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The effect of climate change on hydroelectric power generation of multipurpose dams according to SSP scenarios (SSP 시나리오에 따른 기후변화가 다목적댐 수력발전량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Wang, Sizhe;Kim, Jiyoung;Kim, Yongchan;Kim, Dongkyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.7
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    • pp.481-491
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    • 2024
  • Recent droughts make hydroelectric power generation (HPG) decreasing. Due to climate change in the future, the frequency and intensity of drought are expected to increase, which will increase uncertainty of HPG in multi-purpose dams. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the amount of HPG according to climate change scenarios and analyze the effect of drought on the amount of HPG. This study analyzed the future HPG of the Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam according to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Regression equations for HPG were developed based on the observed data of power generation discharge and HPG in the past provided by My Water, and future HPGs were estimated according to the SSP scenarios. The effect of drought on the amount of HPG was investigated based on the drought severity calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). In this study, the future SPIs were calculated using precipitation data based on four GCM models (CanESM5, ACCESS-ESM1-5, INM-CM4-8, IPSL-CM6A) provided through the environmental big data platform. Overall results show that climate change had significant effects on the amount of HPG. In the case of Soyanggang Dam, the amount of HPG decreased in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario the CanESM model showed a 65% reduction in 2031, and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model showed a 54% reduction in 2029. In the case of Chungju Dam, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios the average monthly HPG compared to the reference period showed a decreasing trend except for INM-CM4 model.

Analysis of the 2022 Revised Science Curriculum Grades 3-4 Achievement Standards Based on Bloom's New Taxonomy of Educational Objectives and Comparison to the 2015 Revised Curriculum (Bloom의 신교육목표분류에 따른 2022 개정 과학과 교육과정 초등학교 3~4학년군 성취기준 분석 및 2015 개정 교육과정과의 비교)

  • Kim, Woo-Joong;Kim, Dong-Suk;Shin, Young-Joon;Kwon, Nan-Joo;Oh, Phil-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Elementary Science Education
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.353-364
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the achievement standards for grades 3-4 of the 2022 revised science curriculum and identify the goals of science education for grades 3-4 of the 2022 revised curriculum, as well as provide implications for the development of the science textbooks for grades 3-4 and the direction of teaching for teachers in the field. For this purpose, 57 achievement standards of the Science Department 2022 revised curriculum for grades 3-4 were analyzed as to their knowledge dimensions and cognitive processes according to Bloom's Taxonomy of the New Educational Objectives. In cases where an achievement standard is a double sentence or combines two or more knowledge dimensions or cognitive process dimensions, we separated the sentences after having consulted with a group of experts and divided the achievement standards into 57 sentences. We then analyzed the frequency of the categorization of concepts and descriptors by comparing them with the previously studied elementary science standards from the 2015 revised curriculum. The main findings of the study are as follows. First, in the knowledge dimension, the "factual knowledge" accounted for 50 items (86%), compared to "conceptual knowledge" (10%), and "procedural knowledge" (4%), and "metacognitive knowledge" was not analyzed at all. Second, in terms of the cognitive processes, "Understanding" was the highest at 60% with 34 items. It was followed by "applying" with 11%, "creating" with 19%, "evaluating" with 15%, and "analyzing" and "remembering" with 6%. Third, when analyzing the descriptors, "I can explain" was the highest with 9%, followed by "comparison" with 6%, and "practice" and "classification" with 5%. Fourth, compared to the 2015 revised curriculum, "conceptual knowledge" was reduced and "factual knowledge" was overwhelmingly increased. Fifth, in the cognitive process dimension, "understanding,' has increased significantly, while the other cognitive process dimensions have decreased. Conclusions and implications based on these findings are as follows: the focus of the Science Department for grades 3-4 in the 2022 revised curriculum is heavily weighted toward the "factual knowledge," with "understanding" dominating the cognitive process dimensions. As a result, many concepts and applications have been reduced. Based on the results of the comparison of the descriptors with the results of the 2015 revised curriculum, the implications for the development of the science textbooks for grades 3-4 of the 2022 revised curriculum were discussed, and so were the implications of the curriculum for the field.

