• Title/Summary/Keyword: 미래연구

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A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

A Study on the Entrepreneurial Intention of College Students in the Entertainment Industry with Idea Education and Support for Startup Infrastructure (아이디어 교육 및 창업 인프라 지원이 엔터테인먼트 산업 분야에 대한 대학생 창업의도 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Hun
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.19-31
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    • 2021
  • This study tried to identify the characteristics of college students' entrepreneurial intentions in the entertainment industry, focusing on existing literature studies. Based on this, it was intended to suggest realistic educational alternatives for university student start-ups and implications for start-up management to university start-up officials and those in charge of national start-up support policy. Therefore, the implications of this study are as follows. First, technology(item) for idea creation education, which is an essential element in the entertainment industry, how to connect ideas and products, technology methods that can increase content value, and user characteristics education within the entertainment industry will need to be continued. In addition, along with the idea education, it is necessary to increase the understanding of start-up business management such as financing, human resource management, marketing, and operation management, and furthermore, confidence education should be provided so that the possibility of success in an entertainment start-up and a sense of adventure in a new job can be developed. Second, the space and equipment necessary for start-up (club room, student start-up room, entertainment-related equipment, etc.) should be provided centering on the opinion survey of students who are interested in starting a business, and various regulations of universities and government for student start-up should be relaxed. will have to In addition, education for the formation of entrepreneurial knowledge inside and outside of the school, special lectures and consultations by experts, and on-the-spot education, etc., should be made to create more practical entrepreneurial knowledge. something to do. Third, for students wishing to start a business in the entertainment industry, it is necessary to inform their families about the field situation of the entertainment industry accurately so that their children can develop a positive perception rather than a negative perception when choosing a business field. In addition, by promoting various successful cases of college students to their families after starting a business, families should be encouraged so that their children can develop a challenging spirit about starting a business. Fourth, it should be possible to form continuous clubs or gatherings with friends who wish to start a business in the entertainment industry, and furthermore, an opportunity to listen to the opinions of friends who actually started a business through these meetings should be provided. In addition, the meeting and the formation of friends should create a place for discussion about writing a business plan, how to succeed in starting a business, and management of startups, and psychological stimulation activities should be conducted so that each other's will to start a business arises. Fifth, various knowledge related to start-up (methods for securing funds, management of start-up organizations, grasping information about the market in which they want to start a business, etc.) should be cultivated, and how to write a business plan for the various entertainment industry fields they want to start up. You will also need to train them to be practical. Also, based on this knowledge formation, students themselves should be able to respond to risks and changes that may occur in entrepreneurship. Lastly, it is necessary to increase the understanding of business start-up management, and various psychological stimulation activities are needed to make the confidence and fear of starting a business disappear.

Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

Characteristics of Coal Slurry Gasification under Partial Slagging Operating Condition (부분 용융 운전 조건에서 석탄슬러리 가스화 운전 특성)

  • Lee, Jin Wook;Chung, Seok Woo;Lee, Seung Jong;Jung, Woohyun;Byun, Yong Soo;Hwang, Sang Yeon;Jeon, Dong Hwan;Ryu, Sang Oh;Lee, Ji Eun;Jeong, Ki Jin;Kim, Jin Ho;Yun, Yongseung
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.657-666
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    • 2014
  • Coal gasification technology is considered as next generation clean coal technology even though it uses coal as fuel which releases huge amount of greenhouse gas because it has many advantages for carbon capture. Coal or pet-coke slurry gasification is very attractive technology at present and in the future because of its low construction cost and flexibility of slurry feeding system in spite of lower efficiency compared to dry feeding technology. In this study, we carried out gasification experiment using bituminous coal slurry sample by integrating coal slurry feeding facility and slurry burner into existing dry feeding compact gasifier. Especially, our experiment was conducted under fairly lower operation temperature than that of existing entrained-bed gasifier, resulting in partial slagging operation mode in which only part of ash was converted to slag and the rest of ash was released as fly ash. Carbon conversion rate was calculated from data analysis of collected slag and ash, and then cold gas efficiency, which is the most important indicator of gasifier performance, was estimated by carbon mass balance method. Fairly high performance considering pilot-scale experiment, 98.5% of carbon conversion and 60.4% of cold gas efficiency, was achieved. In addition, soundness of experimental result was verified from the comparison with chemical equilibrium composition and energy balance calculations.

