• Title/Summary/Keyword: valuation model

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A Study on Valuation of Foreign Real Estate Investment using Real Option (실물옵션을 이용한 해외 부동산 투자 가치평가 연구)

  • Gu, Seung-Hwan;Ping, Wang;Jang, Seong Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.5465-5475
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    • 2013
  • In this study, when to invest in real estate abroad, to present a real option in the way of decision-making. Thus, by using the binomial option model of one of the real thing and DCF, we compared the choice of real estate investment in China and South Korea. Research concerns the real estate market of Shanghai and Seoul, Analyzed the data between 2001-2009. Results were calculated NPV investment period (Net Present Value), Seoul appears in 435.44, Shanghai was 398.26. Investment decision by NPV method will select Seoul. However, as a result of calculating the value using the real option, it was found that for Seoul appear in 615.4, Shanghai has been shown to 626.1, and is suitable for investment in Shanghai. Assuming on the basis of this, that it has invested in practice, and compare the results, Seoul is intended for since 2010, real estate prices fell to 2013 currently, damage has occurred, profit's occurred Shanghai. This ensures that when making decisions in real estate investment and to use the real option than the existing DCF is appropriate.

A Study on the Efficiency of KTB Forward Markets (국채선도금리(Forward rate)의 효율성(Efficiency)에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Gyu-Hyun;Hong, Chung-Hyo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.189-212
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    • 2005
  • This study examines the interactions between KTB spot and futures markets using the daily prices from March 4, 2002 to January 31, 2005. We use Granger causality test, impulse Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition through vector autoregressive analysis (VAR). However, considering the long-term relationships between the level variables of KTB spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. The main results are as follows. According to the results of Granger-causality test and impulse response analysis, we find that the yields of KTB forward have a great influence on the change of KTB spot but not vice versa. In terms of volatility analysis, there is no inter-dependence between KTB forward and spot markets. In the variance decomposition analysis we find that the short-term KTB forward has much more impact on the KTB spot market than the long-term KTB forward does. We think these results are meaningful for bond investors who are in charge of capital asset pricing valuation, risk management and international portfolio management.

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Valuing Non-market Benefits of Water Quality Improvements in Paldang Reservoir and Han River : A Choice Experiments Study (팔당호 및 한강 수질개선의 비시장가치 측정 - 속성가치선택법을 이용하여 -)

  • Kim, Yong-Joo;Yoo, Young Seong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.337-379
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    • 2005
  • This choice experiments study values the non-market benefits of water quality improvements in Paldang Reservoir and Han River, located in Korea. A fractional factorial orthogonal design was used to produce four different choice sets per respondent, before employing choice examples to screen out irrational responses. The panel mixed logit model (with normal distributions for the attributes) fit the data best, indicating that allowing for both heterogeneous preferences across households and correlation between repeated choices may represent actual choice behaviors best of all the estimated models. The significant standard deviations of the random attributes suggest that the taste for each attribute may vary considerably in the population. The annual benefits to the Seoul Metropolitan area for a small (large) enhancement of the clarity of water, a gradual removal of unpleasant waters, and a gradual improvement in biodiversity, were estimated to be some 1.5 trillion (1.7 trillion) Won, 2 trillion Won, and 1.7 trillion Won, respectively, with 1.8~2.6 trillion Won for at least two of them occurring together. The study also discusses potential biases germane to choice experiments studies of this type.

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An Alternative Improved-Layout of Rural House Plot (농촌주택의 주거 공간구조 개선방안)

  • 박장혁
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.54-63
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    • 1999
  • Considering that rural village had evolved through a long-sustained effort of harmnization with nature, there should be the wisdom not only to reflect the level of rural resident's housing demand, but also to conserve the traditional characteristics of high-valuation in the modern rural housing. In Korea , standard design proposals of rural houses had been made public three times ; in 1972 , 1984 and 1995. so , firstly, this study analysed the inner-space layouts of design proposals mentioned above, from which changes and problems in the past housing design were derived. And also, through, the positive acceptance of residents' opinion living inthe houses built by standard design proposals in 1970 ~1980's, improved design principles and an alternative model were proposed , finally. The inner-space structed of standard design proposals in 1970s was originated from small-scaled and low-priced one, basically under the " open system". In 1980s, the basic design principle changed to the 'closed system' in which the living room being the focus of indoor family life, and , in 1990s, progressively, therural housing developed to the high qualified type by the spatial enlargement and with increased equipements. However, this structural change of rural house brought about the problem of functional separatioon between farming and daily living activities. In details, limited spaces of multipurpose spaces and sanitary facility would be mentioned as problems for improvement. conclusively in this study, newoly arranged "open system" was recommended , as a basic design principle for theinner space structure formation of rural house, which easily links the constituent inner-house spaces to outer one. Based on this principle, the detailed design criterial was proposed as follows ; 1. The living room be directly linked to the front-yard and centrally placed, the addtional space of which could be secured for the special family events by the flexibleuse of its adjacent room or by the housing of male quarters(separated from main building quarter). 2. The kitchen also be directly linked to side-yard and to livng room , for the convenience of farming activities and the shortening of path flow housewife. 3. The expanded toilet-and-bathroom be placed in the directly connected left-hand side to the living room and also be allowed access through multipurpose spaces to out door. 4. The multipurpose spaces be directly connected to the kitchen and the toilet and-bathroom , of which function would be for undressing of working clothes, quickwashing and ordinary working.nd ordinary working.