A Study on the Legal Proposal of Crew's Fatigue Management in the Aviation Regulations (항공법규에서의 승무원 피로관리기준 도입방안에 관한 연구 - ICAO, FAA, EASA 기준을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Koo-Hee;Hwang, Ho-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.29-73
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    • 2012
  • Aviation safety is the State and industry's top priority and more scientific approaches for fatigue management should be needed. There are lately various studies and regulation changes for crew fatigue management with ICAO, FAA and EASA. ICAO issued the provisions of fatigue management for flight crew since 1st edition, 1969, of Annex 6 operation of aircraft as a Standards and Recommended practice(SARPs). Unfortunately, there have been few changes and improvement to fatigue management provisions since the time they were first introduced. However the SARPs have been big changed lately. ICAO published guidance materials for development of prescriptive fatigue regulations through amendment 33A of Annex 6 Part 1 as applicable November 19th 2009. And then ICAO introduced additional amendment for using Fatigue Risk Management System (FRMS) with $35^{th}$ amendment in 2011. According to the Annex 6, the State of the operator shall establish a) regulations for flight time, flight duty period, duty period and rest period limitations and b) FRMS regulations. The Operator shall implement one of following 3 provisions a) flight time, flight duty period, duty period and rest period limitations within the prescriptive fatigue management regulations established by the State of the Operator; or b) a FRMS; or c) a combination of a) and b). U.S. FAA recently published several kinds of Advisory Circular about flightcrew fatigue. U.S. passed "Airline Safety and FAA Extension Act of 2010" into law on August 1st, 2010. This mandates all commercial air carriers to develop a FAA-acceptable Fatigue Risk Management Plan(FRMP) by October 31st, 2010. Also, on May 16, 2012, the FAA published a final rule(correction) entitled 'Flightcrew Member Duty and Rest Requirements; correction to amend its existing prescriptive regulations. The new requirements are required to implement same regulations for domestic, flag and supplemental operations from January 4, 2014. EASA introduced a Notice of Proposed Amendment (NPA) 2010-14 entitled "Draft opinion of the European Aviation Safety Agency for a Commission Regulation establishing the implementing rules on Flight and Duty Time Limitations and Rest Requirements for Commercial Air Transport with aeroplanes" on December 10, 2010. The purpose of this NPA is to develop and implement fatigue management for commercial air transport operations. Comparing with Korean and foreign regulations regarding fatigue management, the provisions of ICAO, FAA, EASA are more considering various fatigue factors and conditions. Korea regulations should be needed for some development of insufficiency points. In this thesis, I present the results of the comparative study between domestic and foreign regulations in respect of fatigue management crew member. Also, I suggest legal proposals for amendment of Korea Aviation act and Enforcement Regulations concerning fatigue management for crew members. I hope that this paper is helpful to change korea fatigue regulations, to enhance aviation safety, and to reduce the number of accidents relating to fatigue. Fatigue should be managed at all level such as regulators, experts, operators and pilots. Authority should change surveillance mind-set from regulatory auditor to expert adviser. Operators should identify various fatigue factors and consider to crew scheduling them. Crews should strongly manage both individual and duty-oriented fatigue issues.

