• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.28 no.6
• /
• pp.1471-1479
• /
• 2017

The variability of trade price index of apartment influences on the various aspect, especially economics, social phenomenon, industry, and culture of the country. In this article, the autoregressive error (ARE) model has been considered for analyzing the monthly trading price index of apartment data. About 16 years of the monthly data have been used from September 2001 to May 2017. In the ARE model, six macroeconomic variables are used as the explanatory variables for the rade price index of apartment. The six explanatory variables are mortgage rate, oil import price index, consumer price index, KOSPI stock index, GDP, and GNI. The result has shown that trading price index of apartment explained about 76% by the mortgage rate, and KOSPI stock index.

• Economic Analysis
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.1-47
• /
• 2020

This paper surveys research since the 1990s on the ability of the yield spread and its components (i.e., expectation spread and term premium components) for future economic activity, and also conducts an empirical analysis of their forecasting ability using the yield data of Korean government bonds. This paper's survey, particularly for the US, shows that the yield spread has significant predictive power for some macroeconomic variables, but since the mid-1980s, its predictive power seems to have declined, possibly due to stronger inflation targeting. Next, this paper's empirical analysis using Korean data indicates that the yield spread, and the term premium component in particular, has significant predictive power for industrial production (IP) growth, consumer price index growth, and the IP gap. An out-of-sample analysis shows that the prediction equations are unstable over time, and that in predicting IP growth, the yield spread decomposition makes a significant contribution to the prediction of IP growth.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2022.05a
• /
• pp.459-459
• /
• 2022

물수지의 불균형으로 발생되는 가뭄은 장기간에 걸쳐 넓은 규모로 발생되는 자연재해로서, 농업 및 산업에 직접 피해와 다양한 상품에 대한 공급 부족으로 인한 가격 상승 등의 간접 피해를 야기하는 재해이다. 이러한 가뭄을 정량적으로 평가하기 위하여 기상 요인(강수, 기온), 농업 요인(식생), 수문 요인(증발산, 토양수분) 등과 같은 설명 변수를 기초로 하는 많은 가뭄지수들이 개발되어 왔다. 대표적인 가뭄지수에는 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI), Vegetation condition index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Scaled Drought Condition Index (SDCI), Integrated Crop Drought Index (ICDI) 등이 있다. 본 연구는 최근 개발된 통합작물가뭄지수(ICDI)를 통해 미국 옥수수의 약 90%를 생산하는 농업지역인 미국 콘벨트의 가뭄 특성을 분석하고자 한다. ICDI는 기상 요인(강우량 및 지표면 온도), 수문학적 요인(잠재 증발산 및 토양수분), 식생 요인(강화식생지수(Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI))의 조합을 통해 지표면의 건조·습윤 상태 및 식생의 건강 상태를 설명하는 가뭄지수이다. 2004년부터 2019년까지 주요 콘벨트 지역인 일리노이, 인디애나, 아이오와를 대상으로 가뭄분석을 실시하였으며, 옥수수 수확량 아노말리와의 상관성을 분석하였다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.417-424
• /
• 2013

The purpose of this study is to find out the effect of macroeconomic variables on the hotel profitability and suggest the reasonable way to handle them. To achieve this purpose, seven macroeconomic variables were used as an independent variable. These were the index of industrial production, West Texas Intermediate, the consumer price index, the unemployment rate, the money supply, the trade balance and the exchange rate. And ROA and ROE of total hotels were used as a dependant variable respectively. As the result of regression, it was found that the index of industrial production and the exchange rate had a significant and positive effect on ROA. And West Texas Intermediate, the consumer price index and the unemployment rate had a significant and negative effect on ROA. Also the consumer price index and the unemployment rate had a significant and negative effect on ROE and the exchange rate had a significant and positive effect on ROE. Through the analysis two key variables were found to be very important ones. These were the unemployment rate and the exchange rate. So the hotel managers need to emphasize on the good price of domestic hotel products and supply the various productions and services to the guests when the exchange rate is increased. But when the unemployment rate is increased, the hotel managers should consider to supply the middle price products with the hight price products.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.28 no.4
• /
• pp.193-207
• /
• 2012

