• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실함

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SSP Climate Change Scenarios with 1km Resolution Over Korean Peninsula for Agricultural Uses (농업분야 활용을 위한 한반도 1km 격자형 SSP 기후변화 시나리오)

  • Jina Hur;Jae-Pil Cho;Sera Jo;Kyo-Moon Shim;Yong-Seok Kim;Min-Gu Kang;Chan-Sung Oh;Seung-Beom Seo;Eung-Sup Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2024
  • The international community adopts the SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenario as a new greenhouse gas emission pathway. As part of efforts to reflect these international trends and support for climate change adaptation measure in the agricultural sector, the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) produced high-resolution (1 km) climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula based on SSP scenarios, certified as a "National Climate Change Standard Scenario" in 2022. This paper introduces SSP climate change scenario of the NAS and shows the results of the climate change projections. In order to produce future climate change scenarios, global climate data produced from 18 GCM models participating in CMIP6 were collected for the past (1985-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods, and were statistically downscaled for the Korean Peninsula using the digital climate maps with 1km resolution and the SQM method. In the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), the average annual maximum/minimum temperature of the Korean Peninsula is projected to increase by 2.6~6.1℃/2.5~6.3℃ and annual precipitation by 21.5~38.7% depending on scenarios. The increases in temperature and precipitation under the low-carbon scenario were smaller than those under high-carbon scenario. It is projected that the average wind speed and solar radiation over the analysis region will not change significantly in the end of the 21st century compared to the present. This data is expected to contribute to understanding future uncertainties due to climate change and contributing to rational decision-making for climate change adaptation.

Study on the Possibility of Estimating Surface Soil Moisture Using Sentinel-1 SAR Satellite Imagery Based on Google Earth Engine (Google Earth Engine 기반 Sentinel-1 SAR 위성영상을 이용한 지표 토양수분량 산정 가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Younghyun Cho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.229-241
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    • 2024
  • With the advancement of big data processing technology using cloud platforms, access, processing, and analysis of large-volume data such as satellite imagery have recently been significantly improved. In this study, the Change Detection Method, a relatively simple technique for retrieving soil moisture, was applied to the backscattering coefficient values of pre-processed Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery product based on Google Earth Engine (GEE), one of those platforms, to estimate the surface soil moisture for six observatories within the Yongdam Dam watershed in South Korea for the period of 2015 to 2023, as well as the watershed average. Subsequently, a correlation analysis was conducted between the estimated values and actual measurements, along with an examination of the applicability of GEE. The results revealed that the surface soil moisture estimated for small areas within the soil moisture observatories of the watershed exhibited low correlations ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 for both VH and VV polarizations, likely due to the inherent measurement accuracy of the SAR satellite imagery and variations in data characteristics. However, the surface soil moisture average, which was derived by extracting the average SAR backscattering coefficient values for the entire watershed area and applying moving averages to mitigate data uncertainties and variability, exhibited significantly improved results at the level of 0.5. The results obtained from estimating soil moisture using GEE demonstrate its utility despite limitations in directly conducting desired analyses due to preprocessed SAR data. However, the efficient processing of extensive satellite imagery data allows for the estimation and evaluation of soil moisture over broad ranges, such as long-term watershed averages. This highlights the effectiveness of GEE in handling vast satellite imagery datasets to assess soil moisture. Based on this, it is anticipated that GEE can be effectively utilized to assess long-term variations of soil moisture average in major dam watersheds, in conjunction with soil moisture observation data from various locations across the country in the future.

The Effect of CEO's Entrepreneurship on Intra-organization Innovation through Creative self-efficacy and the Moderating Effect of Organizational Commitment (창의적 효능감을 통해 조직 내 혁신을 유발하는 CEO의 기업가정신과 조직몰입의 조절효과)

