• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크분석

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Profit analysis of life insurance products with interest rate options (이자율 보증옵션이 내재된 생명보험의 이차익 분석)

  • Lee, Hangsuck
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.737-753
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    • 2013
  • Interest rate options embedded in life insurance products provide policyholders with minimum guaranteed rates credited to the corresponding surrender values. This paper discusses current low-interest environment and several types of interest rate options embedded in life insurance products. In addition, this paper shows profit structures of the life insurance products and calculates values of the interest rate options under stochastic interest model and the corresponding VaR (value at risk). Finally, some implications are discussed.

Developing an Entropic Drawdown-at-Risk (EDaR) Fluctuation Forecasting Model for Commodity Futures Market Using Entropy-Based Dependency and Causality Network Modularity (엔트로피 기반 인과관계 네트워크의 모듈성을 활용한 상품 선물 시장의 EDaR 변동 예측 모형 개발)

  • Choi, Insu;Kim, Woo Chang
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.370-373
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구에서는 전이 엔트로피 개념을 활용하여 주요 상품 선물의 하방 리스크 지수의 정보 흐름을 바탕으로 한 인과관계 네트워크를 구성하였다. 그리고 구성된 네트워크를 활용하여 금융 시장을 분석하였으며, 또한 정보 흐름의 존재 여부를 바탕으로 상품 선물의 하방 리스크 지수의 예측력이 개선될 수 있는지 확인하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 정보 불확실성의 감소량을 측정하는 전이 엔트로피를 인과관계의 측정 지표로 상정하였으며, 전이 엔트로피 측정 시 발생할 수 있는 유한크기효과(finite size effect)를 조정하는 데 있어서 효과적인 지표인 효율적 전이 엔트로피를 활용하여 정보 흐름 네트워크를 구성하였으며 이를 이용하여 금융 지수 간의 인과관계를 분석하고 EDaR 의 등락 예측에 활용하였다. 그 결과, 금융 시장 지수를 효율적 전이 엔트로피를 이용한 인과관계 네트워크를 활용하여 금융 시장의 복잡계 네트워크 분석이 가능함을 확인하였고, 구성된 네트워크를 활용하여 국내 금융 시장 등락 예측에 있어 더 적은 데이터 열을 활용하여 거의 유사한 예측 결과를 냄으로써 상품 선물 시장 관련 예측의 데이터 열 선택에 활용할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

Portfolio Efficient Transaction Choice Strategies based on the Global Electronic Commerce (효율적 거래포트폴리오의 선택에 의한 국제간 전자상거래방식의 전략적 활용방안)

  • Kim, Ki-Sun
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2001
  • This study discusses some theoretical implications for efficient utilization of the global E-commerce in a world of uncertainty by beginning with measures of risk and return for the global E-commerce, and by moving to risk and return for a efficient transaction portfolio of many risky methods of transaction. Decision rules are developed to show how individuals choose optimal transaction portfolios that maximize their expected utility of wealth. First, the individuals will generally want to allocate positive amount to the global E-commerce, which requires that the expected marginal utility of wealth equals zero. Secondly, the optimal transaction portfolio will be determined by finding the point of tangency between the efficient trading line and the hightest indifference curve in the mean-variance plane. Thirdly, if the global E-commerce is positively correlated with wealth, it must have an expected return that is higher than the risk-free transaction methods in order to compensate for its risk. Fourthly, on the other hand, if the global E-commerce is negatively correlated with wealth, it will have an expected return that is less than the risk-free transaction methods. Finally, the valuation of global E-commerce depends on the degree of individual's risk aversion and the covariance between the expected return of total wealth and the return of global E-commerce.

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Project Risk Assessment Through Construction Sequence Analyses for Industrial Plant Construction Projects (산업플랜트 건설 프로젝트의 주요 공정 시퀀스 분석을 통한 리스크 평가)

  • Lee, Kyusung;Choi, Jaehyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.140-151
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    • 2013
  • In 2011 and 2012, Korean construction firms awarded around $ 64.5. Billion each year from the overseas market in 2011. This contract value accounted for overwhelming portion of total overseas construction contract values, and this growth is expected to continue for the next decade. However, contract scopes awarded to the Korean construction firms mainly involve detailed design and construction phases due to their competitiveness for the construction techniques. In other words, front-end-engineering-design and construction project management are not considered part of core business due to the lack of project management skills and experience. The researchers focused on development of construction sequence model required to improve construction planning and scheduling skills for the Korean construction firms. The model identifies critical work items and the sequence throughout project execution process. In addition, the researchers developed a risk evaluation method by applying fuzzy theory to the critical construction activities for the industrial plant construction projects. Developed methodology will help project practitioners to develop project schedule in a timely and effe ctive manner and evaluate project risks associated with scheduling process for the industrial plant construction projects.