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An Empirical Study on Influencing Factors of Switching Intention from Online Shopping to Webrooming (온라인 쇼핑에서 웹루밍으로의 쇼핑전환 의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Hyun-Seung;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.19-41
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the proliferation of mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet personal computers and the development of information communication technologies (ICT) have led to a big trend of a shift from single-channel shopping to multi-channel shopping. With the emergence of a "smart" group of consumers who want to shop in more reasonable and convenient ways, the boundaries apparently dividing online and offline shopping have collapsed and blurred more than ever before. Thus, there is now fierce competition between online and offline channels. Ever since the emergence of online shopping, a major type of multi-channel shopping has been "showrooming," where consumers visit offline stores to examine products before buying them online. However, because of the growing use of smart devices and the counterattack of offline retailers represented by omni-channel marketing strategies, one of the latest huge trends of shopping is "webrooming," where consumers visit online stores to examine products before buying them offline. This has become a threat to online retailers. In this situation, although it is very important to examine the influencing factors for switching from online shopping to webrooming, most prior studies have mainly focused on a single- or multi-channel shopping pattern. Therefore, this study thoroughly investigated the influencing factors on customers switching from online shopping to webrooming in terms of both the "search" and "purchase" processes through the application of a push-pull-mooring (PPM) framework. In order to test the research model, 280 individual samples were gathered from undergraduate and graduate students who had actual experience with webrooming. The results of the structural equation model (SEM) test revealed that the "pull" effect is strongest on the webrooming intention rather than the "push" or "mooring" effects. This proves a significant relationship between "attractiveness of webrooming" and "webrooming intention." In addition, the results showed that both the "perceived risk of online search" and "perceived risk of online purchase" significantly affect "distrust of online shopping." Similarly, both "perceived benefit of multi-channel search" and "perceived benefit of offline purchase" were found to have significant effects on "attractiveness of webrooming" were also found. Furthermore, the results indicated that "online purchase habit" is the only influencing factor that leads to "online shopping lock-in." The theoretical implications of the study are as follows. First, by examining the multi-channel shopping phenomenon from the perspective of "shopping switching" from online shopping to webrooming, this study complements the limits of the "channel switching" perspective, represented by multi-channel freeriding studies that merely focused on customers' channel switching behaviors from one to another. While extant studies with a channel switching perspective have focused on only one type of multi-channel shopping, where consumers just move from one particular channel to different channels, a study with a shopping switching perspective has the advantage of comprehensively investigating how consumers choose and navigate among diverse types of single- or multi-channel shopping alternatives. In this study, only limited shopping switching behavior from online shopping to webrooming was examined; however, the results should explain various phenomena in a more comprehensive manner from the perspective of shopping switching. Second, this study extends the scope of application of the push-pull-mooring framework, which is quite commonly used in marketing research to explain consumers' product switching behaviors. Through the application of this framework, it is hoped that more diverse shopping switching behaviors can be examined in future research. This study can serve a stepping stone for future studies. One of the most important practical implications of the study is that it may help single- and multi-channel retailers develop more specific customer strategies by revealing the influencing factors of webrooming intention from online shopping. For example, online single-channel retailers can ease the distrust of online shopping to prevent consumers from churning by reducing the perceived risk in terms of online search and purchase. On the other hand, offline retailers can develop specific strategies to increase the attractiveness of webrooming by letting customers perceive the benefits of multi-channel search or offline purchase. Although this study focused only on customers switching from online shopping to webrooming, the results can be expanded to various types of shopping switching behaviors embedded in single- and multi-channel shopping environments, such as showrooming and mobile shopping.

Comparative Study on the Actual Conditions about Hypertension and Diabetes Case Management of the Elderly at the Hall for the Aged and the D Senior's College (D 노인대학과 경로당 노인들의 건강행태 및 고혈압당뇨병 관리실태 비교조사)

  • Yoon, Young-Suk;Kwon, Yang-Ok;Jung, Young-Hee
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study was to provide the basic data for effective intervention of oral health behaviors strategy and to compare the actual conditions about hypertension and diabetes case management of the elderly at the hall for the aged and the D senior's college. The research method was a questionnaire including hypertension and diabetes case management of the elderly and the subjects were 174 of the elderly(65 age over) at the hall for the aged(100) and the senior's college(74). The results of this study were as follows; 1. Hypertension 1)The incidence of hypertension of elderly at the hall for the aged and the senior's college were 32.2%. 2)83.9% of the hypertension cases were initially diagnosed during hospital examination(p < 0.05). 3)Regular blood pressure checks were performed more than one time monthly on 76.8% of the cases(p < 0.05). 4)Blood pressure control was well controlled on 75%(p < 0.05). 5)85.7% of the elderly at the hall for the aged took hypertension drugs daily and 42.9% of the elderly at the senior's college took no drug alternatively(p < 0.05). 2. Diabetes 1)The incidence of the diabetes of elderly at the hall for the aged and the senior's college were 14.4%. 2)80.0% of the diabetes cases were initially diagnosed during hospital examination(p < 0.05). 3)64.0% of the cases did not have blood sugar measuring instrument(p < 0.05). 4. In the quality of life, the thinking of no difficulty in walking and no anxiety/depression was more presented on the elderly at the senior's college than those at the hall for the aged(p < 0.05). 5. The subjective health condition scores were higher on the elderly at the senior's college than those at the hall for the aged(p < 0.05).

