• Title/Summary/Keyword: weighted estimate

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Research on rapid source term estimation in nuclear accident emergency decision for pressurized water reactor based on Bayesian network

  • Wu, Guohua;Tong, Jiejuan;Zhang, Liguo;Yuan, Diping;Xiao, Yiqing
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.2534-2546
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    • 2021
  • Nuclear emergency preparedness and response is an essential part to ensure the safety of nuclear power plant (NPP). Key support technologies of nuclear emergency decision-making usually consist of accident diagnosis, source term estimation, accident consequence assessment, and protective action recommendation. Source term estimation is almost the most difficult part among them. For example, bad communication, incomplete information, as well as complicated accident scenario make it hard to determine the reactor status and estimate the source term timely in the Fukushima accident. Subsequently, it leads to the hard decision on how to take appropriate emergency response actions. Hence, this paper aims to develop a method for rapid source term estimation to support nuclear emergency decision making in pressurized water reactor NPP. The method aims to make our knowledge on NPP provide better support nuclear emergency. Firstly, this paper studies how to build a Bayesian network model for the NPP based on professional knowledge and engineering knowledge. This paper presents a method transforming the PRA model (event trees and fault trees) into a corresponding Bayesian network model. To solve the problem that some physical phenomena which are modeled as pivotal events in level 2 PRA, cannot find sensors associated directly with their occurrence, a weighted assignment approach based on expert assessment is proposed in this paper. Secondly, the monitoring data of NPP are provided to the Bayesian network model, the real-time status of pivotal events and initiating events can be determined based on the junction tree algorithm. Thirdly, since PRA knowledge can link the accident sequences to the possible release categories, the proposed method is capable to find the most likely release category for the candidate accidents scenarios, namely the source term. The probabilities of possible accident sequences and the source term are calculated. Finally, the prototype software is checked against several sets of accident scenario data which are generated by the simulator of AP1000-NPP, including large loss of coolant accident, loss of main feedwater, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture. The results show that the proposed method for rapid source term estimation under nuclear emergency decision making is promising.

Development of Optimal Chlorination Model and Parameter Studies (최적 염소 소독 모형의 개발 및 파라미터 연구)

  • Kim, Joonhyun;Ahn, Sooyoung;Park, Minwoo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.403-413
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    • 2020
  • A mathematical model comprised with eight simultaneous quasi-linear partial differential equations was suggested to provide optimal chlorination strategy. Upstream weighted finite element method was employed to construct multidimensional numerical code. The code was verified against measured concentrations in three type of reactors. Boundary conditions and reaction rate were calibrated for the sixteen cases of experimental results to regenerate the measured values. Eight reaction rate coefficients were estimated from the modeling result. The reaction rate coefficients were expressed in terms of pH and temperature. Automatic optimal algorithm was invented to estimate the reaction rate coefficients by minimizing the sum of squares of the numerical errors and combined with the model. In order to minimize the concentration of chlorine and pollutants at the final usage sites, a real-time predictive control system is imperative which can predict the water quality variables from the chlorine disinfection process at the water purification plant to the customer by means of a model and operate the disinfection process according to the influent water quality. This model can be used to build such a system in water treatment plants.

Detrital zircon U-Pb ages of the Cretaceous Iljik, Jeomgok, and Sagok formations in the Cheongsong Global Geopark, Korea: Depositional age and Provenance (청송 세계지질공원 내 백악기 일직층, 점곡층, 사곡층의 쇄설성 저어콘 U-Pb 연령: 퇴적시기와 기원지)

  • Chae, Yong-Un;Choi, Taejin;Paik, In Sung;Kim, Jong-Sun;Kim, Hyun Joo;Jeong, Hoon Young;Lim, Hyoun Soo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.11-38
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    • 2021
  • Detrital zircon U-Pb dating of samples from the Baekseoktan (Iljik Formation), Mananjaam (Jeomgok Formation), and Sinseongri (Sagok Formation) geosites in the Cheongsong Global Geopark were carried out to estimate the depositional age and provenance of the Hayang Group in the Gyeongsang Basin. In the Iljik Formation, Jurassic and Triassic zircons are dominant with minor Precambrian zircons, with no Cretaceous zircon. In contrast, the Jeomgok and Sagok formations show very similar age distributions, which have major age populations of Cretaceous, Jurassic, and Paleoproterozoic ages. The weighted mean ages of the youngest zircon age groups of the Jeomgok and Sagok formations are 103.2±0.3 and 104.2±0.5 Ma, respectively. Results suggest that the depositional ages of the Jeomgok and Sagok Formations are Albian. The detrital zircon age spectra indicate a significant change in provenance between the Iljik and Jeomgok formations. The sediments of the Iljik Formation are thought to have been supplied from nearby plutonic rocks. However, the Jeomgok and Sagok sediments are interpreted to have been derived from relatively young deposits of the Jurassic accretionary complex located in southwest Japan.

