• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결정확률 함수

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A Study on the Stochastic Demand Forecast for the Capacity Calculation of Urban Planning Facilities (도시계획시설 용량 산정을 위한 확률적 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jae Young Kang;Jong Jin Kim
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.135-146
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    • 2024
  • This study predicts the means sharing ratio of the urban air transportation (UAM) when the VertiHub of the UAM in the southern western part is built at Songjeong Station in Gwanju. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of the utility function and means selection logit model for each means of transportation, our findings indicate an average mode share of 0.95%, with a variability range from 0.07% to 4.7%. Moreover, 95% of the simulation outcomes fall below a 2.02% mode share. Sensitivity analysis, conducted via Tornado Plot, highlights that the mode share is principally influenced by factors such as the unit fare, cost parameter, basic fare, and the time required for takeoff and landing. Notably, a negative correlation exists for unit fare, basic fare, and takeoff and landing time, suggesting the necessity of setting an appropriate level of fair to enhance UAM utilization.

Evaluation of the Clark Unit Hydrograph Parameters Depending on Basin and Meteorological Condition (유역 및 기상상태를 고려한 단위도의 Clark 매개변수 평가)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Lee, Ji-Ho;Kim, Ki-Wook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.1845-1849
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구에서는 관측자료에 나타난 Clark 단위도의 매개변수를 검토하고 그 변동성을 평가하였다. 강우-유출과정에 영향을 미치는 유역 및 기상 특성인자들을 확률밀도함수로 정량화하였고, 유역의 집중시간 및 저류상수를 호우사상의 특성 및 유역의 조건을 고려하여 다변량 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 이를 Monte Carlo 모의기법에 적용하여 유역평균 저류상수 및 집중시간에 대한 신뢰구간을 추정하였다. 또한 신뢰구간을 좁히기 위한 방안으로 관측된 집중시간 및 저류상수를 Bootstrap 기법으로 처리하였다. 그 결과 유역을 대표하는 유출특성의 결정에는 관측 강우-유출사상의 수가 어느 정도 확보된다고 하더라도 여전히 높은 불확실성을 피하기 힘들다는 것이다. 집중시간의 경우는 그 분포가 상당히 왜곡된 형태여서 단순한 산술평균은 상당히 왜곡된 추정치를 제시할 가능성이 높다. 단순히 관측치를 이용한 경우보다 Monte Carlo 모의기법에 의한 경우 신뢰구간이 2-3배정도 좁게 나타났다. 어느 정도 신뢰도 있는 집중시간 및 저류상수의 추정을 위해서는 최소 10여개 대략 20개 정도 이상의 호우사상이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구의 목적은 주어진 유역을 대표할 수 있는 집중시간 및 저류상수를 결정하고자 하는 것이다. 따라서 본 연구에서의 방법론을 적용하여 관측자료가 존재하는 다양한 유역에서의 집중시간 및 저류상수를 결정하고, 이를 지형인자 유역특성을 고려하여 회귀분석하는 경우 보다 정도 있는 경험식의 개발도 가능할 것이다.

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Determination of drought events considering the possibility of relieving drought and estimation of design drought severity (가뭄해갈 가능성을 고려한 가뭄사상의 결정 및 확률 가뭄심도 산정)

  • Yoo, Ji Young;Yu, Ji Soo;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to propose a new method to determine the drought event and the design drought severity. In order to define a drought event from precipitation data, theory of run was applied with the cumulative rainfall deficit. When we have a large amount of rainfall over the threshold level, in this study, we compare with the previous cumulative rainfall deficit to determine whether the drought is relieved or not. The recurrence characteristics of the drought severity on the specific duration was analyzed by the conditional bivariate copula function and confidence intervals were estimated to quantify uncertainties. The methodology was applied to Seoul station with the historical dataset (1909~2015). It was observed that the past droughts considered as extreme hydrological events had from 10 to 50 years of return period. On the other hand, the current on-going drought event started from 2013 showed the significantly higher return period. It is expected that the result of this study may be utilized as the reliable criteria based on the concept of return period for the drought contingency plan.