Changes of Refractive Correction Value with Different Age Group: A Case for Myopia Control Lens, Single Vision Lens and Reverse Geometry Contact Lens (Myopia Control Lens, Single Vision Lens, Reverse Geometry Contact Lens의 연령에 따른 굴절교정상태 변화에 대한 추적 연구)

  • Yoon, Min-Hwa
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: Changes of refractive correction value in different age group were investigated. Regarding the inhibitive effects against myopia progression after wearing reverse geometry contact lenses and myopia control lenses (MC lenses), the effects after wearing single vision lenses were compared. Methods: We organized children between the ages of six and fifteen into three groups by age, and distributed fifty-seven reverse geometry contact lenses, fifty-six MC lenses and seventy-eight single vision lenses among them to be worn. Group 1 consisted of children aged ten and under, Group 2 consisted of children between the ages of eleven and fifteen, and Group 3 represents all of the study participants. The aim of this study was to learn the inhibitive effects against myopia progression attained by changes of refractive correction value and to verify their statistical significance at twelve months and under, thirteen to twenty-four months and twenty-five to thirty-six months. Results: Changes of refractive correction value by each length of use in Group 3 were as follows. For the age group of under twelve months, participants using the reverse geometric contact lens showed no change, while those using the MC or single vision lens had significant changes (P<0.05) of $-0.36{\pm}0.10$ D and $-0.67{\pm}0.52$ D, respectively. Users of all three lens types displayed significant change (P<0.05), in the age group of between thirteen and twenty-four months, of $0.18{\pm}0.49$ D, $0.60{\pm}0.42$ D and $1.37{\pm}0.72$ D for users of the reverse geometry contact lens, the MC lens and the single vision lens, respectively. There were significant changes (P<0.05) of $0.29{\pm}0.61$ D, $0.93{\pm}0.57$ D and $1.72{\pm}0.78$ in the same respective order as the above in the age group of twenty-five to thirty-six months. Refractive correction value showed changes with different age group. Group 1 displayed significant changes (P<0.05) of $0.29{\pm}0.73$ D, $1.07{\pm}0.59$ D and $1.75{\pm}0.74$ D for users of the reverse geometry contact lens, MC lens and single vision lens, respectively, up to thirty-six months of lens wearing; Group 2, also up to thirty-six months, displayed significant changes (P<0.05) of $0.28{\pm}0.42$ D, $0.75{\pm}0.49$ D and $1.70{\pm}0.84$ D in the same respective order, and changes in refractive correction for the age group under ten years was significantly greater (P<0.05) for the age group of eleven and older. Conclusions: The results found in this study demonstrate that there were no changes of refractive correction value for the case of wearing reversing geometry contact lens up to twelve month or less. MC lens showed less changes in variations of visual acuity for all users which might be resulted in inhibiting progression of myoptia. When both reverse geometry contact lens and the MC lens are wearing for the period from 13 to 36 month, both lens showed less changes in variation of visual acuity for all users. The results suggested that the less changes in variation of visual acuity of both lens had an effect on inhibiting progression of myopia.