An Exploratory Research on Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology Throughout Success Factor Analysis in Project Financing (PF 개발사업의 성공요인 분석을 통한 리스크 평가체계 구축을 위한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Gun;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.92-102
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    • 2013
  • A Project Financing (PF) is a form of project delivery system that is carried out for the purpose of trying to give help to the development of national economy and the construction industry in order attract private investment. However, in the case of Korea, many PF projects are only taking into account the aspect of maximizing development benefits, and the proliferation of PF results in project failure. In addition, the interruption of business has been one after another in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. These major cause is the result of efforts to block the potential risk of objectively quantifying operations. Nowadays, PF risk analysis in terms of various factors is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the extensive risk elements to classify the cause of affecting the success of the project PF study prior to propose a methodology for evaluating the integrity of the project PF based on this and to provide a quantitative system that can evaluate the business risk. This study identified the factors that affect the PF business success and failure and establish the metrics that can be quantified through existing research and expert interviews. Factors influencing the success of the PF obtained as a result of surveys and interviews in assessing the soundness of the PF development conditions in the future be able to take advantage of, as well as an objective assessment tool to be able to take advantage of the development is expected.

FAIR-Based Loss Measurement Caused by Personal Information Breach of a Company (FAIR를 통한 개인정보 유출에 따른 기업의 손해금액 산출에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong-Gyu;Lee, Kyung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.129-145
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    • 2017
  • This study proposes a methodology to estimate the financial damages by personal information breach of a company and to analyse risk systematically through a case study of a company which experiences private information breach. Using FAIR(Factor Analysis of Information Risk) model, estimate the loss amount and to analyse risk objectively of a company by personal information breach. This study estimates adequacy and importance of corresponding factors applying AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) on each factors for assessing loss amount. By adopting proposed methodology in this study, the person in charge of actual work can assess and prove the loss amount though the latest risk estimation methodology. In addition, the person in charge can select the proper parameters for the corresponding company and can obtain the objective quantitative estimation. Hence it can be reported to the management by accurately assessing loss amount caused by personal information breach.

A Study on Improvement Measures for Internal Controls in Cryptocurrency (가상자산 운영의 위험관리를 위한 내부통제 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Byoung Hoon Choi;JinYong Lee;Sam Hyun Chun
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2024
  • Cryptocurrency service providers and virtual asset operators, built on blockchain technology, face transaction risks such as cyber threats, wallet theft by internal personnel, theft of customers' private keys, and fraudulent cryptocurrency transfer signatures. To ensure secure operations against these threats, their security is validated through the ISMS-P certification. This study to analyze the risks presented in ISO TR 23576, which is specialized for cryptocurrency service providers and operators, in addition to the ISMS-P certification they obtain. The study will focus on the detailed inspection items of ISMS-P and ISO TR 23576 for cryptocurrency service providers and assess their importance. Based on this analysis, the study proposes an internal security control process for cryptocurrency service providers to address the top-priority risks, enabling practitioners to perform security control tasks more efficiently.

Reliability Estimation of Site Investigation by Geotechnical Risk Analysis in Subway Tunnel (지하철 터널에서의 위험도 분석을 통한 지반조사 신뢰성 평가)

  • 김환준;김우성;김영근;이두화;박진우;김갑부
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Rock Mechanics Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2004
  • 본 연구에서는 도심지 지하철 터널을 대상으로 지반공학적 위험요소가 공사비 및 공기에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하기 위하여 잔여 리스크 개념을 이용하여 조사개소의 증가에 따른 공사비 및 공기의 신뢰도를 분석하였다. 신뢰도 분석결과, 지반조사 개소가 증가함에 따라 공사비 및 공기에 대한 위험도가 축소됨을 확인하였으며, 이러한 결과를 통하여 도심지 지하철 터널에서의 지반공학적 위험도 분석의 유용성을 확인하였다.

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Gradational Risk Management in Procurement Phase for Plant Projects (플랜트 프로젝트의 구매조달 단계별 리스크 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Na, Sung-Yub;Moon, Seung-Jae;Yoo, Hoseon
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2009
  • In the plant EPC project, the procurement work can be considered as the most important part that affects the success or failure of project as it has the closest mutual influence in every execution process of the project. Procurement takes up generally 60% ~ 70% of the entire project budget and the current trend of plant EPC project becoming larger in scale and a variety of process technology being applied. So, it is needed to identify the risks that are expected to occur according to the stages of procurement work, namely, proposal stage, manufacturer selection and purchasing agreement stage, expediting the process management of manufacturer stage, inspection stage and logistics & transportation stage. The management of observation and control of the risks should be performed with the response techniques which are 'avoid',' transfer'and' mitigate'.

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Safety Management System of Railway Logistics Based on Risk Analysis (리스크분석에 의한 철도물류 운영기관의 안전경영시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ik-Seong
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.73-91
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    • 2010
  • All activities relate to railway traffic involve risk and that these arise from a combination of the nature of operating activities. Proper management system is required to provide the organizational capability to reveal, analyse and address these weaknesses over time and in reasonably practicable ways, which will determine the rate at which risks can be further reduced. This paper presents a systematic risk analysis approach to safety planning and decision making, informed by a range of risk assessment techniques. An railway organization's safety management system is also presented that shows the approaches taken to minimize the external risks, and identify the shared risks and explain how they will be controlled through collaboration with others.