Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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A Study for Continue and Decline of Abies koreana Forest using Species Distribution Model - Focused in Mt. Baekwun Gwangyang-si, Jeollanam-do -

종 분포 모형을 이용한 구상나무림의 지속 및 쇠퇴에 관한 연구 - 전라남도 광양시 백운산을 중심으로 -

  • Received : 2015.02.03
  • Accepted : 2015.06.16
  • Published : 2015.09.30
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Abstract

The present study investigated the habitats of Korean fir trees (Abies koreana E. H. Wilson) on Mt. Baekwun (Baekwun-san), determined the current distribution, quantified the contribution of biological and non-biological environmental factors affecting the distribution, derived actual and potential habitats, presented a plan for the establishment of protected areas, applied RCP 8.5 climate change scenario to analyze the effects of climate change on the future distribution of Korean fir trees, and predicted future potential habitats. According to the results of the study, 3,325 Korean fir trees (DBH >= 2.5 cm) inhabited Mt. Baekwun, and their distribution area was approximately 150 ha. Populations of Korean fir trees were confirmed to exist at an altitude of 900 m above sea level and were distributed up to 1,200 m. Based on potential distribution, areas appropriate for habitation by Korean fir trees were analyzed to be 450 ha, three times the current distribution area, with a focus on Sang Peak (Sang-bong), Eokbul Peak (Eokbul-bong), Ddari Peak (Ddari-bong), and Dosol Peak (Dosol-bong). The forest stands near Sang Peak, the main peak, were evaluated as those with the most appropriate potential for the habitation of Korean fir trees, and populations of the trees tended to prefer the northern slope rather than the southern slope. When climate change scenario RCP 8.5 was applied and future potential distribution was analyzed, the habitats were expected to decrease in area to 20 ha by 2050, with a focus on Sang Peak, and areas appropriate for habitation were predicted not to exist by 2080. Judging from such results, as global warming accelerates, the habitats of Korean fir trees are clearly expected to move from lowlands to highlands.

본 연구에서는 백운산 내 구상나무 서식지를 조사하여 현존 분포도를 작성하고 분포에 영향을 미치는 생물학적 환경인자와 비 생물학적 환경인자의 기여도를 정량화하여 서식지 또는 대체서식지로써 잠재성을 가지고 있는 지역을 도출하고 보호구역 설정 안을 제시하였으며, RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 기후변화가 향후 구상나무의 분포에 미치는 영향을 분석한 미래 잠재 서식지를 예측 하였다. 연구 결과 백운산 내 구상나무는 3,325개체 (DBH >= 2.5 cm)가 서식하고 있었고 분포 면적은 150 ha 정도였다. 해발 900 m에서 구상나무의 개체가 확인되어 1,200 m까지 분포하고 있었으며, 잠재 분포도를 기반으로 현재 구상나무가 서식하기에 적합한 지역은 상봉, 억불봉, 따리봉, 도솔봉을 중심으로 현존 분포 면적의 3배인 450 ha로 분석되었다. 주봉인 상봉 인근이 구상나무의 서식에 가장 적합한 잠재력을 가진 임분으로 평가 되었으며, 남사면보다는 북사면을 선호하는 경향을 보이고 있었다. 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 8.5를 적용하여 미래의 잠재적 분포를 분석한 결과 2050년에는 상봉 주변을 중심으로 20 ha까지 서식지 면적이 감소될 것으로 나타나며, 2080년에는 서식에 적합한 지역이 존재하지 않을 것으로 예측된다. 이러한 결과로 볼 때 지구온난화가 가속화될수록 구상나무는 저지대에서 고지대로 서식지의 이동 양상이 뚜렷해질 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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