• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.80-80
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• 2017

최근 수문자료에 비정상성이 관측됨에 따라 비정상성 지역빈도해석에 대한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 홍수지수법 (index flood method)은 지역빈도해석에서 가장 널리 사용되는 방법으로 각 지점의 특성을 반영하는 홍수지수 (index flood)와 지역적 특성을 대표하는 성장곡선 (growth curve)을 통해 확률수문량을 산정하며, 비정상성 지역빈도해석의 경우 홍수지수법 내의 요소들을 시간에 대한 함수로 정의함으로써 비정상성을 반영한다. 본 연구에서는 다양한 형태의 비정상성 홍수지수법을 통해 비정상성 지역빈도해석을 수행하고 각 방법에 따른 성능을 비교하였다. 이를 위해 경향성을 가지는 매개변수를 포함하는 비정상성 분포형을 모분포로 가지는 자료를 생성하였으며, 이를 기반으로 다양한 경향성을 가지는 자료들로 지역을 구성하였다. 구성된 지역에 대해 동질성 검토를 수행하여 비정상성 자료들이 포함된 지역의 동질성을 확인하였으며, Monte Carlo 모의실험을 통해 각 비정상성 홍수지수모형에 대한 확률수문량의 RRMSE와 RBIAS를 산정하여 성능을 평가하였다.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.211-218
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• 2018

The evaluation of aid effectiveness at the national level has mostly focused on qualitative evaluation. This paper attempts to quantitatively evaluate EDCF 's support for Vietnam in 1995 ~ 2016 on the economy. First, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of various methodologies that can be used for quantitative assessment: panel analysis based on growth theory, input-output analysis, social account matrix analysis, CGE model, DSGE model, and time series analysis. Using the input-output analysis, we estimate that total output and value added have been generated about $5.9 billion and $1.7 billion in Vietnam, respectively. The increase in income per capita from the support was estimated to have contributed to a 0.21%p reduction in the poverty rate in Vietnam.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.8
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• pp.671-684
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• 2014

Change point analysis is a efficient tool to understand the fundamental information in hydro-meteorological data such as rainfall, discharge, temperature etc. Especially, this fundamental information to change points to future rainfall data identified by reasonable detection skills can affect the prediction of flood and drought occurrence because well detected change points provide a key to resolve the non-stationary or inhomogeneous problem by climate change. Therefore, in this study, the comparative study to assess the performance of the 3 change point detection skills, cumulative sum (CUSUM) method, Bayesian change point (BCP) method, and segmentation by dynamic programming (DP) was performed. After assessment of the performance of the proposed detection skills using the 3 types of the synthetic series, the 2 reasonable detection skills were applied to the observed and future rainfall data at the 5 rainfall gauges in South Korea. Finally, it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) could be best detection skill and DP could be reasonably recommended through the comparative study. Also it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) and DP detection skills to find some change points could be reasonable at the North-eastern part in South Korea. In future, the results in this study can be efficiently used to resolve the non-stationary problems in hydrological modeling considering inhomogeneity or nonstationarity.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.49-60
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• 2018

The multivariate regional frequency analysis has many advantages such as an adaption of regional parameters and consideration of a correlated structure of the data. The multivariate regional frequency analysis can provide the broader and more detailed information for the hydrological variables. The multivariate regional frequency analysis has not been attempted to model hydrological variables in South Korea yet. Therefore, it is required to investigate the applicability of the multivariate regional frequency analysis in the modeling of the hydrological variables. The current study investigated the applicability of the homogeneous region delineation and their characteristics in bivariate regional frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall depth-duration data. The K-medoid method was employed as a clustering method. The discordancy and heterogeneous measures were used to assess the appropriateness of the delineation results. According to the results of the clustering analysis, the employed stations could be grouped into five regions. All stations at three of the five regions led to acceptable values of discordancy measures than the threshold. The stations where have short record length led to the large discordancy measures. All grouped regions were identified as a homogeneous region based on heterogeneous measure estimates. It was observed that there are strong cross-correlations among the stations in the same region.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.1861-1870
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• 2013

A climate change-driven increased hydrological variability has been widely acknowledged over the past decades. In this regards, rainfall simulation techniques are being applied in many countries to consider the increased variability. This study proposed a Homogeneous Hidden Markov Chain(HMM) designed to recognize rather complex patterns of rainfall with discrete hidden states and underlying distribution characteristics via mixture probability density function. The proposed approach was applied to Seoul and Jeonju station to verify model's performance. Statistical moments(e.g. mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) derived by daily and seasonal rainfall were compared with observation. It was found that the proposed HMM showed better performance in terms of reproducing underlying distribution characteristics. Especially, the HMM was much better than the existing Markov Chain model in reproducing extremes. In this regard, the proposed HMM could be used to evaluate a long-term runoff and design flood as inputs.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.98-98
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• 2020