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Pilot Study on the Typhoon for the Meteorological Information Application and Disaster Prevention (기상정보 활용 및 방재를 위한 태풍 사례 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Kil;Jung, Woo-Sik;Choi, Hyo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.7 no.1 s.24
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2007
  • It is very difficult to forecast accurately a damage from the natural disaster which occurs frequently due to the climate change. When the significant weather event is forecast, it will be able to minimize a damage with the suitable prevention action. But 2000's our country meterological disaster damage is a several trillion won. Therefore, this paper analyzes Korea Meterological Administration, Japan Meterological Agency, television and newspaper have reported, information substance, transmission system, an ex post facto valuation about typhoon Nabi between september $5{\sim}7$ in 2005 and heavy rainfall in 1998 at Japan. Through the investigation, we want to present basic data order to rises the application effect of disaster prevention meterological information. We think KMA must present many information report to promote a people's understanding about the meterological information and the serious disaster situation. Also the disaster damage estimation model development is necessary, which forecasts the accurate damage scale due to the weather event, such as typhoon, heavy rainfall, strong wind. And also we think the KMA, National Emergency Management Agency, related agency, television and newspaper must positive reports the contents which is suitable to disaster response phases and an ex post facto examination. Then it grasps the problem of disaster prevention meterological information and must improve effectively.

A Study on the Economic Efficiency of Capital Market (자본시장(資本市場)의 경제적(經濟的) 효율성(效率性)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Nam, Soo-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.55-75
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    • 1986
  • This article is to analyse the economic efficiency of capital market, which plays a role of resource allocation in terms of financial claims such as stock and bond. It provides various contributions to the welfare theoretical aspects of modern capital market theory. The key feature that distinguishes the theory described here from traditional welfare theory is the presence of uncertainty. Securities has time dimensions and the state and outcome of the future are really uncertain. This problem resulting from this uncertainty can be solved by complete market, but it has a weak power to explain real stock market. Capital Market is faced with the uncertainity because it is a kind of incomplete market. Individuals and firms in capital market made their consumption-investment decision by their own criteria, i. e. the maximization of expected utility form intertemporal consumption and the maximization of the market value of firm. We noted that allocative decisions that had to be made in the economy could be naturally subdivided into two groups. One set of decisions concerned the allocation of first-period resources among consumption $C_i$, investment in risky firms $I_j$, and riskless investment M. The other decisions concern the distribution among individuals of income available in the second period $Y_i(\theta)$. Corresponing to this grouping, the theoretical analysis of efficiency has also been dichotomized. The optimality of the distribution of output in the second period is distributive efficiency" and the optimality of the allocation of first-period resources is 'the efficiency of investment'. We have found in the distributive efficiency that the conditions for attainability is the same as the conditions for market optimality. The necessary and sufficient conditions for attainability or market optimality is that (1) all utility functions are such that -$\frac{{U_i}^'(Y_i)}{{U_i}^"(Y_i)}={\mu}_i+{\lambda}Y_i$-linear risk tolerance function where the coefficients ${\mu}_i$ and $\lambda$ are independent of $Y_i$, and (2) there are homogeneous expectations, i. e. ${\Large f}_i(\theta)={\Large f}(\theta)$ for every i. On the other hand, the efficiency of investment has disagreement about optimal investment level. The investment level for market rule will not generally lead to Pareto-optimal allocation of investment. This suboptimality is caused by (1)the difference of Diamond's decomposable production function and mean-variance valuation model and (2) the selection of exelusive investment or competitive investment. In conclusion, this article has made an analysis of conditions and processes of Pareto-optimal allocation of resources in capital marker and tried to connect with significant issues in modern finance.

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Ad Planning Model by Comparison Challenge Approach in the e-Marketplace (e-Marketplace에서의 비교도전에 의한 광고계획 모델)

  • 이재규;이재원
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.137-153
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    • 2003
  • Comparison shopping is the most popular functionality in the e-Marketplace. Most of their revenue has been generated kent the Internet advertisement, but the ad earning was declined as the ad costing per action method widespread. Seller less familiar to the customer shrinks from chances for advertising and exposing their products. So, we need an efficient methodology subject to the seller's ad budget and other constraints, and it also has to increase comparison broker's earning in the e-Marketplace. Our research proposed and developed an ad planning methodology using comparison challenge approach which can be applied by 3$^{rd}$ party comparison brokers. Comparison challenge planning is organized with challenge policy of competitor level, product level and specification level. With that policies and basic challenge propositions, we measure the quantified value of functional distance between the specifications of my product and competitor's product. My product challenges the comparison using the comparative ad format to the similar but inferior competitor's product based on quantified valuation. Comparison challenge planning system has two phases of comparative value generation and optimization. We developed a prototype system and applied it to the desktop PC market of five major manufacturers. Our performance was emphasized by comparing to other comparative ad methods such as random display method and minimum distance method..

