• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경제위기론

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An Exploratory Research on Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology Throughout Success Factor Analysis in Project Financing (PF 개발사업의 성공요인 분석을 통한 리스크 평가체계 구축을 위한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Gun;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.92-102
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    • 2013
  • A Project Financing (PF) is a form of project delivery system that is carried out for the purpose of trying to give help to the development of national economy and the construction industry in order attract private investment. However, in the case of Korea, many PF projects are only taking into account the aspect of maximizing development benefits, and the proliferation of PF results in project failure. In addition, the interruption of business has been one after another in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. These major cause is the result of efforts to block the potential risk of objectively quantifying operations. Nowadays, PF risk analysis in terms of various factors is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the extensive risk elements to classify the cause of affecting the success of the project PF study prior to propose a methodology for evaluating the integrity of the project PF based on this and to provide a quantitative system that can evaluate the business risk. This study identified the factors that affect the PF business success and failure and establish the metrics that can be quantified through existing research and expert interviews. Factors influencing the success of the PF obtained as a result of surveys and interviews in assessing the soundness of the PF development conditions in the future be able to take advantage of, as well as an objective assessment tool to be able to take advantage of the development is expected.

A Timeseries Study on the Determinants Behind the Changes of Korean Welfare State (한국 복지국가 지출변화 결정요인 분석)

  • Ahn, Sang-hoon;Baek, Seung-ho
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • no.37
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    • pp.117-144
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    • 2008
  • This is a timeseries study on the riving forces behind the changes of Korean welfare state. There are a few previous studies on the determinants of korean welfare state. These previous studies have some limitations in terms of reliability of the data source and validity of the statistical method used. Using the Comparative Social Policy Data-set(CSPD), we try to overcome the limitation of these previous studies. And adapting the time series regression, we examine the hypotheses about the changes of korean welfare state. In this study, four dependent variables are examined: the ratio of public social welfare expenditure to the GDP(WELGDP), the ratio of public social welfare expenditure to the government budget(WELGOV), the ratio of social expenditure to the GDP(SOCX), social welfare expenditure per capita. And independent variables were selected based on the theoretical background on the changes of welfare state. The results of this study as follows: First, the variables based on structural functionalism (industrialization) are the major driving forces behind the changes of korean welfare state since 1960s. Second, the effect of unemployment variable may be reasonably interpreted as reflecting the residual characteristics of korean welfare state. Third, the politics of the left based on power resource theory should be restrictedly interpreted. Ultimately, korean welfare state is still at rudimentary stage where the theory of industrialization is well applied as a driving forces behind the changes of welfare state.

A Servicism Model of the New Technology Industry Enterprise System (서비스주의 기술 산업 기업 연구)

  • Hyunsoo Kim
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted for technology development and industrial and enterprise system design for the sustainable life of mankind. Human society is facing a crisis. As the power of mankind has increased due to the development of nuclear weapons and information and communication technologies, the risk of human society has greatly increased. The value of growth and freedom is increasing due to capitalism and democratic systems, so technological innovation is accelerating, and industries and companies are growing significantly. New technologies and industries can greatly develop human society and put it at risk. This study was conducted with the aim of redesigning technology, industry, and enterprise systems so that humans who live on Earth can be more sustainable for a longer time. It presented a practical alternative for a long-term sustainable human society. It suggested alternatives for what philosophy and methodology should be developed for the whole of humanity and in each individual national society, for developing technologies, fostering industries, and operating corporate systems. First of all, the problems of the technology development system, industrial system, and enterprise system of human society were analyzed. The characteristics and problems were analyzed in terms of sustainability of human society. The necessary and sufficient conditions for an alternative system to solve the raised problems were derived. A system that satisfies these conditions was designed and presented. The alternative system was named as a servicism system as a system based on the service philosophy. The structure, operation model, and implementation plan of the new technology industry enterprise system were presented. In the future, follow-up studies are needed to be concreted at the level of individual countries and human society as a whole.