Deep Learning Based Group Synchronization for Networked Immersive Interactions (네트워크 환경에서의 몰입형 상호작용을 위한 딥러닝 기반 그룹 동기화 기법)

  • Lee, Joong-Jae
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.373-380
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    • 2022
  • This paper presents a deep learning based group synchronization that supports networked immersive interactions between remote users. The goal of group synchronization is to enable all participants to synchronously interact with others for increasing user presence Most previous methods focus on NTP-based clock synchronization to enhance time accuracy. Moving average filters are used to control media playout time on the synchronization server. As an example, the exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA) would be able to track and estimate accurate playout time if the changes in input data are not significant. However it needs more time to be stable for any given change over time due to codec and system loads or fluctuations in network status. To tackle this problem, this work proposes the Deep Group Synchronization(DeepGroupSync), a group synchronization based on deep learning that models important features from the data. This model consists of two Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU) layers and one fully-connected layer, which predicts an optimal playout time by utilizing the sequential playout delays. The experiments are conducted with an existing method that uses the EWMA and the proposed method that uses the DeepGroupSync. The results show that the proposed method are more robust against unpredictable or rapid network condition changes than the existing method.

Economic Impact of the Tariff Reform : A General Equilibrium Approach (관세율(關稅率) 조정(調整) 경제적(經濟的) 효과분석(效果分析) : 일반균형적(一般均衡的) 접근(接近))

  • Lee, Won-yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.69-91
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    • 1990
  • A major change in tariff rates was made in January 1989 in Korea. The benchmark tariff rate, which applies to about two thirds of all commodity items, was lowered to 15 percent from 20 percent. In addition, the variation in tariff rates among different types of commodities was reduced. This paper examines the economic impact of the tariff reform using a multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Korean economy which was introduced by Lee and Chang(1988), and by Lee(1988). More specifically, this paper attempts to find the changes in imports, exports, domestic production, consumption, prices, and employment in 31 different sectors of the economy induced by the reform in tariff rates. The policy simulations are made according to three different methods. First, tariff changes in industries are calculated strictly according to the change in legal tariff rates, which tend to over-estimate the size of the tariff reduction given the tariff-drawback system and tariff exemption applied to various import items. Second, tariff changes in industries are obtained by dividing the estimated tariff revenues of each industry by the estimated imports for that industry, which are often called actual tariff rates. According to the first method, the import-weighted average tariff rate is lowered from 15.2% to 10.2%, while the second method changes the average tariff rate from 6.2% to 4.2%. In the third method, the tariff-drawback system is internalized in the model. This paper reports the results of the policy simulation according to all three methods, comparing them with one another. It is argued that the second method yields the most realistic estimate of the changes in macro-economic variables, while the third method is useful in delineating the differences in impact across industries. The findings, according to the second method, show that the tariff reform induces more imports in most sectors. Garments, leather products, and wood products are those industries in which imports increase by more than 5 percent. On the other hand, imports in agricultural, mining and service sectors are least affected. Domestic production increases in all sectors except the following: leather products, non-metalic products, chemicals, paper and paper products, and wood-product industries. The increase in production and employment is largest in export industries, followed by service industries. An impact on macroeconomic variables is also simulated. The tariff reform increases nominal GNP by 0.26 percent, lowers the consumer price index by 0.49 percent, increases employment by 0.24 percent, and worsens the trade balance by 480 million US dollars, through a rise in exports of 540 million US dollars and a rise in imports of 1.02 billion US dollars.