The of purpose of this study is to predict export and import container volumes using a Decision Tree analysis. Factors which can influence the volume of container cargo are selected as independent variables; producer price index, consumer price index, index of export volume, index of import volume, index of industrial production, and exchange rate(won/dollar). The period of analysis is from january 2002 to December 2011 and monthly data are used. In this study, CRT(Classification and Regression Trees) algorithm is used. The main findings are summarized as followings. First, when index of export volume is larger than 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 858,19TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 115.90 and 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 716,582TEU. Second, when index of import volume is larger than 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 869,227TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 116.20 and 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 738,724TEU.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.155-177
• /
• 2012

This paper aims at measuring the changes of Malmquist productivity and technical efficiency of Korean shipbuilding Industry and examinig their determinants utilizing the panel analysis. The increase of the technological progress was greater than technical efficiency, resulting in the increase of the total factor productivity for the period of 2004-2010. This study also employs the panel technique to analyse the effects of Employee, Dock, and Length on the changes of Malmquist productivity and technical efficiency. The dependent variables are obtained from three combinations, which are (Employee, Dock, and CGT), (Employee, Length, and CGT), and (Dock, and Length, and CGT). The empirical results show that all of the explanatory variables have a positive effect on the change of Malmquist productivity and technical efficiency.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
• /
• v.33 no.3
• /
• pp.3-19
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of regional industrial diversity on regional business cycle response to national volatility. We employed mean group and pooled mean group estimators of panel vector error-correction models in order to control unobserved heterogeneity of the port cities, such as Pusan, Ulsan and Incheon. The results show that in various industrial regions, short-term fluctuations in the unemployment rate are small compared to other regions. On the contrary, long-term volatility of manufacturing production index is low in those regions.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.32-44
• /
• 1987

This study was carried out to analyze and furecast the domestic demand for plywood in Korea by regression models with time-series data for 16 years(1970-85). The results obtained were summarized as follows. 1. To analyze domestic demand for plywood, GNP, PWI and CWI were used as independant variables. The domestic demand equation was computed as follows: $^{in}DDP$=0.65186+1.29412 $^{in}GNP$-0.28385 $^{in}PWI$-1.05011 $^{in}CWI$ Where DDP : Domestic demand for plywood(1000 S/F) GNP: Gross national product (Billion won) PWI : Real wholesale price index of plywood CWI: Real wholesale price index of construction materials. 2. Among independant variables reflecting on the production activity of plywood industry, GNP was the most decisive in forecasting the domestic demand for plywood. 3. The significance can be recognized highly because the decision coefficient of the forecasting model which is obtained by using time series data is 0.9. 4. According to the estimated regression coefficients for GNP, PWI and CWI, GNP shows positive relation while PWI and CWI show negative relation. 5. An annual average increase rate of demand for plywood was 9.4 percent during expect period. Therefore, it was decreased slightly than that of 10.2 percent during sample period.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.11 no.12
• /
• pp.403-412
• /
• 2011

The execution of capital market law causes severe competition by promoting restructuring of financial industry. This study analyze efficiency and productivity change of the Korean Non-Life Insurance industry between pre-execution and pre-execution of capital market law using DEA model and Malmquist Index. Additionally, this study finds determinants of efficiency using tobit regression. The main results of this study can by summarized as follows. First, the efficiency with post-execution was increased comparing with pre-execution of capital market law significantly. Second, the productivity with post-execution was increased comparing with pre-execution of capital market law significantly. Third, significant determinants of technical efficiency and pure technical efficiency are weight of life planner. operation rate of assets respectively. And significant determinant of scale efficiency are firm size, operation rate of assets, weight of life planner.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.31-66
• /
• 2006

The country with a relative abundance of human capital conducts relatively more R&D in the steady state than its partner. This country acquires the know-how to produce a relatively wider range of innovative goods. High technology comprises a large share of the national economy in the human-capital rich country and real output growth is faster. This prediction would seem to accord weakly with empirical observation of Korean economy.