  • Kim, Sun-Wang;Sung, Eul-Hyun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.45-61
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    • 2024
  • This study looked in-depth at the importance of cultivating and manifesting entrepreneurship, which is emphasized for companies to gain a competitive advantage and promote innovation in the uncertain environment that organizations face and in the development of technology due to recent industrial advancement, the following innovative performance, and the mechanisms in the performance process. Entrepreneurship is emphasized as a key factor in inducing creative work performance, creation and application of new ideas, and innovative performance at various levels within the organization in various global companies. In particular, this study examined the influence of the CEO's cultivation and expression of entrepreneurship as an organizational leader on the innovative behavior of organizational members, which is a leading factor in the organization's innovative performance, and the role of creative self-efficacy as a mechanism. Through this, the study was to verify the importance of creativity and cultivating a sense of self-efficacy for demonstrating innovative performance within an organization. Additionally, it was to confirm the role of organizational commitment of organizational members as a situational factor. For the empirical analysis, a total of 247 office workers were surveyed, sampled from 10 venture companies engaged in the manufacturing industry in industrial complexes in Daejeon, Korea. As the result of empirical analysis showed, it was confirmed that each sub-factor of the CEO's entrepreneurship had a positive effect on the innovative behavior of organizational members. And in the process, the importance of the creative self-efficacy of members to demonstrate innovative performance was verified by confirming positively significant mediating effect of creative self-efficacy. Furthermore, in the case of organizational commitment, it was found that the innovativeness and proactiveness of the CEO strengthened the positive influence on the creative efficacy of the organization members. Based on the results of empirical analysis, theoretical and practical implications were provided to improve the importance of cultivating and manifesting the CEO's entrepreneurship to demonstrate innovation within the organization.

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High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction using distributed hydrological model WRF-Hydro and numerical weather forecast GDAPS (분포형 수문모형 WRF-Hydro와 기상수치예보모형 GDAPS를 활용한 고해상도 중기 유량 예측)

  • Kim, Sohyun;Kim, Bomi;Lee, Garim;Lee, Yaewon;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.333-346
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    • 2024
  • High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction is crucial for sustainable water quality and aquatic ecosystem management. For reliable medium-range streamflow predictions, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of forcings and to effectively utilize weather forecast data with low spatio-temporal resolutions. In this study, we presented a comparative analysis of medium-range streamflow predictions using the distributed hydrological model, WRF-Hydro, and the numerical weather forecast Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) in the Geumho River basin, Korea. Multiple forcings, ground observations (AWS&ASOS), numerical weather forecast (GDAPS), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), were ingested to investigate the performance of streamflow predictions with highresolution WRF-Hydro configuration. In terms of the mean areal accumulated rainfall, GDAPS was overestimated by 36% to 234%, and GLDAS reanalysis data were overestimated by 80% to 153% compared to AWS&ASOS. The performance of streamflow predictions using AWS&ASOS resulted in KGE and NSE values of 0.6 or higher at the Kangchang station. Meanwhile, GDAPS-based streamflow predictions showed high variability, with KGE values ranging from 0.871 to -0.131 depending on the rainfall events. Although the peak flow error of GDAPS was larger or similar to that of GLDAS, the peak flow timing error of GDAPS was smaller than that of GLDAS. The average timing errors of AWS&ASOS, GDAPS, and GLDAS were 3.7 hours, 8.4 hours, and 70.1 hours, respectively. Medium-range streamflow predictions using GDAPS and high-resolution WRF-Hydro may provide useful information for water resources management especially in terms of occurrence and timing of peak flow albeit high uncertainty in flood magnitude.

Communities' Perception of the Effect of Ecosystem Services on the Forest Rehabilitation of Abandoned Mine Areas: A Case Study in Taebaek-si and Jeongseon-gun (강원도 폐광산 산림복구지의 지역사회 생태계서비스 인식조사: 태백시 및 정선군을 중심으로)

  • Bohwi Lee;Dawou Joung;Jihye Kim;Gwan-in Bak;Hakjun Rhee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.113 no.1
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    • pp.118-130
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    • 2024
  • Rehabilitation of mining areas can reduce damage to ecosystems. However, the effects of rehabilitation on ecosystem services (ESs) and its contribution to local communities are not well known. Thus, the aims of this study were to clearly identify the ES beneficiaries affected by mining activities, to determine how the beneficiaries profit from surrounding areas in cooperation with local stakeholders, and to manage the rehabilitation areas for the ESs that the beneficiaries want. This study chose 18 ESs (4 provisioning, 7 regulating, 5 cultural, and 2 habitat services) based on The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity. A semi-structured questionnaire survey using an 11-point Likert scale was conducted among 87 community residents to investigate social awareness and identify key ESs. The survey results from two local communities showed high awareness and demands mainly on cultural (mental and physical health, aesthetic appreciation, and recreation) and regulating services (local climate and air quality, and moderation of extreme events). These services were related to the daily lives of residents in local communities, provided positive benefits, and potentially improved the residents' future livelihoods. However, the average questionnaire scores were limited to 6-7 points, indicating that the benefits to local communities were meager. The residents' awareness of provisioning service was negative, even if it provided goods and profit opportunities. This indicated a disconnection between local communities and provisioning services due to forest rehabilitation that did not consider local communities that traditionally relied on specific provisioning services before the onset of mining activities. Future forest rehabilitation in abandoned mine areas must consider the welfare of local communities for sustainable use of rehabilitated forests and enhancing ESs. In this study, only a qualitative evaluation based on frequency analyses was conducted. The quantification and valuation of key ESs are warranted in the future to promote ESs from forest rehabilitation in abandoned mine areas. The study results would be useful for developing site-specific ES promotion strategies for reforesting mine areas.

