases of the hero's journey by Joseph Campbell, and the four phases of the plot based on Aristotle's theory, which is the frame of the comic strip structure through supporting evidence extracted from comic strips in an integrated way. In this study, the categorization is performed by simplifying and systemizing a character's life cycle, which is a factor of a story structure in complex comic strips. This study is to identify what comic strip writers express by using the metaphor in the complicated long-story structure of comic strips This study reveals that the structure of introduction, development, turn and conclusion based on the plot theory by Aristotle is the metaphor of human life and fate and that the phases of development in the archetypal system by Carol Pearson, a Jung researcher influenced by Jung's theory are the metaphor of human life and fate. Also, the theories of Joseph Campbell, who also was influenced by Jung, are the metaphor of human life and fate as they projected complex emotions of joy, anger, sorrow, and pleasure onto the archetype of heroes and used the metaphor of the hero's journey. Lastly, the theories are introduced with the approach of 'guide to screenwriters' by Christopher Vogler. Meanwhile, this metaphor is the objective and goal of this study. The comic strips selected for this study seem to have long complex stories which have characters leaving their homes, going through adventures and difficulties, meeting the world in another way, experiencing tension, competition, wars, and hardship and returning home with compensation. They grow mentally and psychologically through their journeys and finally become heroes. They express the meaning of our introspection in a narrative through plots and images of comic strips. This appears complex but the basic structure of long comic strips has four phases of plot. The life style of an extraordinary character traveling for adventures and growing in long comic strips can be divided into four phases symbolizing childhood, adolescence, adulthood, and senescence and it is a psychological growth process. The archetypes of the character can be divided into four phases and the growth process can be explained. The hero's journey symbolized by the character can be also divided into four phases. Through theories, the complex arrangement of four-phased plots in comic strips corresponds with the growth process of introduction, development, turn and conclusion through the stages of life. At the same time, this study found that the characters becoming heroes are the metaphor of introspection and that the characters' growth and life correspond with the four phases in life through long comic strips. Long stories in long comic strips written by comic strip writers show that characters go on their journeys and change their lives through hardship and difficulty by logical construction of plot and their growth processes are presented in archetypal images and they reach introspection as heroes. The readers share time and space through images in comic strips and realize that they had the same experience as the characters emotionally by being moved by the stories.

A Study of Reliability and Validity on the Korean Version of Social Adaptation Self Rating Scale(SASS) (한국어판 사회적응자기평가척도(SASS)의 신뢰도 및 타당도 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Seob;Kim, Yong-Ku;Yoon, Choong-Han;Jeong, Han-Yong;Cheong, Young-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.212-227
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    • 2000
  • This study was designed to testify the reliability and validation on the Korean version of the Social Adaptation Self-rating Scale(SASS) which was developed from Bose et al. for the evaluation of social motivation and behavior of depressed patients in 1997. Interests for the social world, those of social functioning, of patients were involved in the addition of new measure of disturbance. And those were distinct from abnormalities of thought, mood and symptoms of patients with major depression. As the previous reports there were several evidences that treatments may be less likely to be effective if the system they act on is dysfunctional. Thus, a better social situation favoured better outcome. As a matter of fact, however, those reports were developed in the course of the evaluation of interpersonal therapy(IPT) and cognitive therapy. Accordingly the conversed question -whether pharmacological therapy with antidepressants can impact on social functioning in addition to addressing the core features of illness- has been addressed. To date, anyhow, it is accepted that enhancement of social functioning may be a therapeutic principle in its own right and illness rarely divorced from social context. In terms of those concepts the introduction of an assessment of social functioning into pharmacotherapeutic studies of depression has been welcomed and might be a potent instrument for evaluating the relative pharmacoeconomic benefits of different treatments. Despite of many scales which were applied for the evaluation of symptoms in the patients with depression, however, the scale for the evaluation of social functiong has not been introduced in Korea yet. Thus, this study was designed to introduce the concepts of social functioning in the patients with depression and to testify the reliability and validation on Korean version of SASS. This Korean version of SASS was submitted to a reliability and validation procedure based on the data from healthy general population survey in 291 individuals and 40 patients with major depression. Cronbach a was 0.790 in total subjects group and the correlation of test-retest was statistically significant(y=0.653, p<0.0l). Thus, the Korean version of SASS might be shown to be valid and reliable. The results of multivariate analyses allowed the identification of 3 principle factors(factor 1 = intersts in social activities, factor 2 = active interpersonal relationship, factor 3 = selfesteem) in normal group, however, it could be counted as only one factor in the depression group because nearly total items of SASS were involved in factor 1. In the view of these results, the Korean version of SASS may be useful additional tool for the evaluation of social functioning in depression.