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Temporal and Spatial Variability of the Middle and Lower Tropospheric Temperatures from MSU and ECMWF (MSU와 ECMWF에서 유도된 중간 및 하부 대류권 온도의 시 ${\cdot}$ 공간 변동)

  • Yoo, Jung-Moon;Lee, Eun-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.503-524
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    • 2000
  • Intercomparisons between four kinds of data have been done to estimate the accuracy of satellite observations and model reanalysis for middle and lower tropospheric thermal state over regional oceans. The data include the Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) Channel 2 (Ch2) brightness temperatures of NOAA satellites and the vertically weighted corresponding temperature of ECMWF GCM (1980-93). The satellite data for midtropospheric temperatures are MSU2 (1980-98) in nadir direction and SC2 (1980-97) in multiple scans, and for lower tropospheric temperature SC2R (1980-97). MSU2 was derived in this study while SC2 and SC2R were described in Spencer and Christy (1992a, 1992b). Temporal correlations between the above data were high (r${\ge}$0.90) in the middle and high latitudes, but low(r${\sim}$0.65) over the low latitude and more convective regions. Their values with SC2R which included the noises due to hydrometeors and surface emission were conspicuously low. The reanalysis shows higher correlation with SC2 than with MSU2 partially because of the hydrometeors screening. SC2R in monthly climatological anomalies was more sensitive to surface thermal condition in northern hemisphere than MSU2 or SC2. The first EOF mode for the monthly mean data of MSU and ECMWF shows annual cycle over most regions except the tropics. The mode in MSU2 over the Pacific suggests the east-west dipole due to the Walker circulation, but this tendency is not clear in other data. In the first and second modes for the Ch2 anomalies over most regions, the MSU and ECMWF data commonly indicate interannual variability due to El Ni${\tilde{n}$o and La Ni${\tilde{n}$a. The substantial disagreement between observations and model reanalysis occurs over the equatorial upwelling region of the western Pacific, suggesting uncertainties in the model parameterization of atmosphere-ocean interaction.

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Comparison of Three Kinds of Methods on Estimation of Forest Carbon Stocks Distribution Using National Forest Inventory DB and Forest Type Map (국가산림자원조사 DB와 임상도를 이용한 산림탄소저장량 공간분포 추정방법 비교)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Min;Roh, Young-Hee;Kim, Eun-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.69-85
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    • 2014
  • Carbon stocks of NFI plots can be accurately estimated using field survey information. However, an accurate estimation of carbon stocks in other unsurveyed sites is very difficult. In order to fill this gap, various spatial information can be used as an ancillary data. In South Korea, there is the 1:5,000 forest type map that was produced by digital air-photo interpretation and field survey. Because this map contains very detailed forest information, it can be used as the high-quality spatial data for estimating carbon stocks. In this study, we compared three upscaling methods based on the 1:5,000 forest type map and 5th national forest inventory data. Map algebra(method 1), RK(Regression Kriging)(method 2), and GWR(Geographically Weighted Regression)(method 3) were applied to estimate forest carbon stock in Chungcheong-nam Do and Daejeon metropolitan city. The range of carbon stocks from method 2(1.39~138.80 tonC/ha) and method 3(1.28~149.98 tonC/ha) were more similar to that of previous method(1.56~156.40 tonC/ha) than that of method 1(0.00~93.37 tonC/ha). This result shows that RK and GWR considering spatial autocorrelation can show spatial heterogeneity of carbon stocks. We carried out paired t-test for carbon stock data using 186 sample points to assess estimation accuracy. As a result, the average carbon stocks of method 2 and field survey method were not significantly different at p=0.05 using paired t-test. And the result of method 2 showed the lowest RMSE. Therefore regression kriging method is useful to consider spatial variations of carbon stocks distribution in rugged terrain and complex forest stand.

The Injury and its Related Factors in the Elderly Using the Data of 2008 Community Health Survey (2008 지역사회 건강조사 자료를 이용한 노인의 손상 관련요인)

