• Title/Summary/Keyword: 로지스틱 회귀

Search Result 1,771, Processing Time 0.196 seconds

Long-term and Short-term Reciprocity in Parent-Child Relations for Korean Sons and Daughter (세대 간 지원교환의 장기적·단기적 호혜성: 아들과 딸의 비교)

  • Choi, Heejin;Han, Gyoung-hae
    • 한국노년학
    • /
    • v.37 no.1
    • /
    • pp.83-102
    • /
    • 2017
  • Expending on a life course perspective, this study explores the long-term and short-term reciprocity in parent-child relationships in Korean context. Since the reasons for providing filial support are believed to differ by gender, we focused on how a child's gender affects both types of reciprocity. Data were collected from middle-aged sons (N=726) and daughters (N=883) with at least one surviving parent. Logistic regression was then conducted in order to examine the relations between the support a child currently provides to parents and the current or previous support received from the parents. Dependent variables are financial and instrumental support that middle-aged child currently provide to the parents. The financial and instrumental support a child received from the parents within a year are included in the model as an independent variable to assess short-term reciprocity. The level of financial support a child has received during the transition to adulthood process is included in the model as a independent variable to explore long-term reciprocity. Result supports the existence of gender differences in the long-term reciprocity. Daughters provided instrumental support in response to the financial support that they had received from parents during the transition to adulthood process. However, for sons, this tendency was not found. When it comes to financial support, long-term reciprocity was observed neither for the sons nor for the daughters. Both sons and daughters are prone to provide financial support to the aged parents regardless of the level of financial support they had received during the transition to adulthood process. Short-term reciprocity was found both in sons and daughters. when they have been receiving a financial or an instrumental support from the aged parents within a year, they tend to provided instrumental support to the parents. This study shows that the aged parents still fulfill the reciprocal relationship to a certain degree. Secondly, we can conclude that the norm of reciprocity interplays with the norm of filial responsibility in contemporary Korea.

Perceptive evaluation of Korean native speakers on the polysemic sentence final ending produced by Chinese Korean learners (KFL중국인학습자들의 한국어 동형다의 종결어미 발화문에 대한 원어민화자의 지각 평가 양상)

  • Yune, Youngsook
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.27-36
    • /
    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to investigate the perceptive aspects of the polysemic sentence final ending "-(eu)lgeol" produced by Chinese Korean learners. "-(Eu)lgeol" has two different meanings, that is, a guess and a regret, and these different meanings are expressed by the different prosodic features of the last syllable of "-(eu)lgeol". To examine how Korean native speakers perceive "-(eu)lgeol" sentences produced by Chinese Korean learners and the most saliant prosodic variable for the semantic discrimination of "-(eu)lgeol" at the perceptive level, we performed a perceptual experiment. The analysed material constituted four Korean sentences containing "-(eu)lgeol" in which two sentences expressed guesses and the other two expressed regret. Twenty-five Korean native speakers participated in the perceptual experiment. Participants were asked to mark whether "-(eu)lgeol" sentences they listened to were (1) definitely regrets, (2) probably regrets, (3) ambiguous, (4) probably guesses, or (5) definitely guesses based on the prosodic features of the last syllable of "-(eu)lgeol". The analysed prosodic variables were sentence boundary tones, slopes of boundary tones, pitch difference between sentence-final and penultimate syllables, and pitch levels of boundary tones. The results show that all the analysed prosodic variables are significantly correlated with the semantic discrimination of "-(eu)lgeol" and among these prosodic variables, the most salient role in the semantic discrimination of "-(eu)lgeol" is pitch difference between sentence-final syllable and penultimate syllable.

A Study on Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction Based on KTB, IRS and CCS Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Use of Artificial Intelligence (국고채, 금리 스왑 그리고 통화 스왑 가격에 기반한 외환시장 환율예측 연구: 인공지능 활용의 실증적 증거)

  • Lim, Hyun Wook;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Lee, Hee Soo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.71-85
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.237-262
    • /
    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Perceived Social Support Among the Elderly People Living Alone and Their Preference for Institutional Care: Analysis of the Mediator Effect in the Perception of the Probability of Lonely Death (독거노인의 지각된 사회적 지지와 시설 돌봄 선호: 고독사 가능성 인식의 매개 효과 분석)