Stock Identification of Todarodes pacificus in Northwest Pacific (북서태평양에 서식하는 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 계군 분석에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Jeong-Yun;Moon, Chang-Ho;Yoon, Moon-Geun;Kang, Chang-Keun;Kim, Kyung-Ryul;Na, Taehee;Choy, Eun Jung;Lee, Chung Il
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.292-302
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    • 2012
  • This paper reviews comparison analysis of current and latest application for stock identification methods of Todarodes pacificus, and the pros and cons of each method and consideration of how to compensate for each other. Todarodes pacificus which migrates wide areas in western North Pacific is important fishery resource ecologically and commercially. Todarodes pacificus is also considered as 'biological indicator' of ocean environmental changes. And changes in its short and long term catch and distribution area occur along with environmental changes. For example, while the catch of pollack, a cold water fish, has dramatically decreased until today after the climate regime shift in 1987/1988, the catch of Todarodes pacificus has been dramatically increased. Regarding the decrease in pollack catch, overfishing and climate changes were considered as the main causes, but there has been no definite reason until today. One of the reasons why there is no definite answer is related with no proper analysis about ecological and environmental aspects based on stock identification. Subpopulation is a group sharing the same gene pool through sexual reproduction process within limited boundaries having similar ecological characteristics. Each individual with same stock might be affected by different environment in temporal and spatial during the process of spawning, recruitment and then reproduction. Thereby, accurate stock analysis about the species can play an efficient alternative to comply with effective resource management and rapid changes. Four main stock analysis were applied to Todarodes pacificus: Morphologic Method, Ecological Method, Tagging Method, Genetic Method. Ecological method is studies for analysis of differences in spawning grounds by analysing the individual ecological change, distribution, migration status, parasitic state of parasite, kinds of parasite and parasite infection rate etc. Currently the method has been studying lively can identify the group in the similar environment. However It is difficult to know to identify the same genetic group in each other. Tagging Method is direct method. It can analyse cohort's migration, distribution and location of spawning, but it is very difficult to recapture tagged squids and hard to tag juveniles. Genetic method, which is for useful fishery resource stock analysis has provided the basic information regarding resource management study. Genetic method for stock analysis is determined according to markers' sensitivity and need to select high multiform of genetic markers. For stock identification, isozyme multiform has been used for genetic markers. Recently there is increase in use of makers with high range variability among DNA sequencing like mitochondria, microsatellite. Even the current morphologic method, tagging method and ecological method played important rolls through finding Todarodes pacificus' life cycle, migration route and changes in spawning grounds, it is still difficult to analyze the stock of Todarodes pacificus as those are distributed in difference seas. Lately, by taking advantages of each stock analysis method, more complicated method is being applied. If based on such analysis and genetic method for improvement are played, there will be much advance in management system for the resource fluctuation of Todarodes pacificus.

Korean Sentence Generation Using Phoneme-Level LSTM Language Model (한국어 음소 단위 LSTM 언어모델을 이용한 문장 생성)