모분포 홍수지수모형은 여러 관측지점의 수문자료를 활용하여 설계수문량을 산정하는 지역빈도해석을 위한 모형 중 하나이다. 기존의 홍수지수모형은 동질지역 내 각 지점의 표본통계량을 통해 표준화된 자료들을 기반으로 설계수문량을 산정하므로 왜곡이나 오차가 발생하는 반면, 모분포 홍수지수모형은 미지의 모분포에 대한 통계량으로 표준화한 설계수문량은 동질지역 내 모든 지점에 대해 동일하다는 가정을 기반으로 지역빈도해석을 수행하므로 보다 정확한 설계수문량 산정이 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 모분포 홍수지수모형에서의 미지의 모분포를 비정상성 GEV분포형으로 가정함으로써 각 지점의 비정상성을 고려한 설계수문량을 산정할 수 있는 비정상성 지역빈도해석 기법을 개발하고 그 적용성을 알아보고자 한다. 이를 위해 우리나라 전역에 분포된 10개의 강우관측 지점을 하나의 지역으로 구성하고 이질성척도를 통해 지역동질성을 확인하였다. 먼저, 각 지점의 모분포를 가정하기 위하여 각 지점의 연 최대치 강우자료에 대하여 Mann-Kendall test를 통해 경향성을 확인하였다. 경향성이 없는 지점의 경우 정상성 GEV분포형, 경향성이 나타나는 지점의 경우 다양한 형태의 비정상성 GEV분포형 중 Akaike information criterion을 통해 선정된 비정상성 GEV분포형을 모분포로 가정하고, 모분포 홍수지수모형을 적용하여 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 대상 지역에 대한 모의실험을 통해 비정상성을 고려한 모분포 홍수지수모형의 성능을 지점빈도해석 및 기존의 홍수지수모형과 비교하였으며, 정상성 지역빈도해석 대비 비정상성 지역빈도해석을 통해 산정된 확률강우량의 비교를 통해 그 적용성을 평가하였다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.4 s.75
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• pp.31-42
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• 2004

This study develops Accident Modification Factors (AMF) of countermeasures with Baysian method which are newly proposed for reducing Roadway-Rail grade crossing accidents. This study proposes a new "Bayesian Analytical Framework" for countermeasure assessment which combines "Subjective" Prior Information with "Logical" based Information. The newly proposed "Bayesian Analytical Framework" consists of the following three steps: The 1st step - Countermeasure Selection, Choice of Participants, Selection of Crashes; The 2nd step-Development of Crash History Manual and Countermeasure Evaluation Manual; The 3rd step-Development of AMFs through sound statistical tests. This study used the Komogorov-Smirnov(K-S) Test to determine whether two unknown distribution functions associated with the two populations are identical. The results of the study are that individual responses did not meet the K-S test of identical distributions. while individual vs. group distributions are identical. This indicates that combining the input of several people reduces the impact of individual subjectivity and assumptions and is important for developing a repeatable distribution to develop sound AMFs of countermeasures for reducing Roadway-Rail grade crossing accidents. The procedures of the AMF development conducted in this study can be used to estimate the safety effects of countermeasures for road segments and intersections, in addition to Roadway-Rail grade crossings.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.677-682
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• 2018

This study evaluated the usefulness of the elasticity score and elasticity ratio in the differential diagnosis of benign and malignant lesion in breast elastography. We performed a retrospective analysis based on the results of core needle biopsy histology. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to confirm the difference between the 5-degree elasticity score and the Fisher's Exact test. ROC curve analysis was used to determine the elasticity score and the best cut-off value of the elasticity ratio for the prediction of malignant lesions. There was a statistically significant difference (p= .000) between the homogeneity of the elasticity score and the difference of the elasticity ratio between the benign and malignant lesion groups. On the ROC curve analysis, the elasticity score and the elasticity ratio for predicting benign and malignant lesion were determined as AUC 0.806, 0.824, cut-off value 3, 4.4 (p= .001). Therefore, the elasticity score and elasticity ratio may be useful in the differential diagnosis of breast mass.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.7 no.4 s.26
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• pp.41-47
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• 2005

Traffic data such as traffic volume, speed, and vehicle Class are very important basic data for the plan and design of highway. Based on traffic data, the future service level of a specific highway and geometry of newly constructed or expended road is predicted and determined. The Ministry of Construction & Transportation has simultaneously surveyed coverage count and permanent count at highways since 1985. Traffic volume survey sections were determined at jointed nodes of highways and jointed nodes of highways and other roads such as freeway and local highway. Volume survey was performed at these sections. The premise to decide these sections is assumed that links between jointed nodes of main highways exhibit similar traffic characteristics. Recently, due to the change of highway geometries such as construction of detour road and installations of traffic facilities such as installation of media, traffic characteristics of the existing traffic volume survey sections was changed. To reflect these changes, traffic characteristics at homogeneous road sections was widely evaluated and analyzed. Using Genetic Algorithms, a model was developed for the evaluation of traffic characteristics at homogeneous road sections. Traffic volume survey sections were then determined through the application of the developed model for current traffic system.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2021.10a
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• pp.658-660
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• 2021

The work within this study develops an algorithm based on the structural similarity index to assess numerically between reconstructed images with a reference image to separate the homogeneity and heterogeneity for diffuse optical tomography. Global geometry and region of interest assessment have been measured to yield the similarity. The results indicate that the mean of structural similarity index shows potential performance to distinguish between visible and invisible inclusion inside the model. Therefore, the structural similarity index may promise to assist the image assessment for evaluating breast structural information.