Convertible Bond Issue Announcements and Stock Price Changes: Focusing on Domestic and Offshore CB Issues (전환사채 발행공시와 주식가격 변화: 국내외 전환사채 발행을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyun-Chul
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.87-106
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    • 2011
  • Using an event study, this paper investigates stock price reactions on Korean listed firms' convertible bond (CB) issue announcements over the sample period of January 2000 to November 2007. This study finds that on the Korean Security market, the CB issue announcements are associated with an increase in shareholder wealth on the announcement date. An information leakage by insider traders is also observable at preannouncement dates. Unlike the prior studies that indicate a prevailing negative effect on the announcements, this paper shows that domestic CB issue announcements as well as offshore ones yield a positive impact on the stock prices. This presents that in terms of stock price reactions to the CB issue announcements, the two CB issue markets show the positively same effects on shareholder wealth for the post-2000 period. For its drivers, this paper suggests that on the Korean market, firm size have negative relationship with the increase in the wealth incurred by the announcements. By contrast, an issue to maturity, a growth opportunity, and a relative issue size make a positive impact on it.

A Study on the Cost Analysis of Service Export - K SME Case of MICE-related Industry - (서비스 수출원가 분석 - MICE 산업 관련 중소기업 사례연구 -)

  • Park, Moon-Suh
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.485-516
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    • 2011
  • Republic of Korea is small nation that is comprised of 0.7% of the world population and occupying just 0.07% of the world territory. Despite this, Republic of Korea once again proved herself to be as the world's major economic powerhouse by becoming the world's 7th largest exporter in 2010. However, the reality is that Republic of Korea is still significantly concerned about the volatile economic nature and anxiety that is spread across the globe since the global depression that began at the end of 2008 and the financial crisis that has been threatening the Euro-Zone recently. This has resulted in the nation reaching the limitation in significant economic growth and limited creation of jobs within the nation and due to such circumstances, the nation is becoming more aware of the fact that she needs to pay more attention on the service sector and service exports if she was to see a more positive economic outlook in the upcoming future. This research is aimed to analyse the cost that is associated with the service export sector, by examining a number of enterprises in relation to the MICE(Meeting Incentives Convention Exhibition) industry which certainly has both direct and indirect influences on the service exports of the nation Further, the prime goal of the research is to encourage the SMEs of Korea, who have substandard experience associated to foreign exports, to intensify and increase service exports and also the goal extends to the degree to suggest appropriate assistance measures to aid these enterprises to achieve such goals. This research is fundamentally designed and based on the literature research associated with the MICE industry and also, this research is premeditated through the analysis of the case of exports to Vietnam. As the result of research, it has been found out that SMEs in the MICE industry and those of in service export sector are reluctant or even feel insecure to attempt any kind of export of their services mainly due to; the lack of foreign market information and also the lack of experience associated with service exports. Furthermore, it has also been revealed that the difficulty to estimate the validity and profitability of service the export is a significant factor withholding those enterprises from attempting any service export to the foreign markets. Henceforth, in order to aid and stimulate service export to the foreign markets by these SMEs (including those in association with the MICE industry), it is imperative to prepare an one-stop service export assistance program which would provide the information associated with marketing, law and legislation, taxation system and financial area in regard to the global markets.

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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

An Analysis on the Reemployment of the Unemployed : Centered on the Applications of Human Capital and Human Capability Perspective (실업자의 재취업에 관한 분석: 인적자본관점(Human Capital Perspective)과 인간능력관점(Human Capability Perspective)의 적용)