  • Cho, Hye Jin;Lee, Jun Young
    • 한국노년학
    • /
    • v.40 no.4
    • /
    • pp.707-727
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study aims to empirically analyze the role that perception of the probability of lonely death among the elderly people living alone plays in the relationship between perceived social support and preference for institutional care based on Andersen's expanded Behavioral Model (2002). The subjects (n=676) of this study were the elderly people living alone, extracted from the "2018 Seoul Aging Survey." With "perceived social support" as an independent variable, "preference for institutional care" as a dependent variable, and "perception of the probability of lonely death" as a mediator variable, we conducted a Binary Logistic Regression to follow the three steps of analyzing mediation effect, as suggested by Baron and Kenny (1986). The results showed that perceived social support has a negative effect on the preference for institutional care and perception of the probability of lonely death among the elderly people living alone; at the same time, perception of the probability of lonely death was found to have a positive effect on their preference for institutional care. Lastly, perception of the probability of lonely death was found to partially mediate the effect of perceived social support among the elderly people living alone in terms of their preference for institutional care. Based on these findings, the practical implications of this study can be summarized as follows. First, various programs and support should be provided to the elderly people living alone in order to enhance the level of perceived social support, a factor that has been confirmed to increase preference for institutional care among the elderly people living alone. Second, as the perception of the probability of lonely death was confirmed to be a psychosocial factor of the preference for institutional care, we need to promote education and support for older people living alone to prepare them for lonely death. These efforts are expected to form a foundations for implementing a community-based integrated care system, "Aging in Place," which is the policy direction required for older people care.

Factors Influencing Satisfaction on Home Visiting Health Care Service of the Elderly based on the degree of chronic diseases (만성질환 유병상태에 따른 노인 방문건강관리 서비스 만족도 영향요인 연구)

  • Seo, Daram;Shon, Changwoo
    • 한국노년학
    • /
    • v.41 no.2
    • /
    • pp.271-284
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to derive factors that affect the satisfaction of home visiting health care services and to develop effective community care models by using the results of Seoul's outreach service which is the basis for Korean community care. The population of the study was the elderly aged 65 and 70 who participated in the Seoul's outreach community services 3rd stage (July 2017 - June 2018) and 4th stage (July 2018 to June 2019). 2,200 people were extracted by the proportional allocation method and home visit interviews were conducted on them. Subjects were divided into sub-groups based on chronic disease prevalence, and logistic regression was conducted to derive factors that affect the satisfaction of home visiting health care services. The results demonstrated that the elderly without chronic diseases were more satisfied when they received health education and counseling services, the elderly with one chronic disease were more satisfied when they received Community resource-linked services. In the case of elderly people with two or more chronic diseases, the service satisfaction level is increased when health condition assessment and Community resource-linked services are provided. Regardless of whether or not they have chronic diseases, service delivery time was a factor that increased satisfaction in home visiting health care. And the degree of explanation understanding was a factor that increased satisfaction for both single and complex chronic patients. Home Visiting health care services based on the community is a key component of the ongoing community care. In order to increase the sustainability and effectiveness of community care in the future, Community-oriented health care services based on the degree of chronic diseases of the elderly should be provided. In order to provide more effective services, however, it is necessary (1) to establish a linkage system to share health information of the subject held by the National Health Insurance Service to local governments and (2) to provide capacity-building education for visiting nurses to improve the quality of home visiting health care services. It is hoped that this study will be us ed as bas ic data for the successful settlement of community care.

The Effect of the Shift Work on Drinking and the Mediating Effect of Sleep (교대근무가 음주에 미치는 영향 및 수면의 매개효과)

  • Jeong, Heeju;Kong, Ji-Sook;Kim, Mi Kyung;Kim, Seok Hyeon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.111-120
    • /
    • 2021
  • Objectives : Shift work has been known to cause various health problems by making it difficult for humans to adapt to their natural circadian rhythms. In particular, shift workers tend to complain of sleep difficulties associated with work schedules, and sometimes use alcohol as a self-medication to induce sleep. To date, no clear mechanism has been identified regarding the link between shift work and sleep, between shift work and drinking. This study aims to confirm the relationship between shift work and sleep, and to analyze whether the change in sleep caused by shift work causes drinking. Methods : This study included 11360 people (5704 men and 5656 women) among the Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey data in 2014, 2016 and 2018. The work type between 6am-6pm was defined as day work, and other work types were defined as shift work. Using logistic regression analysis, the relationship between shift work and sleep quality, shift work and high risk drinking, drinking amount at 1 time, drinking frequency were analyzed. In addition, we analyzed whether sleep mediates the relationship between shift work and drinking using mediated analysis. Results : Shift work showed a significant negative relationship with sleep quality in men and women (male OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.11-1.70, female OR=1.26, 95% CI=1.05-1.50). There was no significant relationship between shift work and alcohol in the case of men, but in the case of women, there was a significant positive relationship between shift work and the number of alcohol consumption (OR=1.34, 95% CI=1.04-1.72). When mediation analysis was conducted, it was found that women's sleep quality partially mediated the relationship between shift work and the frequency of drinking. Conclusions : The results of this study suggest that shift work causes sleep difficulties, and in the case of women, drinking can be induced through the partial mediating effect of sleep. Considering that women are more likely to choose drinking as a coping method for sleep problems, more active interventions for female shift workers are needed.