  • Ahn, SungMahn;Chung, Yeojin;Lee, Jaejoon;Yang, Jiheon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2017
  • Language models were originally developed for speech recognition and language processing. Using a set of example sentences, a language model predicts the next word or character based on sequential input data. N-gram models have been widely used but this model cannot model the correlation between the input units efficiently since it is a probabilistic model which are based on the frequency of each unit in the training set. Recently, as the deep learning algorithm has been developed, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model and a long short-term memory (LSTM) model have been widely used for the neural language model (Ahn, 2016; Kim et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016). These models can reflect dependency between the objects that are entered sequentially into the model (Gers and Schmidhuber, 2001; Mikolov et al., 2010; Sundermeyer et al., 2012). In order to learning the neural language model, texts need to be decomposed into words or morphemes. Since, however, a training set of sentences includes a huge number of words or morphemes in general, the size of dictionary is very large and so it increases model complexity. In addition, word-level or morpheme-level models are able to generate vocabularies only which are contained in the training set. Furthermore, with highly morphological languages such as Turkish, Hungarian, Russian, Finnish or Korean, morpheme analyzers have more chance to cause errors in decomposition process (Lankinen et al., 2016). Therefore, this paper proposes a phoneme-level language model for Korean language based on LSTM models. A phoneme such as a vowel or a consonant is the smallest unit that comprises Korean texts. We construct the language model using three or four LSTM layers. Each model was trained using Stochastic Gradient Algorithm and more advanced optimization algorithms such as Adagrad, RMSprop, Adadelta, Adam, Adamax, and Nadam. Simulation study was done with Old Testament texts using a deep learning package Keras based the Theano. After pre-processing the texts, the dataset included 74 of unique characters including vowels, consonants, and punctuation marks. Then we constructed an input vector with 20 consecutive characters and an output with a following 21st character. Finally, total 1,023,411 sets of input-output vectors were included in the dataset and we divided them into training, validation, testsets with proportion 70:15:15. All the simulation were conducted on a system equipped with an Intel Xeon CPU (16 cores) and a NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 GPU. We compared the loss function evaluated for the validation set, the perplexity evaluated for the test set, and the time to be taken for training each model. As a result, all the optimization algorithms but the stochastic gradient algorithm showed similar validation loss and perplexity, which are clearly superior to those of the stochastic gradient algorithm. The stochastic gradient algorithm took the longest time to be trained for both 3- and 4-LSTM models. On average, the 4-LSTM layer model took 69% longer training time than the 3-LSTM layer model. However, the validation loss and perplexity were not improved significantly or became even worse for specific conditions. On the other hand, when comparing the automatically generated sentences, the 4-LSTM layer model tended to generate the sentences which are closer to the natural language than the 3-LSTM model. Although there were slight differences in the completeness of the generated sentences between the models, the sentence generation performance was quite satisfactory in any simulation conditions: they generated only legitimate Korean letters and the use of postposition and the conjugation of verbs were almost perfect in the sense of grammar. The results of this study are expected to be widely used for the processing of Korean language in the field of language processing and speech recognition, which are the basis of artificial intelligence systems.

Influence analysis of Internet buzz to corporate performance : Individual stock price prediction using sentiment analysis of online news (온라인 언급이 기업 성과에 미치는 영향 분석 : 뉴스 감성분석을 통한 기업별 주가 예측)

  • Jeong, Ji Seon;Kim, Dong Sung;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2015
  • Due to the development of internet technology and the rapid increase of internet data, various studies are actively conducted on how to use and analyze internet data for various purposes. In particular, in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of the current application of structured data. Especially, there are various studies on sentimental analysis to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity such as positivity or negativity of vocabularies or sentences of the texts in documents. As a part of such studies, this study tries to predict ups and downs of stock prices of companies by performing sentimental analysis on news contexts of the particular companies in the Internet. A variety of news on companies is produced online by different economic agents, and it is diffused quickly and accessed easily in the Internet. So, based on inefficient market hypothesis, we can expect that news information of an individual company can be used to predict the fluctuations of stock prices of the company if we apply proper data analysis techniques. However, as the areas of corporate management activity are different, an analysis considering characteristics of each company is required in the analysis of text data based on machine-learning. In addition, since the news including positive or negative information on certain companies have various impacts on other companies or industry fields, an analysis for the prediction of the stock price of each company is necessary. Therefore, this study attempted to predict changes in the stock prices of the individual companies that applied a sentimental analysis of the online news data. Accordingly, this study chose top company in KOSPI 200 as the subjects of the analysis, and collected and analyzed online news data by each company produced for two years on a representative domestic search portal service, Naver. In addition, considering the differences in the meanings of vocabularies for each of the certain economic subjects, it aims to improve performance by building up a lexicon for each individual company and applying that to an analysis. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy of the prediction by each company are different, and the prediction accurate rate turned out to be 56% on average. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices on industry sectors, 'energy/chemical', 'consumer goods for living' and 'consumer discretionary' showed a relatively higher accuracy of the prediction of stock prices than other industries, while it was found that the sectors such as 'information technology' and 'shipbuilding/transportation' industry had lower accuracy of prediction. The number of the representative companies in each industry collected was five each, so it is somewhat difficult to generalize, but it could be confirmed that there was a difference in the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices depending on industry sectors. In addition, at the individual company level, the companies such as 'Kangwon Land', 'KT & G' and 'SK Innovation' showed a relatively higher prediction accuracy as compared to other companies, while it showed that the companies such as 'Young Poong', 'LG', 'Samsung Life Insurance', and 'Doosan' had a low prediction accuracy of less than 50%. In this paper, we performed an analysis of the share price performance relative to the prediction of individual companies through the vocabulary of pre-built company to take advantage of the online news information. In this paper, we aim to improve performance of the stock prices prediction, applying online news information, through the stock price prediction of individual companies. Based on this, in the future, it will be possible to find ways to increase the stock price prediction accuracy by complementing the problem of unnecessary words that are added to the sentiment dictionary.