Improved Munilla-Peinado's RFID Distance Bounding Protocol (개선한 Munilla-Peinado RFID 경계 결정 프로토콜)

  • Ahn, Hae-Soon;Yoon, Eun-Jun;Bu, Ki-Dong;Nam, In-Gil
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2010.04a
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    • pp.824-825
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    • 2010
  • 최근 RFID 태그들이 근접 인증(proximity authentication)을 위해 사용자의 위치나 상황을 이용하여 통신하기 때문에 위치 기반 공격인 중계 공격(relay attack)에 매우 취약함이 증명되었다. 이러한 중계 공격들을 방지하기 위해 리더와 태그사이의 메시지 송수신 왕복 시간을 측정하는 경계 결정(distance-bounding) 프로토콜이 한 해결책으로 연구되고 있다. 2008년에 Munilla와 Peinado는 Hancke-Kuhn이 제안한 프로토콜을 수정하여 보이드(void) 기법을 적용한 RFID 경계 결정 프로토콜을 제안하였다. 공격자에게 n번의 왕복에서 $(5/8)^n$으로 성공 확률을 감소시켰지만, 저비용 수동형 태그에서 많은 통신량과 저장 공간을 요구하므로 비효율적이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 태그측의 해쉬 함수 연산량을 줄이고, 적은 저장 공간을 요구함으로써 저비용 RFID 시스템에 적합한 효율적인 RFID 경계 결정 프로토콜을 제안한다.

A Light-Weight RFID Distance Bounding Protocol (경량 RFID 경계 결정 프로토콜)

  • Ahn, Hae-Soon;Bu, Ki-Dong;Yoon, Eun-Jun;Nam, In-Gil
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.17C no.4
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    • pp.307-314
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    • 2010
  • Recently, it is proved that contactless smart-card based RFID tags, which is used for proximity authentication, are vulnerable to relay attacks with various location-based attacks such as distance fraud, mafia fraud and terrorist fraud attacks. Moreover, distance bounding protocols have been researched to prevent these relay attacks that can measure the message transmitted round-trip time between the reader and the tag. In 2005, Hancke and Kuhn first proposed an RFID distance bounding protocol based on secure hash function. However, the Hancke-Kuhn protocol cannot completely prevent the relay attacks because an adversary has (3/4)$^n$ attack success probability. Thus, this paper proposes a new distance-bounding protocol for light-weight RFID systems that can reduce to (5/8)$^n$ for the adversary's attack success probability. As a result, the proposed protocol not only can provide high-space efficient based on a secure hash function and XOR operation, but also can provide strong security against the relay attacks because the adversary's attack success probability is optimized to (5/8)$^n$.

A Storage and Computation Efficient RFID Distance Bounding Protocol (저장 공간 및 연산 효율적인 RFID 경계 결정 프로토콜)

  • Ahn, Hae-Soon;Yoon, Eun-Jun;Bu, Ki-Dong;Nam, In-Gil
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.35 no.9B
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    • pp.1350-1359
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    • 2010
  • Recently many researchers have been proved that general RFID system for proximity authentication is vulnerable to various location-based relay attacks such as distance fraud, mafia fraud and terrorist fraud attacks. The distance-bounding protocol is used to prevent the relay attacks by measuring the round trip time of single challenge-response bit. In 2008, Munilla and Peinado proposed an improved distance-bounding protocol applying void-challenge technique based on Hancke-Kuhn's protocol. Compare with Hancke-Kuhn's protocol, Munilla and Peinado's protocol is more secure because the success probability of an adversary has (5/8)n. However, Munilla and Peinado's protocol is inefficient for low-cost passive RFID tags because it requires large storage space and many hash function computations. Thus, this paper proposes a new RFID distance-bounding protocol for low-cost passive RFID tags that can be reduced the storage space and hash function computations. As a result, the proposed distance-bounding protocol not only can provide both storage space efficiency and computational efficiency, but also can provide strong security against the relay attacks because the adversary's success probability can be reduced by $(5/8)^n$.

A Study on the Water Circulation Enhancement inside Harbor Utilizing Wave Energy (파랑에너지를 이용한 항내 해수순환증진에 대한 연구)

  • 오병철;전인식;정태성;이달수
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.209-221
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    • 2002
  • In the present paper, a method which enhances the circulation of harbor waters by using wave energy was investigated. The overflow levee was selected as a coastal structure helping the harbor circulation, and was applied to Jeju-outer-port site so as to estimate its effectiveness quantitatively in probabilistic point of view. It was assumed that sea water influx rate through the overflow levee into the harbor depended upon wave height and tidal level and a functional relationship among them was calculated using the results of hydraulic experiment. The probability distribution of water influx could be obtained from hindcasted wave data and measured tidal elevations at Jeju harbor. The Gamma distribution was appeared to best fit the estimated influx distribution, and the optimal location of the levee was discussed. Finally, water quality purification effect was investigated by computing the contaminant material dispersion according to whether the levee was or not.