  • Kwon, Yu-Jin;Ryu, So-Yeon;Shin, Seung-Ok;Chun, In-Ae;Park, Moon-Sook;Shim, Jae-Soon
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2014
  • Objective: The objectives were to estimate the rate of the injury in the elderly over the past year and to identify factors related to injury in the elderly in South Korea. Method: Using data from the 2008 Community Health Survey, 43,049 elderly persons, aged 65 years and older, were selected as study subjects. Their experience of injury during the past year and other variables, including socio-demographic factors, health-related factors, and diagnosed chronic diseases, were used. The chi-squared test and multiple logistic regression analysis with weighted analysis were conducted and statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Result: The rate of injury in the elderly during the past year was 5.1%. The most common types of the injury were falling/slipping down and traffic accidents. Factors related to injury in the elderly were living alone, current drinking, depression, poor self-rated health, stroke, and osteoporosis. Living alone (odds ratio 1.23, 95% CI: 1.05-1.45), current drinkers (OR 1.19, 95% CI: 1.05-1.35), poor self-rated health (OR 1.72, 95% CI: 1.43-2.08), depression (OR 1.23, 95% CI: 1.17-1.68), and history of stroke (OR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.17-1.68), and history of osteoporosis (OR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.26-1.66) were related to an increased risk of injury. Conclusions: Intervention programs that consider the risk factors related to injury should be developed and implemented to decrease and prevent injuries in the elderly.

Smoking Patterns, Oral Health Behavior and Perception of the South Korean Army (육군의 복무 상황에 따른 흡연 양상과 구강보건행태 및 인식)

  • Jang, Sun-Ok;Kim, Yoon-Hee;Kang, Jung-Yun;Ko, Min-Seo;Kim, Bo-Yon;Park, Ji-Hae;Shim, Seo-Youn;Kim, Sang-Hoon;Chung, Won-Gyun
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate smoking patterns, oral health behavior and perception of dental healthcare of military personnel in the South Korea Army. All 367 subjects were surveyed by the structured questionnaires with convenience sampling method. The questionnaires were consisting of 22 items. Depending on the conditions of military training, the distribution and differences of smoking patterns and oral behaviors were evaluated by frequency test, Weighted Kappa, Paired t-test and ANOVA. The differences of oral health perception on smoking were demonstrated by Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square test. In addition, Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) was used to estimate the effects of oral behavior for the conditions of military training and smoking. The number of cigarette during military training period was similar to that during non-military training (p=0.109). The perception of smokers such as smoking effect on oral health, oral health and systemic health, and need of education for smoking cessation was significantly lower than non-smokers (p=0.0095, p=0.0007, and p<0.0001). The probability that toothbrush frequency per day was only one was associated with higher during military training period than non-military training (OR=9.29, 95% CI 5.05-17.07). Moreover, the probability that hours of toothbrush were less than one minute was associated with higher during military training than non-military training (OR=2.19, 95% CI 1.78-2.71). To improve knowledge, attitude, and behavior of oral health for the members, the army needs to develop oral health education and tobacco cessation programs. In particular, motivation and practice for oral health care are required to improve poor oral health behavior during the military training.

Radiation Dose during Transmission Measurement in Whole Body PET/CT Scan (전신 PET/CT 영상 획득 시 투과 스캔에서의 방사선 선량)

  • Son Hye-Kyung;Lee Sang-Hoon;Nam So-Ra;Kim Hee-Joung
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the radiation doses during CT transmission scan by changing tube voltage and tube current, and to estimate the radiation dose during our clinical whole body $^{137}Cs$ transmission scan and high quality CT scan. Radiation doses were evaluated for Philips GEMINI 16 slices PET/CT system. Radiation dose was measured with standard CTDI head and body phantoms in a variety of CT tube voltage and tube current. A pencil ionization chamber with an active length of 100 mm and electrometer were used for radiation dose measurement. The measurement is carried out at the free-in-air, at the center, and at the periphery. The averaged absorbed dose was calculated by the weighted CTDI ($CTDI_w=1/3CTDI_{100,c}+2/3CTDI_{100,p}$) and then equivalent dose were calculated with $CTDI_w$. Specific organ dose was measured with our clinical whole body $^{137}Cs$ transmission scan and high quality CT scan using Alderson phantom and TLDs. The TLDs used for measurements were selected for an accuracy of ${\pm}5%$ and calibrated in 10 MeV X-ray radiation field. The organ or tissue was selected by the recommendations of ICRP 60. The radiation dose during CT scan is affected by the tube voltage and the tube current. The effective dose for $^{137}Cs$ transmission scan and high qualify CT scan are 0.14 mSv and 29.49 mSv, respectively. Radiation dose during transmission scan in the PET/CT system can measure using CTDI phantom with ionization chamber and anthropomorphic phantom with TLDs. further study need to be peformed to find optimal PET/CT acquisition protocols for reducing the patient exposure with same image qualify.

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