A Comparative Analysis of Social Commerce and Open Market Using User Reviews in Korean Mobile Commerce (사용자 리뷰를 통한 소셜커머스와 오픈마켓의 이용경험 비교분석)

  • Chae, Seung Hoon;Lim, Jay Ick;Kang, Juyoung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.53-77
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    • 2015
  • Mobile commerce provides a convenient shopping experience in which users can buy products without the constraints of time and space. Mobile commerce has already set off a mega trend in Korea. The market size is estimated at approximately 15 trillion won (KRW) for 2015, thus far. In the Korean market, social commerce and open market are key components. Social commerce has an overwhelming open market in terms of the number of users in the Korean mobile commerce market. From the point of view of the industry, quick market entry, and content curation are considered to be the major success factors, reflecting the rapid growth of social commerce in the market. However, academics' empirical research and analysis to prove the success rate of social commerce is still insufficient. Henceforward, it is to be expected that social commerce and the open market in the Korean mobile commerce will compete intensively. So it is important to conduct an empirical analysis to prove the differences in user experience between social commerce and open market. This paper is an exploratory study that shows a comparative analysis of social commerce and the open market regarding user experience, which is based on the mobile users' reviews. Firstly, this study includes a collection of approximately 10,000 user reviews of social commerce and open market listed Google play. A collection of mobile user reviews were classified into topics, such as perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use through LDA topic modeling. Then, a sentimental analysis and co-occurrence analysis on the topics of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use was conducted. The study's results demonstrated that social commerce users have a more positive experience in terms of service usefulness and convenience versus open market in the mobile commerce market. Social commerce has provided positive user experiences to mobile users in terms of service areas, like 'delivery,' 'coupon,' and 'discount,' while open market has been faced with user complaints in terms of technical problems and inconveniences like 'login error,' 'view details,' and 'stoppage.' This result has shown that social commerce has a good performance in terms of user service experience, since the aggressive marketing campaign conducted and there have been investments in building logistics infrastructure. However, the open market still has mobile optimization problems, since the open market in mobile commerce still has not resolved user complaints and inconveniences from technical problems. This study presents an exploratory research method used to analyze user experience by utilizing an empirical approach to user reviews. In contrast to previous studies, which conducted surveys to analyze user experience, this study was conducted by using empirical analysis that incorporates user reviews for reflecting users' vivid and actual experiences. Specifically, by using an LDA topic model and TAM this study presents its methodology, which shows an analysis of user reviews that are effective due to the method of dividing user reviews into service areas and technical areas from a new perspective. The methodology of this study has not only proven the differences in user experience between social commerce and open market, but also has provided a deep understanding of user experience in Korean mobile commerce. In addition, the results of this study have important implications on social commerce and open market by proving that user insights can be utilized in establishing competitive and groundbreaking strategies in the market. The limitations and research direction for follow-up studies are as follows. In a follow-up study, it will be required to design a more elaborate technique of the text analysis. This study could not clearly refine the user reviews, even though the ones online have inherent typos and mistakes. This study has proven that the user reviews are an invaluable source to analyze user experience. The methodology of this study can be expected to further expand comparative research of services using user reviews. Even at this moment, users around the world are posting their reviews about service experiences after using the mobile game, commerce, and messenger applications.