Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Evaluation on the water supply stability of nakdong river basin based on future scenarios

미래 시나리오 기반 낙동강 유역의 용수공급 안정성 평가

  • Choi, Si Jung (Department of Land, Water and Environment Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Kang, Seong Kyu (Department of Land, Water and Environment Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Ryul (Department of Land, Water and Environment Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Kang, Shin-Uk (Strategic Research Group for Korea Water Grid, K-water Institute)
  • 최시중 (한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부) ;
  • 강성규 (한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부) ;
  • 이동률 (한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부) ;
  • 강신욱 (K-water융합연구원 KWG 연구단)
  • Received : 2018.07.31
  • Accepted : 2018.10.30
  • Published : 2018.11.30
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Abstract

In Korea, there are only a few cases that quantitative evaluate the impacts of climate change on water supply. Therefore, to ensure stable water supply in the future, a water resources plan is needed to establish by analyzing the scenarios that take into consideration the various situations in the future. In this study, we analyzed the changes of various situations for the Nakdong River basin, and constructed it for the future scenario. The stability of the water supply was analyzed through the analysis of water supply and demand prospect for each scenario path. We selected the areas expected to experience difficulty in supplying water supply and analyzed the scenarios of future water shortage by region and water sector. Also, the effect of increasing water supply capacity through optimal integrated operation of water supply facilities was analyzed and presented. Analysis of the results shows that there is a difficulty in supplying water due to future climate change experienced in the Nakdong River basin. Therefore it is necessary to prepare various countermeasures in order to mitigate or solve this problem.

최근 국내에서는 기후변화가 용수공급에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가한 사례가 많지 않으며 이와 관련된 다양한 정보를 제공하지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 미래의 안정적인 용수공급을 위해 미래 다양한 상황에 대한 분석을 통한 수자원 계획이 절실하다. 본 연구에서는 낙동강 유역을 대상으로 미래 다양한 상황을 시나리오로 구성하고 각 시나리오 경로에 대한 물 수급 전망을 통해 용수공급의 안정성을 분석하였다. 분석 결과를 통해 용수공급의 어려움을 겪을 것으로 예상되는 물 공급 취약지역을 선정하여 제시하였으며 지역별, 용도별 물 부족 시나리오를 전망하였다. 또한 용수공급시설물의 최적연계 운영을 통해 용수공급 능력 증대 효과도 분석하여 제시하였다. 향후 낙동강 유역에는 기후변화 등으로 인해 용수공급의 어려움이 예상됨에 따라 이를 완화 또는 해소하기 위해서 보다 다양한 대책 마련이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Configuring future scenario paths

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Fig. 2. Procedure of Future water supply and demand prospects (MOLIT, 2016)

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Fig. 3. Reliability of water supply facilities in the future

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Fig. 4. Expected water shortage scenarios of S1 (left), S2 (middle), and S3 (right)

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Fig. 5. Prospect of water shortage scenarios in vulnerable area (2101 basin)

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Fig. 6. Variation of future water shortage scenarios in nakdong river basin

Table 1. List of the GCM models

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Table 2. Future water shortage scenarios for vulnerable areas (Unit: Million ㎥/year)

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Table 3. Effect of increasing water supply capacity through optimal integrated operation

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Table 4. Future water shortage scenarios in nakdong river basin

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