A Study of the Influencing Factors for Decision Making on Construction Contract Types : Focused on DoD Construction Acquisitions with Firm Fixed Price and Cost Reimbursable in FAR (건설공사 대가지급방식의 의사결정 영향요인에 관한 연구 - 미국 연방조달규정에 따른 미국 국방성의 정액계약과 실비정산계약을 중심으로 -)

  • Son, Young-Hoon;Kim, Kyung-Rai
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzed the correlation between each of the 12 influencing factors in FAR 16.04 and the decision-making process for construction contract types, using data from a total of 2,406 DoD Construction Acquisitions spanning from 2008 to 2022. The study considered 12 independent variables, grouped into 4 Characteristics with 3 factors each. Meanwhile, all other contract types were categorized into two types: Firm-Fixed-Price (FFP) and Cost-Reimbursement Contract (CRC), which served as the dependent variables. The findings revealed that FFP contracts significantly dominated in terms of acquisition volume. In line with prevailing beliefs, logistic data analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis of Relative Weights from Experts' Survey demonstrated that independent variables like Uncertainty of the Scope of Work and Complexity found out to be increasing the likelihood of selecting CRC. The number of contractors in the market does indeed influence the possibilities of contract decision-making between CRC and FFP. Meanwhile, the p-values of the top 3 influencing factors on CRC from the AHP analysis-namely, Appropriateness of CAS, Project Urgency, and Cost Analysis-exceeded 0.05 in the binominal regression results, rendering it inconclusive whether they significantly influenced the construction contract type decision, particularly with respect to payment methods. This outcome partly results from the fact that a majority of respondents possessed specific experiences related to the USFK relocation project. Furthermore, influencing factors in construction projects behave differently than common beliefs suggest. As a result, it is imperative to consider the 12 influencing factors categorized into 4 Characteristics areas before establishing acquisition strategies for targeted construction projects.

The effect of climate change on hydroelectric power generation of multipurpose dams according to SSP scenarios (SSP 시나리오에 따른 기후변화가 다목적댐 수력발전량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Wang, Sizhe;Kim, Jiyoung;Kim, Yongchan;Kim, Dongkyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.7
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    • pp.481-491
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    • 2024
  • Recent droughts make hydroelectric power generation (HPG) decreasing. Due to climate change in the future, the frequency and intensity of drought are expected to increase, which will increase uncertainty of HPG in multi-purpose dams. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the amount of HPG according to climate change scenarios and analyze the effect of drought on the amount of HPG. This study analyzed the future HPG of the Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam according to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Regression equations for HPG were developed based on the observed data of power generation discharge and HPG in the past provided by My Water, and future HPGs were estimated according to the SSP scenarios. The effect of drought on the amount of HPG was investigated based on the drought severity calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). In this study, the future SPIs were calculated using precipitation data based on four GCM models (CanESM5, ACCESS-ESM1-5, INM-CM4-8, IPSL-CM6A) provided through the environmental big data platform. Overall results show that climate change had significant effects on the amount of HPG. In the case of Soyanggang Dam, the amount of HPG decreased in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario the CanESM model showed a 65% reduction in 2031, and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model showed a 54% reduction in 2029. In the case of Chungju Dam, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios the average monthly HPG compared to the reference period showed a decreasing trend except for INM-CM4 model.