Studies on Development Policies for Regional Industry (지역산업 육성정책에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Dong-Soo;Lee, Doo-Hee;Kim, Kye-Hwan
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.467-485
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    • 2011
  • After Korean War, Korea focused on catching up with the world economy by concentrating on some target industries around the Capital Region and southern coastal cities. Thus, the regional disparity between Capital Region and non-Capital Regions increased drastically. At last, when Korea acquired full-fledged autonomy in 1994 in the Civilian government (1993-1998) and experienced the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, local governments were awakened to the notion of region-oriented development, especially for regional industrial development. The purposes of this paper are to introduce regional industrial development policies since 1998 and to suggest some recommendations in terms of how to adjust regional development for industrial policies in the future. In the introducing phase (Kim administration, 1998-2003), four provincial governments requested national funding to raise regional industries that are of strategic importance. At the same time, the central government recognized the need to nurture regional industries to overcome structural weaknesses. As a result, the Roh administration (2003-2008) gave a birth to a systematizing phase. As the ultimate regional policy objective, the balanced national development has been set and the Special Acts, Special Accounts, Committee, and National Plan have been established. Regional Industrial Promotion Project has been carried out very actively during this period. It had a good start albeit idealistic to a certain extent. Therefore, the current government has changed policy paradigm from balanced growth to regional competitiveness along with global paradigm shifts. In order to enhance regional competitiveness, regional development policies have been pursued in more efficient way. Leading Industry Nurturing Projects (LINPs) on Economic Region level, existed Regional Industrial Promotion Projects (RIPPs) on Province level, and Region Specific Industry Projects (RSIPs) on Local Area level have been implemented. Now, it is appropriate to review regional development policies including industrial policies since 1998 and to adjust them for the future sustainable regional development. Because LINPs and RIPPs will be terminated in next two years, the 2nd stage projects are on planning to reduce the redundancies in two projects. In addition, business support program would be reformed from subsiding technology development to building ecological business system. Finally some policy implications are provided in this paper, which is useful to establish the new regional industrial policies for both central and local government.

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Rural Systems Visioneering: Paradigm Shift from Flux Measurement to Sustainability Science (지역시스템 비저니어링: 플럭스 관측에서 지속가능성과학으로의 패러다임 전환)

  • Kim, Joon;Kang, Minseok;Oki, Taikan;Park, Eun Woo;Ichii, Kazuhito;Indrawati, Yohana Maria;Cho, Sungsik;Moon, Jihyun;Yoo, Wan Chol;Rhee, Jiyoung;Rhee, Herb;Njau, Karoli;Ahn, Sunghoon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2018
  • Sustainability science is an emerging transdisciplinary research which necessitates not only the communication and collaboration of scientists, practitioners and stakeholders from different disciplines and interests, but also the paradigm shift from deterministic and reductionist approaches to the old basic. Ecological-societal systems (ESS) are co-evolving complex systems having many interacting parts (or agents) whose random interactions at local scale give rise to spontaneous emerging order at global scale (i.e., self-organization). Here, the flows of energy, matter and information between the systems and their surroundings play a key role. We introduce a conceptual framework for such continually morphing dynamical systems, i.e. self-organizing hierarchical open systems (SOHOs). To understand the structure and functionality of SOHOs, we revisit the two fundamental laws of physics. Re-interpretation of these principles helps understand the destiny and better path toward sustainability, and how to reconcile ecosystem integrity with societal vision and value. We then integrate the so-called visioneering (V) framework with that of SOHOs as feedback/feedforward loops so that 'a nudged self-organization' may guide systems' agents to work together toward sustainable ESS. Finally, example is given with newly endorsed Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Lab (i.e., 'Rural systems visioneering') by Future Earth, which is now underway in rural villages in Tanzania.

A Study on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space and International Law (우주의 평화적 이용에 관한 국제법 연구)

  • Kim, Han Taek
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.273-302
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    • 2015
  • The term "peaceful uses of outer space" in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty appears in official government statements and multilateral outer space related treaties. However, the examination of the state practice leads to the conclusion that this term is still without an authoritative definition. As far as the meaning of 'peaceful use' in international law is concerned the same phrases in the UN Charter, the 1963 Treaty of Banning Nuclear Weapons Tests in the Atmosphere in Outer Space and Under Water, the 1956 Statute of IAEA, the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the 1972 United Nations Conference of the Human Environment were analysed As far as the meaning of 'peaceful uses of outer space' is concerned the same phrases the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, the 1979 Moon Treaty and the 1977 Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques(ENMOD) were studied. According to Article IV of the 1967 Outer Space treaty, states shall not place in orbit around the earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kind of weapons of mass destruction, install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner. The 1979 Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies repeats in Article III much of the Outer Space Treaty. This article prohibits the threat or use of force or any other hostile act on the moon and the use of the moon to commit such an act in relation to the earth or to space objects. This adds IN principle nothing to the provisions of the Outer Space Treaty relating to military space activities. The 1977 ENMOD refers to peaceful purposes in the preamble and in Article III. As far as the UN Resolutions are concerned, the 1963 Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exp1oration and Use of Outer Space, the 1992 Principles Relevant to the Use of Nuclear Power Sources in Outer Space(NPS) were studied. And as far the Soft Laws are concerned the 2008 Draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapon in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects(PPWT), the 2002 Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Prolifiration(HCoC) and 2012 Draft International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities(ICoC) were studied.