  • Kang, Chul-Hee;Lee, Hong-Jik;Hong, Hyun-Mi-Ra
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.223-249
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    • 2005
  • This study examines the hazard rate of reemployment by conducting the Cox regression analysis. In addition, two gender groups are subjected to comparative analysis to identify the effect of the factors related to the human capital and human capability perspective on reemployment. For this purpose, 1,871 cases are selected from the 5th year data from Korea Labor and Income Panel Study. The results of study are as follows. First, the factors of human capital, such as education, appropriateness of skill level, and job tenure hold negative impact on the probability of reemployment, while factors of human capability, such as basic learning ability, health insurance, social insurance, residential area(living in the Seoul metropolitan area) hold positive on the probability of reemployment. It is interesting note that there are different sets of factors that affect the probability of reemployment in the two gender groups. This trend is even more apparent in the case of factors that pertain to human capability. The results of this study imply that the factors of human capability, which stress the socio-institutional characteristics, should be considered as comparably significant compared to the factors that pertain to human capital when it comes to the estimation of reemployment. Also, results of this comparative study teach us that various perspectives, such as dual labor market theory and gender-segmented labor market theory, should be factored in for reemployment discussion as well. In conclusion, this research delivers several significant messages since it introduces the concept of human capability perspective, subjected to few empirical analyses in the past, and also heralds the way for comparative analysis on the impact of the factors pertaining to human capability on reemployment.

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The Limitations of the Privatization of Social Security Programs : the American Workers' Compensation Program Case (산재보험 민영화의 한계 : 미국 산재보험 사례)

  • Cho, Young-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.53
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    • pp.31-49
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    • 2003
  • Neo-liberalism, the most influential ideology in the current world, argues for the commercialization of social security programs and for the dissolution of the interventionist welfare state. From the neo-liberal viewpoint, social services become more efficient and more advantageous for recipients, when provided by the market, not by the state. It is also argued that the welfare of all social members is best secured when the market freely operates without any interference from the state. From the neo-liberal point of view, an argument was raised to commercialize the state-administered Workers' Compensation program of Korea in the mid-1990s. This argument was faced with strong resistances from labor unions and social welfare circles, and has disappeared since the economic breakdown and the restructuring of Korean society during the late 1990s. Butr, such an argument can emerge anytime as the nee-liberal ideology become more powerful. This article aims to examine the neo-liberal argument that the privatization of social security programs, through an increases in efficiency, improves the interests of the recipients as well as the whole society. For this, this article attempts to analyze the Workers' Compensation programs of the USA, which, from state to state, are administered by the state government or by private insurance companies. This study can serve as an effective critique for the neo-liberal argument, if it finds that state-administered Workers' Compensation programs are more efficient than those managed by insurance companies. This article's another aim is to assess the controversies over the privatization of the Workers' Compensation program of Korea during the mid to late 1990s. The controversies were more about which viewpoint is right and, in most cases, lacked empirical evidence. This study shall empirically criticize the argument for the privatization of the Workers' Compensation program.

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Dynamic Changes of Urban Spatial Structure in Seoul: Focusing on a Relative Office Price Gradient (오피스 가격경사계수를 이용한 서울시 도시공간구조 변화 분석)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2021
  • With the increasing demand for office space, there have been questions on how office rent distribution produces a change in the urban spatial structure in Seoul. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a relative price gradient and to present a time-series model that can quantitatively explain the dynamic changes in the urban spatial structure. The analysis was dealt with office rent above 3,306 m2 for the past 10 years from 1Q 2010 to 4Q 2019 within Seoul. A modified repeat sales model was employed. The main findings are briefly summarized as follows. First, according to the estimates of the office price gradient in the three major urban centers of Seoul, the CBD remained at a certain level with little change, while those in the GBD and the YBD continued to increase. This result reveals that the urban form of Seoul has shifted from monocentric to polycentric. This shows that the spatial distribution of companies has gradually accelerated decentralized concentration implying that the business networks have become significant. Second, contrary to small and medium-sized office buildings that have undertaken no change in the gradient, large office buildings have seen an increase in the gradient. The relative price gradients in small and medium-sized buildings were inversely proportional among the CBD, the GBD, and the YBD, implying their heterogeneous submarkets by office rent movements. Presumably, those differences in the submarkets were attributed to investment attraction, industrial competition, and the credit and preference of tenants. The findings are consistent with the hierarchical system identified in the Seoul 2030 Plan as well as the literature about Seoul's urban form. This research claims that the proposed method, based on the modified repeat sales model, is useful in understanding temporal dynamic changes. Moreover, the findings can provide implications for urban growth strategies under rapidly changing market conditions.