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The Market Segmentation of Coffee Shops and the Difference Analysis of Consumer Behavior: A Case based on Caffe Bene (커피전문점의 시장세분화와 소비자행동 차이 분석 : 카페베네 사례를 중심으로)

  • Yu, Jong-Pil;Yoon, Nam-Soo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 2011
  • This study provides analysis of the effectiveness of domestic marketing strategies of the Korean coffee shop "Caffe Bene". It bases its evaluation on statistical outputs of 'choice attributes,' "market segmentation," demographic characteristics," and "satisfaction differences." The results are summarized in four points. First, five choice attributes were extracted from factor analysis: price, atmosphere, comfort, taste, and location; these are related to coffee shop selection behavior. Based on these five factors, cluster analysis was conducted, with statistical results classifying customers into three major groups: atmosphere oriented; comfort oriented; and taste oriented. Second, discriminant analysis tested cluster analysis and showed two discriminant functions: location and atmosphere. Third, cross-tabulation analysis based on demographic characteristics showed distinctive demographic characteristics within the three groups. Atmosphere oriented group, early-20s, as women of all ages was found to be 'walking down the street 'and 'through acquaintances' in many cases, as the cognitive path, and mostly found the store through 'outdoor advertising', and 'introduction'. Comfort oriented group was mainly women who are students in their early twenties or professionals, and appeared as a group to be very loyal because of high recommendation to other customers compared to other groups. Taste oriented group, unlike the other group, was mainly late-20s' college graduates, and was confirmed, as low loyalty, with lower recommendation activity. Fourth, to analyze satisfaction differences, one-way ANOVA was conducted. It shows that groups which show high satisfaction in the five main factors also show high menu satisfaction and high overall satisfaction. This results show that segmented marketing strategies are necessary because customers are considering price, atmosphere, comfort, taste, location when they choose coffee shop and demographics show different attributes based on segmented groups. For example, atmosphere oriented group is satisfied with shop interior and comfort while dissatisfied with price because most of the customers in this group are early 20s and do not have great financial capability. Thus, price discounting marketing strategies based on individual situations through CRM system is critical. Comfort oriented group shows high satisfaction level about location and shop comfort. Also, in this group, there are many early 20s female customers, students, and self-employed people. This group customers show high word of mouth tendency, hence providing positive brand image to the customers would be important. In case of taste oriented group, while the scores of taste and location are high, word of mouth score is low. This group is mainly composed of educated and professional many late 20s customers, therefore, menu differentiation, increasing quality of coffee taste and price discrimination is critical to increase customers' satisfaction. However, it is hard to generalize the results of study to other coffee shop brand, because this study have researched only one domestic coffee shop, Caffe Bene. Thus if future study expand the scope of locations, brands, and occupations, the results of the study would provide more generalizable results. Finally, research of customer satisfactions of menu, trust, loyalty, and switching cost would be critical in the future study.

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Customer Behavior Prediction of Binary Classification Model Using Unstructured Information and Convolution Neural Network: The Case of Online Storefront (비정형 정보와 CNN 기법을 활용한 이진 분류 모델의 고객 행태 예측: 전자상거래 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Seungsoo;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.221-241
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    • 2018
  • Deep learning is getting attention recently. The deep learning technique which had been applied in competitions of the International Conference on Image Recognition Technology(ILSVR) and AlphaGo is Convolution Neural Network(CNN). CNN is characterized in that the input image is divided into small sections to recognize the partial features and combine them to recognize as a whole. Deep learning technologies are expected to bring a lot of changes in our lives, but until now, its applications have been limited to image recognition and natural language processing. The use of deep learning techniques for business problems is still an early research stage. If their performance is proved, they can be applied to traditional business problems such as future marketing response prediction, fraud transaction detection, bankruptcy prediction, and so on. So, it is a very meaningful experiment to diagnose the possibility of solving business problems using deep learning technologies based on the case of online shopping companies which have big data, are relatively easy to identify customer behavior and has high utilization values. Especially, in online shopping companies, the competition environment is rapidly changing and becoming more intense. Therefore, analysis of customer behavior for maximizing profit is becoming more and more important for online shopping companies. In this study, we propose 'CNN model of Heterogeneous Information Integration' using CNN as a way to improve the predictive power of customer behavior in online shopping enterprises. In order to propose a model that optimizes the performance, which is a model that learns from the convolution neural network of the multi-layer perceptron structure by combining structured and unstructured information, this model uses 'heterogeneous information integration', 'unstructured information vector conversion', 'multi-layer perceptron design', and evaluate the performance of each architecture, and confirm the proposed model based on the results. In addition, the target variables for predicting customer behavior are defined as six binary classification problems: re-purchaser, churn, frequent shopper, frequent refund shopper, high amount shopper, high discount shopper. In order to verify the usefulness of the proposed model, we conducted experiments using actual data of domestic specific online shopping company. This experiment uses actual transactions, customers, and VOC data of specific online shopping company in Korea. Data extraction criteria are defined for 47,947 customers who registered at least one VOC in January 2011 (1 month). The customer profiles of these customers, as well as a total of 19 months of trading data from September 2010 to March 2012, and VOCs posted for a month are used. The experiment of this study is divided into two stages. In the first step, we evaluate three architectures that affect the performance of the proposed model and select optimal parameters. We evaluate the performance with the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model, which combines both structured and unstructured information, is superior compared to NBC(Naïve Bayes classification), SVM(Support vector machine), and ANN(Artificial neural network). Therefore, it is significant that the use of unstructured information contributes to predict customer behavior, and that CNN can be applied to solve business problems as well as image recognition and natural language processing problems. It can be confirmed through experiments that CNN is more effective in understanding and interpreting the meaning of context in text VOC data. And it is significant that the empirical research based on the actual data of the e-commerce company can extract very meaningful information from the VOC data written in the text format directly by the customer in the prediction of the customer behavior. Finally, through various experiments, it is possible to say that the proposed model provides useful information for the future research related to the parameter selection and its performance.