Anti-Melanogenic, Anti-Wrinkle, Anti-Inflammatory and Anti-Oxidant Effects of Xylosma congesta leaf Ethanol Extract (산유자 잎 에탄올 추출물의 미백, 주름억제, 항염증 및 항산화 효능)

  • Lee, Jae Yeon;Ahn, Eun-Kyung;Ko, Hye-Jin;Cho, Young-Rak;Ko, Woon Chul;Jung, Yong-Hwan;Choi, Kyung-Min;Choi, Mi-Rae;Oh, Joa Sub
    • Journal of Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.365-371
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    • 2014
  • In the present study, we investigated the biological activities of Xylosma congesta leaf ethanol extract (XCO) using a variety of in vitro and cell culture model systems for anti-melanogenic, anti-wrinkle, anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant activities. First, XCO markedly inhibited ${\alpha}$-melanocyte stimulating hormone-stimulated melanin synthesis in B16F10 cells. Secondly, XCO marginally induced procollagen synthesis in CCD-986SK cells. Thirdly, XCO dose-dependently suppressed lipopolysaccharide-induced nitric oxide (NO) production in RAW 264.7 cells. XCO did not affect cell viability at different concentrations used in this study, indicating that XCO-mediated inhibition of melanin, procollagen and NO synthesis is not mediated by cytotoxicity. Finally, XCO was found to exert anti-oxidant effect. Taken together, these findings demonstrate for the first time that XCO possesses anti-melanogenic, anti-wrinkle, anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant activities, and suggest further evaluation and development of XCO as a functional supplement or cosmetic that may be useful for whitening skin, reducing wrinkles and treating inflammatory responses.

A study on consumers' consumption culture of Panax ginseng -Focused on college students' attitude and purchase intent for ginseng, and related products - (소비자의 인삼 소비문화 -대학생 소비자의 인삼에 대한 태도 및 구매의도를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Siwuel
    • Journal of Ginseng Culture
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    • v.2
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    • pp.71-83
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    • 2020
  • College students are the potential income classes preparing for income activities and are the main consumers of the future that are very important. In order to understand the current state of ginseng-related consumption culture of young consumers, this study wanted to examine university students' attitudes toward ginseng-related products and services in the future, and to find out their purchasing status, satisfaction, and intent to purchase them. In doing so, we looked at the relative influence of the relevant variables that affect the intent of the purchase. As a result, the variables that affect college student consumers' intention to purchase ginseng-related products were shown in the order of their reliability, economy, purchasing experience, subjective interest, monthly income, monthly allowance, pride in ginseng, and age. Of these, most of the variables had positive effects, but the average monthly income, monthly allowance, and age had negative effects. In other words, the higher the reliability, economy, and self-esteem of ginseng, the higher the willingness to buy ginseng, the higher the subjective interest in ginseng, the higher the age, the lower the monthly allowance, and the lower the income, the lower the willingness to buy ginseng. To promote college students' consumption of ginseng products, it is necessary to cut prices for the younger generation, enhance the quality of the products for the younger generation, improve the taste to overcome the negative aspects of rejecting the bitter and bitter taste, and, above all, induce consumers' attention. It is also necessary to expand accessibility through the development of convenient and easy-to-eat products for young people and the expansion of sales outlets. Recently, young consumers are interested in new products they have never experienced before, products that are good to certify because of their unique design or packaging, and retro products that stimulate nostalgia in the past, so they need to promote and provide information related to consumption of ginseng products in this regard. Considering the practicality and convenience of consumers, we propose consideration of personal consumers' taste curation services, which reflect their preference for products that are convenient to carry with them in line with various living environments, and can have synergy with other products.

Feasibility Study on the Fault Tree Analysis Approach for the Management of the Faults in Running PCR Analysis (PCR 과정의 오류 관리를 위한 Fault Tree Analysis 적용에 관한 시범적 연구)

  • Lim, Ji-Su;Park, Ae-Ri;Lee, Seung-Ju;Hong, Kwang-Won
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.245-252
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    • 2007
  • FTA (fault tree analysis), an analytical method for system failure management, was employed in the management of faults in running PCR analysis. PCR is executed through several processes, in which the process of PCR machine operation was selected for the analysis by FTA. The reason for choosing the simplest process in the PCR analysis was to adopt it as a first trial to test a feasibility of the FTA approach. First, fault events-top event, intermediate event, basic events-were identified by survey on expert knowledge of PCR. Then those events were correlated deductively to build a fault tree in hierarchical structure. The fault tree was evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively, yielding minimal cut sets, structural importance, common cause vulnerability, simulation of probability of occurrence of top event, cut set importance, item importance and sensitivity. The top event was 'errors in the step of PCR machine operation in running PCR analysis'. The major intermediate events were 'failures in instrument' and 'errors in actions in experiment'. The basic events were four events, one event and one event based on human errors, instrument failure and energy source failure, respectively. Those events were combined with Boolean logic gates-AND or OR, constructing a fault tree. In the qualitative evaluation of the tree, the basic events-'errors in preparing the reaction mixture', 'errors in setting temperature and time of PCR machine', 'failure of electrical power during running PCR machine', 'errors in selecting adequate PCR machine'-proved the most critical in the occurrence of the fault of the top event. In the quantitative evaluation, the list of the critical events were not the same as that from the qualitative evaluation. It was because the probability value of PCR machine failure, not on the list above though, increased with used time, and the probability of the events of electricity failure and defective of PCR machine were given zero due to rare likelihood of the events in general. It was concluded that this feasibility study is worth being a means to introduce the novel technique, FTA, to the management of faults in running PCR analysis.