Factors Associated With Suicidal Attempt among Suicidal Ideators of Korean Adults (한국 성인 자살관념자의 자살시도 연관 요인)

  • Yuncheol, Choi;Hyunseuk, Kim;Sang-Shin, Lee
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.127-136
    • /
    • 2022
  • Objectives : The study aimed to identify factors associated with suicidal attempt in Korean adults experiencing thoughts of suicide. Methods : This study analyzed outcomes of suicidal behavior in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2015, 2017, and 2019. This survey was administered by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). The suicidal idea group was divided into individuals who had attempted suicide (n=92) and those who had not (n=831). Complex samples crosstabs analysis was conducted to compare the two groups' sociodemographic, psychiatric, and clinical characteristics. In addition, factors related to attempted suicide were investigated using complex samples logistic regression analysis. Results : The attempted suicide group had significantly higher rates of depression, recent psychiatric counseling, and suicidal plan (p<0.001) than the non-attempting group. In addition, the groups differed significantly in the frequency of binge drinking and smoking (p<0.05). Adjusted multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of a suicidal plan (Odds ratio [OR]=8.46, 95% Confidential Intervals [CI]=4.72-15.00), daily binge drinking (OR=3.14, 95% CI=1.26-7.84), psychiatric counseling within the past year (OR=3.03, 95% CI=1.75-5.23), low income level (OR=2.89, 95% CI=1.17-7.10), and history of depression (OR=2.39, 95% CI=1.29-4.42) were significantly associated with suicidal attempt. Conclusions : Factors associated with suicidal attempt among suicidal ideators in the general Korean population were identified across all sociodemographic, psychiatric, and clinical variables. Assessment of and intervention in suicidal plan, binge drinking, income level, and depression might prevent progression to suicidal attempt among those contemplating suicide.

Success Factor in the K-Pop Music Industry: focusing on the mediated effect of Internet Memes (대중음악 흥행 요인에 대한 연구: 인터넷 밈(Internet Meme)의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • YuJeong Sim;Minsoo Shin
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.48-62
    • /
    • 2023
  • As seen in the recent K-pop craze, the size and influence of the Korean music industry is growing even bigger. At least 6,000 songs are released a year in the Korean music market, but not many can be said to have been successful. Many studies and attempts are being made to identify the factors that make the hit music. Commercial factors such as media exposure and promotion as well as the quality of music play an important role in the commercial success of music. Recently, there have been many marketing campaigns using Internet memes in the pop music industry, and Internet memes are activities or trends that spread in various forms, such as images and videos, as cultural units that spread among people. Depending on the Internet environment and the characteristics of digital communication, contents are expanded and reproduced in the form of various memes, which causes a greater response to consumers. Previously, the phenomenon of Internet memes has occurred naturally, but artists who are aware of the marketing effects have recently used it as an element of marketing. In this paper, the mediated effect of Internet memes in relation to the success factors of popular music was analyzed, and a prediction model reflecting them was proposed. As a result of the analysis, the factors with the mediated effect of 'cover effect' and 'challenge effect' were the same. Among the internal success factors, there were mediated effects in "Singer Recognition," the genres of "POP, Dance, Ballad, Trot and Electronica," and among the external success factors, mediated effects in "Planning Company Capacity," "The Number of Music Broadcasting Programs," and "The Number of News Articles." Predictive models reflecting cover effects and challenge effects showed F1-score at 0.6889 and 0.7692, respectively. This study is meaningful in that it has collected and analyzed actual chart data and presented commercial directions that can be used in practice, and found that there are many success factors of popular music and the mediating effects of Internet memes.

The Relationship between Social Relations and Physical Activity in the Young-old and Old-old Elderly (전·후기 노인들의 사회적 관계와 신체활동 실천과의 관련성)

  • So Youn Jeon;Sok Goo Lee
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
    • /
    • v.48 no.2
    • /
    • pp.103-117
    • /
    • 2023
  • Objectives: This study aims to reveal the relationship between social relations and physical activity in the young-old and old-old elderly. Methods: Data from 2020 National survey of Older Koreans were used, and a total of 10,097 subjects over the age of 65 were included in analysis. The dependent variable was physical activity, and the independent variables were social relations barrier and motivational factors. x2-test and binary logistic regression were performed for data analysis. Results: The physical activity rate in the elderly were 40.8% in the young-old and 29.2% in the old-old. The socio-demographic characteristics affecting physical activity were the young-old elderly were sex, residential area, employment status and household income, and the old-old elderly were sex, age, residential area, education level and household income. The social relations barrier factors affecting physical activity were the young-old elderly were number of close friends, family care, exercise information search and video viewing, and the old-old elderly were household type, number of close friends, participation in exercise education, exercise information search and video viewing. The social relations motivational factors affecting physical activity were the young-old elderly were call with children/relative/friend, participation in sports activity, access time from home to parks, and the old-old elderly were call with children/relative/friend, participation in sports activity, satisfaction with green spaces. Conclusions: It was found that social relations barrier and motivational factors of the elderly are important factors to consider when developing physical activity promotion strategy, and there are also difference between the age of the elderly.