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Development of Analysis Model for R&D Environment Change in Search of the Weak Signal (Weak Signal 탐색을 위한 연구개발 환경변화 분석모델 개발)

  • Hong, Sung-Wha;Kim, You-Eil;Bae, Kuk-Jin;Park, Young-Wook;Park, Jong-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.189-211
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    • 2009
  • The importance of searching the weak signal has been increasingly recognized to cope with rapidly changing circumstances as an environmental analysis technique. This study proposed the NEST process for the searching for the weak signal. The NEST (New & Emerging Signals of Trends) is a micro environmental analysis process based on both quantitative and qualitative method. For this, the weak signal Searching Board is developed and traditional methods as global monitoring, trend analysis, brainstorming and delphi method are implemented to NEST. The NEST process is consists of three stage modules; the global monitoring stage in search of seeds information related to the environmental change, the weak signal analysis stage using the weak signal Tracking Board, and the delphi valuation stage for objectifying the final result. The NEST provides the weak signal of the promising technology which can bring new paradigm and the Up-Coming Trends which can lead new trend in the future. These outputs can be used to select promising technology from firm level to national level. The NEST system can be effectively operated as well as in small group so that small and medium innovative firms can develop and execute their own NEST process individually.

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Case Studies on the Failure of Commercialization of Technology (기술사업화 실패 사례연구)

  • Kim, Chan-Ho;Ko, Chang-Ryong;Seol, Sung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.203-223
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    • 2012
  • This study aimed to identify the factors of failure in cases where there was feasibility but was not successful in commercializing technology. For the study, 92 feasibility reports for new technologies were collected, and among these 4 studies that showed definite failure in commercialization of technology were analyzed in depth. Further analysis was based the factors pointed out by previous frameworks such as 1) discussion on success or failure in commercialization of technology, 2) that of venture company, and 3) valuation of technology studies. Previous studies pointed out success and failure factors as lack of funding, uncontrollable accidents, managing ability, inability for mass production and so forth, which had little difference to the pre-feasible evaluation of four cases. However, real reason was the lack of understanding technologies such as composition of technologies, production technologies required by stages, and lack of understanding of floor technologies. The misunderstandings were occurred regardless of CEO's experience and expertise. We did not touch the evaluation model of pre-feasibility studies, although we dealt with the failure of the pre-studies. The reason we do not generalize the results of this study is the fact that we dealt with only small cases.

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Modelling protection behaviour towards micronutrient deficiencies: Case of iodine biofortified vegetable legumes as health intervention for school-going children

  • Mogendi, Joseph Birundu;De Steur, Hans;Gellynck, Xavier;Makokha, Anselimo
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.56-66
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    • 2016
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Despite successes recorded in combating iodine deficiency, more than 2 billion people are still at risk of iodine deficiency disorders. Rural landlocked and mountainous areas of developing countries are the hardest hit, hence the need to explore and advance novel strategies such as biofortification. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We evaluated adoption, purchase, and consumption of iodine biofortified vegetable legumes (IBVL) using the theory of protection motivations (PMT) integrated with an economic valuation technique. A total of 1,200 participants from three land-locked locations in East Africa were recruited via multi-stage cluster sampling, and data were collected using two, slightly distinct, questionnaires incorporating PMT constructs. The survey also elicited preferences for iodine biofortified foods when offered at a premium or discount. Determinants of protection motivations and preferences for iodine biofortified foods were assessed using path analysis modelling and two-limit Tobit regression, respectively. RESULTS: Knowledge of iodine, iodine-health link, salt iodization, and biofortification was very low, albeit lower at the household level. Iodine and biofortification were not recognized as nutrient and novel approaches, respectively. On the other hand, severity, fear, occupation, knowledge, iodine status, household composition, and self-efficacy predicted the intention to consume biofortified foods at the household level; only vulnerability, self-efficacy, and location were the most crucial elements at the school level. In addition, results demonstrated a positive willingness-to-pay a premium or acceptance of a lesser discount for biofortification. Furthermore, preference towards iodine biofortified foods was a function of protection motivations, severity, vulnerability, fear, response efficacy, response cost, knowledge, iodine status, gender, age. and household head. CONCLUSIONS: Results lend support for prevention of iodine deficiency in unprotected populations through biofortification; however 'threat' appraisal and socio-economic predictors are decisive in designing nutrition interventions and stimulating uptake of biofortification. In principle, the contribution is threefold: 1) Successful application of the integrated model to guide policy formulation; 2) Offer guidance to stakeholders to identify and tap niche markets; 3) stimulation of rural economic growth around school feeding programmes.