Improving Correctness in the Satellite Remote Sensing Data Analysis -Laying Stress on the Application of Bayesian MLC in the Classification Stage- (인공위성 원격탐사 데이타의 분석 정확도 향상에 관한 연구 -분류과정에서의 Bayesian MIC 적용을 중심으로-)

  • 안철호;김용일
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 1991
  • This thesis aims to improve the analysis accuracy of remotely sensed digital imagery, and the improvement is achieved by considering the weight factors(a priori probabilities) of Bayesian MLC in the classification stage. To be concrete, Bayesian decision theory is studied from remote sensing field of view, and the equations in the n-dimensional form are derived from normal probability density functions. The amount of the misclassified pixels is extracted from probability function data using the thres-holding, and this is a basis of evaluating the classification accuracy. The results indicate that 5.21% of accuracy improvement was carried out. The data used in this study is LANDSAT TM(1985.10.21 ; 116-34), and the study area is within the administrative boundary of Seoul.

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Optimum Service Life Management Based on Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis (확률론적 생애주기비용-이익분석 기반 수명관리 최적화 기법)

  • Kim, Sunyong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 2016
  • Engineering structures including civil infrastructures require a life-cycle cost and benefit during their service lives. The service life of a structure can be extended through appropriate inspection and maintenance actions. In general, this service life extension requires more life-cycle cost and cumulative benefit. For this reason, structure managers need to make a rational decision regarding the service life management considering both the cost and benefit simultaneously. In this paper, the probabilistic decision tool to determine the optimal service life based on cost-benefit analysis is presented. This decision tool requires an estimation of the time-dependent effective cost-benefit under uncertainty to formulate the optimization problem. The effective cost-benefit is expressed by the difference between the cumulative benefit and life-cycle cost of a deteriorating structure over time. The objective of the optimization problem is maximizing the effective cost-benefit, and the associated solutions are the optimal service life and maintenance interventions. The decision tool presented in this paper can be applied to any deteriorating engineering structure.

The Risk Assessment for Structures by the Response Surface Method Combined with Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘과 결합된 응답면기법을 이용한 구조물의 위험성 평가)

  • Cho, Tae-Jun;Han, Shocky
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.392-395
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    • 2009
  • 응답면 기법을 활용하여 댐구조물과 같은 사회간접자본 시설물의 파괴확률을 구할 수 있다. 본 위험성 평가과정에서 응답면기법으로 구성한 한계상태 방정식을 유전자알고리즘의 적합도 방정식으로 사용하면, 핵심타입이나 지반종류, 지반다짐정도 등의 입력설계변수의 최적화 과정 속도를 더욱 신속화 시킬 수 있다. 제안된 응답면 기법과 유전자알고리즘의 복합해석기법은 신뢰성기반 최적화프로그램으로 기존의 유전자알고리즘의 수렴속도를 더욱 빠르게 하여주고, 특히 입력변수의 상하한계가 불확실한 경우에도 만족스러운 수렴성을 보장하여준다. 한계상태 방정식의 목표신뢰도 지수를 변화시켜면 해당하는 입력변수의 최적값을 출력하여주므로, 입력변수의 제약조건에 가격함수와 같은 가중치를 벌칙함수로 부여하면 가격최적화 프로그램으로 작용하게 되며, 시설물 운영자에게는 목표신뢰도에 대한 유지관리 기법과 정도를 의사결정 할 수 있도록 하여주는 기능을 가지게 된다. 조사된 많은 댐구조물의 파괴모드가 시간에 독립적으로 시공중 또는 시공완료 후 5년이내에 다수 발생하는바, 파괴모드를 조사하고 중요한 파괴모드인 파이핑 현상에 대해서 파괴확률을 계산하고 최적유지관리를 위한 개선된 유전자알고리즘 최적화 연산을 수행하였다. 기존 댐구조물과 같이 설계변수와 하중의 변동성을 알기가 어려운 경우에 유지관리비용 최소화를 위해서 본 제안 프로그램의 확장된 버젼은 중요한 기준을 제시하여줄 것으로 기대한다.

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