Factor Analysis Affecting on Chartering Decision-making in the Dry Bulk Shipping Market (부정기 건화물선 시장에서 용선 의사결정에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2024
  • This study sought to confirm the impact of analytical methods and behavioral economic theory factors on decision-making when making chartering decisions in the dry bulk shipping market. This study on chartering decision-making model was began to verify why shipping companies do not make rational decision-making and behavior based on analytical methods such as freight prediction and process of alternative selection in the same market situation. To understand the chartering decision-making model, it is necessary to study the impact of behavioral economic theory such as heuristics, loss aversion, and herding behavior on chartering decision-making. Through AHP analysis, the importance of the method factors relied upon in chartering decision-making. The dependence of the top factors in chartering decision-making was in the following order: market factors, heuristics, internal factors, herding behavior, and loss aversion. Market factors, heuristics, and internal factors. As for detailed factors, spot freight index and empirical intuition were confirmed as the most important factors relied on when making decisions. It was confirmed that empirical intuition is more important than internal analysis, which is an analytical method. This study can be said to be meaningful in that it academically researched and proved the bounded rationality of humans, which cannot be fully rational, and sometimes relies on experience or psychological tendencies, by applying it to the chartering decision-making model in the dry bulk shipping market. It also suggests that in the dry bulk shipping market, which is uncertain and has a high risk of loss due to decision-making, the experience and insight of decision makers have a very important impact on the performance and business profits of the operation part of shipping companies. Even though chartering are a decision-making field that requires judgment and intuition based on heuristics, decision-makers need to be aware of this decision-making model in order to reduce repeated mistakes of deciding contrary to market situation. It also suggests that there is a need to internally research analytical methods and procedures that can complement heuristics such as empirical intuition.

Evaluation of Hydrogeological Characteristic of Natural Barrier in Korea for Establishing Safety Guidelines of Deep Geological High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Site (고준위방사성폐기물 심층처분 부지 수리 지질 안전 규제를 위한 국내 지질환경 수리 특성 평가)

  • Suwan So;Jiho Jeong;Jaesung Park;Hyeongmok Lee;Subi Lee;Sujin Kim;Sinda Mbarki;Jina Jeong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.397-416
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    • 2024
  • This study assessed the hydrogeological properties of the deep geological environment to develop safety criteria for the natural barriers used in the deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Korea. The assessment focused on the distribution and trends of hydraulic conductivity and permeability properties appropriate for the domestic geological environment, using various in-situ hydraulic test data collected for groundwater development and management. To develop a depth-hydrogeological property relationship model suitable for domestic conditions, the study reviewed various international research examples and applied a representative model that explains the trends of hydraulic conductivity and permeability with depth. The development of the model suitable for Korea involved applying ensemble regression analysis to account for the uncertainty of various factors in the collected data. The results confirmed that existing international depth-hydrogeological property relationship models adequately describe the characteristics of the domestic geological environment. Considering the preferred hydrogeological criteria suggested by countries like Sweden, Germany, and Canada, there is a high likelihood that a suitable geological environment exists in Korea. Additionally, the application of hydrogeological criteria indicative of low-permeability environments showed that suitable conditions for disposal construction increase at depths greater than 300 m, where the influence of fractures on groundwater flow might be minimal at depths exceeding 500 m. This research can serve as foundational information for establishing hydrogeological safety standards for natural barriers in Korea according to international regulatory guidelines.

The effect of adult learners' motivation to participate in hair education and program satisfaction on lifelong learning happiness index (성인학습자의 헤어교육 참여동기와 프로그램 만족도가평생학습 행복지수에 미치는 영향)

  • Lim Soon Ja
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.367-372
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    • 2024
  • It was intended to explore the relationship between motivation for participation in hair education, program satisfaction, and lifelong learning happiness index for adult learners at the Lifelong Education Center, and to provide basic data for revitalizing lifelong education programs. Today, universities have conditions as a comprehensive educational institution with practicality that can meet various and high-quality lifelong educational needs. The university-affiliated Lifelong Education Center plays a role in ensuring the right to learn for all citizens as well as fulfilling the social service function and greatly expanding educational opportunities, which is one of the essential functions of universities, by making good use of the excellent transfer material resources of universities. Adults should now seek professional self-identity through retraining, and respond flexibly to various social situations such as increasing roles, expanding responsibility, and uncertainty in the job and employment structure toward professional socialization in the professional world The subject of the study was to collect data by distributing 90 questionnaires to adult learner hair education subjects in G area, and 85 copies were finally used for SPSS 26.0 for Windows analysis, excluding questionnaires with insufficient responses. The survey period was from November 1 to December 27, 2023. First, it was found that adult learners' motivation to participate in hair education has an effect on the lifelong learning happiness index. Second, it was found that adult learners' satisfaction with the program of hair care workers has an effect on the lifelong learning happiness index. Through this study, it is judged that it is necessary to understand what can maximize the high lifelong learning happiness index, and to meet the learning needs of modern people living in the age of 100, increase their potential, help them design a second life, contribute to self-realization and society, and help them have steady, self-directed lifelong learning opportunities.